RICS Global Commercial Property Survey Q2 2013
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1 Q recovery story gathers pace as falters Further improvement in sentiment in both occupier and investment segments of real estate market The mood in the ian property market takes its lead from the softer economic picture European sentiment generally remains downbeat while Asia continues to tell a more upbeat story The Q2 RICS Global Commercial Property Survey suggests that the recovery in the is continuing to gain traction. Significantly, this market tops the RICS Occupier Sentiment Index* (OSI) and is second in the RICS Investment Sentiment Index* (ISI). These indices are designed to chart how sentiment in various countries has changed compared with the previous three month period and are therefore not designed to capture levels. Nevertheless, they show that the tone in the real estate sector is continuing to gain ground, reversing the negative trend that characterised the market from the back end of 2009 through till the middle of last year. By way of contrast, the feedback we are receiving from is rather more downbeat. This is particularly so for the occupier market where the headline sentiment indicator dropped to 39 from 28; it has now been in negative territory for three successive quarters reflecting softer numbers on both tenant demand and rent expectations as well as higher figures for inducements. Significantly, the ISI for is continuing to display a greater degree of resilience; although there have been some well publicised capital outflows from the country, our data continues to suggest that property investors are willing to take a longer term view of the prospects for the economy. The headline indicators in Europe generally remain weak for both the occupier and investment markets reflecting the on-going recession in the region. continues to be an exception in terms of the growth outlook and sentiment within real estate. Indeed, if anything, investors appears to view Europe s largest economy as increasingly attractive with RICS headline indicator climbing from 18 to 22. Meanwhile, the modest improvement in the occupier market in the in Q2 is broadly consistent with the somewhat better tone to the economic newsflow. The results for Asia are generally upbeat with leading the way on the investment side (44) while also delivering a strong result for the occupier market (26). The positive feedback from the ese real estate sector chimes with the better numbers emanating from the economy in the wake of the dramatic shift in both monetary and fiscal policies. Interestingly, the fears surrounding the widening of the stamp duty net in to the commercial sector that were clearly visible in the Q1 survey appear to have eased. The ISI for actually edged back into positive territory (8) having declined in the previous three month period (-12). The headline numbers for remain generally firm despite a slight loss of momentum in the economy and growing concerns over the rapid increase in credit with the investment indicator more positive than the occupier measure. In, the real estate picture remains broadly flat reflecting a degree of caution in the sector as the central bank grapples with the challenge presented by a subdued economy and volatility in the currency. The results for the United States are encouraging with further evidence of rising investor appetite and stronger tenant demand driving both rents and capital value expectations in an upward direction despite some mixed economic data. Of all the countries that the we collated data for in Q2, the has the third highest RSI reading and the sixth highest OSI result. Meanwhile, the numbers for remain generally firm. Finally in, our occupier index remains in negative territory and to a greater extent than in Q1 while the investment index is slightly positive but less than was previously the case. * RICS Occupier Sentiment Index (OSI) is constructed by taking an unweighted average of readings for three series relating to the occupier market measured on a net balance basis; occupier demand, the level of inducements and rent expectations. RICS Investment Sentiment Index (ISI) is constructed by taking an unweighted average of readings for three series relating to the investment market measured on a net balance basis; investment enquiries, capital value expectations and the supply of distressed properties. To receive a free copy of this report on the day of release, mhanley@rics.org
2 Occupier Sentiment Index in Q
3 Investment Sentiment Index in Q
4 Rental Expectations for next quarter (% net balance)
5 Capital Value Expectations for next quarter (% net balance)
6 Distressed property Expected Supply and Current Demand (% net Balance) Expected Supply Current Demand
7 Survey information RICS Global Commercial Property Survey RICS Global Commercial Property Survey is a quarterly guide to the trends in the commercial property investment and occupier markets. The Global Commercial Property Survey is available from the RICS web site along with other surveys covering the housing market, residential lettings, commercial property, construction activity, the farmland market and arts and antiques. Subscription rates for the quarterly RICS Global Commercial Property Survey data are: 550 per annum for Non RICS members 450 per annum for RICS members Methodology Survey questionnaires were sent out on 10th June with responses received until 8th July. Respondents were asked to compare conditions over the latest three months with the previous three months. A total of 858 company responses were received, with 180 from the. Responses for were collated by the Society of Chartered Surveyors. Responses have been amalgamated across the three real estate sub-sectors (offices, retail and industrial) at a country level, to form a net balance reading for the market as a whole. A positive net balance reading indicates an overall increase, a negative reading indicates an overall decline. The RICS Occupier Sentiment Index (OSI) is constructed by taking an unweighted average of readings for three series relating to the occupier market measured on a net balance basis; occupier demand, the level of inducements and rent expectations. The RICS Investment Sentiment Index (ISI) is constructed by taking an unweighted average of readings for three series relating to the investment market measured on a net balance basis; investment enquiries, capital value expectations and the supply of distressed properties. Contact details This publication has been produced by RICS Economics. For economic all enquiries, including participation in the survey, please contact: economics@rics.org About RICS RICS represents 140,000 members worldwide. These professionals provide expert advice on land, property, construction and the associated environmental issues. An independent organisation, RICS acts in the public interest, upholding standards of competence and integrity among its members and providing impartial, authoritative advice on issues affecting business and society. Become a member of RICS If you would like to find out more about becoming a member of RICS, please visit Disclaimer This document is intended as a means for debate and discussion and should not be relied on as legal or professional advice. Whilst every reasonable effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the contents, no warranty is made with regard to that content. Data, information or any other material may not be accurate and there may be other more recent material elsewhere. RICS will have no responsibility for any errors or omissions. RICS recommends you seek professional, legal or technical advice where necessary. RICS cannot accept any liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of the editorial content, or by any person acting or refraining to act as a result of the material included.
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