PJM Electric Market. PJM Electric Market: Overview and Focal Points. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Market Oversight
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1 PJM Electric Market: Overview and Focal Points Page 1 of 14 PJM Electric Market Source: Velocity Suite Intelligent Map Updated August 23,
2 PJM Electric Market: Overview and Focal Points Page 2 of 14 Overview Market Description: PJM Interconnection is a regional transmission organization (RTO) that coordinates the movement of wholesale electricity in all or parts of 13 states and the District of Columbia, an area that includes more than 51 million people. As of December 31, 29, it had installed generating capacity of 167,326 megawatts (MW) and over 5 market buyers, sellers and traders of electricity. In 29 demand peaked at GW on August 1, the lowest annual peak since the last transmission integration. Geography States covered: Reliability region: All or most of Delaware, District of Columbia, Maryland, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and West Virginia. Parts of Indiana, Illinois, Kentucky, Michigan, North Carolina and Tennessee. ReliabilityFirst Corporation (RFC) and SERC Reliability Corporation (SERC) Balancing authority: PJM. The balancing authority is responsible for managing the minute-to-minute supply/demand balance for electricity within its borders to assure reliability. Control zones: Allegheny Power Systems (AP) Atlantic Electric Power Company, Inc. (AECO) ComEd Delmarva Power and Light Company (DPL) Duquesne Light (DUQ) Metropolitan Edison Company (METED) PECO Energy (PECO) Potomac Electric Power Company (PEPCO) Rockland Electric Company (RECO) American Electric Power (AEP) Baltimore Gas and Electric Company (BGE) Dayton Power and Light Company (DAY) Dominion (DOM) Jersey Central Power and Light Company (JCPL) PPL Electric Utilities (PPL) Pennsylvania Electric Company (PENELEC) Public Service Electric and Gas Company (PSEG) Source: PJM 29 State of the Markets Report Updated August 23,
3 PJM Electric Market: Overview and Focal Points Page 3 of 14 Hubs: AEP GEN, AEP-Dayton, Chicago GEN, Chicago, Dominion, Eastern, N. Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, West INT, Western. RTO/ISO: PJM Interconnection (PJM) operates the region s power grid and wholesale electric market: Energy market: two-settlement (day ahead and real-time) spot market with locational marginal pricing (prices are calculated at each bus every five minutes) Capacity Markets Ancillary services markets Financial transmission rights (FTR) market Energy and capacity are also traded bilaterally through brokers and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). PJM 29 State of the Markets Report (and links to prior annual reports) Market Monitoring Unit: Monitoring Analytics, LLC External Market Monitor Generation/Supply : Marginal fuel type (29): Coal (74%) and natural gas (22%) Generating capacity (summer 29): 167,454 MW Capacity reserve (summer 29): 4,649 MW Reserve margin (summer 29): 32% Source: PJM 29 State of the Markets Report Updated August 23,
4 PJM Electric Market: Overview and Focal Points Page 4 of 14 Demand All time peak demand: 144,644 MW (Set August 2, 26) Summer Peak Demand (MW): 26: 144,644 27: 139,428 28: 13,1 29: 126,85 Peak demand change (28-29): 2.5% Decline Prices Annual Average Day-Ahead Price All Hours (MWh): PJM Western Hub - A basket of 19 buses from Erie PA to Washington DC (Derived from Energy Velocity data) 26: $5.7/MWh 27: $57./MWh 28: $69.88/MWh 29: $38.71/MWh Contact Information: For questions regarding the material in the PJM section please contact out staff at: oversight@ferc.gov Source: PJM 29 State of the Markets Report Updated September 7,
5 PJM Electric Market: Last Month s RTO Prices Page 5 of 14 Daily Average of PJM Day-Ahead Prices - All Hours $2 N Illinois Hub Price ($/MWh) $175 $15 $125 $1 $75 Eastern Hub Western Hub Dominion Hub $15 $125 $1 $75 $5 $ Day Rolling Average Price $5 $25 2/1/11 2/4/11 2/7/11 2/1/11 2/13/11 2/16/11 2/19/11 2/22/11 2/25/11 2/28/11 Source: Derived from Bloomberg PJM data. 1131
6 PJM Electric Market: RTO Prices Page 6 of 14 Daily Average of PJM Day-Ahead Prices - All Hours $2 $175 $16 $12 $8 $4 3 Day Rolling Average N Illinois Hub Eastern Hub Western Hub Dominion Hub $ Price ($/MWh) $125 $1 $75 $5 $25 Jan-1 Feb-1 Mar-1 Apr-1 May-1 Jun-1 Jul-1 Aug-1 Sep-1 Oct-1 Nov-1 Dec-1 Jan-11 Feb-11 Source: Derived from Bloomberg data. 148
7 PJM Electric Market: Eastern Bilateral Prices Page 7 of 14 Eastern Daily Bilateral Day-Ahead On-Peak Prices $3 Into Cinergy PJM West $15 $125 Monthly Average $25 Dominion Hub West New York $1 $75 Price ($/MWh) $2 $15 $1 Mass Hub $5 $ $5 Jan-1 Feb-1 Mar-1 Apr-1 May-1 Jun-1 Jul-1 Aug-1 Sep-1 Oct-1 Nov-1 Dec-1 Jan-11 Feb-11 Source: Derived from Platts data. 149
8 PJM Electric Market: Last Month s Eastern Bilateral Prices Page 8 of 14 Eastern Daily Bilateral Day-Ahead On-Peak Prices Price ($/MWh) $2 $18 $16 $14 $12 $1 $8 $2 $15 $1 $5 26 Monthly Average Into Cinergy PJM West West New York Mass Hub Dominion Hub $6 $4 $2 2/1/11 2/3/11 2/5/11 2/7/11 2/9/11 2/11/11 2/13/11 2/15/11 2/17/11 2/19/11 2/21/11 2/23/11 2/25/11 2/27/11 Source: Derived from Platts data
9 PJM Electric Market: Eastern Implied Heat Rates Page 9 of 14 Implied Heat Rates at Eastern Trading Points Weekly Averages 28, 24, 24, 2, 16, 12, 8, 4, 5-year Trend Implied Heat Rate (Btu/kWh) 2, 16, 12, 8, , Jan-1 Feb-1 East New York Zone J-Transco Zone 6 NY PJM West-Columbia Gas Appalachia West New York-Niagara Mass Hub-Tennessee Zone 6 Mar-1 Apr-1 May-1 Jun-1 Jul-1 Aug-1 Sep-1 Oct-1 Nov-1 Dec-1 Jan-11 Feb-11 Source: Derived from Platts on-peak electric and natural gas price data. 1138
10 PJM Electric Market: Generation Output and Temperatures Page 1 of 14 Electric Generation (GWh) Weekly Electric Generation Output and Temperatures Mid Atlantic Region 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 26-1 Range 211 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Warmer Temperatures than Normal (Degree Days) Heating Season Cooling Season Heating Season Source: Derived from EEI and NOAA data. 1113
11 PJM Electric Market: CI Generation Output and Temperatures Page 11 of 14 Weekly Electric Generation Output and Temperatures Central Industrial Region Electric Generation (GWh) 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 26-1 Range 211 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Warmer Temperatures than Normal (Degree Days) Heating Season Cooling Season Heating Season Source: Derived from EEI and NOAA data. 1114
12 PJM Electric Market: RTO Capacity Prices Page 12 of 14 PJM, NYISO and ISO-NE Capacity Prices /24 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/21 21/ / /213 8 $/kw-yr PJM RTO APS MAAC SWMAAC EMAAC Note: PJM RPM values are for Base Residual Auctions only. ISO-NE FCM results are based on preliminary FCM auction before pro-rationing and EAS adjustment. Source: Derived from PJM, NYISO and ISO-NE data Updated October 7, 29 DPL-South PS-North ISO-NE NYISO NYC NYISO LI NYISO ROS 1146
13 PJM Electric Market: Forward Price Curve Page 13 of 14 Electric Price ($/MWh) PJM West Electric Forward Price Curves and Implied Heat Rates $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 PJM West Columbia Gas Appalachia Gas Price ($MMBtu) 14, Implied Heat Rate 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, Mar11 May11 Jul11 Sep11 Nov11 Jan12 Mar12 May12 Source: Derived from Nymex data 152
14 PJM Electric Market: Physical & Financial Market Volumes Page 14 of 14 3 PJM Western Hub Forward and Swap Volumes ICE PJM Swaps Volume 25 ICE PJM Forwards Volume ClearPort PJM Swaps Thousands of GWh Jan-1 Feb-1 Mar-1 Apr-1 May-1 Jun-1 Jul-1 Aug-1 Sep-1 Oct-1 Nov-1 Dec-1 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Source: Derived from ICE and Nymex ClearPort data. ICE on-peak forward (physical) and swap (financial) volumes are for PJM s Western Hub and include monthly, dual monthly, quarterly, and calendar year contracts traded for each month. Nymex ClearPort on-peak swap (financial) volumes are for PJM s Western Hub traded by month. 15
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