Corporate funding monitor 2015

Transcription

1 Corporate funding monitor 2015 The changing face of finance February 2015

2 2 Corporate funding monitor 2015 A global reaction to a global crisis Global corporate funding by source (USDtn) USD4tn USD3tn Loans Bonds USD2tn Equity USD1tn USD0tn Seven years on from the financial crisis and the value of loans made globally to corporates (excluding financial institutions and real estate companies) has finally exceeded the pre-crisis peak of USD3.87 trillion, totalling USD3.93tn in. The total value of finance, across loans, bonds and equity, provided to business globally also reached a new high water mark, exceeding USD6tn for the first time in. One could be forgiven for thinking this marks some form of return to normality for corporates around the world. However, the structural shift in how they access finance, highlighted in last year s Corporate Funding Monitor, has continued in. In truth, corporate balance sheets look very different. Thomson Reuters data show the type of financial products used has changed with the value of bonds issued by businesses increasing by 70% since to over USD1.50tn, despite a 10% year-on-year fall in. While loans remain the predominant source of funding for corporates globally, accounting for 63% of the total, it is not just banks that provide them. According to a recent McKinsey report the value of outstanding bank loans to non-financial corporates in advanced economies decreased by USD4tn between and the second quarter of to USD41tn. Other loans (those provided by non-bank lenders) accounted for a further USD29tn. The findings of the McKinsey report are in keeping with research conducted by Allen & Overy during into the prevalence of alternative finance providers, which showed that, while, on average, bank lending remains the single biggest source of funding among European corporates, alternative finance now accounts for 41% of their total funding mix. Allen & Overy LLP 2015

3 3 Total value of funding to corporates globally (USDtn) USD6.19tn USD5.92tn USD3.82tn USD4.54tn USD4.81tn USD5.46tn USD3.66tn USD5.03tn USD3.63tn USD4.27tn USD3tn-3.9tn USD4tn-4.9tn USD5tn-5.9tn USD6tn and over

4 4 Corporate funding monitor 2015 While alternative providers still largely play in the mid-market, the size of deals they are taking on has been steadily increasing from around EUR100 million EUR150m to around EUR300m-EUR350m. This trend will continue in In addition to increasing levels of bond and alternative finance, corporates also turned to new markets for their funding needs. Lack of liquidity in Europe sent borrowers to the deeper U.S. markets. This has led to convergence between both U.S. and European structures and loan and bond documentation across the Atlantic particularly in the leveraged finance market. A notable example of this is in the growth of cov-lite loans, which closely match bond structures as they are aimed at the same investor base. These investors tend not to want maintenance financial covenants that require them to monitor the business on a quarterly basis. One recent reaction to this increase in activity has seen U.S. regulators adopt a more stringent view of leveraged loans held by banks through the Interagency guidance on leveraged lending. This has further accelerated the move to alternative non-bank providers not caught by the revised guidance in the U.S. and has seen European banks ring fence their leveraged activity to avoid being caught by the guidance. This could be one explanation for the 15% fall in the value of leveraged loans in the U.S. between and. Europe has reacted to the erosion of its borrower base by looking to develop its own private placement market, with the Loan Market Association recently publishing standardised documentation for both loans and bonds. The International Capital Markets Association has also just put the finishing touches on its Pan-European Corporate Private Placement Market Guide, setting out common market standards and best practices to aid the development of the market. It is hoped this will assist in the development of a viable and attractive pan-european private placement market. Investors have also been reacting to the new landscape searching further afield for yield. This increased supply of credit saw the value of bonds in Africa/Middle East/Central Asia increase by a third in to USD20bn surpassing the pre-crisis peak of USD17bn for the first time. Banks, however, have been less inclined to commit as much, with loan values across the region dropping marginally over the past year, as regulatory capital issues constrain their ability to deploy their balance sheet in some of these markets. While bank lending remains the single biggest source of funding among European corporates, alternative finance now accounts for 41% of their total funding mix. Investors have also been attracted to the growth story in Asia, which has fuelled most of the nearly 55% growth in total funding to corporates in the Asia Pacific between and. The increase in intra-regional M&A activity has also seen equity funding increase 71% to USD270bn. This M&A activity has expanded the market and the pool of funding sources with real knowledge of the region and its relative risks. Allen & Overy LLP 2015

5 5 Global investment grade financing (USDtn) USD1.5tn USD1.2tn USD0.9tn Investment grade bonds Investment grade loans USD0.6tn USD0.3tn Another stark structural change that is yet to show any meaningful signs of reversal is that of the dynamic between bonds and loans in the investment grade space. While the total value of investment grade funding across these two products has still not surpassed its pre-crisis peak their relative values have changed dramatically. Investment grade loans have fallen from a pre-crisis peak of USD1.39tn to just USD748bn in. Over the same period investment grade bonds have ballooned from USD717bn to USD1.15tn last year. There is no doubt that the world of corporate finance has become more Corporate treasurers are becoming more adept at navigating the myriad options open to them in traditional financial markets. complex and more global. While volatility remains, markets are not staying closed for as long as they were previously. Corporate treasurers are becoming more adept at navigating the myriad options open to them in traditional financial markets. But the markets continue to evolve, adding new dimensions to their decision making matrix. As competition is increasing not only in the type of products that corporates choose, but the locations where they find funding and the players who ultimately provide it, banks have an increasingly pivotal role to play in facilitating access to this broader and more global market.

6 6 Corporate funding monitor 2015 Regional snapshots Africa/Middle East/Central Asia corporate funding by source (USDbn) While total funding to corporates in Africa and Middle East was up 9% last year to USD120bn, there has been a significant increase in the use of bonds (33% to USD20.09bn) and equity (up 83% to USD17.18bn) over the past year. Funding in the region remains nearly 30% below the pre-crisis peak of USD172.9bn. USD150bn USD120bn USD90bn USD60bn USD30bn USD0bn Loans Bonds Equity Equ Bon Loa Americas corporate funding by source (USDtn) USD2.5tn USD2tn USD1.5tn USD1tn USD0.5tn USD0tn Loans Bonds Equity The Americas saw a near record year in with a total USD3.21tn in funding to corporates, only very marginally Equitydown on s USD3.22tn. Funding in the Americas Bonds has been above the pre-crisis peak of USD2.63tn Loans since. The funding mix has also remained stable with loans up 2% and bonds down 3%, while equity, the smallest of all classes, was down 12%. Allen & Overy LLP 2015

7 7 Asia Pacific (excluding Central Asia and Japan) corporate funding by source (USDbn) USD450bn USD360bn USD270bn USD180bn USD90bn USD0bn Loans Bonds Equity Asia also had another record year with USD870bn of funding provided to corporates across the region. Funding in Asia has been Equity Bonds growing steadily since and has been above the pre-crisis peak of USD549bn Loans since. Over the past year there was a 71% increase in the value of equity to USD270bn, while the value of loans was also up by 12% to USD401bn. Europe corporate funding by source (USDtn) While funding in Europe remains below its pre-crisis peak of USD1.88tn with USD1.70tn raised in, this is up 21% on levels. Loans and equities were up by a similar amount (38% and 23% respectively) to USD1.10tn and USD180bn. However, bonds were down by 10% to USD413bn, but still well above pre-crisis levels of an average USD225bn in the five years leading up to. USD1.5tn USD1.2tn USD0.9tn USD0.6tn USD0.3tn USD0tn Loans Bonds Equity Equ Bo Loa

8 GLOBAL PRESENCE Allen & Overy is an international legal practice with approximately 5,000 people, including some 526 partners, working in 46 offices worldwide. Allen & Overy LLP or an affiliated undertaking has an office in each of: Abu Dhabi Casablanca London Rome Amsterdam Doha Luxembourg São Paulo Antwerp Dubai Madrid Shanghai Athens (representative office) Bangkok Düsseldorf Frankfurt Mannheim Milan Singapore Sydney Barcelona Hamburg Moscow Tokyo Beijing Hanoi Munich Toronto Belfast Ho Chi Minh City New York Warsaw Bratislava Hong Kong Paris Washington, D.C. Brussels Istanbul Perth Yangon Bucharest (associated office) Budapest Jakarta (associated office) Johannesburg Prague Riyadh (associated office) Allen & Overy means Allen & Overy LLP and/or its affiliated undertakings. The term partner is used to refer to a member of Allen & Overy LLP or an employee or consultant with equivalent standing and qualifications or an individual with equivalent status in one of Allen & Overy LLP s affiliated undertakings. Allen & Overy LLP 2015 CS1501_CDD-41090