Into Africa The continent s cities of opportunity

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Into Africa The continent s cities of opportunity"

Jessica Crawford
7 years ago
Views:

1 The continent s cities of opportunity Africa Business Group

2 Content Megatrends and Africa Why African cities? What economic opportunities do cities bring? : The continent s cities of opportunity Where to invest? Slide 2

3 Megatrends and Africa Slide 3

4 Africa is a continent where the megatrends are colliding together to catalyse a rapid and widespread transformation of the business environment Demographic and social change Shift in global economic power Rapid urbanisation Climate change and resource scarcity Technological breakthroughs Africa has the fastest growing middle class population in the world 313m people belong to the middle class in Africa (2010) Of the population of sub-saharan Africa live in a water scarce environment 40% 43% 50% of the world s population growth between now and 2050 is expected to come from africa 1 12 The number of African megacities by 2025 Mobile broadband growth rate Africa has the highest mobile broadband growth rate across the world Slide 4

belong to the middle class in Africa (2010) Of the population of sub-saharan Africa live in a water scarce environment 40% 43% 50% of the world s population growth between now and 2050

5 Global demographic shift The pace of change around the world will vary significantly Population change (4)% 26% North America Europe 20% Asia 2% Latin America 115% Africa 48% Oceania Slide 5

Population change 2013-2050 (4)% 26% North

6 Africa will house some of the largest cities in the world, including Lagos, Kinshasa and Abidjan Biggest urban population concentrations in 2015 Rhine-Ruhr London Los Angeles Toronto Paris Mexico City Chicago New York Guatemala City Abidjan Bogota Lima Belo Horizonte Luanda Jidda Lagos North Rhine-Ruhr Total Istanbul Teheran Cairo Baghdad Kinshasa Moscow Riyadh Karachi Ahm Kabul Lahore Pune Mumbai Bangalore Jaka Delhi Dhaka Calcutta Madras Beijing Tianjin Seoul Wuhan Vittagong Shenyang Shanghai Tokyo Hong-Kong Hanoi Manila Bangkok Ho Chi Minh City Bandung Urban population Sao Paulo 5 <8 million 8 <10 million 10 million Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs Santiago Buenos Aires Rio de Janeiro and by cities >1 million (52 African) 3+ megacities >10 million (12 African) 10 Mega urban regions >20 million Slide 6

Mumbai Bangalore Jaka Delhi Dhaka Calcutta Madras Beijing Tianjin Seoul Wuhan Vittagong Shenyang Shanghai Tokyo Hong-Kong Hanoi Manila Bangkok Ho Chi Minh City Bandung Urban population Sao Paulo 5 <8

7 Why African cities? Slide

8 Why are African cities important? Concentration of economic activity Drivers of Africa s growth story Centres of Communication At the forefront of social trends Slide 8

9 Growth of cities Future of Africa? Dubai 1991 Dubai 2005 Slide 9

10 Growth of cities Future of Africa? Shanghai 1990 Shanghai 2010 Slide 10

11 What economic opportunities do cities bring? Slide 11

12 Economic opportunities in cities driven by demands of the emerging middle class Consumer Technology Tourism Financial Services Infrastructure Slide 12

13 The continent s Cities of Opportunity Slide 13

14 The continent s cities of opportunity Regional index North Africa Cairo 1 Tunis 2 Casablanca 3 Algiers 5 West Africa Accra 6 Lagos Dakar 11 Abidjan 11 Casablanca Dakar Abidjan Algiers Tunis Accra Lagos Douala Kinshasa Luanda Kampala Kigali Cairo Addis Ababa Nairobi Dar es Salaam East Africa Nairobi Addis Ababa 9 Kampala 10 Kigali 13 Dar es Salaam 15 Antananarivo 1 Central Africa Douala 16 Kinshasa 19 Luanda 20 Lusaka Maputo Johannesburg Antananarivo Southern Africa Johannesburg 3 Lusaka - 14 Maputo 18 Slide 14

Ababa Nairobi Dar es Salaam East Africa Nairobi Addis Ababa 9 Kampala 10 Kigali 13 Dar es Salaam 15 Antananarivo 1 Central

15 The continent s Cities of Opportunity Overall index Casablanca Algiers Tunis Opportunity index Cairo 1 Cairo 1 Dar es Salaam Tunis 2 2 Lusaka Johannesburg 3 Addis Ababa 3 Nairobi Casablanca 4 3 Lagos Algiers Accra 5 6 Accra Lagos Kampala Nairobi 5 6 Accra Abidjan Nairobi Kigali Lagos Johannesburg 8 Addis Ababa Addis Ababa 9 9 Kampala Kampala Cairo Top ten cities in overall index sum of all 29 variables Slide 15

Accra 5 6 Accra Lagos Kampala Nairobi 5 6 Accra Abidjan Nairobi Kigali Lagos Johannesburg 8 Addis Ababa

16 The continent s Cities of Opportunity Overall index Casablanca Algiers Tunis Opportunity index Cairo 1 Cairo 1 Dar es Salaam Tunis 2 2 Lusaka Johannesburg 3 Addis Ababa 3 Nairobi Casablanca 4 3 Lagos Algiers Accra 5 6 Abidjan Accra Lagos Kampala Kigali Nairobi Dar es Salaam 5 6 Accra Abidjan Nairobi Lusaka Kigali Lagos Johannesburg 8 Addis Ababa Addis Ababa 9 9 Kampala Kampala Cairo Top ten Cities in opportunity index sum of 5 variables that indicate growth potential and overall index Slide 16

Kigali Nairobi Dar es Salaam 5 6 Accra Abidjan Nairobi Lusaka Kigali Lagos Johannesburg 8 Addis Ababa Addis Ababa 9 9 Kampala

17 The continent s Cities of Opportunity Overall index Opportunity index Cairo 1 Cairo 1 Dar es Salaam Tunis 2 2 Lusaka Johannesburg 3 Addis Ababa 3 Nairobi Casablanca 4 3 Lagos Algiers Accra 5 6 Accra Lagos Kampala Nairobi 5 6 Accra Abidjan Nairobi Kigali Lagos 8 Addis Ababa Addis Ababa 9 9 Kampala Kampala Cairo Accra, Lagos, Nairobi, Cairo, Addis Ababa and Kampala rank in the top ten of both index Slide 1

Lagos Kampala Nairobi 5 6 Accra Abidjan Nairobi Kigali Lagos 8 Addis Ababa Addis Ababa 9 9 Kampala

18 Where to invest? Slide 18

19 Current investor interest Top ten cities attracting FDI Casablanca Algiers Tunis Cairo Nairobi 1 Accra 2 Lagos 3 Johannesburg 3 Lagos Abidjan Accra Nairobi Cairo 5 Casablanca Lusaka Abidjan Tunis Algiers Lusaka 10 Johannesburg Slide 19

Johannesburg 3 Lagos Abidjan Accra Nairobi Cairo 5

20 Current state of development and growth potential Overall index Opportunity index Position Cities Cities Position 1 Cairo Dar es Salaam 1 2 Tunis Lusaka 2 3 Johannesburg Nairobi 3 4 Casablanca Lagos 3 5 Algiers Accra 5 6 Accra Abidjan 6 Nairobi Kigali Lagos Addis Ababa 8 9 Addis Ababa Kampala 9 10 Kampala Cairo Dakar Kinshasa Abidjan Johannesburg Kigali Douala Lusaka Casablanca Dar es Salaam Maputo Douala Luanda 16 1 Antananarivo Tunis 1 18 Maputo Dakar Kinshasa Antananarivo Luanda Algiers 20 Slide 20

Addis Ababa Kampala 9 10 Kampala Cairo 10 11 Dakar Kinshasa 11 11 Abidjan Johannesburg 12 13 Kigali Douala 13 14 Lusaka Casablanca 14 15

21 Key considerations when thinking of investing in Africa Current vs. Potential development Location Nature of opportunity Must-have or knock-out factors Time Scale Slide 21

22 Key themes from the report African cities need to be looked at through a different lens. Potential to grow should be considered along current level of development. The available data and analysis has limitations and only tells part of the story. There is no substitute for going to have a look Access to markets - middle class consumers in the city and the country/region to which it is a gateway - is more of a long term determinant of success than natural resources Infrastructure and human capital take time to develop but often critical to success. The upcoming fast developing opportunity cities face significant human capital and infrastructure challenges which limit their economics The role of the public sector policy makers (and related development of institutions) in guiding a city is important to the private sector. The building blocks are infrastructure, human capital but also security. Where this is in place, culture and society starts to flourish Slide 22

23 Appendix Slide 23

24 Overall summary table Sum of all 29 variables Rank Summary table Score Infrastructure Human capital Economics Society and demographics 20 Cairo Tunis Johannesburg Casablanca Algiers Accra Nairobi Lagos Addis Ababa Kampala Dakar Abidjan Kigali Lusaka Dar es Salaam Douala Antananarivo Maputo Kinshasa Luanda Slide 24

25 Opportunity index Overall Rank table result for comparison Opportunity indicator Score 15. Rate of real GDP growth 18. Ease of doing business** 19. Attracting FDI 23. City middle-class growth 29. Population growth 6 Dar es Salaam Lusaka Nairobi Lagos Accra Abidjan Kigali Addis Ababa Kampala Cairo Kinshasa Johannesburg Douala Casablanca Maputo Luanda Tunis Dakar Antananarivo Algiers Slide 25

26 Infrastructure index Rank Infrastructure Score 1. Cost of housing 2. Cost of business occupancy 3. Airport connectivity 4. Communications 5. Transport infrastructure 6. Road safety*. Water risk 8. Power 20 Cairo Tunis Addis Ababa Johannesburg Casablanca Dakar Kigali Algiers Antananarivo Nairobi Douala Abidjan Lagos Lusaka Accra Kampala Maputo Dar es Salaam Kinshasa Luanda Slide 26

27 Human capital index Rank Human capital Score 9. Health system performance* 10. Health Expenditure as % of GDP* 11.Physicians/Hospital bed density* 12. Literacy and Numeracy* 13. Graduates Enrolled* 20 Tunis Johannesburg Cairo Algiers Casablanca Kigali Kampala Accra Douala Nairobi Dar es Salaam Lagos Lusaka Addis Ababa Abidjan Dakar Kinshasa Luanda Antananarivo Maputo Slide 2

28 Economics index Rank Economics Score 14. GDP per Capita 15. Rate of real GDP growth 16. GINI coefficient* 1. Headquarters of the top 500 companies in Africa 18. Ease of doing business** 19. Attracting FDI 20. GDP diversity* 20 Casablanca Tunis Johannesburg Cairo Accra Lagos Nairobi Abidjan Dar es Salaam Lusaka Dakar Algiers Kampala Douala Addis Ababa Kigali Maputo Luanda Kinshasa Antananarivo Financial services strength* Slide 28

29 Society and demographics index Rank Society and demographics Score 22. Middle class market access 23. City middleclass growth 24. Crime 25. Political environment* 26. International Clout 2. Diversity 28. City scale 29. Population growth 20 Kampala Cairo Dar es Salaam Nairobi Accra Addis Ababa Lagos Lusaka Algiers Dakar Abidjan Kinshasa Maputo Johannesburg Tunis Luanda Kigali Casablanca Douala Antananarivo Slide 29

30 This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only, and does not constitute professional advice. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this publication, and, to the extent permitted by law, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, its members, employees and agents do not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. All rights reserved. In this document, "" refers to the UK member firm, and may sometimes refer to the network. Each member firm is a separate legal entity. Please see for further details CC-OS

Denied Boarding Eligibility

Denied Boarding Eligibility Option 1 Denied Boarding Compensation voucher may be used for a single Emirates operated two sector return journey between Dubai and the adjoining list of cities. (OR) Between Australia & New Zealand or