GLOBEFORM S US RACING MANUAL

Transcription

1 Miesque s Approval winning the Breeders Cup Mile Stefano Grasso Globeform s US Racing Manual By Geir Stabell

2 US horseracing, a global betting market Final furlong at Churchill Downs Globeform North American horseracing is now being televised every evening in England, on At The Races, and it is becoming more and more popular, not least since the time difference means that these races are staged during prime time TV hours in Europe. Even if you do not have access to these TV channels you can watch North American racing online. Several bookmakers now offer this service, giving their clients the opportunity to view the races online. Horseracing is quite different in North America, compared to England and the rest of Europe, and the betting products are very different. Is it better? If you mean the betting, the answer is yes, the pool betting products are much more appealing than in the European market and also better than the various bets offered by English and Irish bookmakers. The smaller player has a much better chance of making nice profits in USA, where the most interesting bets are the socalled exotics. These are bets where you try to predict who will be first and second in correct order, or first, second and third, even first, second, third and fourth. Learn about US racing, learn about these and other bets, and enjoy North American racing as a well-informed armchair punter. Stteep 11:: Contti inuee rreeaadi ing tthi iss maanuaal l..

3 GLOBEFORM'S US RACING & BETTING MANUAL Now published: Globeform's brand new US Racing & Betting Manual, an infopacked A4-book of 84 pages, fully illustrated, is an absolute must for anyone taking an interest in North American racing. Beginners and experienced players alike. You can buy this comprehensive publication and download it directly from our web site from Friday. CONTENTS: - All US Pool Bets explained - The Exacta, the value bet - Trifecta betting and systems - Superfecta betting and systems - Pick 3, the 'value trebles' - Pick 4, good system needed - Pick 6, the life changing wager - How to read US racecards / programs - The US courses, what's what? - Knowing the US trainers - Knowing the US jockeys - Tracks and surfaces in focus - European horses in the USA - South American horses in the USA - Ante-post / future betting on US races - Medication, the added factor - The 'bounce' theory, all nonsense? - North American Stakes race calendar An absolute must read for everyone interested in US racing and betting. Price just ($45.95) - purchase before October 25 and get 5 / $10 off. Please find extracts from the book on the pages below.

4 Bets explained Win, place & show US racetracks offer normal win pool betting, as well as place betting and show betting. Win pool win betting, like Tote win betting in England. Place you back the horse to finish 1 st or 2 nd. Show you back the horse to finish 1 st, 2 nd or 3 rd. Are these place and show bets of any interest to us? Sometimes. If you want to make an each-way bet you need to make a Win & Show bet, i.e. two bets; one on the horse to win and one on the horse to finish in the first three. These are two separate pools, and there is no rule saying that the show price is ¼ of the win price, like with fixed odds and SP betting in England. The show pools can sometimes be out of sync with the win pool, especially when the race has a long odds-on favourite. Big players in the USA bet huge amounts on such horses to be in the first three, as by law there is always at least a 5% profit on all successful bets. This is particularly interesting for big players in small fields, as there is show betting also on races with a few as five runners. Such an event can have a heavy favourite, going off at 1/5 or even as short as 1/10 in the win betting. This horse is, however, guaranteed to return 1/20 (5% profit) for finishing in the first three. Thus, the show pools will take serious money on these horses, creating what the tracks call a negative pool. When a favourite like this finishes in the first three, the track is losing money on the pool betting. To us, this way of betting is hardly interesting. Do you really want to risk $100 to make $5? Probably not, but it may be interesting to have a show bet on one of the outsiders in such a small field, as his show odds will be pushed out dramatically by the weight of the show money wagered on the favourite. Continues in the US Racing & Betting Manual

5 Personally, I seldom back horses to show (finish in first three). I do this when I am backing a horse to win that is 10-1 or bigger, in particular if it is a European horse (or ex-european horse running for the first time in the USA). The local punters often ignore these horses and those who do back them normally just throw some money on the horse to win. This is not at all a rule of thumb, but European runners do from time to time pay silly prices in the show pool. Even European horses that are well fancied. Take a look at these examples from the Breeders Cup Series in 2006 and you will see what I mean: Breeders Cup Turf 1 st Shirocco (Ger) Win odds: Show odds: (approx. 11/8) 2 nd Ace (Ire) Win odds: Show odds: rd Azamour (Ire) Win odds: Show odds: % of win odds 30% of win odds 65% of win odds! Frankie Dettori and Brian Meehan after winning at the Breeders Cup Stefano Grasso

6 Bookmakers taking bets on this race in England would be offering ¼ the win odds for eachway betting, and we see that Shirocco s show odds were just over that but Ace returned almost 1/3 of his win odds to finish in the first three. Azamour, who was the favourite in the race, returned an amazing 2/3 of his win odds to finish in the first three. It is interesting to note that the shortest priced horse in the win pool offered the best value in the show pool. As I said above, I have never been particularly interested in show betting, but it can be worth looking at and remember; in US racing you can have a show bet only (or a place bet only) you do not need to have a win bet on the horse to back it to finish in the first three. That is a problem in England. If you think that a horse may be worth backing to be 2 nd or 3 rd, the bookmaker forces you to have a win bet as well. When show betting can offer such value opportunities in a race like the Breeders Cup Turf, which everyone knows has so often been dominated by Europeans, it is easy to understand that European runners can offer good value also in smaller races around the USA. Across the board is a term you will be hearing from time to time and it simply means that you back the horse to win, place and show. For example by putting $10 on the horse to win, $10 to place and $10 to show. If you are at a racecourse in America and go to the betting window requesting 10 dollars across the board on a horse, the teller will know what you are talking about. Online, you will find bookmakers who have a button for this. Of course, there is nothing to stop you from having a bit more on the win bet than on the place and show bets, or the other way round if you like. When betting on US racing it is important to remember that you actually do have more choices than you do in England. It is all very well to talk about the advantage of being able to take a price, but the UK horseracing betting market does not offer much flexibility and is favouring the big players who can have large amounts on horses to win. Win betting in the USA is exactly the same as when we back horses in England, but you will not be able to take a fixed price. The pools are big, however, and on big racedays it takes a huge amount to cut a price dramatically. One big advantage with assessing the odds in the USA, is that when you see that a horse is coming down in price, you know that the horse has been backed. Bookmakers in England can cut a price if they so wish, without having taken much money for the horse, simply to make it look like one particular horse is being backed by big players. Small punters often fall for this trick, and rush to back the horse, thinking that they must get some of that 4-1 before it goes to 3-1 This never happens in America.

7 PICK 6, FOR FOOLS & MILLIONAIRES but also the life changing bet The Pick 6 returned a record $3,120,256,80 at Santa Anita in February The Pick 6 may be a bet for naïve optimists and millionaires but it is still a lot, lot better than the Scoop 6 in England, simply because the minimum stake per line is $2, half of the minimum on the Scoop 6. Also, this is not an each-way bet you are simply trying to pick winners in six races. There is a consolation payout for five winners, and if the P6 is not won there is a jackpot carryover. This can roll for days, weeks, building up massive pools. On February 18, 2008, there was a P6 record payout of $3.1 million occurred at Santa Anita, and those who had five winners collected $7,786. I play the Pick 6 only on Kentucky Derby day and Breeders Cup day. Those are days when one has a chance, as all six legs a high-class races. They are also good days to get a group of players together and have a syndicate. When betting the Pick 6, you need at least two bankers, and I would recommend taking a chance on two horses only in a third leg, making it possible to have quite a few horses in the three other legs. Again, a system where you take a shot at getting one key horse first past the Continues in the US Racing & Betting Manual

8 How to read the American racecards The Daily Racing Form ( ), Equibase ( ) and BRISNET ( all offer very detailed and comprehensive racecards or Past Performances as they call these publications in North America which can be bought online. Of the three, I much prefer Daily Racing Form, I can work with Equibase but I find Brisnet very poor. They also have a lot of information but it is badly laid out and hard work to read. In fact, they are all pretty hard to read, when you are not familiar with them which is also why it is best to stick with the same style every week. After a while, you know exactly what info you find where, what info you feel is most useful, and the PPs are a great tool. With these program pages you can form an opinion on a horse, or a whole race, without having to go from page to page to page (as is the case with the UK style form in the Racing Post). In England, let s say you decide to check the form of horse Monsieur Poirot in the big race on a Saturday. The card will be in the middle of the paper, saddle cloth number, draw, trainer, rider, last placings, weights, ratings, betting forecast and so on. To see the form of Monsieur Poirot, however, you have to turn to page 65. There it is, right in the bottom corner, you see the name of the horse, plus pedigree and and some stats, but no races, because at the bottom it reads continues on page 67. So, turning to page 67 you relocate Monsieur Poirot and his four most recent races, but you only get the results of two of these races, because in the two other races he finished behind Miss Marple, a mare who is also running in today s event. So, for these races, it simply reads See Miss Marple. So, back to page 65 you go, to find Miss Marple. By the time you have gone through a field of ten runners in this way, the race may be off and running! Studying English form is such a time consuming exercise and to make matters worse the racing paper does not give you the form of today s races until in the raceday issue. This despite the fact that we now have 48-hour declarations. In the US, the companies listed above publish their Past Performances pages two days prior to the raceday. Continues in the US Racing & Betting Manual

9 Knowing the US trainers Europeans betting on North American racing should concentrate on the bigger tracks, such as Churchill Downs, Belmont Park, Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita. I say this for three reasons. Firstly, this is where the high quality stakes racing takes place, where the best horses are running, and where the form is most reliable. Secondly, this is where the top trainers and jockeys operate, and it is easier for us across the pond to keep up with their current form and their running plans. If you bet at smaller tracks, you will have to focus on the trainers who are dominating locally. That is not so hard, as US racecards give you excellent stats etc. but it does not translate to other tracks. The top men, however, like Todd Pletcher, Bob Baffert and Robert Bobby Frankel, are normally in the top flight wherever they run their horses. The third reason I like to focus on the main venue is simply that this is where I most often come across ex-european horses runners that I know better than the US punter does. Now, to the trainers. Statistics after name are the trainer s 2007 totals in North America below. Trainers are here listed by best strike rate (winners to runners). Trainer Runners Winners Strike rate Carl Nafzger. Todd Pletcher % Christophe Clement % Robert Frankel % Kiaran McLaughlin % Graham Motion % Steve Asmussen % Bill Mott % Scott Lake % Doug O Neill % Full list and analyses in the US Racing & Betting Manual 2008 Geir Stabell, Globeform, Exning, Newmarket, Suffolk CB8 7JH, England