Geotechnical Engineering in Offshore Wind - how can we contribute to lowering the cost of electricity? DGF Seminar, Gentofte, 1 st April 2014
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1 Geotechnical Engineering in Offshore Wind - how can we contribute to lowering the cost of electricity? DGF Seminar, Gentofte, 1 st April
2 Safety first Emergency exits Muster points First aid kits Reception Service point Coffee break stations In case of fire alarm Leave the building Do not use lift Go to muster points Wait for instructions
3 Geotechnical Engineering in Offshore Wind 1 st April 2014, Gentofte 11:30-12:00 Arriving and getting settled (Sandwiches are served) 12:00-12:15 Welcome to DGF seminar Session lead: Morten Albjerg Liingaard (DGF) Offshore Wind and Challenges ahead Tove Feld (Vice President, DONG Energy) 12:15-13:15 Session 1: Site Investigation Session lead: Michael Sienko (Rambøll) Geotechnical site investigations Jens Brink Clausen (GEO) Geotechnics moving forward Joek Peuchen (Fugro Engineers B.V.) Cable trenching engineering David Cathie (Cathie Associates) Discussion: Cost-effective site investigations in the future? 13:15-15:00 Session 2: Site Assessment and Input to Design Session lead: Niels Mortensen (NMGeo) Deriving characteristic soil parameters Influence of max/min dry density measurements on density index of laboratory testing sand samples Probabilistic approach to determining soil parameters From a certification perspective Impact of soil-structure interaction on turbine loading Kristine Lee Kaufmann (Rambøll) Lone Krogh (DONG Energy) Lars Andersen (AAU) Liv Hamre (DNV GL) Niels Jacob Tarp-Johansen (DONG Energy) Discussion: How can we improve site assessment and input for design? 15:00-15:30 Coffee Break 15:30-17:30 Session 3: Geotechnical Design Session lead: Ole Hededal (COWI) New directions in offshore axial pile design Richard Jardine (Imperial College) Future monopile design: where is the PISA project taking us? Alastair Muir Wood (DONG Energy) Jackets on Wikinger Potential of screw piles in offshore wind Anders Augustesen (COWI) Guy Houlsby (Oxford University) Discussion: Can new concepts and/or improvement of state-of-the-art design methods reduce CoE? 17:30-19:00 Session 4: Installation Session lead: Anders T. S. Andersen (Aarsleff) Installation of suction caissons for OWT's Tor Inge Tjelta (Statoil) Driveability assessment of large monopiles Per Grud (CP Test) Vibro-driving monopiles - a feasible installation concept for the future? Christian LeBlanc Thilsted (DONG Energy) Discussion: Installation in the future? 19:00-19:15 Seminar closure 19:15-21:00 Dinner and net-working
4 Offshore Wind and Challenges ahead Presentation at Danish Geotechnical Society Seminar Copenhagen, Tove Feld, 1 April 2014
5 25 years of experience DONG Energy has build 40% of all offshore wind farms in operation Current Offshore wind farms under construction: WODS (UK) BRK 1 (DE) incl. suction bucket jacket (demo) WMR (UK) GOW 1+2 (DE)
6 Wind Power 2020 Strategy Key objectives Decrease lost time injury frequency to a level below <1.5 by 2020 Reduce Cost-of-Electricity by 40% below 100/MWh 2 by 2020 ( 85/MWh) Generate ROCE of 12-14% by 2020, 6-8 % by 2016 Increase installed gross capacity from GW to 6.5 GW by GW YE2012; 2.1GW September UK market 2020 FID
7 5 key challenges for the offshore wind industry 1 Offshore wind is not competitive with other energy technologies 2 Sites move further from shore and on deeper water 3 Offshore wind industry is maturing but growth is dependent on supply chain development (scale, quality, cost) 4 Utilities are struggling to secure funding of future projects 5 No offshore wind industry HSE standards exist
8 Offshore wind industry needs to reduce LCoE while delivering projects further from shore and on deeper water Offshore wind is not competitive with other energy technologies Lifetime unit cost per MWh Offshore wind is more expensive than other commercial power generating technologies The cost of electricity need to be reduced in order for offshore wind to become competitive and long-term sustainable PV Solar Offshore Biomass Onshore CCGT Coal 2020 Sites move further from shore and on deeper water Depth Distance to shore UK Round 3 sites are far from shore German sites are on deeper water No technically and commercially proven deep water foundation concepts Supply of far-from-shore transmission solutions is heavily constrained
9 DONG Energy expects to reduce cost of electricity for offshore wind power significantly towards 2020 LCoE below 100 /MWh for offshore wind power /MWh* 160 Offtake price (UK) 2012 <100 CoE targets 2020 CoE target is: expected below 100 /MWh for investment decisions in 2020 based on a UK scope (i.e. including substations and offshore power cables) a present value measure of average cost per MWh for investment and operations CoE target requires: governments to ensure transparent planning, consenting and support regimes to ensure investment certainty continuous build-out rates and project flow, to secure: maturation of supply chain technical innovation and investments Walney offshore wind farm * Offtake price today is the average power price incl. ROCs and LECS received for UK-site Walney 2 in 2012.
10 Cost of electricity target includes investments until onshore transmission grid Over view of assets included in cost of electricity Potential HVDC station Transmission grid Onshore substation Export Cable Offshore Substation Array Cables Turbines National grid owner scope National grid owner scope National grid owner scope DONG Energy scope in The United Kingdom DONG Energy Scope in Germany DONG Energy scope in Denmark Target considered for country scope 100 /MWh for DONG Energy scope in The United Kingdom 10
11 Standardisation will drive down cost and improve safety & quality Standardisation: Cost Repeat effects Volume & Scale effects Safety Quality 11
12 Other industries have achieved great benefits from standardisation and modularisation Examples: Industrial track records Oil & Gas 20-30% improvement in value through 10-15% in direct cost savings on platform (e.g., procurement, engineering) 5-10% in overrun reduction on projects 5-10% via early delivery due to reduction in cycle time Combined Cycle Gas Power Plant start of the standardization Platform concept developed - 75% commonality between models on same platform Average 5% cost reduction every year Automotive Standardised, repeatable plant concept introduced in 1990's Cost of electricity reduced by 25-35% Throughput for commissioning of plant reduced to 28 months from 40 months
13 DONG Energy is committed to further maturing the supply chain Low supply chain constraints High supply chain constraints Onshore substation Export cables Offshore substation Array cables Foundations Turbines Limited supplier base for selected electrical components Construction delays Limited production capacities, manufacturers reluctant to invest in new production Long lead times Few financially strong suppliers Long design lead times High price of HVDC transmission; early financial commitment required Cable suppliers may favour export cable market which offer higher margin High risk; financially weak suppliers No proven deep water solution Limited number of experienced suppliers able to deliver sufficient volume and quality Constrained vessel capacity Limited number of experienced and financially strong offshore WTG suppliers Installation vessels for larger WTG to be developed 13
14 Geotechnical Engineering plays an important part in reducing CoE Several of the largest risks during project development is related to soil conditions Geotech and Geophys campaigns constitutes the single highest development costs in the early phases Foundation concepts are dependent on the soil conditions Foundation cost are largely driven by geotechnical conditions and calculations 14
15 The Industry need to be successful: Joint Targets and responsibility As marked leader Dong Energy is committed to driving the CoE agenda Cost reductions require volume and scale, we need the industry to be successful => joint targets on maturing industry and reducing costs As geotechnical society you need to understand and master project risk mitigation and cost effective designs The industry need to work together on R&D and industry standardisation Openness to knowledge sharing within industry (todays seminar) 15
16 Thank you for your attention hope you enjoy todays seminar
17 Geotechnical Engineering in Offshore Wind 1 st April 2014, Gentofte 11:30-12:00 Arriving and getting settled (Sandwiches are served) 12:00-12:15 Welcome to DGF seminar Session lead: Morten Albjerg Liingaard (DGF) Offshore Wind and Challenges ahead Tove Feld (Vice President, DONG Energy) 12:15-13:15 Session 1: Site Investigation Session lead: Michael Sienko (Rambøll) Geotechnical site investigations Jens Brink Clausen (GEO) Geotechnics moving forward Joek Peuchen (Fugro Engineers B.V.) Cable trenching engineering David Cathie (Cathie Associates) Discussion: Cost-effective site investigations in the future? 13:15-15:00 Session 2: Site Assessment and Input to Design Session lead: Niels Mortensen (NMGeo) Deriving characteristic soil parameters Influence of max/min dry density measurements on density index of laboratory testing sand samples Probabilistic approach to determining soil parameters From a certification perspective Impact of soil-structure interaction on turbine loading Kristine Lee Kaufmann (Rambøll) Lone Krogh (DONG Energy) Lars Andersen (AAU) Liv Hamre (DNV GL) Niels Jacob Tarp-Johansen (DONG Energy) Discussion: How can we improve site assessment and input for design? 15:00-15:30 Coffee Break 15:30-17:30 Session 3: Geotechnical Design Session lead: Ole Hededal (COWI) New directions in offshore axial pile design Richard Jardine (Imperial College) Future monopile design: where is the PISA project taking us? Alastair Muir Wood (DONG Energy) Jackets on Wikinger Potential of screw piles in offshore wind Anders Augustesen (COWI) Guy Houlsby (Oxford University) Discussion: Can new concepts and/or improvement of state-of-the-art design methods reduce CoE? 17:30-19:00 Session 4: Installation Session lead: Anders T. S. Andersen (Aarsleff) Installation of suction caissons for OWT's Tor Inge Tjelta (Statoil) Driveability assessment of large monopiles Per Grud (CP Test) Vibro-driving monopiles - a feasible installation concept for the future? Christian LeBlanc Thilsted (DONG Energy) Discussion: Installation in the future? 19:00-19:15 Seminar closure 19:15-21:00 Dinner and net-working
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