Major Market Indicators 1 Commodity Current Week Last Four Weeks Last 52 Weeks Totals
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1 Week of March 2 March 6, 215 Summary of Energy Market Developments Electricity peak prices dropped considerably in the eastern half of the U.S. last week and the March 4-5 snowstorms did not make up the losses. Prices at NEPOOL fell $77, to average $13/MWh, while prices at PJM-West sank $34 to average $66/MWh. Elsewhere, Texas was the bright spot, with ERCOT prices rising $13 to average $47/MWh. [ERCOT] expects to have sufficient installed generation capacity to meet power demand in the upcoming spring and summer seasons even though its summer peak demand expectation is above its previous record demand set in 211. In its preliminary seasonal assessment of resource adequacy, or SARA, for summer 215 released March 2, ERCOT forecast peak demand of 69,57 MW under historically normal weather conditions, higher than its all-time peak demand record of 68,35 MW set in August 211. It also forecast 76,968 MW of total resources available and a reserve capacity of 7,911 MW.... ERCOT's confidence in meeting power demand comes from its meteorological assessment.... ERCOT lists just one planned resource expected to provide new capacity this summer, Invenergy s natural gas-fired Goldsmith peaker project in Ector County [which] has a commercial operation date of June 215 [and] only one major baseload project, Panda Power Funds LP's gas-fired, 758-MW Temple II project in Bell County... expected to be commercially operational in August.... ERCOT said it did not anticipate changes to available generation capacity for the summer season due to compliance with the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule or Mercury and Air Toxics Standards. (SNL Energy s Power Daily March 3, 215) (Continued next page) Major Market Indicators 1 Commodity Current Week Last Four Weeks Last 52 Weeks Totals Electricity Production (bkwh) Total U.S ,14.59 Percent change from 214.8% 5.2% -.5% 121 F Street, NW Suite 11 Washington, DC Electricity Peak Prices ($/MWh) Averages ERCOT-North (TX) NEPOOL (Northeast) Palo Verde (Southwest) PJM West Real-time (Northeast) SOCO (Southeast) NA SP 15 (Southwest) Natural Gas Trends Henry Hub Price ($/MMBtu) Rig Count Spark Spreads 7,5 Btu/kWh) SOCO / Henry NA Oil Trends Cushing OK WTI ($/Barrel) Rig Count ,483 Uranium Spot Prices ($/lb U3O8) UxConsulting TradeTech
2 2 Energy Markets Report, March 2 March 6, Summary of Energy Market Developments (continued) Average nuclear plant availability fell three percent last week, to 88 percent. Quad Cities 1, Indian Point 3, and North Anna 1 shut down for refueling and maintenance outages. Sequoyah 2 shut down for four days to repair a current transformer and its main generator. Byron 1 shut down to repair one of its main power transformers, which ice had damaged and short-circuited. Prairie Island 2 shut down after a valve on its containment compressed air supply failed and water flowed into containment, raising humidity and causing a false fire alarm. Watts Bar returned to service after a brief maintenance outage. (Platts and company reports) Natural gas spot prices at the Henry Hub fell 1 cents last week, to average $3./MMBtu. The rig count fell by 12, to 268 rigs. EIA projects that U.S. total natural gas consumption will average 75.7 Bcf/d in 215 and 76.2 Bcf/d in 216, compared with an estimated 73.5 Bcf/d in 214. Growth is largely driven by demand in the industrial and electric power sectors, while residential and commercial consumption are projected to decline in 215 and 216. EIA projects natural gas consumption in the power sector to grow by 8.1% in 215 and by 1.9% in 216. Industrial sector consumption increases by 6.6% and 2.1% in 215 and 216, respectively, as new industrial projects come online, particularly in the fertilizer and chemicals sectors, and industrial consumers take advantage of low natural gas prices.... EIA expects monthly average spot prices to remain less than $3/MMBtu through May, and less than $4/MMBtu through the remainder of the forecast. The projected Henry Hub natural gas price averages $3.7/MMBtu in 215 and $3.48/MMBtu in 216. (EIA s Short-Term Energy Outlook March 1, 215) Energy Futures Markets 2 Months Ahead Commodity Apr 215 Sep 215 Mar 216 Electricity Futures ($/MWh) AEP Dayton MISO-Cinergy NYISO A PJM Natural Gas Futures ($/MMBtu) Henry Hub Crude Oil Futures ($/Barrel) Light Sweet Crude EIA Forecasts (Cost to Electric Utilities) Coal ($/MMBTU) Natural Gas ($/MMBTU) Fuel Oil ($/MMBTU) Electric Demand (Monthly, BkWh) Nuclear Plant Outages Refueling Date Shutdown Maintenance Date Shutdown Hatch 2 2/9 Watts Bar 2/21-3/1 Calvert Cliffs 2 2/16 Sequoyah 2 3/2-3/6 Brunswick 2 2/2 Byron 1 3/3 River Bend 2/23 Prairie Island 2 3/5 Catawba 2 2/28 Wolf Creek 2/28 Quad Cities 1 3/2 Indian Point 3 3/2 North Anna 1 3/7
3 3 Energy Markets Report, March 2 March 6, 215 Electricity Day Ahead Trends 35 West Hubs ($/MWh) East Hubs ($/MWh) 3 25 Palo Verde SP 15 NEPOOL MH DA LMP SOCO PJM West Real-time ERCOT-North Jan-Mar 214 Feb. 215 Cold Snap 1 5 3/7 4/2 4/28 5/24 6/19 7/15 8/1 9/5 1/1 1/27 11/22 12/18 1/13 2/8 3/6 3/7 4/2 4/28 5/24 6/19 7/15 8/1 9/5 1/1 1/27 11/22 12/18 1/13 2/8 3/6 Natural Gas Trends Crude Oil Trends Henry Hub Gas Prices ($/MMBtu) and Gas Rig Count 12-Month Average Gas Price Rig Count 1, Cushing OK WTI Oil Prices ($/Barrel) and Oil Rig Count Rig Count 1,6 1,4 1, Month Average Oil Price , /7 4/2 4/28 5/24 6/19 7/15 8/1 9/5 1/1 1/27 11/22 12/18 1/13 2/8 3/6 3/7 4/2 4/28 5/24 6/19 7/15 8/1 9/5 1/1 1/27 11/22 12/18 1/13 2/8 3/6 Uranium Price Trends EIA Outlook Trends 8 Uranium Prices ($/lb U3O8) 25 Fuel Cost to Electric Utilities $/MMBtu March UxC TradeTech 15 Coal 1 Fuel Oil Natural Gas 2 5 3/7 4/2 4/28 5/24 6/19 7/15 8/1 9/5 1/1 1/27 11/22 12/18 1/13 2/8 3/6 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16
4 4 Energy Markets Report, March 2 March 6, 215 Nuclear Plant Availability by NERC Region (Percent, Dash Represents 1%) 3 March March Region/Plant Region/Plant RFC SERC Beaver Valley Arkansas Nuclear One Beaver Valley Arkansas Nuclear One Braidwood Browns Ferry Braidwood Browns Ferry Byron Browns Ferry Byron Brunswick Callaway Brunswick 2 Calvert Cliffs Catawba Calvert Cliffs 2 Catawba 2 Clinton Farley D.C. Cook Farley D.C. Cook Grand Gulf Davis-Besse Harris Dresden Hatch Dresden Hatch 2 Fermi McGuire Hope Creek McGuire La Salle North Anna La Salle North Anna Limerick Oconee Limerick Oconee Oyster Creek Oconee Palisades River Bend 1 Peach Bottom Robinson Peach Bottom Saint Lucie Perry Saint Lucie Point Beach Sequoyah Point Beach Sequoyah Quad Cities 1 98 Summer Quad Cities Surry Salem Surry Salem Turkey Point Susquehanna Turkey Point Susquehanna Vogtle Three Mile Island Vogtle Waterford MRO Watts Bar Cooper Duane Arnold SPP/ERCOT Fort Calhoun Comanche Peak Monticello Comanche Peak Prairie Island South Texas Prairie Island South Texas Wolf Creek 1 NPCC FitzPatrick WECC Ginna Columbia Indian Point Diablo Canyon Indian Point 3 96 Diablo Canyon Millstone Palo Verde Millstone Palo Verde Nine Mile Point Palo Verde Nine Mile Point Pilgrim Seabrook U.S. Average
5 5 Energy Markets Report, March 2 March 6, 215 Expected Generating Capacity to Come Online ( ) 4 Phase 1 - Proposed Total Coal 1,25 1,5 1,675 4,425 Geothermal ,42 Hydro 1, , ,782 Natural Gas 5,153 4,981 1,47 7,225 4,114 2,498 1, ,65 Nuclear 5 Other Renewables ,428 Petroleum Solar 9,59 8,89 3, , ,911 Wind 19,381 14,237 1,27 4, , ,167 Total 37,762 3,96 26,321 14,233 5,588 12,71 1,64 1,12 13,36 Phase 2 - App Pending, Feasibility Study, Permitted Coal , ,393 Geothermal ,44 Hydro 11,969 7,92 5,93 3,55 2,1 1,222 31,763 Natural Gas 9,167 16,995 21,255 7, ,358 58,171 Nuclear Other Renewables ,648 Petroleum Solar 4,758 6,113 3,598 1,894 1,49 1, ,112 Wind 1,235 6,724 3,515 1,577 2,183 4,52 28,754 Total 38,354 38,63 36,161 15,914 6,123 9, ,282 Phase 3 - Under Construction, Site Prep, Testing Coal Geothermal Hydro Natural Gas 6,599 7,33 7, ,575 Nuclear 1,27 2,234 2,234 5,738 Other Renewables Petroleum Solar 1, ,546 Wind 1,71 1, ,9 Total 19,34 9,913 8,64 1,83 2,234 2,234 43,47 1 Sources: Electricity prices ABB Velocity Suite, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). Electricity data are peak prices and are for the day ahead except PJM West, which is based on real-time prices. Electricity production - Edison Electric Institute s Weekly Electric Output Report. Natural gas prices, spark spreads and oil prices - ABB Velocity Suite, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). Rig counts - Baker Hughes, Inc. Spark spreads are calculated for the listed hub as electricity price minus natural gas generation cost. The natural gas generation cost is calculated for the listed hub as hub price multiplied by the noted heat rate (7,5 Btu/kWh). Allowance prices ABB Velocity Suite, Cantor Fitzgerald. Electricity production and oil prices lag one week from rest of data. Arrows indicate the increase or decrease in price/production from the previous week. 2 Sources: Electricity, natural gas and crude oil futures - ABB Velocity Suite, NYMEX, Clearport Futures. Forecasts - EIA s Short Term Energy Outlook March Nuclear plant availability is a daily estimate of the reactor s thermal power output provided by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and captured by ABB Velocity Suite. Plant highlights are from Platts Megawatt Daily, Platts Nuclear News Flashes, and company announcements. The NERC Regions are: RFC - Reliability First Council, MRO - Midwest Reliability Organization, NPCC - Northeast Power Coordinating Council, SERC - Southeast Electric Reliability Council, SPP - Southwest Power Pool, ERCOT - Electric Reliability Council of Texas, WECC - Western Electric Coordinating Council. 4 Expected generating capacity is from ABB Velocity Suite. Each phase is separate and does not include plants from the other phases. Five nuclear units in phase three (Summer 2, 3; Vogtle 3, 4; Watts Bar 2) are under construction. Energy Markets Report is produced weekly by the Nuclear Energy Institute s Policy Development and Planning Division.
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