Investment Research General Market Conditions 20 September 2013

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1 Investment Research General Market Conditions 20 September 2013 Danske Daily Market movers today Euro area September consumer confidence is due for release. We expect an aboveconsensus improvement. Market overview 07:30 1 day +/-,% Tonight Fed's George and Kocherlakota speak. Both are non-voters but we will listen for comments that could cast more light on the reasoning behind the FOMC nonmove on QE tapering. With a fairly thin calendar today focus will mainly be on how to position for the German federal elections on Sunday. The outcome is unclear. It is not certain that FDP will get above the 5% threshold and even if it does the current coalition may not get a majority. Lengthy negotiations resulting in a CDU/CSU SPD grand coalition then seems to be the most likely outcome. An uncertain outcome may result in a slightly negative market sentiment but keep in mind that no matter what coalition eventually will be formed, Germany will remain pro-euro. Riksbank governor Ingves and deputy Skingsley take questions in an open hearing on monetary policy at the Riksdag Committee on Finance. For more on Scandi markets see page 2. Selected market news US equities fell after yesterday s rally on the back of the Federal Reserve s decision to refrain from cutting stimulus (tapering). There is a lot of uncertainty about the Federal Reserve s reaction function and how to interpret that the Fed is now more data dependent than before: how strong should economic data be before the Fed starts tapering? US rates rose yesterday and reversed some of the gains from Wednesday on the back of stronger data for the housing market. Asian stock markets rose as a weaker yen boosted Japanese shares. The economic recovery in the US is likely to strengthen the dollar versus the yen and this is seen as positive for Japanese stocks. USD/JPY is moving towards the 100-level again after a weakening of USD after the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. S&P500 (close) S&P500 fut (chng from close) Nikkei Hang Seng Note: * The itraxx Europe Index shows the spread development for the most liquid investment grade CDS contracts in the euro credit market. **The itraxx Europe Crossover show the spread development of the most liquid non-investment grade CDS contracts in the euro credit market. ***The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index shows the spread development for the most liquid investment grade CDS contracts in the US credit market. Source: Bloomberg 17:00 07:30 +/-, bp US 2y gov US 10y gov itraxx Europe (IG) itraxx Xover (Non IG) /-, % EUR/USD USD/JPY EUR/CHF EUR/GBP EUR/SEK EUR/NOK USD Oil Brent, USD Gold, USD Chief Analyst Jens Peter Sørensen jenssr@danskebank.com Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 4 of this report.

2 Scandi markets today At 10:00 CET Riksbank governor Ingves and deputy Skingsley take questions in an open hearing on monetary policy at the Riksdag Committee on Finance. Fixed Income markets The post-fomc session yesterday showed some interesting dynamics for EUR rates. Even though 10Y EUR rates opened more than 10bp lower (5y more than 15bp lower) compared to before the meeting, rates gradually increased during the day, closing not far from Wednesday s levels. Favourable data out of the US did nothing to alter this move and for longer tenors we are not far from Monday s opening level and so far unchanged levels for the week. Hence, market dynamics pointed to positioning still being bad and some participants utilised the FOMC move to turn their position. Today s session entails plenty of central bank speeches (ECB, Bundesbank, BoE and Fed) with the four Fed speeches being the most potential market movers. After the Federal Reserve blackout period ended at midnight we now have an opportunity to get more colour on the individual FOMC members thoughts on not scaling down asset purchases this month and very modest rate path projections. FX markets After the FOMC surprised the market on Wednesday night the US dollar has been under broad pressure. The FOMC has created a very attractive environment for carry trades and especially with signs of improving data from EM markets EM currencies should be able to benefit further after the summer sell-off. EUR/USD could also experience more shortterm upside, not least seen in relation to the many long USD positions in place and still improved data from the eurozone. Yesterday s retail sales out of the UK disappointed. It might be an early warning that the positive surprises out of the UK are about to run out. That, coupled with the current strong EUR sentiment, indicates that the GBP appreciation after Mark Carney disappointed the markets early August might be drawing to an end - at least the risk to GBP has now become much more two-sided. US S&P500 future Wed Fri Mon Tue Thu Fri US 10y gov yield Wed Thu Fri Tue Wed Fri Global FX EUR/USD (LHS) USD/JPY (RHS) Wed Thu Mon Tue Wed Fri There is not a lot to trade on for global FX markets, which will be waiting for the German election on Sunday. Scandi FX EUR/NOK is back to the level it traded before yesterday s Norges Bank meeting, underlining that Norges Bank once again delivered a Monetary Policy report with a dovish twist despite higher inflation and a weaker NOK. We still believe that EUR/NOK will edge slowly lower in the autumn EUR/SEK (LHS) EUR/NOK (RHS) Wed Thu Mon Tue Wed 7.81 Key figures and events Friday, September 20, 2013 Period Danske Bank Consensus Previous 6:00 JPY BoJ Kuroda speaks at Kisaragi-kai meeting 9:00 DKK Consumer confidence Net. Bal. Sep :00 DKK Retail Sales m/m y/y Aug 0.2% -0.6% -1.2% 10:30 GBP Public Finances (PSNCR) GBP bn Aug :30 CAD CPI m/m y/y Aug 0.1% 1.1% 0.1% 1.3% 16:00 EUR Consumer confidence, preliminary Net bal. Sep :30 USD Fed's George (non-voter, hawk) speaks 19:45 USD Fed's Kocherlakota (non-voter, dove) speaks Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets 2 20 September 2013

3 Today s market data: 20 September S&P500 Intraday, % STOCKS DJSTOXX50 Max 0.6 Max 1.9 OM XC Min Min OM XS OSE BX Grey line indicates closing of Danish markets DOW JONES NASDAQ 1 month 4.2% 1 month 3.8% S&P % Year-to-date 20.8% Year-to-date 9.0% NIKKEI (07:30) % FX & COMMODITIES EUR 17:00 07:30 +/- USD JPY day Max ## GBP month Min ## NOK Year-t-date SEK DKK CRB C R B, R aw PLN JPY day month 1.20 GBP month 0.17 Year-to-date 3.44 CHF Year-t-date YIELDS & INTEREST RATES Go ld, $ 1M future USD-Yields Intraday Spread, P o licy R ate 3M bp 17:00 07:30 +/-, bp 0.35 USD2Y USD10Y USD USD 10Y Max 0.4 Max 2.8 EUR USD 30Y Min 0.3 Min 2.7 GBP JPY 10Y DKK SEK :30(-1)* 17:00 +/-, bp NOK DEM 10Y USD2Y (lhs) EUR/USD Intraday USD10Y (rhs) Eurostoxx Intraday, % Grey line indicates opening of US markets :30 07:30 Close Close PLN DKK 10Y /- +/- -0.2% Oil, B rent, $ Industrials 525 SEK 10Y NOK 10Y % 0.8% 0.7% -0.3% 0.2% PLN 10Y * As of closing previous trading day 10Y Yield Spread to Germany USDJPYGBPFRF ITL DKKSEKNOKPLN US Yield Curve German Yield Curve ## M ax ## M ax ## M in ## M in ### USD2Y USD5Y USD10Y DEM2Y DEM5YR DEM10Y D-t-D +/-, bp (right axis) 07:30 (left axis) 1 month ago (left axis) D-t-D +/-, bp (right axis) 07:30 (left axis) 1 month ago (left axis) USD 17:00 07:30 +/- C redit spread, it raxx s. 11* Credit spreads Swap Spread, bp** :00 07:30 +/- 07:30 1 day 1 month USD 10Y Europe (IG) JPY 10Y HiVol Xover (N-IG) :30(-1)* 17:00 +/ EUR 10Y DKK 10Y Finan. Sr SEK 10Y Finan. Sub Sep Nov Dec Feb Mar May Jun Aug Sep NOK 10Y Non-finan itraxx Europe (IG) (left axis) itraxx Xover (Non IG) (right axis) * Ask price ** Ask price * As of closing previous trading day 3 20 September 2013

4 Disclosure This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S ( Danske Bank ). Analyst certification Each research analyst responsible for the content of this research report certifies that the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect the research analyst s personal view about the financial instruments and issuers covered by the research report. Each responsible research analyst further certifies that no part of the compensation of the research analyst was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations expressed in the research report. Regulation Danske Bank is authorised and subject to regulation by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and is subject to the rules and regulation of the relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where it conducts business. Danske Bank is subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority (UK). Details on the extent of the regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from Danske Bank on request. The research reports of Danske Bank are prepared in accordance with the Danish Society of Financial Analysts rules of ethics and the recommendations of the Danish Securities Dealers Association. Conflicts of interest Danske Bank has established procedures to prevent conflicts of interest and to ensure the provision of highquality research based on research objectivity and independence. These procedures are documented in Danske Bank s research policies. Employees within Danske Bank s Research Departments have been instructed that any request that might impair the objectivity and independence of research shall be referred to Research Management and the Compliance Department. Danske Bank s Research Departments are organised independently from and do not report to other business areas within Danske Bank. Research analysts are remunerated in part based on the overall profitability of Danske Bank, which includes investment banking revenues, but do not receive bonuses or other remuneration linked to specific corporate finance or debt capital transactions. Financial models and/or methodology used in this research report Calculations and presentations in this research report are based on standard econometric tools and methodology as well as publicly available statistics for each individual security, issuer and/or country. Documentation can be obtained from the authors upon request. Risk warning Major risks connected with recommendations or opinions in this research report, including as sensitivity analysis of relevant assumptions, are stated throughout the text. Expected updates Danske Daily is updated on a daily basis. First date of publication Please see the front page of this research report for the first date of publication. Price-related data is calculated using the closing price from the day before publication September 2013

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