JEDI Capital Expenditure Update

Transcription

1 JEDI Capital Expenditure Update U.S. Offshore Wind Market and Supply Chain Workshop Presented by Aaron Smith National Renewable Energy Laboratory Brent Cooper Ocean & Coastal Consultants, Inc Navigant Consulting, Inc. D I S P U T E S & I N V E S T I G AT I O N S E C O N O M I C S F I N A N C I A L A D V I S O RY M A N A G E M E N T C O N S U LT I N G

2 Disclaimer Content of Report This presentation was prepared by Navigant Consulting, Inc. for the U.S. Department of Energy who supported this effort. The work presented in this report represents our best efforts and judgments based on the information available at the time this report was prepared. Navigant Consulting, Inc. is not responsible for the reader s use of, or reliance upon, the report, nor any decisions based on the report. NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. MAKES NO REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED. Readers of the report are advised that they assume all liabilities incurred by them, or third parties, as a result of their reliance on the report, or the data, information, findings and opinions contained in the report. March, Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved. Navigant Consulting is not a certified public accounting firm and does not provide audit, attest, or public accounting services. See for a complete listing of private investigator licenses. Investment banking, private placement, merger, acquisition and divestiture services offered through Navigant Capital Advisors, LLC., Member FINRA/SIPC. 1

3 Table of Contents» 1» Intro to JEDI 2» Component Based Cost Updates 2

4 Introduction to JEDI The Jobs And Economic Development (JEDI) Analysis Toolset Currently public Utility-Scale Wind Offshore Wind Natural Gas Coal Geothermal Ethanol Solar (CSP, PV) Marine Hydrokinetic (MHK) Transmission JEDI is used by industry, government, academics, advocates, consultants, and others. In process Water Biopower Small Wind 3

5 Introduction to JEDI The Offshore Wind JEDI Model was developed as part of the Navigant Consortium FOA awards. Annual Market Assessment Developed and demonstrated the NREL Offshore Wind JEDI Model Estimated gross national economic impact associated with various scenarios varying deployment levels and regional content Offshore Wind Supply Chain Study Characterized the existing workforce in adjacent industries Estimated employment from one-time investment in new ports and manufacturing infrastructure Fact Sheets Exploring Regional Impacts Mid-Atlantic, South East, Gulf Coast, and Great Lakes Available at Photo from Harland and Wolff Heavy Industry, NREL/PIX

6 Photo from istock/ Photo credit: Walt Musial / NREL PIX #26994 Photo from Gamesa, NREL/PIX16001 Introduction to JEDI JEDI analyzes economic development impacts at multiple levels. 1. On-site labor and professional services 2. Equipment production and supply chain Photo from Harland and Wolff Heavy Industry, NREL/PIX Induced economic activity (household purchases due to injection of income) 5

7 Introduction to JEDI JEDI requires definition of CapEx and OpEx, as well as assumptions about the origin of labor, materials and services. User-Defined Inputs Calculated Results Initial CapEx + Ongoing Operations Expenditures % Local Expenditures % State or Regional Expenditures % National or International Expenditures Initial Investment + Multiplier Effect Economic leakage The Navigant Consortium defined and estimated CapEx and OpEx for representative offshore wind project in order to provide users with default values 6

8 Reported CapEx (2012$/kW) Introduction to JEDI The model is prepopulated with default information; however, users have the option to enter project-specific information (highly recommended). JEDI input sheet with 2011 default values CapEx Trends for Global Offshore Wind Projects 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4, range spans >$3,000/kW 3,000 2,000 1, Operational Projects Projects Under Construction 7

9 Introduction to JEDI Scenario Baseline Assumptions Project Descriptive Data Project Location (i.e., nearest state) DE/MD Year of Construction 2018 Total Project Size - Nameplate Capacity (MW) 500 MW Number of Projects (included in Total Project Size) 1 Turbine Size (KW) 3MW Distance to Port 100 nm Distance to Point of Cable Landfall 25 nm Number of offshore substations 2 Money Value - Current or Constant (Dollar Year) 2011 Initial cost inputs were developed from bottom-up cost estimates for individual project elements, based on the expertise, experience, and opinions of the collective Navigant Consortium Core regional/domestic content estimates are based on what might be reasonable for initial projects assuming current levels of workforce specialization and capabilities, not necessarily what state policy stipulates in order to satisfy an explicit cost/benefit analysis 8

10 Average Water Depth (meters) Introduction to JEDI 2011 and 2014 Variations MW UMaine Demonstration Project (ME) - Proposed 2-MW WindFloat (Portugal) Project Descriptive Data Update Water Depth 25m 20m Foundation Type Jacket Monopile Export Cable Technology HVDC HVAC Number of Export Cables ,000-MW Deepwater Wind Energy Center (MA/RI) - Proposed 2011 JEDI Baseline 400-MW Global Tech (Germany) 170-MW BARD Offshore JEDI Baseline 288-MW Dan Tysk (Germany) Distance from Shore (miles) Operational Projects Projects Under Construction US Advanced Stage Projects JEDI Model Defaults 9

11 Table of Contents 1» Intro to JEDI» 2» Component Based Cost Updates 10

12 Photo from Talisman Energy NREL/PIX17885 JEDI Cost Comparison Turbines» Offshore wind turbine supply agreement (TSA) prices have been largely flat since 2011 Range from $1,600/kW to $2,400/kW Some evidence that Tier 1 suppliers are able to extract premium prices Advanced technologies (i.e., larger machine or rating and/or rotor diameter) also command a premium) Order size matters» TSAs generally include supply of rotor, nacelle, and tower Delivered to the staging port Eith a 5-year warranty» Turbine OEMs are offering year Management Operations and Maintenance Agreement (MOMA) options Provides price certainty to investors 11

13 JEDI Cost Comparison Foundation and Substructure» Material» Labor and Equipment» Transportation» Installation 12

14 JEDI Cost Comparison Electrical System» Array Cables» (2) Offshore Transformer Stations» 2011: Converter Station (1) HVDC Cable to Shore» 2014: (2) HVAC Cables to Shore 13

15 JEDI Cost Comparison Vessels» Foundation And Substructure Strategy» Turbine Strategy» Array Cable Strategy» Export Cable Strategy» Marine Transportation Strategy 14

16 JEDI Cost Comparison Soft Costs (Development and Financial)» Development Permitting Engineering (project and interconnection facility design) Legal Services Site Characterization Public Relations» Decommissioning bonding» Financial costs Due diligence Interest during construction Reserve accounts (maintenance, debt service): Bank fees» Sales Tax on Purchased Goods 15

17 CAPEX (2011 USD/kW) JEDI Cost Comparison Results $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 Soft Costs (development and financial) Transportation, Assembly, & Installation Electric Infrastructure Substructure & Foundation (labor) Substructure & Foundation (materials) Turbine» 2014 results driven by adjusted site characteristics and technology» Improved cost data in 2014 reduces uncertainty» 2014 CapEx is ~6% lower ($5,830/kW vs. $6,210/kW) 21% reduction in electric Infrastructure (NO HVDC) 22% reduction in Substructure & Foundation cost (monopile vs. jacket) 18% increase in Transportation, Assembly, and Installation Costs $ JEDI Defaults 2014 JEDI Defaults 16

18 Key C O N T A C T S Aaron Smith Lead Analyst NREL Offshore Wind Energy Program Direct: [email protected] Brent D. Cooper, P.E. Project Engineer & Diver Ocean & Coastal Consultants, Inc., a COWI Company Direct: [email protected] 2010 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy. 17