Smart Industry, the Dutch version of the 4 th Industrial Revolution

Transcription

1 Smart Industry, the Dutch version of the 4 th Industrial Revolution Prof Dr Ir Egbert-Jan Sol TNO Industry - [email protected] Director Smart Industry Program Office, A initiative by FME, Min EZ, Chamber of Commerce, ICT-Nederland & TNO PHILIPS DRACHTEN 1

2 Internet of Things (IoT) Intel Edison (50$,2014) 500Mhz, 1GB, 32bit USB, WiFi 11an, Bt 20 Dig I/O, 6 Ana Input 13mW, 20mW (Bt), 35 mw Wifi Intel Curie (2015) Rasberry Zero ($5) Arduino (110 Euro kit+book) 1Gbps ARM11 512MB Rasberry Zero ($5) A micro-sd card A mini-hdmi Micro-USB 65mm x 30mm Image a internet connected (wifi) flexible electronics computer on a sticker for 10 Euro and another 10 euro for a ana/digi/physic sensors Image a factory floor with each equipment and all humans interconnect continuously with each other, the internet, and all parts on the shop floor The changing face of industry and society 2

3 LELY INDUSTRIES 3

4 Information as value driver leads to new business models in (traditional) industry Competition driven by Cost Competition driven byuseof Information Box s Selling Total costof ownership Customization Solution selling The Lease Car of the Year 0% Bijtelling Eat or to be eaten: shaking up eco-systems as suppliers become manufacturers and OEM (old manufacturers) become solution (service) providers Network Centric Production: information as main source for value creation 4

5 Smart Industry & T Nieuwsbrief (via website), Twitter, LinkedIn (smartindustry) MKB scans and regional sessions Events (4 feb national event, Apeldoorn, ESEF 18 maart, Utrecht, HM2016 april) juni Amsterdam, Industrial Technologies conference (EU) with fieldlab visits Ambassador (commercial partners, factories demonstrating their implementations) 10+ Fieldlab (regio s, branches, TNO/NLR/DLO/uni s, HBO) Skills & Social innovation (ROC/MBO/HBO life-long learning) 5

6 Key Enabling Technology of the EU commission Fieldlab example Holst Centre/Solliance jointly run by TNO, imec, (ECN, FZ Jülich, +) 6

7 Content 1. Introduction Smart Industry 2. Innovation Dynamics - theory 1. theory 3. Innovation Dynamics practise in diagnostics 4. Conclusion Value Creation: Added value = Price -Cost Price Added Value Cost Transport costs Assembly costs Price component 4 Price component 3 Price component 2 Price component 1 Service Delivery Costs today tomorrow? Hardware 7

8 Costs & price shrinks over time Price yesterday Added Value (yesterday) Cost today Cost tomorrow? Price tomorrow Added Value yesterday today tomorrow? What do we know on the price versus costs Price yesterday Cost yesterday Added Value? Price today Doing the same for less Cost today yesterday today tomorrow? 8

9 Performance - linear COST PERFORMANCE (e.g 1 MIPS CPU, or 1 Mbit RAM or 1 K Lines of Code or...) TIME Learning Curve - Double Logarithm Cost Unit (Log.) Learning rate = DECREASE OF COSTS PER UNIT WHEN NUMBER OF UNITS DOUBLES e.g. Number of products ( Assembled Aircrafts) (Airlines: passenger-miles) (Log) (10) (100) (1000) Cumulative nr of Units 9

10 Learning curve for solar PhotoVoltaic(PV) /Watt-Peak Silicon Thin Film GW p 100 GW p GW p Year GW p Module / W p , , ,20 GigaWatts worldwide 0,1 Learning curve follow the straight line down or die COSTS UNIT (LOGARITM.) 1: Loosing Spirit 2: Not Possible 3: New Technology (10) (100) (1000) CUMULATIVE UNITS Learning curve principle: If you double the produced units, cost per unit goes down (linear on double log) e.g. aircraft production, passenger-miles, Moore s law,? Which unit: Mbps, MB/day 10

11 Life Cycle of Products/services Market Size PLC (product life cycle) model of Boston Consultancy Group (1968) STAR CASHCOW Time Life Before & After the Product-Life Cycle Top Cost/unit Time T1: market price is 700 market leader ( ) at 1000 units = profit follower at ( ) at 200 units makes profit T1: 200,500 T1:1000,300 T1: 700 sales price 8000, cumulated number of units 11

12 Learning Curve & Product Life-cycle Market Size & Price Cost price (following learning curve) Market price Profit area STAR CASHCOW Cum. Number of Units & Time Life Before & After the Product-Life Cycle Top Cost/unit Time T1: market price is 700 market leader ( ) at 1000 units = profit follower at ( ) at 200 units makes profit T1: 200,500 T2: 500,400 T1: 700 T1:1000,300 T2: ,200 T2:8000,200 Time T2: market price 300 market leader at 8000 units,costs 200, that is follower at 500 units costing 400, that is : EXIT cumulated number of units 12

13 Price Innovatie of is het Creativiteit Doel: meer toegevoegde waarde creeren Cost Cost Added Value yesterday today tomorrow? Marketing High Technology Inside the Tornado Geoffrey A Moore Product Leadership + Operational Excellence Main Street Operational Excellence + Customer Intimacy Product Leadership Only Tornado Early Market Chasm Bowling Alley End of Life Product Leadership + Customer Intimacy 13

14 Where you make real money, life extenders From here only the 3 largest companies continue to make $ Price & size of market Life extenders $$COW TIME & (log total sum of units) Where your threats get serious: technology substitution Price & size of market CASHCOW TIME & (log total sum of units) 14

15 Product Life Cycles the Substitution Process Examples of technologies: CPU s hard disks mainframe, micro, dust computers relay switch, digital switch, packet switches peer-to-peer communication (post, phone, Internet-2) access LCD OLED CRT old technology current tech. saturation old tech. new technology Product Life Cycles New Price & size of market Current Old STAR CASHCOW focus on speed market leaders and market share (- cost reduction - life extension) STAR focus on speed & market share 15

16 Content 1. Introduction Smart Industry 2. Innovation Dynamics - theory 1. theory 3. Innovation Dynamics practise in diagnostics 4. Conclusion Kosten eerstelijnsdiagnostiek Eerstelijnsdiagnostiek (2010): 761 miljoen Tweedelijnsdiagnostiek (DBC): 2,350 miljoen Eerstelijnsdiagnostiek Totaal Bron: SAN, Nivel, NZA 16

17 Business case meer1 e lijnsdiagnostiek Netto besparing van ~900 M /j in NL mogelijk op M /j Extra kosten 1 e lijn diagnostiek Besparingen1 e lijn diagnostiek Netto Besparing Bron: Plexus 2010 Verschuiving van medische diagnostiek van de tweede naar de eerste lijn Nu 5 Jaar 10 Jaar Shift naar 0 e lijn Shift naar 1 e lijn 1 e lijnsdiagnostiek 2 e lijnsdiagnostiek 17

18 Eisen aan de tricorder Lijst van 17 essentiële meetwaardes geïdentificeerd Van temperatuur tot complexe bloedwaarden Betrouwbaar meetresultaat binnen vijf minuten Hoe ernstiger het gevolg, des te minder vals negatieven en des te meer vals positieven zijn toegestaan Betaalbaar en draagbaar koffertje: De dokterstas2.0 Voorbeelden van tricorder functies Intra Body imaging Ademhalingsritme Hartritme, Kerntemperatuur, Ademanalyse Aceton, Drugs, Ziektes, Longfuntie, Oppervlakte meting Niet invasieve meting Bloeddruk, SPO 2, ECG, Huidkanker, glucose, Vloeistof analyse Bloed, speeksel, urine, zweet Sample cartridge 18

19 Learning curve for smart devices (from mainframe to ambient push-pin computer) Log 10 (Volume (hxbxl) mm3) Mainframe 1959 Mini 79 PC-AT 84 Pentium 92 Notebk 97 PDA 2001 S-i-P 2010 Push-Pin Log 10 (Cum. Amount of devices) 6=1M, 9=1B Note: SiP= System in a Package (c) TNO Industrial Technologies, Egbert-Jan Sol, [email protected], = 1B 10x10x10 cm (1 liter) devices by = 10B 5x5x5 cm PDA/phones by today 11 = 100B 1 cubic (2,5 cm) devices by? = 1000 B 1x1x1 cm devices by? mm x 25 mm x 25 mm 1 mm thick x 125 mm x 125 mm From stacked toward laminated into a foil 19

20 Towards a LOW-COST SKIN TEMPERATURE PATCH Re-use electronics Recycle electronics Dispose electronics $100 Dispose electronics < $10 20

21 EXAMPLE FOIL INTEGRATION A COMPLETE TECHNOLOGY PLATFORM FOR SYSTEM-IN-FOIL DEVICES Foil from flex to conformable to stretch Heterogeneous integration Integration of (ultra-thin) Si chips Integration of thin-film components (battery, sensors,...) Interconnects Printed metals circuitry Foil lamination Microvia technology Thin film electronics - TFT circuits - Non-volatile memory - Diodes and rectifiers 21

22 Challenge in shifting health costs Hospital 2 nd line Ill, until GP Doctor 1 -st line Healthy, but a problem Person 0 st -line Today very costly basic diagnose personal monitoring Further 2++ spec. mini/macro diag. sys. stay long healthy Any incremental compact, smart health monitoring dev. improvement is diagnostic & healthy food very costly GP device hospital technology 2 nd line tech st line tech. 0-line personalized technology: health monitoring, healthy food saturation Marketing High Technology Inside the Tornado Product Leadership + Operational Excellence Main Street Geoffrey A Moore Operational Excellence + Customer Intimacy Product Leadership Only Tornado Early Market Chasm Bowling Alley End of Life Product Leadership + Customer Intimacy 22

23 Content 1. Introduction Smart Industry 2. Innovation Dynamics - theory 3. Innovation Dynamics practise in diagnostics 4. Conclusion Fieldlab example Holst Centre/Solliance jointly run by TNO, imec, (ECN, FZ Jülich, +) 23

24 Content 1. Smart Industry Internet of Thing, Big Data, technologies that changes business... Innovations goes so fast, you can t do it alone... Eat or to be eaten -> Smart Industry 2. Innovation Dynamics - theory learning curve, cash-cows, new technologies 3. Innovation Dynamics practise in diagnostics 2 e lijns diagno., -> 1e lijns diagno., -> 0 e lijns monitoring 4. Conclusion: Jules Verne was not right on space travel, Smart Industry & T Nieuwsbrief (via website), Twitter, LinkedIn (smartindustry) MKB scans and regional sessions Events Ambassador (apply via [email protected]) (commercial partners, factories demonstrating their implementations) 10+ Fieldlab (regio s, branches, TNO/NLR/DLO/uni s, HBO) Skills & Social innovation (ROC/MBO/HBO life-long learning) 24