2006

Transcription

1 Cheltenham 2006: Main Index Tuesday 14 March Anglo Irish Bank Supreme Novices' Hurdle Tuesday 14 March Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeplechase Tuesday 14 March Smurfit Champion Hurde Tuesday 14 March William Hill Trophy Handicap Steeplechase Tuesday 14 March Sporting Index Cross Country Steeplechase Tuesday 14 March Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Wednesday 15 March Royal & SunAlliance Novices' Hurdle Wednesday 15 March Royal & SunAlliance Steeplechase Wednesday 15 March Queen Mother Champion Steeplechase Wednesday 15 March Coral Cup Hurdle Wednesday 15 March Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Steeplechase Wednesday 15 March Weatherbys Champion Bumper Thursday 16 March Jewson Novices' Handicap Chase Thursday 16 March Ryanair Steeplechase Thursday 16 March Ladbrokes World Hurdle Thursday 16 March Racing Post Plate (A Handicap Steeplechase) Thursday 16 March National Hunt Steeplechase Challenge Cup Thursday 16 March Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle) Friday 17 March JCB Triumph Hurdle Friday 17 March Brit Insurance Novices' Hurdle Friday 17 March Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Friday 17 March Christie's Foxhunter Steeplechase Friday 17 March Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Steeplechase Friday 17 March Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle

2 Anglo Irish Bank Supreme Novices' Hurdle Tuesday 14 March Prize Money: 100,000 Distance : 2m 1/2f 13 renewals and 264 runners 4 year olds have it all to do (1-21). 7 year olds are year olds have the best record but You want either a 5 year old (4-109) or 6 year old (7-97) Horses that ran within 15 days struggle (1-32) Female horses are strong (3-8) because of a generous fillies allowance You must be last time out and ideally 1st last time out (8-101). Others were 0-77 Horses that were not on their penultimate race as well were 0-41 English Horses that had 5 or more career races are just Horses coming from a Handicap are 0-34 Horses that lost by 4 lengths or more last time out are just Horses coming from Class 4 (0-46),Class (1-61) underpreform. Class 3 last time is best (4-29) Ireland have the best record (7-64). Ireland had the 1-2 in '04 and '03 and only Best Mate + a Faller cost it them in 2002 and 2001 The Tolworth Hurdle is not a strong trial and is more so a trial for the Sun Alliance on the Wednesday Flat Breds are best despite NH Bred winners in 2003/ Last years winner was flat bred

3 Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeplechase Tuesday 14 March Prize Money: 140,000 Distance : 2m This race was unsuitable for Stats research.

4 Smurfit Champion Hurde Tuesday 14 March Prize Money: 340,000 Distance : 2m 1/2f 13 renewals and 200 runners Horses with less than 9 career starts are just 2 from 92 and both were Group 1/2 winners on the Flat 5 year olds have a terrible 0-36 record and 10 years or older are unproven (0-10) Horses beaten 4 lengths or more last time out are just 1-87 You want a last time out winner (11-70) and those not last time were 0-60 Previous Cheltenham form is important. 11 of the last 13 winners had it. Flat Bred horses have a better record than National Hunt bred horses and won 9 of the last 12 No Northern trained horse has won since Sea Pidgeon 24 years ago and many have been fancied The previous years Supreme Novice Hurdle winner has a poor record when trying to win this Horses at 12/1 and over were just Front Runners and Prominent Racers have the best record. Many Hold up "Place" but few win Horses coming from Haydock (0-20) underperform All 11 horses that came from a Novice race lost

5 William Hill Trophy Handicap Steeplechase Tuesday 14 March Prize Money: 80,000 Distance : 3m 1/2f 14 renewals and 201 runners Horses with less than 7 career starts are just 1-28 Horses with less than 3 runs this season were just 1-44 Horses aged 11 and older are just 1-40 Horses aged 6 are best opposed and havent won since 1994 You want a placing last time out (others 1-52) Horses coming from a Non Handicap underperform (1-39) From 29 Favourites and second favourites only 2 managed to win Horses coming from Grade 1 or Grade2 races last time out are 0-21 Horses that ran 80 + days ago are just 1-25 Horses that had ever worn headgear are 1-38 Crucial Grand National trial so be wary of horses looking laid out for Aintree Henry Daly's runners are always worth a second look despite not winning yet Martin Pipe has a 0-26 record (only 4 placed) and had last years beaten favourite Look away from horses carrying 11st or over. They are outscored by light weights.

6 Sporting Index Cross Country Steeplechase Tuesday 14 March Prize Money: 40,000 Distance : 3m 7f This race was unsuitable for Stats research.

7 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Tuesday 14 March Prize Money: 75,000 Distance : 2m 1/2f This race was unsuitable for Stats research.

8 Royal & SunAlliance Novices' Hurdle Wednesday 15 March Prize Money: 100,000 Distance : 2m 5f 13 renewals and 262 runners Horses coming from Warwick (4-19) or from abroad (3-29) are best 5 and 6 year olds dominate taking 12 of the last 13 renewals 4 year olds are Horses aged 7 + are just 1-59 Horses that ran within 15 days are 0-41 Horses that ran 80 or more days ago struggle (0-20) Horses that lost by 2 lengths or more last time out are Horses at 16/1 and over are just You have to have been 1st or 2nd last time out (Others 0-83) the last to do this was 1982 Horses coming from Class D (0-47) & Class E(0-53) are best avoided Horses that came from a 2m race underperform (1-55) Horses coming from a Handicap are 0-39 Only Gallileo (2002) won with less than 2 races that year and he had ran 3 times on flat 17 of the last 20 winners had ran at least 4 times over hurdles that season Martin Pipe hasnt won this since 1990 and his last 31 runners in this race lost Phillip Hobbs has had just 1 placed horse from 9 runners National Hunt Bred horses are best and dominate over Flat bred horses

9 Royal & SunAlliance Steeplechase Wednesday 15 March Prize Money: 140,000 Distance : 3m 1/2f 13 renewals and 163 runners Horses coming from Kempton fair very well(4-17) 5 yr olds (0-5) are unproven but all 5 ran well and the weight allowance is generous. 6 year olds struggle unless they are top class (Florida Pearl). Several have been beaten. 9 yrs + (1-24) underperform and the last winner was back in year olds (6-73) dominated in recent years (5 of last 6 winners) Horses must be last time out - Others of the last 31 winners were 1st or 2nd last time out Horses that ran at 2m 4f or less last time are 0-32 Horses that win the Feltham Chase (Boxing Day) havent won this since 1975 Flat Bred runners struggle. Only 3 were placed in the last 11 years

10 Queen Mother Champion Steeplechase Wednesday 15 March Prize Money: 290,000 Distance : 2m * Age - Ideally You need a horse aged between 7 and 10 years old. Horses aged 11 and older rarely have the Speed to win. Moscow Flyer achieved this last year but prior to that there had not been one since 1977 and prior to Moscow Flyer (who had already proved himself a champon) all previous runners wererun off their feet and well beaten. There has also not been a 6 year old winner in 32 Years so they need opposing with maximum confidence. * Betting Market -Such are the demands that this race asks of horses the Market really gets it wrong. The Front 3 in the Market usually provide thewinner and they have done so in 40 of the last 46 years. It is not a race for shocks. * Cheltenham Form - This is Vital. 17 of the Last 21 winners Had Finished either 1st 2nd or 3rd at a Previous Cheltenham Festival. From the 4 that had not done so 2 of them has won Quality races at Cheltenham at other times. * Recent Form - The Last 26 winners all Ran 1st 2nd or 3rd on their latest start. * Stamina - Despite the 2m Trip this is a race for certain stayers. From the last 16 winners 12 had previously won over asfar as 2.5 Miles and 14 of the 16 had won at Trips of further than 2 Miles.

11 Coral Cup Hurdle Wednesday 15 March Prize Money: 75,000 Distance : 2m 5f 12 renewals and 316 runners 5 year olds must be opposed (0-55) and only 2 of the 55 managed a place 6 and 7 year olds won the last 6 renewals and filled most of the placings Horses that ran 48 or more days ago are just 1-80 All 29 female horses lost. Claiming jockeys are just 1-61 Horses that were runner up last time have a 0-44 record Horses that had not won a race in their last 6 starts are just 1-67 Horses coming from a 16 + runner race last time are 1-55 Horses coming from a Novice race are 1-42 Course winners are 0-53 Horses with 21 or more career starts are too exposed (1-46) Horses with 5 or more runs this year have the wrong preperation (1-122) From the 12 renewals 8 of the winners had no more than 3 races that season Horses carrying 11st 1lbs or more underperform (2-61) Horses carrying 11st 4lbs or more underperform (1-37) Martin Pipe has had 3 winners and 3 runner ups in the race Nicky Hendersons record is poor but he did have the runner up last year Ireland won 4 of the 12 renewals 3 Recent winners have come from the Pierse Hurdle at Leopardstown. Horses with less than 6 career starts are just 1-63

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13 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Steeplechase Wednesday 15 March Prize Money: 50,000 Distance : 3m 1/2f 12 renewals and 235 runners 5 and 6 year olds are unproven (0-10) Horses aged 11 or more are 0-47 Only 2 horses aged 7 or under has won or placed in the last 12 years Horses that ran within 31 days are best (9-128) (others 2-98) All 18 female horses lost Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter last time out struggle (1-52) Horses coming from a Non Handicap are 0-27 Horses with less than 12 career starts are just 1-75 Horses carrying 11st 8lbs or more are only 0-24 You want a Horses carrying 10st 4lbs or under are strong (8-71) Only 3 horses in the last 20 years carried over 11st Stables with strong records are Pipe, Robert Alner, Kim Bailey and Nicky Henderson Irish horses have been poor (0-20) 4 of the last 6 winners were very lightly raced that year with with starts that year Horses coming from Chelterham (0-16) Haydock (0-12) Chepstow (0-11) Course winners had a 0-56 record

14 Weatherbys Champion Bumper Wednesday 15 March Prize Money: 40,000 Distance : 2m 1/2f 13 Renewals and 305 runners Horses with just 1 race have the best record 6 year olds are very poor (2-86) as 5 year olds (9-159) beat 4 year olds (2-86) 5 year olds have dominated since 1995 winning every year but last year when few were fancied Horses that ran within 15 days are 0-26 All 23 horses that had ran in Grade 1 orgrade 2 races before lost Irish Bred horses dominate. The last 12 winners were all Irish bred Northern trained horses are just 1-55 as Irish trainers dominate (W Mullins won 5 renewals) Horses that were not in the betting struggled (1-207) No British bred horse has made the in the last 8 years No Maiden has ever won this race 11 of the last 12 winners had won a race in a big field comprising of 15 runners or more Jockeys that claimed are 1-52

15 Jewson Novices' Handicap Chase Thursday 16 March Prize Money: 80,000 Distance : 2m 5f This race was unsuitable for Stats research.

16 Ryanair Steeplechase Thursday 16 March Prize Money: 150,000 Distance : 2m 5f This race was unsuitable for Stats research.

17 Ladbrokes World Hurdle Thursday 16 March Prize Money: 230,000 Distance : 3m 13 renewals and 170 runners Exposed horses struggle and any horse with 21 or more career starts are 0-30 Horses with 6 or more starts this year are year olds are 0-16 Horses aged 9 and over are 0-42 and the last winner aged 9 or more was in 1988 Horses that were 2nd/3rd last time out are best (9-42) but those not last time are 0-54 All 11 horses that came from a Novice race lost Horses beaten 12 lengths or more last time out are 0-74 Horses that had ran in Grade 1 class are best. Those that had not were 1-41

18 Racing Post Plate (A Handicap Steeplechase) Thursday 16 March Prize Money: 75,000 Distance : 2m 5f 13 renewals and 214 runners Horses that were 1st or 2nd last time out are strong (9-85) Horses that were not last time out are 0-51 Horses with less than 13 career starts are just 1-63 (Majadou a very well handicapped Pipe horse 1999) Less than 2 races this season is just 1-44 Horses that ran within 15 days are 0-33 Horses that ran 48 or more days ago are only 1-43 Horses coming from Cheltenham are 0-23 or Newbury 0-28 Horses coming from Warwick 2-11 or Sandown are 3-14 Irish runners are They last won this over 15 years ago Horses carrying 11st 1lbs or more are just 1-49 and only 5 were placed in the last 9 years Only 1 favourite has won this race in 22 years,a race famous for huge priced shocks Pipe has won 4 of the last 8 renewals No winner since 1993 ran in the Paddy Power Gold cup, or the Tripleprint Gold Cup on route here. In the last 10 years only 6 of the 40 possible "places" went to horses that were unplaced last time out 4 recent winners were "first season chasers".this type are interesting

19 National Hunt Steeplechase Challenge Cup Thursday 16 March Prize Money: 50,000 Distance : 4m 1f 11 renewals and 235 runners Less than 5 career starts is just 1-71 with the only winner back in 1992 Horses with 5-12 starts fair well. Horses with 13 or more runs just 2-54 Seasonal debutants are 0-29 Horses coming from Kempton (3-10) fair well 5 year olds (0-5) and 6 year olds (0-27) have so far found this too tough. Several 6 year olds went close though. Horses aged 9 or more are just 1-52 as horses aged 7 and 8 Dominated Horses that ran within 15 days were very poor (1-56) Horses that ran 48 or more days ago also struggled (1-38) Female horses underperformed (1-27) Your horse should be last time out (others 1-69) Ideally your horse should be 1st or 2nd last time out(9-99) Horses that were not 1st or 2nd in any of their last 6 races were 0-34 Horses coming from Class C, Class B, or Grade A,Grade 3 or Grade 2 class were 7-53 Horses coming from Class D or Class E were only so a clear Class divide exists Horses that had never ran in Class C before or higher than Class C were just 1-67 Jonjo O Neill is 4 from 14

20 Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle) Thursday 16 March Prize Money: 60,000 Distance : 3m Last Years race and this years race are run over the new course of 3 miles Prior to 2005 the race was run over 3m 1f 110yds so the race has shortened 1.5f 13 renewals and 322 runners Horses that had 21 previous races were too exposed and just 1-48 (shock 50/1 winner) Horses that had 5 or more starts this year are just Avoid 5 year olds. They are 0-30 Avoid horses aged 10 and over (0-33). Since 1991 hurdlers aged 10 or more are 1-83 at the festival 6 and 7 year olds won 16 of the last 22 renewals and filled 26 of the 36 win and place positions Avoid horses that do or have worn headgear (1-57) Horses that ran within 15 days are Horses with an 80 + days absence are 0-32 Female horses are 1-28 Horses that were 2nd last time out are 1-48 Horses that had not won in their last 6 races were 0-91 Course winners at Cheltenham are 0-44 Horses carrying 11st 5lbs or more struggle (1-41) Horses carrying less than 10st struggle (1-92) 11 of the last 13 winners had won over at least 3 miles Jonjo ONeill won 2 recent renewals. N Twiston Davies has a good recent record. M Pipe is just 1-61 in the race but last year had the 2nd -3rd and 6th

21 JCB Triumph Hurdle Friday 17 March Prize Money: 100,000 Distance : 2m 1f 13 renewals and 343 runners Debutants (1-35) and horses with 1 race (1-36) underperform Horses with 7 or more starts are 0-25 Horses with 6 + races this season are 0-50 Horses coming from Cheltenham (0-24) and Newbury (0-27) are poor Horses coming from Kempton (5-44) and Sandown (3-26) do well Flat Bred runners have a major advantage. 11 of the last 12 winners were Flat Bred. Horses that ran within 15 days were Horses that ran 80 + days ago were 0-17 Colts are just Last time out winners are best (10-138) Horses that ran at 2m 1f or further last time out are 0-74 Horses coming from a Handicap are 0-25 Horses coming from Class E (0-63), Class F/G/H (0-16) and Class B (0-25) struggle Maidens are 0-77 Newmarket horses are 0-28 andnorthern runners are 1-44 Horses that were beaten 8 lengths or more on their last start were The last 12 winners all ran in Febuary (11 of them won) Horses that run in the Finesse Hurdle at Cheltenham in January have a poor record

22 Brit Insurance Novices' Hurdle Friday 17 March Prize Money: 75,000 Distance : 3m This race was unsuitable for Stats research.

23 Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Friday 17 March Prize Money: 400,000 Distance : 3m 2 1/2f 13 renewals and 177 runners Horses that had 21 or more career races before are 0-59 Horses aged 11 and over are 0-30 and havent won this since 1969 You need to be last time out if you completed. Others are 0-28 Horses with less than 2 races this season are 0-32 Previous track form is vital Horses that had not won in their last 6 races were 0-25 Horses do badly when coming from Newbury (0-23)and Wincanton (0-19) Horses do well when coming from Kempton (5-25)

24 Christie's Foxhunter Steeplechase Friday 17 March Prize Money: 40,000 Distance : 3m 2 1/2f 11 renewals and 215 runners Seasonal debutants are 1-78 Horses coming from Warwick are excellent (4-9) Horses coming from Haydock (0-11) Abroad (0-17) Stratford (0-12) Ludlow (0-11) Huntingdon (0-9) Horses aged 11 and over (2-80) are weak Horses that wore or wear headgear are 0-29 Horses that ran 8-15 days ago are strong (6-40) Horses that ran 32 or more days ago are just 2-97 Fillies are Mares are 0-15 You need to be last time out (others 0-60) Horses that ran well in the previous renewal fair well. 3 won and several placed Horses coming from 4 miles or longer are 0-8 Horses that come from a Handicap underperform (1-26) Horses coming from a Maiden or Novice Hunter are 0-14, Maidens are 0-28 Newmarket horses are 0-46 All 18 horses that had ran in a Grade 1 race before Lost

25 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Steeplechase Friday 17 March Prize Money: 75,000 Distance : 2m 1/2f 12 renewals and 197 runners Horses with 5-12 career starts (6-49) fair very well Horses with Less than 3 runs this year is 0-38 Horses aged 10 + are just They can win but in the last 6 years only 1 has been placed. Only 4 horses aged 10 or more have won since the 1945 War Horses coming from Kempton are 0-21 Horses that ran 48 or more days ago are just 0-53 Horses that had never ran in Grade 1 / Grade 2 before are of the last 6 winners carried 10st 1lbs or less as low weights dominated recently Novices should not be discounted and have won this many times Horses that ran in last years renewal havent done well You want to have been last time, or to have fallen (others 1-28) You dont want a horse thats had 6 or more runs this year (1-68) Horses carrying 11st 8lbs or more underperform (1-17)

26 Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle Friday 17 March Prize Money: 65,000 Distance : 2m 1f 12 renewals and 294 runners Horses with less than 3 runs this season were 0-95 Horses with 8 or more runs this season were 0-27 Horses that were beaten 8 or more lengths last time out were Horses that were not last time out were just Horses that had not ran within 48 days are just 1-79 Horses aged 8 and above should be avoided (2-69) (one was a Champion Hurdler) 35 of the last 44 renewals went to horses aged 5 or 6 Horses coming from a Grade 1/Grade 2 race last time out are Horses with 11st 8lbs or more were just 1-21 and only 1 has won since of the last 31 winners carried 11st or less but 3 of those wins came post 1998 Horses that were 1st/2nd last time do well (8-97) Irish Trainers are 1-48

27 Introduction The aim of this document is to provide you with some cold hard statistics with regards to the major Cheltenham races. The Cheltenham Race Statistics discussed here are based on 13 years of past records. We are providing information on 18 of the 24 Cheltenham races, those not discussed being omitted due to them being first runnings or newer races not suitable for back checking over many years. I am not seeking to list each and every stat for each race, what I have attempted to do is to boil the information down into Stats that stand out as unusual or are particularly significant. Take trainers for example. I will not list each and every trainers record for any particular race, I will however identify and highlight trainers who have done particularly well or particularly badly. To aid your understanding of the information presented I will explain some of the terms and jargon below. 1 - Renewals...When I talk in the document about renewals, I am talking about the number of past runnings examined to produce the stats mentioned. e.g. 13 Renewals means I have examined the last 13 years of the race in question. 2 - Stats Notation: When I give figures such as 1-20, this means there have been 20 past instances of such a stat, with only one win. e.g. I may say "Horses carrying 11st 8lbs or more are only 0-24" That means for that particular race, 24 horses in the past carried 11st 8lbs or more but none of them won. What to do with the Stats The Stats are a base upon which to build further. They are only part of the jigsaw but I can assure you many others will be trying to solve the same puzzle but without the information you now possess. In my own betting I tend to first cross reference runners against strong statistical trends. This often aids in producing a short list for closer examination or identifies over bet favorites with serious statistical questions against their chances that are worth taking on in the exchanges. You will find me doing this analysis work for clients whether it be for a muddy Ludlow on a Wednesday afternoon or a major meeting such as Cheltenham.

28 If you want to see an example of how I personally take the raw stats and build on them to arrive at a final betting selection just send a blank to testmessage@mathematician-betting.co.uk Alternately go to the following link to see sample messages from February 2006 when Best Bets made a profit at 100 level stakes of I wish you the best of luck with your betting over the Festival. I hope these stats help point you to a few good winners or sway you from a few bad bets you may otherwise have made. Best Wishes and Good Luck Guy Ward