Commerzbank Well positioned for the upcoming challenges. Commerzbank German Investment Seminar 2012

Transcription

1 Commerzbank Well positioned for the upcoming challenges Commerzbank German Investment Seminar 2012

2 Commerzbank with major achievements in 2011 Op. Profit ( bn) -0,8 FY 09 1,0 FY 10 3,0 9M 11 Operating profit of core bank of 3.0 bn in 9M 2011 All major steps in integration project successfully completed after only 1,000 days Core Tier I ratio 10.0 Core Tier I Equity Tier 9.4 Significant improvement of capital structure Core Core Tier I Tier I 12/ /2011 ~ 2,3bn* Pre-funding ~ 6-8bn ~40% ~60% Remaining Funding plan 2011 fulfilled ahead of schedule done 2011 (as of funding need 31 Oct.) until end

3 Operating profit of Core Bank reached 3bn within 9 months MSB and CEE with strong operating profit within the first 9 months Further impairments on Greek sovereign debt and Public Finance de-risking weighed down ABF RWA reduced by 9% to 244 bn within 9 months, Core Tier 1 ratio stands at 9.4% as of 30/9/11 Broad range of measures targeted to meet capital requirements of the EU summit 2011 funding plan fulfilled, pre-funding for 2012 already started 2

4 9M operating profit of the Core Bank more than doubled Group Core Bank ** in m Q Q Q M 2011 Q Q M M 2011 Revenues before LLP 2,922 2,363 1,594 7,573 2,341 2,903 8,072 9,008 LLP , Operating expenses 2,185 2,030 2,036 6,220 2,010 1,876 6,096 5,724 Operating profit ,296 2,982 Net profit* ,020 1,372 2,961 9M revenues before LLP in the Core Bank increased by 1bn (+12%) Moderate LLP level of Core Bank in Q3, lower provisioning need in ABF (y-o-y) Overall cost base decreased y-o-y by 7% due to realization of cost synergies Operating profit affected by impairment on Greek sovereign bonds (Q3: 798m and Q2: 720m) and PF de-risking * Consolidated result attributable to Commerzbank shareholders ** incl. Others & Consolidations 3

5 Portfolio reduction focussed in Asset Based Finance PF portfolio development (EaD in bn) % Overall GIIPS sovereign exposure reduced by >20% within 9M Greek bond exposure halved (including the effect of impairments) Dec 2008 Dec 2010 Jun 2011 Sep 2011 GIIPS sovereign exposure (EaD 1 ) CRE portfolio development (EaD in bn) 2 86 Dec Dec % 64 Jun Sep 2011 in bn Dec 10 Mar 11 Jun 11 Sep 11 Greece Ireland Italy Portugal Spain Total ) incl. PF portfolios of EH and EEPK; incl. non impaired parts of Greek bonds in LaR and AfS 2) excl. default portfolio 4

6 All major steps in integration successfully completed within 1000 days June 2010 Brand migration: New Commerzbank presence under one new brand July 2010 August 2010 December 2010 December 2010 April 2011 Target structure: New organization structure implemented Harmonization release: Over 600 IT systems modified in preparation for client and product data migration Integration of investment banking completed Integration in all international locations accomplished Final step of IT-integration: Client and product data migration to Commerzbank IT systems Major steps in integration project successfully completed by end of May

7 Improved capital structure after capital increase in 2011 Capital ratios in % Core Tier I capital ratio Equity Tier I capital ratio Core Tier I 12/ Core Tier I 09/2011 Capital increase leads to improved capital quality with a strong shift towards equity capital Around 85% of Core Tier I capital is equity capital per 09/2011 vs. around 39% pre transaction Additional Liability measure completed in December 2011 with a one-time gain of more than 700 m 6

8 Funding need for 2012 reduced to up to 6 bn Funding plan 2012 in bn ~ 30bn ~ 22bn Due to continued balance sheet reduction majority of maturing capital markets liabilities will not have to be replaced in 2012 ~ 15bn Funding opportunities in 2011 were used for prefunding 2012 ~ 15bn Maturing capital markets liabilities Not to be refinanced ** Pre-funding done 2011 * Up to 6bn ~ 1/3 ~ 2/3 Remaining funding need until end 2012 Unsecured funding needs planned to be covered via private placements into Commerzbank s franchise Public issuance only if markets receptive and pricing attractive Funding need from 2013 onwards expected to go down even further Unsecured Funding Covered Bonds * Over 2bn Pre-funding 2011 exceeding upper end of plan ( 10-12bn) ** Asset reduction / temporary new business stop 7

9 Top priorities and action plans for 2012 defined 1 Further deleveraging as the primary answer to the economic downturn 2 Realization of cost synergies 3 Fulfilment of EBA requirements 8

10 We expect Germany to continue to outperform the Eurozone Current development German economy in a downswing, sentiment indicators are pointing on a significant deceleration of growth. Especially external demand has lost steam. Labour market miracle : level of unemployment remains significantly below pre-crisis level despite current downswing Number of corporate defaults still in a downward trend. Our expectation for 2012 Sovereign debt crisis will weigh on growth during the whole year. German economy will probably shrink in 2012 Q1 (as in 2011 Q4), followed by a slow recovery. In the most likely case the German economy will stagnate in Biggest downside risk is a uncertainty shock caused by an escalation of the sovereign debt crisis. Reasons for outperformance No bubbles in the housing market Low level of private sector debt Less need for fiscal consolidation Steadily improved competitiveness since start of EMU Germany benefits from strong demand for investment goods and its strong positioning in Asian markets and Emerging Markets in general DAX (average p.a.) Euribor in % (average p.a.) GDP (Change vs previous year in %) 6,190 6,586 6, , e Source: Commerzbank Economic Research e -0.4 Germany Eurozone e 2012e 9

11 De-leveraging as the primary answer to the economic downturn Commerzbank with proven track record Total Assets in bn Decrease of balance sheet total is significant ahead of original EU target of 900 bn RWA in bn Active management in reducing RWA leads to decrease of 28% since Dresdner Bank acquisition ~-40% % Dec 2008 Sep 2009 Sep 2010 Sep p Dec 2008 Sep 2009 Sep 2010 Sep

12 Top priorities and respective action plans for 2012 defined 1 Further deleveraging as the answer to the economic downturn 2 Realization of cost synergies 3 Fulfilment of EBA requirements 11

13 Cost synergies of 2.4 targeted to be realized after 2013 thereof 1.5 bn already accomplished Accumulated cost synergies in bn 2.4 All major steps in project to integrate Dresdner Bank successfully concluded in 2011 after less than 1,000 days Around 1.5 bn of full cost synergies reached in 2011 in line with plan ~1.1 ~1.5 Through the end of 2012 some 400 pairs of branches planned to be amalgamated Cost synergies of 2.4 bn p.a. are expected after p 12

14 Top priorities and respective action plans for 2012 defined 1 Further deleveraging as the answer to the economic downturn 2 Realization of cost synergies 3 Fulfilment of EBA requirements 13

15 EBA capital requirement mainly due to sovereign buffer for exposure in EH implementation will lead to Core Tier I ratio of more than 10.5% EBA capital requirement Capital ratios following EBA requirement * in % Total capital requirement according to EBA CB Group 5.3 bn 9.0 >10.5 Thereof: Sovereign capital buffers Fair value for EMU sovereigns as of 30/09/2011 CB AG 0.1 bn Eurohypo 4.8 bn Capital shortfall before sovereign capital buffer (target ratio of 9%) CB Group 0.4bn Core Tier I EBA targets Core Tier I to be reported * including Basel 2.5 effects 14

16 Measures to fulfill EBA capital requirements by June 2012 well underway RWA management Capital management Volume reduction outside core markets / plans to grow in primary franchise markets remain unchanged Risk transfer securitizations / portfolio sales Management of market and counterparty risk RWA efficiency, e.g. mapping of collateral Repurchase of selected hybrid equity instruments in December 2011 Restructuring of capital instruments Management of capital deductions Capital raising Sale of nonstrategic assets Sales, e.g. Dresdner Bank Headquarters in October 2011 BRE and Comdirect are considered strategic Retained earnings H1 result 2012 Cost management Capitalization of DTA * P&L effects have been taken into account 15

17 Commerzbank well positioned for the upcoming economic and regulatory challenges Commerzbank expects Germany to continue to outperform the Eurozone - Commerzbank benefiting from its strong home base Cost synergies expected further to reduce operating expenses Due to strong customer franchise and maturing assets in non-core portfolios low dependency on wholesale funding over the next years Continued focus on de-leveraging and de-risking Broad range of measures targeted to meet capital requirements of the EU summit 16

18 Disclaimer Investor Relations The information contained herein is not for release, publication or distribution in whole or in part in or into the United States. These materials do not contain or constitute an offer for sale or the solicitation of an offer to purchase securities in the United States. The securities of Commerzbank referred to herein have not been and will not be registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act"), and may not be offered or sold in the United States absent registration under the Securities Act or pursuant to an available exemption from, or in a transaction not subject to, the registration requirements of the Securities Act. This presentation contains forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements that are not historical facts; they include statements about Commerzbank s beliefs and expectations and the assumptions underlying them. These statements are based on plans, estimates, projections and targets as they are currently available to the management of Commerzbank. Forward-looking statements therefore speak only as of the date they are made, and Commerzbank undertakes no obligation to update publicly any of them in light of new information or future events. By their very nature, forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties. A number of important factors could therefore cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement. Such factors include, among others, the conditions in the financial markets in Germany, in Europe, in the United States and elsewhere from which Commerzbank derives a substantial portion of its revenues and in which it hold a substantial portion of its assets, the development of asset prices and market volatility, potential defaults of borrowers or trading counterparties, the implementation of its strategic initiatives and the reliability of its risk management policies. In addition, this presentation contains financial and other information which has been derived from publicly available information disclosed by persons other than Commerzbank ( external data ). In particular, external data has been derived from industry and customer-related data and other calculations taken or derived from industry reports published by third parties, market research reports and commercial publications. Commercial publications generally state that the information they contain has originated from sources assumed to be reliable, but that the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed and that the calculations contained therein are based on a series of assumptions. The external data has not been independently verified by Commerzbank. Therefore, Commerzbank cannot assume any responsibility for the accuracy of the external data taken or derived from public sources. Copies of this document are available upon request or can be downloaded from 17