Bank of Ghana Monetary Policy Report. Financial Stability Report

Transcription

1 BANK OF GHANA E S T Bank of Ghana Monetary Policy Report Financial Stability Report Volume 5: No.1/2013 February Introduction Conditions in global financial markets have improved significantly evidenced by declining market risk indicators to levels last seen in early 2010, that is, before concerns were raised about euro area fiscal sustainability. The improvement has been the cumulative effect of fiscal consolidation efforts in major advanced economies as well as continued efforts by central banks to stimulate growth through further quantitative measures. On the domestic front, the asset base of the banking system expanded further and was funded mainly by increased deposit mobilisation and networth. 5.1 Credit Conditions Survey Loans or credit lines to Enterprises Banks credit stance on loans to enterprises improved during the January 2013 survey period (see Chart 1). The easing of credit stance reflected improved bank s expectations regarding the general economic environment and competition from other banks. Credit stance on loans to small and medium-sized enterprises was however tightened (see Chart 2). 80 Chart 1: Overall Credit Stance Net tightening NPR (%) Q4 08Q1 May-08 08Q2 08Q3 08Q4 09Q1 09Q2 Aug-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Net easing Overall Credit Stance for Enterprises BOG Monetary Policy Report Vol.5 No.1/2013 Page 1

2 Chart 2: Enterprise Credit Stance Net tightening 40 NPR (%) Q4 08Q1 May-08 08Q2 08Q3 08Q4 09Q1 09Q2 Aug-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Net easing Small and Medium Enterprises Large Enterprises Notes: (NPR) - Net percentage refers to the difference between the sum of the percentages for tightened considerably and tightened somewhat and the sum of the percentages for eased somewhat and eased considerably. The net percentages for the questions related to the contributing factors are defined as the difference between the percentage of banks reporting that a given factor contributed to a tightening and the percentage reporting that it contributed to an easing Loan Demand Demand for credit by enterprises with different sizes and maturities increased (see Chart 3b) in the survey period and was reflected through improved loan request for fixed investments, inventories and working capital (see Chart 3a). 60 Chart 3a: Usage of credit 40 NPR (%) Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Fixed Investment Inventories and working capital Debt restructuring Changes in terms on loans to corporates BOG Monetary Policy Report Vol.5 No.1/2013 Page 2

3 Chart 3b: Enterprise Demand for Credit Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Large Enterprises Short term Overall Demand for credit Notes: The net percentages for the questions on demand for loans are defined as the difference between the sum of the percentages for increased considerably and increased somewhat and the sum of the percentages for decreased considerably and decreased somewhat. 5.2 Loans to households for house purchase Banks maintained tighter credit stance on households loans for house purchase on account of their expected capital position, ability to access market financing and margin on riskier loans (see chart 4). Chart 4: Credit Stance on Households Loan demand Households demand for credit for mortgages remained unchanged for the past three surveys Consumer credit and other lending to households Household access to consumer credit and other lending improved at this survey round (see Charts 4 and 5). BOG Monetary Policy Report Vol.5 No.1/2013 Page 3

4 Chart 5: Measure of Tightening/Easing 5.3 BANKING SECTOR STABILITY ANALYSIS Developments in Banks Balance Sheet The banking sector s assets as at December 2012 went up by 23.5 percent compared with 26.8 percent expansion recorded in December Domestic currency denominated assets grew by 24.9 percent by the end of December 2012 compared with 25.1 percent growth for the same period in Foreign currency denominated assets also grew by 8.9 percent in December 2012 compared with a growth of 47.2 percent in December 2011 (see Table 1). Net loans and advances of GH billion represented a year-on-year growth of 40 percent in December 2012 compared with a slower growth rate of 19.7 percent in December Banks investment portfolio (bills and securities) reached GH 7.46 billion and showed an annual growth of 22.4 percent by the end of December 2012 compared with a growth of 32.4 percent at end 2011 (see Table 1). Table 1: Key Developments in Banks Balance Sheet BOG Monetary Policy Report Vol.5 No.1/2013 Page 4

5 Deposit liabilities which continued to be the main source of banks funding grew by 22.5 percent from GH billion in December 2011 to GH billion in December Total borrowings increased by 27 percent, from GH 1.78 billion in December 2011 to GH 2.26 billion in December 2012 (see Table 1). Banks paid up capital also increased by 31.4 percent to GH 2.17 billion by the end of December 2012, compared with the 20.8 percent growth recorded in December 2011 (see Table 1) Asset and Liability Structure of the Banking Industry The share of the banking sector assets and liabilities is shown in Table 2 below: Table 2: Asset and Liability Structures of the Banking Sector Net loans & advances share in banks assets of 42.9 percent in December 2012 indicated an increase from 37.8 percent recorded in December Investments (in both bills and securities) share in total assets however decreased to 27.4 percent in December 2012 from 27.6 percent in December Total deposits accounted for 71.9 percent of total liabilities in December 2012 compared with 72.5 percent in December Shareholders funds as a proportion of total liabilities inched up to 14.8 percent in December 2012 from 13.7 percent in December 2011, and shows that 14.8 percent of the banking sector assets are backed by equity. The share of total borrowings in total liabilities however declined to 8.3 percent at end 2012 from 8.1 percent at end 2011 (see Table 2) Share of Banks Investments Chart 6 shows the distribution of the banks investment portfolio between December 2006 and December BOG Monetary Policy Report Vol.5 No.1/2013 Page 5

6 Chart 6: Banks Investment (%) Banks investment in securities (long term investments) a s a share of total investment increased from 40.5 percent in December 2011 to 44.7 percent in December On the other hand, investment in treasury bills as a share of total investment declined from 57.4 percent in December 2011 to 53.3 percent in December 2011 (see Chart 6). Chart 7: Portfolio Allocation (%) Credit to deposits ratio increased from 58.5 percent in December 2011 to 66.5 percent in December Credit to deposit plus borrowings ratio also followed a similar trend. However, investments to deposit ratio remained unchanged at 38.1 percent in December 2012 (see Chart 7). 5.4 Credit Risk Credit Portfolio Analysis The banking industry s gross loans and advances of GH billion showed a growth of 27.9 percent in real terms at end 2012 compared with a growth of 7.7 percent recorded at end Private sector credit increased in real terms by 23.2 percent at end 2012 compared with 14 percent registered at end Credit BOG Monetary Policy Report Vol.5 No.1/2013 Page 6

7 to the households sector also grew in real terms by 29.3 percent to GH 2.08 billion at end 2012 compared with 24.2 percent growth recorded in the same period in 2011 (see Table 3). The composition of banks credit portfolio by economic institutions showed that public enterprises received the lowest proportion of banks credit and accounted for 5.3 percent of gross loans and advances at end 2012, compared with 3.4 percent recorded in Private enterprises loans accounted for 71.1 percent of gross loans at end 2012, down from 76.2 percent recorded at end The share of household loans in gross loans however increased marginally from 15.8 percent at end 2011 to 16 percent at end Government and public institutions credit constituted 7.6 percent of gross loans and advances at end 2012, compared with 4.5 percent registered at end 2011 (see Table 3). Table 3: Gross Loans and Real Annual Growth of Credit Chart 8: Sectoral Credit Allocation The sectoral distribution of credit showed that Commerce & Finance continued to receive the highest proportion of credit though in year-on-year terms, the share in total credit declined to 26.5 percent at end BOG Monetary Policy Report Vol.5 No.1/2013 Page 7

8 2012 from 27.1 percent at end The services sector s share in total credit also declined to 26.3percent at end 2012 from 26.9 percent at end Manufacturing, transportation, storage and communication, construction, electricity, water and gas sectors shares in total credit recorded some improvement, while the shares of agriculture, forest and fishing, mining and quarrying declined during the review period (see Chart 8). Off-Balance Sheet Activities Off-balance sheet items (contingent liabilities) grew by 7.8 percent in year-on-year terms to GH 3.64 billion at end 2012 compared with a growth of percent in the corresponding period of Its share in total liabilities however increased from 15.3 percent at end 2011 to 15.7 percent at end 2012 (see Table 4). The increase in off balance sheet exposures suggests an increase in trade finance over the period. Table 4: Contingent Liabilities Asset Quality The indicators of asset quality at end 2012 pointed to improvement relative to end The banking sector s non-performing loans ratio declined from 14.1 percent at end 2011 to 13.2 percent at end 2012 (see Table 5). The loss category of the total loans classification accounted for the greatest proportion of 60.8 percent of banks impaired loan asset, compared with substandard and doubtful categories which constituted 20.2 percent and 19 percent respectively. Loss loans category accounted for 62.2 percent of the total impaired loan asset, followed by substandard, 19.6 percent and doubtful loans, 18.1 percent in the same period of The ratio of NPL net of provisions to capital of 9.4 percent at end 2012 was an improvement over the December 2011 position of 10.4 percent. Loan loss provisions to gross loans ratio also improved from 7.7 percent to 6.4 percent over the same periods (see Table 5). BOG Monetary Policy Report Vol.5 No.1/2013 Page 8

9 Table 5: Asset Quality The private sector received 88.6 percent of total credit and accounted for 91.9 percent of the total nonperforming loans at end 2012 compared with 92.1 percent of total credit and a 91.2 percent of the total nonperforming loans at end The public sector s share of total credit was 11.4 percent and constituted 8.1 percent of non-performing loans at end December 2012; compared with 7.9 percent share of total credit and 8.8 percent of non-performing loans as at end 2011 (see Table 6). Table 6: Distribution of gross loans and NPLs by Borrower TYPE Mining and quarrying and commerce and finance sectors had the highest proportions of impaired loans to their gross loans. The proportion of impaired loans of the manufacturing sector decreased significantly from 22.1 percent in December 2011 to 14.6 percent in December Similarly, the proportion of impaired loans in other sectors also declined except construction and transportation, storage & communication which recorded relatively higher non-performing loans in December 2012 (see Chart 10). BOG Monetary Policy Report Vol.5 No.1/2013 Page 9

10 Chart 9: Sectoral Distribution of Credit and NPLs at end December 2012 Chart 10: Proportion of Loans Impaired in Each Sector (Sectoral NPLs) 5.5 Liquidity Indicators Liquidity (i.e. assets that can be converted into cash quickly without a significant loss in value) in the baking sector remained adequate in the period under review. The ratio of liquid assets to total deposits and liquid assets to total assets declined in terms of both broad and core measures at end 2012, reflecting relative pickup in the pace of credit expansion (see Table 7). The sector however was generally liquid. Table 7: Liquidity Ratios BOG Monetary Policy Report Vol.5 No.1/2013 Page 10

11 5.6 Capital Adequacy Ratio The Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) determines the robustness of the banking sector to withstand shoc ks to bank s balance sheet. The CAR as measured by the ratio of risk-weighted capital to risk weighted assets increased to 18.6 percent at end 2012 from 17.4 percent at end 2011, underpinned by a new entrant into the banking industry in December However, the ratio of risk-weighted assets to total assets declined from 68.8 percent at end 2011 to 67.6 percent at end 2012 (see Chart 11). Tier 1 CAR, which was 15.5 percent at end 2011, increased to 16.4 percent at end The CAR was well above the 10 percent prudential and statutory requirements, indicating a well capitalised banking system. Chart 11: Capital Adequacy Ratio Industry (%) 5.7 Profitability Highlights from the Banks Income Statement The banking sector s profit before tax improved by 59.9 percent to GH 1,211 million at end 2012 compared with a growth of 28.3 percent recorded in The industry s net profit after tax of GH million represented a growth of 62.9 percent at end 2012 compared with a growth of 30.1 percent registered at end 2011 (see Table 8) Interest Margin and Spread The ratio of gross income to total assets (i.e. assets utilisation) increased from 14.1 percent at end percent at end Banks interest spread increased from 9.7 percent at end 2011 to 10.3 percent at end 2012 (see Table 9) Return on Assets and Return on Equity The banking industry s return on assets (ROA) increased from 2.8 percent at end 2011 to 3.6 percent at end Similarly, return on equity (ROE) increased from 27.2 percent at end 2011 to 34.6 percent at end 2012 (see Table 9). BOG Monetary Policy Report Vol.5 No.1/2013 Page 11

12 Table 8: DMBs Income Statement Table 9: Profitability Indicators (%) Composition of Banks Income Interest income from loans continued to be the main source of income for the banking industry and constituted 47 percent of total income at end 2012 compared with 46.4 percent at end Investment income share in total income inched up marginally from 23.3 percent at end 2011 to 23.5 percent at end The share of income from fees and commission however declined from 18.1 percent at end 2011 to 17.7 percent at end 2012 (see Chart 12). Chart 12: Composition of Income (%) BOG Monetary Policy Report Vol.5 No.1/2013 Page 12

13 5.8 Operational Efficiency Indicators of operational efficiency at end 2012 broadly pointed to an efficient banking sector. Cost to income ratio declined to 78.7 percent at end December 2012 from 82.4 percent at end However, cost to total assets ratio increased to 12.1 percent at end 2012 from 11.6 percent at end Operational cost to gross income also declined from 59.5 percent in 2011 to 56.7 percent 2012 (see Chart 13). Chart 13: Efficiency Indicators 5.9 Banks Counterparty Relationships Developments in Banks Offshore balances & External Borrowing Banks offshore balances declined from a growth rate of percent in December 2011 to 5.55 percent in December 2012 (see Table 10). Banks placement of offshore funds also contracted by percent in December 2012 compared with a growth rate of percent percent in December Table 10: Developments in Banks Offshore Balances (%) Nov-10 Dec-10 Nov-11 Dec-11 Nov-12 Dec-12 Offshore balances as % to Networth Monthly Growth in Offshore balances (%) Annual Growth in Offshore balances (%) Annual Growth in Nostro Balances (%) Annual Growth in Placement (%) (3.84) (2.17) (11.17) 0.83 (3.97) (15.67) (28.37) (19.14) (10.66) (20.72) (20.13) BOG Monetary Policy Report Vol.5 No.1/2013 Page 13

14 Long-term external borrowings as a proportion of total external borrowing declined from 33.7 percent in December 2011 to percent in December 2012 while short-term external borrowings share picked up (see Chart 14). Chart 14: Distribution of Banks External Borrowings % of Total Borrowing Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Short-term borrowing Long term borrowing Foreign borrowings as a proportion of total borrowings continued to decline as banks sourced for more domestic borrowings. Classification of banks borrowings by source is provided in Chart 15. Chart 15: Classification of Banks Borrowing by Source % of Total Borrowing Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Foreign Borrowing Domestic Borrowing Conclusion and Outlook The banking sector is adequately capitalized, liquid and profitable. Financial soundness indicators measured in terms of earnings, portfolio quality, liquidity, and capital adequacy showed a relatively strong banking sector. The industry s outlook remains positive as non-performing loans trend downwards. Going forward, increased efforts at sustaining the decline in non-performing loans will further enhance the performance and stability of the sector. BOG Monetary Policy Report Vol.5 No.1/2013 Page 14

15 APPENDIX Appendix A1: Selected Indicators of the Banking Industry Appendix A2: Balance Sheet (Flow data) BOG Monetary Policy Report Vol.5 No.1/2013 Page 15