Predictive Modeling Data. in the ACT Electronic Student Record

Transcription

1 Predictive Modelig Data i the ACT Electroic Studet Record

2 overview Predictive Modelig Data Added to the ACT Electroic Studet Record With the release of studet records i September 2012, predictive modelig data from four behavioral idexes were added to the ACT Electroic Studet Record. A fifth idex, the Iterest Major Fit score, was also added to the studet record. The predictive modelig data elemets do ot predict whether a studet will eroll at a specific istitutio; rather, they predict four erollmet behaviors: The Mobility Idex predicts the likelihood of a studet erollig out of state. Mobility Idex scores rage from a low of 01 to a high of 99. The higher the score, the more likely the studet will eroll out of state. The Istitutio Type Idex predicts the likelihood of a studet erollig at a private college or uiversity. Istitutio Type Idex scores rage from a low of 01 to a high of 99. The higher the score, the more likely the studet will eroll at a private istitutio. The Selectivity Idex predicts the selectivity of the istitutio at which a studet is most likely to eroll. Selectivity Idex scores rage from 0.0 to 5.0, i icremets of 0.1. A higher Selectivity Idex correspods to a greater likelihood of attedig a more selective istitutio. The Istitutio Size Idex predicts the size of the istitutio at which the studet is most likely to eroll. Istitutio Size Idex scores rage from 0.0 to 4.0, i icremets of 0.1. A higher Istitutio Size Idex score correspods to a greater likelihood of attedig a larger istitutio. Percetile raks for each idex are ot reported o the studet score report; crosswalk tables showig percetile raks for all idex values will be available o the ACT website at 2

3 idex locatios Positio Locatios of the Idexes i the ACT Electroic Studet Record I Table 1 below are the positios of the five ew idexes i the ACT Electroic Studet Record: Table 1. Five ew idexes i the ACT Electroic Studet Record Field Positio Rage Mobility Idex Istitutio Type Idex Selectivity Idex with a implied decimal Istitutio Size Idex with a implied decimal Iterest Major Fit Score All data are umeric. If o predictios are made, the fields are set to blak. The full record layout is available olie at accuracy Accuracy of the Predictive Modelig Fields The four Predictive Modelig Idexes are built usig actual data o erolled studets ad are, therefore, very accurate. Every year, ACT seds a file of all ACT-tested studets i that year s high school graduatig class to the Natioal Studet Clearighouse, which matches the ACT file with its istitutioal erollmet records. More tha 3,300 colleges ad uiversities, erollig more tha 96% of all studets i public ad private U.S. istitutios, participate i the Clearighouse. As a result, ACT has iformatio o first-time college erollmets for most of the ACT-tested studets who go to college. Because ACT has data o which studets go out of state, which studets atted private istitutios, ad the selectivity ad size of the istitutios that studets atted, it is possible to develop predictive models that accurately predict those four behaviors. The accuracy of the Predictive Modelig Idexes relates directly to the self-reported iformatio provided by studets about their erollmet prefereces (type ad size of istitutio ad preferred distace from home to campus), as well as the types of istitutios they are cosiderig. Whe studets take the ACT, they ca choose to sed their scores to up to six istitutios i preferece order. ACT calls this mix of campuses (istate/out of state, public/private, selective/o-selective, large/small) the Choice Set. Through extesive research, ACT has determied that this Choice Set carries a predictive power that far outweighs other variables. Because the idexes reflect a studet s Choice Set i measurable ad objective ways, they provide quite a bit of iformatio ot oly o studet erollmet itetios but also o your competitio the other istitutios besides yours to which a studet seds scores. 3

4 mobility idex Predictig Out-of-State Erollmet The Mobility Idex predicts the likelihood that a studet will eroll at a out-of-state istitutio, usig (1) the studet Choice Set or campus mix (campuses to which studets sed scores); (2) ACT Composite score; (3) preferred distace from home to campus; ad (4) selected other variables. The campus mix comprises more tha four-fifths of the Mobility Idex model; this suggests that the studet score seder choices are itetioal, ad thus serve as the basis for accurate predictios. If studets sed scores to out-of-state istitutios, they are much more likely to eroll out of state. If studets do ot sed scores to out-of-state istitutios, they are very ulikely to eroll out of state. The score rage of the Mobility Idex is 01 to 99. The higher the score, the more likely the studet is to eroll out of state. The lower the score, the more likely the studet is to eroll istate. Table 2 shows the percet of studets i the 2011 ACTtested graduatig class whose Mobility Idex score falls withi specific rages. ACT research shows that oly about 20% of ACT-tested studets eroll out of state, so most Mobility Idex scores are quite low; 53% of all ACT-tested studets have Mobility Idex scores of 20 or lower. Studets with Mobility Idex scores of 20 or higher are more likely tha average to eroll out of state. Studets with very low scores o the Mobility Idex are lookig oly istate. Studets with very high scores are probably lookig oly out of state. Studets i the middle rages are probably lookig both istate ad out of state. Table 3 below shows the percet of studets i the 2011 ACT-tested graduatig class by ACT Composite score ad for a give rage of Mobility Idex scores. Studets with a Composite score below 24 ted to have lower Mobility Idex scores. Studets with a Composite score of 24 ad above ted to have higher Mobility Idex scores. Studets with ACT Composite scores of 24 ad higher are more likely tha average to go out of state. Table 3. Percet of 2011 ACT-tested graduates at combiatios of ACT Composite score rage ad Mobility Idex score rage Table 2. Percet of 2011 ACT-tested graduates i each Mobility Idex score rage Mobility Idex Score Rages Mobility Idex ACT Composite Score Rages Score Rages Percet i Each Rage (Natioal)

5 istitutio type idex Predictig Erollmet at a Private College or Uiversity The Istitutio Type Idex predicts the likelihood that a studet will eroll at a private college or uiversity by usig (1) the studet Choice Set or campus mix (campuses to which a studet seds scores); (2) ACT Composite score; (3) preferred istitutio type; ad (4) selected other variables. The campus mix comprises almost two-thirds of the Istitutio Type Idex model. Preferred istitutio type accouts for aother quarter of the model. Together, the campus mix ad preferred istitutio type accout for almost 90% of the model; this suggests that the studet score seder choices are itetioal, ad thus serve as the basis for accurate predictios. The score rage of the Istitutio Type Idex is 01 to 99. The higher the score, the more likely the studet is to eroll at a private college or uiversity. The lower the score, the more likely the studet is to eroll at a public college or uiversity. Table 4 shows the percet of studets i the 2011 ACTtested graduatig class whose Istitutio Type Idex scores fall withi specific rages. ACT research shows that oly about 20% of ACT-tested studets eroll at private istitutios, so most Istitutio Type Idex scores are quite low; 61% of all ACT-tested studets have Istitutio Type Idex scores of 20 or lower. Studets with Istitutio Type Idex scores of 20 or higher are more likely tha average to eroll at private istitutios. Studets with very low scores o the Istitutio Type Idex are probably lookig oly at public istitutios. Studets with very high scores are probably lookig oly at private istitutios. Studets i the middle rages are probably lookig at both public ad private istitutios. Table 5 below shows the percet of studets i the 2011 ACT-tested graduatig class by ACT Composite score ad for a give rage of Istitutio Type Idex scores. Studets with a Composite score below 24 ted to have lower Istitutio Type scores. Studets with a Composite score of 24 ad above ted to have higher Istitutio Type Idex scores. Table 5. Percet of 2011 ACT-tested graduates i combiatios of ACT Composite score rage ad Istitutio Type Idex score rage Table 4. Percet of 2011 ACT-tested graduates i each Istitutio Type Idex score rage Istitutio Type Idex Score Rages Istitutio Type ACT Composite Score Rages Idex Score Rages Percet i Each Rage (Natioal)

6 selectivity idex Predictig Erollmet by Selectivity of Istitutio ACT classifies colleges ad uiversities ito five categories of admissio selectivity: highly selective, selective, traditioal, liberal, ad ope. The Selectivity Idex predicts the selectivity of the istitutio at which the studet is likely to eroll, usig (1) the studet Choice Set or campus mix (campuses to which a studet seds scores); (2) ACT Composite score; (3) high school GPA; ad (4) selected other variables. The campus mix comprises more tha three-fourths of the Selectivity Idex model. ACT Composite score accouts for aother 14% of the model. Together, the campus mix ad ACT Composite score accout for 93% of the model; this suggests that the studet score seder choices are itetioal, ad thus serve as the basis for accurate predictios. Studets are very likely to sed scores to istitutios that are similar i selectivity to the istitutio at which they will evetually eroll. The score rage of the Selectivity Idex is 0.0 to 5.0. The higher the score, the more likely the studet is to atted a more selective college or uiversity. The lower the score, the more likely the studet is to atted a less selective college or uiversity. Table 6 shows the percet of studets i the 2011 ACT-tested graduatig class whose Selectivity Idex scores fall withi specific rages. Three-fourths of all of these studets eroll at istitutios i the Traditioal ad Selective categories. Istitutios which are highly selective or which are ope admissio will see most erolled studets distributed at the top or bottom of the Selectivity Idex scale. Istitutios of medium or traditioal Traditioal Selective Highly Selective selectivity ofte fid that they eroll sigificat umbers of studets from several selectivity bads. This, agai, may reflect a populatio lookig at several types ad sizes of istitutios close to home. Table 7 below shows the percet of studets i the 2011 ACT-tested graduatig class by ACT Composite score ad for a give rage of Selectivity Idex scores. Studets with a Composite score below 24 ted to have lower Selectivity Idex scores. Studets with a Composite score of 24 ad above have much higher Selectivity Idex scores. Table 7. Percet of 2011 ACT-tested graduates at combiatios of ACT Composite score rage ad Selectivity Idex score rage Selectivity Idex Score Rages Selectivity Category Table 6. Percet of 2011 ACT-tested graduates i each Selectivity Idex score rage Selectivity Idex Score Rages Percet i Each Rage (Natioal) Selectivity Category Ope Liberal ACT Composite Score Rages Ope Liberal Traditioal Selective Highly Selective

7 istitutio size idex Predictig Erollmet by Size of Istitutio For purposes of the Istitutio Size Idex, ACT classifies colleges ad uiversities ito four size categories of full-time udergraduate populatios: fewer tha 5,000, 5,000 9,999, 10,000 19,999, ad more tha 20,000. The Istitutio Size Idex predicts the size of the istitutio at which the studet is likely to eroll, usig (1) the studet Choice Set or campus mix (campuses to which a studet seds scores); (2) ACT Composite score; (3) preferred college size; ad (4) selected other variables. The campus mix comprises more tha four-fifths of the Istitutio Size Idex model. ACT Composite score accouts for aother 7% of the model. Together, the campus mix ad ACT Composite score accout for more tha 95% of the model; this suggests that the studet score seder choices are itetioal, ad thus serve as the basis for accurate predictios. Studets are very likely to sed scores to istitutios that are similar i size to the istitutio at which they will evetually eroll. The score rage of the Istitutio Size Idex is.01 to 4.0. The higher the score, the more likely the studet is to atted a larger istitutio. The lower the score, the more likely the studet is to atted a smaller istitutio. Table 8 shows the percet of studets i the 2011 ACT-tested graduatig class whose Istitutio Size Idex scores fall withi specific rages; 64% of studets eroll at istitutios i the medium ad large categories. Table 8. Percet of 2011 ACT-tested graduates i each Istitutio Size Idex score rage Istitutio Size Idex Score Rages Percet i Each Rage (Natioal) Istitutio Size Categories Istitutio Size Type <5,000 Small ,000 9,999 Medium ,000 19,999 Large >20,000 Very Large If your istitutio is very large or very small, you will see most erolled studets distributed at the top or bottom of the Istitutio Size Idex score rages. If your istitutio is medium size, you may fid that you eroll sigificat umbers of studets from several size bads. This, agai, may reflect a populatio lookig at several types ad sizes of istitutios close to home. Table 9 below shows the percet of studets i the 2011 ACT-tested graduatig class by ACT Composite score ad for a give rage of Istitutio Size Idex scores. Studets with a Composite score below 20 ted to have lower Istitutio Size Idex scores. Studets with a Composite Score of 24 ad above have much higher Size Idex scores. Studets with a Composite score of are evely distributed across all size categories. Table 9. Percet of 2011 ACT-tested graduates at combiatios of ACT Composite score rage ad Istitutio Size Idex score rage Istitutio Size Istitutio Size ACT Composite Score Rages Idex Score Rages Categories <5, ,000 9, ,000 19, >20,

8 relatioships The Relatioship of ACT Composite Score, Distace from Home to Campus, ad the Idexes ACT research suggests that academic ability is the primary determier of erollmet behavior. As ability levels rise, studets are more likely to eroll out of state, more likely to eroll at a private college or uiversity, more likely to eroll at a selective istitutio, ad more likely to eroll at a larger istitutio. Table 10 below shows the media miles from home to campus for erolled studets i the 2011 ACT-tested graduatig class by selectivity. Miles are provided at the 25th percetile, the media, ad the 75th percetile. Table 10. Miles from home to campus for 2011 ACT-tested graduates by admissio policy Admissio Policy Cout 25th Percetile Media 75th Percetile Highly Selective 111, Selective 267, Traditioal 308, Liberal 29, Ope 310, Missig 115, Because the idexes are determied so much by the Choice Set, it is importat to cosider how the Choice Set is iflueced by ACT Composite score as well as distace from home to campus. For may studets, the primary erollmet itetio is to eroll close to home. I fact, about half of all ACT-tested studets eroll withi 50 miles of home. Whe cosiderig colleges close to home, it is ot ucommo for a studet to cosider a wide variety of istitutios: 2-year/4-year, public/private, ad istitutios of varyig size ad selectivity. I cotrast, studets plaig to eroll farther from home or out of state ted to sed scores to istitutios that match their specific erollmet itetios. For example, a studet might look at several selective private istitutios out of state or several large public istitutios out of state. O the other had, it would be very uusual for a studet to sed scores out-of-state to a 2-year school ad a 4-year school or to a selective public school ad a o-selective public school. 8

9 data sheets Predictive Modelig Istitutio Data Sheets To use the idex data strategically, istitutios will wat to kow how predictive the idexes are for erolled studets at their istitutio. For most istitutios i the coutry, ACT is able to prepare a Predictive Modelig Istitutio Data Sheet that shows a istitutio s 2011 ACT-tested erolled studets i terms of the four idexes. To request a Predictive Modelig Istitutio Data Sheet for your istitutio, cotact EMS@act.org or your ACT regioal represetative. Here are a few geeral rules for iterpretig the data sheets: If the erolled percetages at your istitutio match closely with the atioal distributios for each idex, this likely meas that your istitutio is less selective ad that most of your erollmet comes from studets who live fairly close to your campus. The takeaway i this case is that may studets may be choosig your istitutio because of where your istitutio is located rather tha because of what your istitutio is (2-year/4-year, public/private, selective/o-selective, large/small). Studets may be choosig your istitutio because it is close to where they live, ad oe of their primary erollmet itetios may be to eroll close to home. I cotrast, more selective istitutios will usually show erolled studet distributios quite differet from the atioal distributios because they are erollig more studets from a greater distace ad those who are lookig for a specific size, type, ad selectivity of istitutio. 9

10 strategic use Usig the Idex Data Strategically Studet score reports set to colleges ad uiversities cotai more tha 265 data fields that ca be used for two strategic purposes: (1) assessig a studet s postsecodary erollmet itetios; ad (2) assessig a studet s level of iterest i your istitutio. Iformatio about studet erollmet itetios comes from the four idexes, studet erollmet prefereces for size ad type of istitutio ad preferred distace from home to campus, ad other variables such as highest degree expected. Iformatio about a studet s level of iterest i your istitutio comes from level of college choice (or where they sed their scores) ad how closely their iterests, eeds, ad prefereces match your istitutio. Iformatio i the score report o studet iterests, plas, ad eeds ca be used to persoalize commuicatios. Like other data i the ACT score report, the four Predictive Modelig Idexes provide you with data which ca be used to better target, segmet, ad commuicate with studets. The idexes represet poit-i-time erollmet itetios, ad they should always be viewed as startig poits. Ay subsequet iteractios that a istitutio has with a studet will icrease or decrease that studet s likelihood of erollig. However, as a startig poit, the iformatio from the idexes ca be used to determie how well a studet s erollmet itetios match the characteristics of your istitutio. A coveiet way to thik about segmetig is to assig every score seder to oe of four quadrats, as show i Figure 1 below. The vertical axis represets how desirable a studet is to your istitutio; the horizotal axis represets how well the studet s erollmet itetios (as measured by the idexes ad level of college choice) match your istitutio. Your istitutio will have target populatios that are very desirable ad a good match (upper left quadrat). O the other had, your istitutio may have target populatios that are very desirable but ot a good match at least whe usig the idexes as a startig poit to describe studet erollmet itetios ad these fall i the lower left quadrat. I that example, you ca use the idex scores to uderstad studet erollmet itetios ad the build strategies to move studets toward a better uderstadig of what your istitutio offers. Other studets may fall i the quadrat of low desirability ad poor match, ad you may choose to sped less time ad fewer resources recruitig those studets. Figure 1. Quadrats of studet desirability as matched to academic itetios More Desirable Good Match More Desirable Poor Match Less Desirable Good Match Less Desirable Poor Match 10

11 predictive modelig ad EOS The Predictive Modelig Idexes ad Studet Search through ACT EOS For the past three years, data from the four Predictive Modelig Idexes is icluded with every ACT Educatioal Opportuity Service (EOS) record that is dowloaded. EOS cliets caot use the idexes as search variables i ACT EOS, but each idex is closely related to a data variable that ca be used whe orderig. For example, ACT research shows that studets who say that wat to eroll withi 25 miles of home have very low Mobility Idex scores. As a result, ACT recommeds that istitutios do ot select the ames of studets i ACT EOS who wat to eroll withi 25 miles of home whe selectig the ames of out-of-state studets who live more tha 100 miles from the campus. Other strategies for usig the idex data strategically i ACT EOS are summarized i Usig EOS Search Criteria Related to Predictive Modelig Idexes.pdf, available olie at Table 11 below shows the positios of the four idexes (ad the associated percetile raks) i the ACT EOS Electroic Studet Record: Table 11. Positios of Predictive Modelig Idexes i the ACT EOS Electroic Studet Record Field Positio/Format Rage Mobility Idex (x.xx) Percetile Rak Mobility Idex (xx) Istitutio Type Idex (x.xx) Percetile Rak Istitutio Type Idex (xx) Selectivity Idex (x.x) Percetile Rak Selectivity Idex (xx) Istitutio Size Idex (x.x) Percetile Rak Istitutio Size Idex (xx) 11

12 fit scores Iterest Major Fit Score Effective with the release of studet records i September 2012, a Iterest Major Fit score was added to the ACT electroic record. Iterest-major fit is derived from two data elemets that are collected durig ACT registratio: (1) the studet s ACT Iterest Ivetory scores; ad (2) the studet s iteded major chose from a list of 294 college majors. The Iterest Major Fit score measures the stregth of the relatioship betwee the studet s ACT Iterest Ivetory scores ad the profile of iterests of studets i a give major. Iterest-Major Fit scores rage from a low of 01 to a high of 99. The higher the score, the better the iterest major fit. Research at ACT ad elsewhere suggests that if studets measured iterests are similar to the iterests of people i their chose college majors, they will be more likely to: persist i college remai i their major complete their college degree i a timely maer Iterest major fit clearly beefits both studets ad the college they atted: studets egaged i good-fit majors are more likely to stay i college, stay i their major, ad fiish sooer. Iterest profiles for majors are based o a atioal sample of udergraduate studets with a declared major ad a GPA of at least 2.0. Major was determied i the third year for studets i 4-year colleges, ad i the secod year for studets i 2-year colleges. 12

13 strategic use Recruitmet Strategies for Usig the Iterest Major Fit Score May istitutios build mail, , ad telephoe outreach strategies tied to studet iteded major. For example, these strategies may iclude mailig or ig iformatio about academic departmets ad colleges, or, i some cases, havig professors or studets cotact prospective studet majors by phoe. All such outreach strategies cost time ad moey. By combiig data from a studet s iteded major with a Iterest Major Fit score, campuses ca idetify studets who may have a stroger iterest i a particular major ad who may be more likely to eroll i a particular major. As a result, campuses could do more targeted outreach usig both iteded academic major ad iterest major fit ad, perhaps, save time, moey, ad resources. Advisig ad Retetio Strategies for Usig the Iterest Major Fit Score College retetio itervetios ofte iclude efforts to idetify studets more likely to drop out or ot make adequate progress toward a degree. Because ACT research suggests that good iterest major fit ca lead to positive retetio ad persistece outcomes, it follows that advisors ad retetio professioals ca use poor Iterest-Major Fit scores as a part of efforts to idetify at-risk studets or studets who could beefit from advisig ad career plaig itervetios by ACT, Ic. All rights reserved. The ACT is a registered trademark of ACT, Ic., i the U.S.A. ad other coutries