Re-/Insurance impact due to power blackout Physical and non-physical BI / CBI events

Transcription

1 Re-/Isurace impact due to power blackout Physical ad o-physical BI / CBI evets

2 Overview UW impact due to blackout Space Weather Awareess Dialogue 25./ Bruxelles 2

3 Blackout sceario clusters Space Weather Awareess Dialogue 25./ Bruxelles 3

4 Potetial re-/isurace impact Power blackout scearios Route cause Utility Power blackout Isured utility utility Blackout evet Blackout evet Nophysical Physical A Property? Busiess iterruptio? Cotiget BI? Space Weather Awareess Dialogue 25./ Bruxelles Nophysical Physical B Busiess iterruptio? Cotiget BI? C Property? Busiess iterruptio? Cotiget BI? 4 D Busiess iterruptio? Cotiget BI?

5 Pre-coditios for power blackout Eergy market eviromet Ageig ifrastructure (e.g. protectio system failure millisecods differece betwee cotrol systems) Eergy market liberalisatio speculatio (e.g. physical supply warrat is ot eough i case of capacity overload) liquidity of power market 'political games' (e.g. artificial shortage of eergy supply) # of power suppliers (who could / does support others i case of serious power shortage) Eergy tradig might lead to additioal volatility i power grid. "Smart grid" risks (e.g. 'volatile' reewable power sources such as wid power) Privatisatio -> e.g. Califoria private utilities Productio efficiecy (o slack i systems) Cotrol via TCP / IP Iteret ad telecom etworks Iterdepedecies (+ are redudacies / - small effect ca have large coseq.) Star-like ets versus itegrated eergy ets Real estate market: ew buildigs (e.g. Miergie-Stadard eeds eergy) might have differet eergy requiremets Space Weather Awareess Dialogue 25./ Bruxelles 5

6 Blackouts o-liear effects Isurace loss Isurace limits Normally o or very limited isurace losses due to time deductibles? No-liear effects * 24h 48h *evet loss experiece oly for evets <24h 72h Space Weather Awareess Dialogue 25./ Bruxelles PD ad/or BI ivolved for e.g. the followig idustries Alumiium (e.g. smelter) Steel (e.g. furace coolig) Miig (e.g. pumps, air) Food & beverages (e.g. coolig, aimal farmig) Fiacial services (e.g. moetary trasactios) High-tech idustry wafer fab (e.g. filters) Petrochemical / Chemical idustry (e.g. storm surge Gulf of Mexico) Nuclear power plats [Cemet idustry] [Utilities] [Trasportatio] [Hospitals] [Commuicatios Telecom] Time 168h 6

7 Solar storms Cosequeces ad mitigatio measures Risk idetificatio: Electricity etworks are vulerable (e.g. geomagetically iduced currets through solar storms) Sceario: Geomagetic storm i NA / Europe Worst case sceario: Strog geomagetic storm over North America Risk assessmet: Qualitative ad quatitative risk sceario assessmet Potetial isurace losses Property (PD) at utility ad off premises isured Busiess iterruptio (BI) Cotiget busiess iterruptio (CBI) Risk mitigatio: Risk commuicatio: CRO Forum ERI Costructioal measures Adaptatio of uderwritig approach Space Weather Awareess Dialogue 25./ Bruxelles Regios with potetial blackouts Affected regios > 130 millio people; stregth as May 1921 evet (10x stregth of1989 evet, but less strog tha 1859 storm) 300 trasformer statios affected; trasformer supply time is about 12 moths Ecoomic cost: > USD 1 trillio Source: Natioal Academy of Scieces, US 7

8 Legal otice 2011 Swiss Re. All rights reserved. You are ot permitted to create ay modificatios or derivatives of this presetatio or to use it for commercial or other public purposes without the prior writte permissio of Swiss Re. Although all the iformatio used was take from reliable sources, Swiss Re does ot accept ay resposibility for the accuracy or comprehesiveess of the details give. All liability for the accuracy ad completeess thereof or for ay resultig from the use of the iformatio cotaied i this presetatio is expressly excluded. Uder o circumstaces shall Swiss Re or its Group compaies be liable for ay fiacial ad/or cosequetial loss relatig to this presetatio. Space Weather Awareess Dialogue 25./ Bruxelles 8