Components - Four Factors Formula - Form Reading Method:

Transcription

1 Components - Four Factors Formula - Form Reading Method: In this report we will cover the races we looked at in the videos to quickly form ready any race and place horses into the FFF using Race card examples. I will then be showing you how to use the four factors formula to make straight forward race selections on a daily basis. Objective 1. Using irv Ratings Software or the Racing Post to identify potential races. 2. Using form reading methods to work through potential races and possible selections. 3. By using the four factors formula, you have an easy to follow method which allows you to stack horses in the relevant order of there chances within any race. 4. We will be covering the top four within the Ratings, or RP Tissue Prices. 5. We will write down positives and negatives for all possible selections. 6. We are looking for a solid race selections, however we will not ignore other potential race winners within the race. 7. You need focus and somewhere free from distractions. 8. Pen and paper for note taking. Materials Four Factors Formula plan should include; Possible selections for today (Top four in the betting Tissues prices or Ratings Top 4) We are looking for patterns We do this through Form Reading Points to look at are Top rated selections (within qualified races) These are quality races such as Handicap. Not Claimer or Sellers, Juvenile, Amateur, Maiden these are poor races. Some Novice races will be fine if using the Ratings, if enough information to work through or high top rated selections. All Time Starts (ATS) In relation to OR (Official Rating) Horses Fitness (days since last run) (Rule of thumb under 40 days Flat races, under 100 days Jumps races). AW races, a quick return is best under 21 days. Win Ratio (Ground, Distance, Course, Class, Race Type, Win/Place Percentages) Recent Runs Today s Selections (Racing Post) Competition (Verdict) Zoning in on selections (Comments) PAGE 1 OF 16

2 1:30 LINGFIELD HANDICAP RACE FOR December the 3rd 2014 First lets look at the ratings: You can just use the Racing post however the best way forward and the quickest is to use the Software Ratings. So this looks like a good race choice its a Handicap and instantly we can see, Don't Be is showing +17 points which is 7 points ahead of his nearest rival in second place at Presumido +10. Some races have more of a break in the ratings, we can see that the last 3 horses can be dismissed. I m mainly interested in the top four. Although if another horse is looking like a potential threat or on the same ratings points total as the fourth placed horse i may still run them through the FFF (four factors formula) if necessary just to double check. The more you look at races the less important this will become as you will get an instant feel for the race. Why do we do this Well I m interested in looking at the top four horses mainly, I m looking for one maybe two selection to stand out within this group, if I find what I m looking for then im happy that the Software Ratings have already covered my selection making process due to the nature of the filters set behind the scenes. If I find what im looking for then I have a bet, if not I simply move onto the next possible race. I don t worry to much about the other runners as the software is already showing me the best horses in that particular race. From here there are additional check I can then carry out as well as a few other things to bear in mind however we will get to those in due time. I m looking to confirm what I already see within the software. Just think of how huge a task it would be to manually rate all today s runners from every horse race when you open the Racing Post trust me its an all night job as I ve done it before, many years ago and to say it takes concentration and is a laborious task is to undermine the feat itself. When looking at the Ratings above we can see top rated is standing out. This does not mean a straight blind bet we still need to double check. For me im instantly drawn to top rated not just for the points total but also for his ATS which stand at 4. I use this in relation to the horses OR official rating like i explained in the video. This horse has shown a lot of ability and is rated top from only having 4 runs. This means he's done a lot in 4 races compared to many of the other runners who have had double figure ATS. PAGE 2 OF 16

3 For the Four Factors Formula the horses we are going to look at are; Don t Be Presumido Clement Al s Memory (forth place on the ratings is a non runner) if this happens take the next horse. Here s the race card. If you don t have the Rating then you use the Tissue RP first four horses in the betting they would be (Don t Be, Al s Memory, For Aymen, Presumido) Note: I don't worry if the Ratings and the Racing Post Top Four don't match exactly. Reason is im looking for one horse so as long as I check the top four and i find what im looking for then I m happy. This method is proven if you only use the RP or the Ratings. Obviously the Ratings software give you a massive head start. The verdict is a great way to get a feel for the race if you are not using software, it can provide clues about the quality of the race itself. Two of our top rated are mentioned here so that gives us a point of reference. You don't need to use the RP if you are using the software however you can still double check. PAGE 3 OF 16

4 Here s the Postdata: Which is a great guide and you can use this to mark down any positives or negatives about the runners. This looks quite competitive however we know by using the software that Don't Be is well ahead. This knowledge as well as the ATS gives me instant confidence into this horse. Individual Horse Comments: These will also give you clues and confidence. It allows you to either mark a horse down as negative or give it positives. Again the main horse Don't Be has a positive comment. PAGE 4 OF 16

5 Lets just quickly run through the Positives and Negatives for each horse in relation to the four factors. Don t Be Top rated clear by 7 points Low ATS high Official rating Days since last run Success last week for this yard Positive Mention in the Racing post verdict Mentioned in the RP Selections Tops the selections board with 9 picks Already beaten Al s Memory Won last time out Course Won Course and distance Mentioned in the Verdict Post Data selection negative slight weight increase Presumido Trainer form 7 points behind Don't Be PAGE 5 OF 16

6 Placed at the Course Clement Negative yet to get going this season Trainer form negative Vulnerable Not mentioned in Verdict or Selections Recent form figures going backwards Al s Memory Multiple winner x 4 over course & distance Negative yet to put head infant in 2014 Already beaten Fav last time out behind (Don t Be) Low win percentage Lets see how these horses fit into the Four Factors Formula: PAGE 6 OF 16

7 Factor 1: Don't Be (no surprise i expected this as im sure you did. Factor 2: Al s Memory Factor 3: Presumido Factor 4: Clement You can see how you can easily pick positives and negatives for these horses. Here s the Result: I need to state on this example as clear cut as the top horse is the others have some cross over as this race is tighter in terms of horses experiences over the conditions than some examples. All horses have done something in relation to the race conditions and do match some criteria, however recently they have failed to perform. Presumido does in fact meet some race criteria, but there is no doubt he was a serious contender. This is why we mark down positives and minuses for the horses. I hope you can see my approach other races will be more clear cut my main point is don't worry to much about the negative horses your goal is to find the positive one and by doing so you will find winners. Factor 3 is a built in safety net really it allows you to select the danger horse to your main selection. It may not always have a horse in all the factors or you may have two horses in one factor, again this is fine your main job is to find a solid Factor 1: By using the four factors formula we are looking to consider the top four horses, you can look at other horses but this will obviously give you more to do and at this stage we already know the software has taken a huge step forward for us in filtering the horses data. PAGE 7 OF 16

8 We are also looking at the notion that horses within the top four of the betting win the most races. By using the four factors formula we will be looking at all potential horses in the same manor. for example if they have won last time out, we will still look for patterns in relation to todays race type, class, ground, distance. All individuals are judged by achievements or on merit Just because a horse did not win last time out does not mean you should dismiss its chances today until all you checks have been made Using the Ratings software along side the four factors formula you can really quickly speed through and make notes regarding the horses very easily. As we go though and look at other examples I will show you additional form reading checks for you to make, however in this example I just want to get you started and have you thinking about breaking down the race, looking at the first four top rated horses, like i showed you in the video. Once we are happy that we have checked out the basics, then we will work though other points to consider. There is no secrete formula, no black magic, simply the facts. I will give you the facts and the techniques for you to use and work on. These techniques will help you in a daily basis and for many years to come. I know people have different ways of betting and races which they prefer so it would be silly of me to think that I can cover everyone s preferences in any topic really, but what I m looking for is a back bet. I m simply going to note down what I see and then apply my findings into the four factors formula. This method of application will give us a clear idea of what will happen within the race and ultimately give us one selection. Lets look at another example: 2:10 HANDICAP CHASE FOR December the 3rd 2014 In this one you can clearly see the split in the Ratings from Abbeygrey. There are more runners on page two of the ratings software but im not concerned with any of those and you can see the top four are well ahead in terms of points. For the Four Factors Formula the horses we are going to look at are; Gorsky Island Top rated with +15 kingsmere +8 Roll The Dice +7 Abbeygrey +7 PAGE 8 OF 16

9 Here s the race card. This time we have the same horses showing in the tissue price and the Ratings software. Focus What I m giving you is the ability to read the facts, form read with conjidence, make your own race analysis and then rate the horses within the four factors to give you a Jinal run down of the top four horses in the ratings. From here you are then making an astute selections making process, work for you in the best way possible. The Four Factors Formula is quick, simple and doesn t allow you to misinterpret the information, it also then gives you the clear cut selections regarding any race you look at. The Verdict: Straight away we have positives for Gorsky Island, we also read similar for Kingsmere however not as positive. Also you can see Roll the Dice is nap. We have more work to do before we decide. PAGE 9 OF 16

10 Here s the Postdata: Kingmere here is showing a negative for the trainer, as for the other three horses they all still look good. Roll The Dice is the Postdata selection. Without using the ratings, you would need to look through each horses history to make more astute decisions. Obviously you can gain some information from the race card. Things to look for recent form figures showing positives. Days since last run, C&D etc. Gorsky Island is a C&D winner on the Race card. Individual Horse Comments: These will also give you clues and confidence. It allows you to either mark a horse down as negative or give it positives. Again the main horse Gorsky Island he has been tried at a variety of distances and likes this one today, he has also beaten Abberygrey. Kingmere, some positives and negatives in the comment. Roll The Dice, still only has 10 runs under his belt which is good however he seems not to be progressing as quickly as Gorsky Island who has only 6 ATS yet he is +8 points higher in the ratings. PAGE 10 OF 16

11 Lets just quickly run through the Positives and Negatives for each horse in relation to the four factors. I already from the ratings know which horses have my attention. I m only really looking at the top two, however we will do our additional checks on the first four horses and work those out in relation to how we assess a race using the four factors. Failing to do so could end badly if we miss something. Four Factors Formula I want you to be able to easily spot races which have the potential of finding a selection or selections, to be able to easily interpret the information within the software and then very quickly run thorough the horses history and write down exactly what you see. PAGE 11 OF 16

12 Top Rated by +7 ATS C&D wins Good Comments 3 Picks as selection LTO winner Gorsky Island Possible weight Placed Course and Distance Decent run LTO Kingsmere Trainer form Recent form Distance Class Weight PAGE 12 OF 16

13 Roll The Dice (Napped) Post-date Positive tactics and track Recent form Weight -8 below top rated Official rating Distance Class Abbeygrey Weight Not won at Course, Ground or Distance Beaten by Gorsky Island 20 days ago. Class Lets see how these horses fit into the Four Factors Formula: PAGE 13 OF 16

14 Factor 1: Gorsky Island Factor 2: Kingsmere Factor 3: Roll The Dice Factor 4: Abbeygrey You can see how you can easily pick positives and negatives for these horses. Here s the Result: From here you are form reading quickly and effectively without letting anything other than the facts show you the way. By using the four factors we are already crunching down the selection making process and giving ourselves the added security that not only the software has provided us with a suitable race and selections but we have made the necessary checks to make sure we have covered the best horses in the race. Remember we are looking to read and take not of what we see from the horses form and relate all the positives and negatives in relation to patterns within todays race. We then place the horse into the correct Factor, for the Four Factors Formula. I can say that its taken me a great deal of time and effort to put all this together and gather all the screen shots, this has far outweighed the time and effort I spend choosing the horses and races. That was the simple part. PAGE 14 OF 16

15 Positive V Negatives Picking Winners You have seen how easy it is to form read in this way and how the four factors allow you to stack horses in the correct order. Sometimes analysing a selection to death can do more harm than good as you will always find some negatives with any selection. The trick is to be able to weight these up against the competition in a way that allows you to be confident enough in the horse to perform on that particular day. By using the four factors you are then judging the horses and placing them in relation to the facts. No one will ever be able to accurately predict every horse racing result as there are just to many factors which can go against you, however by using the four factors and reading the facts you can see we are able to accurately asses a horses chances against its rivals by using fl to do the hard work for us and rate the horses accordingly. Its then up to us to find and select the right races, do the checks and then place the bets. The amount of races you wish to work through per day is entirely up to you however be specific and keep it simple yet focused. n. Like I say without sounding like a clever clogs, I made these bets within minutes, FL did the hard work for me I made a few check in my head wrote the names in to the four factors and then place my bets. I want you to be able to see you can make money as a second income easily and safely this is the most important part, without risking much money at all. If you are only placing your best one or two bets per day then you have not only a good chance but also lower exposure especially if dutching selections, you can also be safe in the knowledge that you have broken down the top four horses from within fl and assessed there chances based on solid fact. Hopefully you have enjoyed this week of the training room I hope you have gained plenty from this week and that you cant wait to try out the four factors and apply them to your next form reading session. Maybe I could have used very straight forward races and possibly more clear cut examples however, I decided against this as I don t think It would have given a true reflection on dealing with horse racing on a daily basis. Conclusion I hope you have enjoyed the video and the pdf showing you the four factors formula but you also managed to grasp the fundamentals and working methods which allow it to fit into racing on a daily basis. Success in racing is a direct result of a sound method or formula, competent money management, proper capitalisation, and a sound mindset. All of these aspects must be in sync for you to be successful in your betting. My advanced Training Room, Race Vision is designed to focus on all of these areas. The Four Factor Formula forms a big part of this. PAGE 15 OF 16

16 By combining the four factors formula with the Ratings software you can see we not only have a very powerful tool but a workable formula providing us with not only greater betting opportunities but opportunities which are intact more select in terms of race selection. This then allows you to be more flexible in your approach in terms of making winning selections. Working on and developing your form reading skills will help you ten fold when it comes to looking at the ratings. Your findings within races the positives and negatives of runners within the top four will not only become easier the more you actually spend time working through the ratings, but then placing those findings within the four factors will allow you to speed through races faster then ever before. Now with the added confidence of actually seeing how the competition stack up in terms of previous ability and by breaking down the top horses in terms of competition you will have a clear sense of how the race should be ran. By following this formula you are working through, zoning in, been selective and arriving at a outcome which can then be noted with confidence within your betting. All i will say is keep going through and working on all the techniques within the weeks already cover and those still to come. Remember mindset is at the forefront of what we ned to be aiming in terms of what the necessary skill set will help you to achieve. The only area where you may need additional help once you have mastered your form reading skills, is your mindset. Your racing mindset needs to open your thinking pathways in relation to racing Psychology which is one area that was not only a starting point but essential in enabling your racing development and success. Then apply and start putting all these skills together and make more winning selections. The four factors formula is structured in such a way that it is flexible enough when more than one selection meets a certain factor. It shows you horses with potential, horses with negative form, possible danger horses, it allows for a variation of betting types to suit your every need, weather thats dutching, backing, laying, or a combination of those. Having the four factors is one thing, knowing how to use it properly along side Ratings software is huge in terms of the potential. It will keep you on the right track for as long as your use it and devote time and effort to getting the most from your racing. All the best BSG PAGE 16 OF 16