Dirk Nyland - Chief Engineer BC Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure NRCan - CCIAD Presentation 9 September 2014

Transcription

1 Considerations for Addressing Climate Change Adaptation for Transportation Infrastructure in Highway Management, Design, Operation and Maintenance in British Columbia Dirk Nyland - Chief Engineer BC Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure NRCan - CCIAD Presentation 9 September 2014 Climate Change & Highway Infrastructure Risk and Adaptation 1. Extreme weather events 2. Risk assessment - Climate primer - language understanding - Climate projections - 3 hwy segments - Hydrologic assessment - 4 structures 3. Risk survey - 25 PIEVC vulnerability studies 4. Best practices 5. Technical circular outline 2 1

2 Climate Risk & Adaptation Context Emission reductions will not avoid impacts from climate change Adaptation to climate change involves preparing for economic, social and environmental impacts Historical climate patterns cannot be the sole basis of decisions; consideration of future climate change impacts is required Mean Annual Temperature BC 2080s Mean Annual Temperature BC 3 Climate Change in BC - Projected Warming 4 2

3 Extreme Weather Events & Infrastructure (Risk with Climate Change) Hagensburg Channel (Sept 2010) (Sept 2010) (Sept 2010) Bitter Creek Bridge Stewart (Sept 2011) 5 Extreme Weather Events, Risk Analysis & Adaptation Extreme weather events were experience recently at 3 BC locations: Coastal: (Sept 2010), Stewart (Sept 2011); Interior: Pine Pass -- $70M damage to transportation infrastructure (June- July 2011)* Risk analyses - focus on future extreme precipitation events at these locations Develop climate change adaptation considerations from risk analysis - for transportation: management, planning, engineering design, operations and maintenance activities 6 3

4 Extreme Weather Events, Risk Analysis & Adaptation Extreme weather events were experience recently at 3 BC locations: Coastal: (Sept 2010), Stewart (Sept 2011); Interior: Pine Pass -- $70M damage to transportation infrastructure (June- July 2011)* Risk analyses - focus on future extreme precipitation events at these locations Develop climate change adaptation considerations from risk analysis - for transportation: management, planning, engineering design, operations and maintenance activities 7 Atmospheric River Event (September 25, 2010) Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies CIMSS University of Wisconsin-Madison. 8 4

5 Extreme Weather Events at BC Locations Site Watershed Size km 2 Rainfall Intensity mm/24hrs* Return Period Rainfall Yr [estimated] Return Period Streamflow Yr [estimated] Bitter Creek (Stewart) Sept 2011 Medby Creek () Sept 2010 Fisher Creek (Pine Pass) June-July 2011 Fur Thief Creek (Pine Pass) June > BC Highway Risk Assessment Locations Stewart Pine Pass Yellowhead (Previous Study) Coquihalla (Previous Study) 10 5

6 Risk Evaluation PIEVC Protocol - five step process Latest Assessment Version used VA-10 May 2012 PIEVC - Public Infrastructure Engineering Vulnerability Committee 11 Climate Language Primer Involvement in climate change work requires understanding concepts, principles and language used across disciplines Work includes risk analysis, adaptation, design and operations, etc. Disciplines include climate scientists, engineers, hydrologists, facility & structure owners, etc. Developed Primer for language understanding 12 6

7 Climate & Infrastructure Information (PIEVC Step 2) Previous studies identified extreme precipitation as higher risk Focus on extreme precipitation & infrastructure (e.g.): Bridges Culverts Protection works Embankments/cuts Catch basins Road sub-base (Hagensborg) (Sept 2010) Pine Pass (June-July 2011) 13 Model Past and Projected Precipitation Location Indicator Past ( ) from Model Future ( ) from Model % Change Annual mm Stewart 25Yr mm/24hr Annual mm Yr mm/24hr Annual mm Pine Pass 25Yr mm/24hr

8 Winter Precipitation Future Change % 15 Monthly Precipitation Projection (Coastal)

9 Total Annual Rainfall Extreme High Rainfall Light Sustained Rainfall Heavier Sustained Rainfall Snow (Frequency) Snow Accumulation Rain on Snow Rain on Frozen Ground Rapid Snow Melt Snowmelt Driven Peak Flow Events Magnitude of Storm Driven Peak Flow Events Frequency of Storm Driven Peak Flow Events Ice / Ice Jams 09/09/2014 Risk Analysis Climate-Infrastructure risk analysis at 3 locations (future climate period ) Hydrologic risk modeling river flow 4 structures (future climate periods ; ) Fur Thief Creek Culvert Pine Pass (June-July 2011) Fisher Creek Bridge Pine Pass (June-July 2011) 17 Pine Pass Risk Assessment (PIEVC Step 3) (Risk = Probability x Severity) Infrastructure Components Above Ground Shoulders (Including Gravel) Curb - Asphalt 3 Ditches Embankments / Cuts Hillsides Protection Works Engineered Stabilization Works Structures that Cross Streams Retaining Walls Below Ground Road Sub-Base Detail Drainage (N/A) Drainage Appliances - Spillway Sub Drains (N/A) Catch Basins Grates (N/A) Culverts < 3 meters Culverts >3 meters Bridge End Fill rd Party Utilities Railway

10 Hydrologic Engineering Analysis (PIEVC Step 4) Bitter Creek Bridge Stewart BC (Sept 2011) yr Flow by Location (Model Averages) Model Output Location Average Change Relative to Historic Average Change Relative to Historic year Hourly Peak Flow (m 3 /s) (% Change to Historic)* Stewart Pine Pass

11 Vulnerability Analysis with Climate Change (PIEVC Step 4) (Discharge m 3 /s) Creek Load 1 Increase in Load from climate 2 Capacity 3 Vulnerability (L/C) Capacity Deficit (L-C) Fisher (PP) (Bridge) to to to Bitter (S) (Bridge) to to to Fur Thief (PP) (Culvert) to to to 77.9 Medby (BC) (Culvert) to to to Risk Survey 25 PIEVC Vulnerability Studies Every vulnerability assessment reviewed identified extreme precipitation events as risks (atmospheric rivers etc.) High quality, recent, locally relevant climate data and analysis and impacts of past climate events important Access to ensemble model output and analysis important Use data + expert judgement Terrain and combination events important to consider Bitter Creek Bridge Stewart (Sept 2011) Fisher Creek Pine Pass 22 11

12 Best Practices - Data Use up-to-date weather and climate data Establish extreme climate event monitoring programs Include extreme precipitation events in risk analysis Consider combinations and sequences of events Use relevant and robust climate change information Use climate projections based on ensembles of climate models 23 Best Practices - Personnel Apply quantitative data and/or professional judgement when appropriate Assign staff to monitor and manage climate change issues related to transportation engineering Establish multidisciplinary climate change and engineering adaptation review teams Work with qualified climate and meteorological professionals Work with qualified hydrology professionals and hydrotechnical engineers 24 12

13 Best Practices - Process Provide risk assessment tools and ensure staff are trained in their use Use risk management to address uncertainties Incorporate climate change adaptation measures into planning cycles Mandate adaptation to climate change considerations in ongoing activities Monitor data used in codes and standards 25 Best Practices - Design Increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation type events (atmospheric rivers, convective storms) can generate significant design issues for BC highways Require data and design instruments based on future climate (e.g. IDF curves) and apply sensitivity analysis and risk management Review climate change and adaptation design guidance from professional associations etc. Flow + debris-ice issues require increased maintenance/protection and/or adjusting capacity concepts of structures (i.e. bridge-clear spans; bridge/culvert freeboard, clearance) Assess criteria and costs to replace with larger structures (bridges, culverts, etc.) (Disaster financial assistance issues) 26 13

14 Technical Circular BCMoTI guidance for ensuring transportation engineering design is resilient and adapted to climate change Bridge Repaired Incorporate climate analysis (projections, etc.) depending on nature of work - project, design, lifespan Use location specific climate data and projections Use climate information sources such as PCICs web portal containing extensive BC climate information Submit design sheet with climate information consulted 27 Lessons Learned Plan and prepare for climate adaptation (new and existing infrastructure) Develop adaptation measures appropriate for infrastructure lifespan and location conditions Develop data, resources and subject matter experts Understand risks and uncertainties Incorporate adaptation into organizational practices Adaptation education for professionals, consultants, staff & students 28 14

15 Climate Change & Adaptation Risk Report will be posted on PIEVC website Thank You 29 15