Market Update. Natural Gas & Electricity. David Alicandri Vice President, Operations & Portfolio Management

Transcription

1 Market Update Natural Gas & Electricity David Alicandri Vice President, Operations & Portfolio Management May 2015

2 Safe harbor statement

3 Agenda Who We Are Natural Gas Market Update Electricity Update Questions

4 Who We Are A global independent firm turning energy into a smart, simple, and productive part of every business Over 7,000 client locations North America & Caribbean $2.5 billion under management Client spend $1M - $60M/year Still independent

5 Our expertise

6 Services We Provide Market Intelligence Commodity (Physical & Financial, Suppliers) Budget Carbon trading Invoice Analysis and Processing ($50M/yr, $575K found) Utility Liaison (Contracts, Balancing, Nominations, Pipeline) Asset Management (Storage, Transportation, Cogen) Sustainability and Conservation Advisory Incentive and Rebate Programs Government Reporting (397/11, 5yr plan) and Benchmarking Energy Informatics and Energy Management Platform (EMP)

7 WHO WE ARE Natural Gas Outlook 7 7

8 Natural gas outlook Strong growth in U.S. production has out weighed the below normal winter conditions, therefore not significantly affecting storage levels. Storage level Last year Storage Relatively Strong

9 Dawn Chicago Premium to NYMEX Coldest December to March Period in Chicago Back to 1872 (1) RANK AVERAGE YEAR DEC-MAR TEMP Dawn Chicago NYMEX (1) Source: Weatherbell Analytics, NOAA

10 North American Rig Count Oil Rig Count good indicator of Crude Oil production trend: Period U.S. Production: Up 30% Oil Rig Count: Up 23% 2015: Decline? Natural Gas Rig Count poor indicator of natural gas production trend: : U.S. Production: Up 10% Gas Rig Count: Down 30% 2015: Rig Down 15% - Production Flat by Year End?

11 Futures have Bottomed Key Level to Break Multi Year Support: Broken Source: CME

12 Natural Gas & Power

13 Natural Gas & Power

14 Exporting LNG In Sight Over the Medium Term US LNG exports are expected to reach 6.6 Bcf (10%) by another 2.7 Bcf from B.C.

15 World Natural Gas Prices June 2015

16 Natural Gas becoming a summer fuel

17 U.S. Natural Gas Supply/Demand Balance

18 Natural Gas Outlook Summary Cautious Bearish/Neutral short-term (2015) Storage came out of this winter at more reasonable levels Strong production to outpace demand Fracking process was 23% more efficient in 2014 Increased and sustained demand from gas fired electricity generators Summer $ USD/MMBtu unless strong cooling season 2015 expect to average $3.16 USD/MMBtu Longer Term Neutral/Bullish (2-5 years) US LNG exports to begin 2016 Many nuclear refurbishments & coal shutdowns scheduled over next 1-5 years will significantly increase demand for natural gas More natural gas consumption in summer than winter in 2017 Expect NYMEX at $ $5.00 USD/MMBtu in 2020

19 Natural Gas Recommendation Take advantage of currently low futures premiums Layer in hedges for Summer and Winter protection Ensure that that hedges fit within established risk tolerances and multi-year budgets Take advantage of utility turn back opportunities (Parkway to Dawn, Empress to Dawn) Be proactive not reactive.

20 Ontario Electricity Market Outlook

21 Ontario Power Market Explained Ontario s market is a hybrid Commodity is traded hourly via the market mechanism BUT The generators have guaranteed agreements in place March Market Price Example 3.3 cents/kwh This creates complexity The market prices rarely clears the true cost of power The Global Adjustment makes up the difference And you cannot (should not) hedge the Speaker Global Name Adjustment Cost of Generation Global Adjustment 10 cents/kwh 6.7 cents/kwh

22 Long Term Generation Contracts Distort Market Headline Activity Basic Template The Ontario Government entered into long term take or pay agreements Inherent fixed price built into the system Created counterintuitive market structure More supply = higher prices

23 Ontario Electricity Supply Mix By Fuel Type (Output)

24 Electricity Cost Forecast Ontario s LTEP (December 2013)

25 HOEP What A Ride! Winter 2014 Record Cold, Record High Prices, Record Demand The Polar Vortex spawned the coldest winter in 10 years (3x colder than normal) Electricity demand soared 5% to record levels Record High Prices - Average Electricity Price: 8 cents/kwh Summer 2014 Stay Cool The cool weather continued through the summer Weak demand lead to soft electricity prices Average Electricity Price: 2.51 cents/kwh Fall/Early Winter 2015 Prices remained relatively soft until the coldest November in the past 50 years arrived Followed by the coldest February on record Spring 2015 Lack of weather for the first month of spring and overall demand Average Electricity Price: 2.3 cents/kwh

26 Electricity Cost Breakdown - Ontario

27 Ontario Electricity Supply Mix vs. Demand

28 Natural Gas Prices Dictate HOEP Prices Follow The Leader

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30 IESO Independent Electricity Systems Operator (Ontario) MISO - Midcontinent independent System Operator (Michigan, Wisconsin) NYISO New York Independent Systems Operator (New York)

31 2015: HOEP: Looking ahead Jun15 Sep15 Cautious Bearish/Neutral short-term 3,000 MW (10%) of large cheap base load generation removed from the supply for retrofits. Additional retrofits have been moved to 2016 If Summer 2015 experiences above normal temperatures, be prepared for extreme pricing volatility GW of US coal retirements will hand natural gas the baton North American utilities will compete for natural gas in the summer to produce power and fill storage for winter will see 1,700 MW of nuclear power come down due to Speaker refurbishments. Name (staggered) Natural gas will be looked upon to pick up the slack.

32 Natural Gas Production Price vs. Ontario Electricity Price

33 Ontario Cogeneration Spark Spread

34 Electricity Market Recap More volatile due to reliance on natural gas fired generation. Natural gas generation sets HOEP approximately 36% of the time Natural gas volatility creates an opportunity Cheap base load power temporarily going offline More expensive longer term supply mix (Solar, Wind, etc.)

35 Electricity Recommendations Have Blackstone manage your electricity portfolio Continue to float HOEP until market fundamentals change Get papered with multiple electricity suppliers to take advantage of market opportunities (opportunity, not obligation to transact) Prepare for more short-term strategic transactions Cogeneration is a very attractive option Fantastic incentives

36 Overall Recommendations Work with a company like Blackstone to manage your energy portfolio Lift up every incentive stone to gain knowledge and a competitive advantage Combat the Global Adjustment by reducing your consumption or producing your own power Be prepared for the new Ontario carbon market Install a monitoring system for live pulse of your operations Be proactive not reactive.

37 Questions?

38 Thank you David Alicandri Vice President, Operations & Portfolio Management Tel: