Start. What are arbitrage bets about? Is this legitimate?

Transcription

1

2 Table of contents Start... 3 What are arbitrage bets about?... 3 Is this legitimate?... 3 The Investment... 4 Money... 4 Time... 4 Profit... 5 Too good to be true... 5 Arbitrage in figures... 6 Types of sports... 7 Types of bets... 7 Bookmakers... 9 What do I have to consider as an arbitrage better?... 9 Bookmaker websites... 9 Limits The stake Where should I sign up? Hints and advice What are the risks? No one ever became a pro overnight Keep everything under control! The order of placing your bets Cancellations Bonuses and free bets Drained account what now? Staying down low Withdrawal funds No arbitrary/random numbers Arbitration Checklist

3 Start What are arbitrage bets about? The technology for Arbitrage-bets is not new. Quite on the contrary. However, its main use so far has been in the financial world. What happens is that a commodity will be differently priced in two (stock) markets. Smart investors will see this and will take advantage of the situation by buying at the lower price and then selling immediately - with profit. Arbitrage stands for taking advantage of price discrepancies. This idea can also be applied to the world of betting! When there is an arbitrage opportunity in the betting market, you can make a profit by betting on every outcome of the game! Every day there are many hundreds of arbitrage situations, producing opportunities for fast profits in the double-digit percentile! Devilbet.com reveals when and where such arbitrage situations are occurring. Devilbet.com offers the unique possibility to use arbitrage on live betting odds. For you, this creates more and especially higher chances of winning, but more on that later. Let us show you the details on how an arbitrage bet works. The simplest situation is the twoway bet. These are bets that only offer two possible outcomes e.g. a win or defeat at a tennis match Maria Scharapowa vs. Serena Williams: Odds for Maria Scharapowa on bookmaker1: 2,15 Odds for Serena Williams on bookmaker2: 2,15 So if you are betting 500 on both bookmakers you will win 75 regardless of which one of the players will actually win. You have wagered 1000 and have earned This concept is easy as it is brilliant. Is this legitimate? Basically arbitrage bets are not any different to normal bets. The concept is 100% legal. Some bookmakers state that they don t allow their users to take advantage of these situations, so familiarize yourself with their terms and conditions in advance. 3

4 The Investment Money The bankroll is the starting capital that you have transferred to your various accounts, and is what you will be wagering with on those sites. Every opportunity that should produce profits first requires you to invest your money. To take advantage of arbitrage one must react fast. This means that you will have to make sure that you have enough money in your accounts beforehand, in order to be able to bet accordingly. The bankroll minimum required to make substantial winnings is about 500. Below that, you will find it difficult to achieve high profits. The more you have in your bankroll, the higher your profits will be. Your stakes will be higher for each wager, therefore generating higher winnings. If your monthly goal is 500 profit, and at a performance of 50%, you should have around 1000 distributed amongst your accounts. Sounds a lot better than your interest rates doesn t it? You can find a list of the supported bookmakers at devilbet.com/en/gettingstarted. Time It will be important that you familiarize yourself with the subject of sports betting, especially when you are getting started. Arbitrage opportunities only last for a couple of minutes, so it is essential that you can react efficiently in these situations. This will require you to know the terminology, understand our data stream and be able to navigate fluently on the websites you are using (which means you should also know how to use the individual bookmaker s platforms). To get started simply open the arbitrage stream on Devilbet.com. Once it is has detected an arbitrage opportunity it will let you know (visually on the screen). Once you have received the notification, click on the displayed links and in a few minutes the transaction will have been completed. For more support you can also use our Google Chrome Browser Plug-in, free of charge. With merely one click this plug-in will open all the necessary websites and will even automatically fill out your betting-slip. In this case you can expect to win about 5-10% of your placed wager. Arbitrage opportunities are only available for a few minutes at a time, however you will see just how many different opportunities arise constantly. 4

5 Profit Your potential earnings are mainly based on your experience and invested time. As a rookie you can expect to increase your bankroll by roughly 50% each month. An increase by 100% each month however is also easily possible. On the following pages we want to show you how to reach this goal as fast as possible. Over time this system will become more familiar to you and you will have refined your arbitrage skills. Then it will be up to you and how much time you choose to invest. The more time you invest, the higher your profits. Too good to be true That is the first thing that comes to mind when people hear about arbitrage for the first time. But the fact is it works! The thing is that existing platforms are incredibly complex to use. That is probably why you have never heard of arbitrage betting before. Our goal at Devilbet.com is to provide you with the simplest user-interface possible. Most solutions are based on a so-called mainbook. These are betting odds that are based on future sports events (which is the opposite of live betting). Devilbet.com however offers the opportunity to bet during, and on, live events! This means more and higher chances to win than using the mainbook. Our live stream is the perfect solution and easy to use. Time & Engagement You ve been taught that if something sounds too good to be true it usually is? Well - even here nothing is simply given to you. It is necessary that you invest time and that you develop a feel for the system. However you will see that soon it will come naturally and that your success will rapidly increase. 5

6 Arbitrage in figures In order to understand the mathematics behind arbitrage bets, you need to have the knowledge of how bookmakers generate the odds for their users. The bookmaker s goal is to earn money, regardless of the outcome of the game. He will design the bet in such a way, that the odds are in his favor. A low odd e.g. 1,1 stands for a high probability. The transformation between odds and probability happens through division by 1. If bookmaker1 holds an odd of 2,65 for a certain outcome, then it means that he expects that this outcome will occur with the probability of 38% (1 2,65 = 0,377 (3sf)). An imaginary odd of 1,60 (1 1,60 = 0,625 (3sf)) given by bookmaker2 however indicates a probability of around 63%. In this case we get an added probability of over 100%. This leads to a negative arbitrage result of -0,2%. The advantage therefore lies by the bookmaker. In this case an arbitrage opportunity is ruled out. An arbitrage opportunity always arises when the combined sum of all relevant probabilities lies under 100%. In the following example we get a probability lower than 100%; 0,8966 (= 89,66%). This leads to an arbitrage opportunity with roughly 10,5% earnings. 1 1, = 0, , 70 Assuming you are again betting on a tennis match (two-way bet): Odds for Serena Williams on bookmaker1: 1,90 Odds for Maria Scharapowa on bookmaker2: 2,70 If you bet 58,70 on Williams by bookmaker1 and 41,30 on Scharapowa on bookmaker2, you have bet a total of 100. The two possible outcomes of this game are: Williams wins and you receive 111,53 (1,90 x 58,70 = 111,53 ) Scharapowa wins and you receive 111,53 (2,70 x 41,30 = 111,51 ) Therefore you are either winning 11,53 or 11,51 depending on which one of the players will win. 6

7 Types of sports Generally speaking there are no limits to the types of sports you can wager on. In arbitrage betting the main differences lie in the two-way and three-way sports (see below). This means you don t need to have experience in the sports you are wagering on. However some basic knowledge can provide a lot of insight and can make your arbitrage career a lot easier. For example knowing when big tournaments are being held. Peak seasons come with larger amounts of arbitrage opportunities, so you will benefit from knowing when they are carried out. In general it can be said that arbitrage opportunities increase towards the end of the week, as more games are being held during this time. Two examples: Football/Soccer Football enjoys an enormous popularity worldwide. Germany alone has over 25,000 registered clubs (data from 2008). Countless national and international tournaments lead to very high numbers of arbitrage opportunities during these times. Do your research on when these tournaments take place. Tennis Another very popular sport is tennis. Tennis tournaments are being held throughout the year, in all time zones, generating enormous opportunities for arbitrage. Tennis offers the advantage of only two possible outcomes. The two players cannot tie! Because arbitrage betting always requires you to wager on all possible outcomes, tennis offers an easy introduction for beginners, as they will only have to place their bets with two bookmakers (these are two-way bets, more on them below). Types of bets Two-way bets A two-way bet is the most basic concept in arbitrage betting. These bets are defined by having only two possible outcomes. A victory by player1 or by player2. There are no ties. The best known candidates for these sports are basketball and tennis. This betting type is particularly useful for beginners, as they only have to place two wagers with two different bookmakers. Our Devilbet.com stream interface can specifically scan for these sports for you. 7

8 Three-way bets (1X2) Three-way bets differ from two-way bets through the possibility of a draw. It is necessary to bet on all three possible outcomes: Home victory (1), draw (X) and guest victory (2). Two arbitrage scenarios are possible. In the easiest scenario you will e.g. use bookmaker1 to bet on home victory and a draw and bookmaker2 to bet on guest victory. However there are arbitrage opportunities where you wager on all three possible outcomes with three different bookmakers. Asian Handicap (AH) Asian handicap originates, as the name suggests, from Asia. Its technique is steadily gaining global popularity. AH turns three-way bets into two-way bets by eliminating the draw through the handicap. Other forms of betting There are other types of betting that you will come across during your arbitrage career e.g. middles, inverted middles and over-under bets. To study them in more detail we suggest consulting the information provided by the various bookmakers. 8

9 Bookmakers The world of online sports betting is extremely competitive. There is a vast range of providers, bookmakers, who compete for costumers with their odds. Competition is high. In order for them to generate profit they constantly need to watch the market. If other bookmakers offer better odds, costumers will choose others over them. Due to this business being very profitable, there is a steady stream of new providers. The ongoing competition constantly creates new arbitrage opportunities. To be successful in arbitrage betting, you will have to sign up to several online bookmakers. There are many different bookmakers, who often work very differently. Not all are trustworthy and should therefore be avoided. What do I have to consider as an arbitrage better? Some bookmakers don t want arbitrage betters to have accounts on their sites. They restrict those accounts or even close them after some time. However there are endless numbers of bookmakers and countless arbitrary opportunities. Most providers don t bother to watch those few arbitrage betters and no restrictions will occur. Bookmaker websites Make sure you really know the bookmakers that you are using. You should know the layout of their website and the process of wagering with them. We recommend that you take a good look at their account settings and at their betting process, before placing a bet with them. Arbitrage betting requires you to be able to navigate with a reasonable speed. Know Your Customer Most bookmakers will ask for your credentials before actually paying you your earnings. This is called know your costumer (KYC) and makes sure everything is in order on your side. Don t let this scare you off. They want to know that you re not sketchy just as much as you want to make sure they re not either. The required documents are usually a scan of your personal ID or perhaps a copy of your last utility bill, so they can check that your name and address match up. Bookmakers need this as a security precaution to establish your identity. Some will request this to be done even before they allow you to transfer money to your account. 9

10 Limits There are some bookmakers who will inform you of your limits before they confirm your bet. Hence you will know how much you can wager. Some bookmakers do not show you your highest possible wager before they confirm your bet. This means that you do not know if you can wager a certain amount until you have confirmed the bet. So it s only after you have placed it that you will actually know if your bet has been accepted or not. For your arbitrage world this means that you should try to first bet on those websites that show your limit afterwards. Cover your wager as well as you can! If your planned arbitrage can not be processed because e.g. the second bookmaker doesn t accept your wager due to the enforced limit, try to place the second bet with another provider with similar odds, in order to minimize the damage. Do not get tempted to actually gamble! As a rule of thumb you can say that popular tournaments and games tend to have higher limits than smaller leagues or less popular sports. The type of bet (two-way, three way etc) can also be a reason for varying limits. The stake If you don t know how much you should wager, follow the guideline to bet roughly 10% of your total bankroll for a particular arbitrage opportunity. You should always only bet as much as you are comfortable losing. You should bet on around five games per day. You should always be in a position where you can immediately place a wager on a good arbitrage situation, when the opportunity arises. So make sure that your accounts with the various bookmakers are never empty. To get started you should simulate a couple of arbitrage situations, without actually placing bets, just to familiarize yourself. Paper trading without any real capital is a concept used in the stock market, and allows you to practice how to place good stakes, without losing any money. Follow the entire procedure, except that you won t press the confirm button at the end. Note down the wager, check up on the outcome of the game and on your, still fictional, profit. This way you can gain experience, which will make entering the world of arbitrage betting that much easier. After your first successes with paper trading you should feel comfortable to start with betting around 30 per arbitrage opportunity. In worst-case scenarios, there is only very little you can lose with such small amounts. 10

11 Gain experience before getting started Keep track of all your transactions including all your payments (both made and received) as well as of your account balances. Keep a notebook with all your placed bets and profits. This way you don t loose sight of your bankroll and can learn from your mistakes more easily. You will also get to know the system faster. Where should I sign up? You can start with merely five accounts, however it is recommended to begin with around ten. Five accounts give you fewer arbitrage opportunities, but ten accounts could be confusing in the beginning. Our website is configured in such a way that the only arbitrage opportunities shown to you are those you have accounts for. The number of accounts will also depend on the amount available for your bankroll. If you are betting with 500, then ten accounts could be too many. Don t forget that you should always have money distributed on all accounts in order to be able to make efficient use of arbitrage opportunities. 11

12 Hints and advice If you want to be a successful arbitrage better, you will need to keep calm during all situations. Always be sure that you have chosen the right game, the right sport and keep an eye on the odds, the type of bet and of course on your wager. What are the risks? Of course there are also some risks involved in arbitrage betting that you can come across from time to time. Below you can read about the most common ones, how to avoid them and how to deal with them by minimizing your losses if you do get caught up in them. No one ever became a pro overnight Once you have started your arbitrage career, look for the simple arbitrage opportunities. Take your time to learn the techniques required and go slow. Every day there are so many arbitrage possibilities that you can focus on the simplest types of bets at first. If you see a three-way opportunity with a 2,8% arbitrage that has been going on for the past 15minutes let this temptation pass if you re not yet experienced enough. Start with two-way arbitrage opportunities with a 5% arbitrage that has only been open for a few minutes. With these bets you can practice overcoming possible obstacles such as limited wagers or changing odds, and can get a better feel for them. Keep everything under control! Examples for common mistakes are betting on the wrong team by accident or realizing, after having placed a bet with bookmaker1, that you don t have enough means on your account with bookmaker2 to finalize your arbitrage bet. If the bookmaker changes his odds, while you re in action, you could be stuck with an open bet. Always check your bet before confirming. Make sure all your entered data is correct. Check the participants, odds, time of the game and your wager. The order of placing your bets Always place your first bet with the bookmaker who is less sure to accept it. Consider the limit you have with each bookmaker, and don t forget that some of them don t publicly state them. There are some bookmakers who only inform you of their limits once you have placed your bet. With your increasing experience you will figure out which of the bookmakers handle limits this way. 12

13 By placing your first bet with the bookmaker whom you re not quite sure you, you reduce the risk that the first bookmaker accepts your bet but the second one doesn t, which would leave you with an open bet and hence only one possible outcome that would bring you profits. Always go from the bookmaker you are uncertain of, to the one you are certain of, never the other way around! Cancellations A bookmaker can cancel your bet at any given time, by saying that he has e.g. offered the wrong odds. This can mean that he made an accidental typo e.g. switched the odds around, or that he got them wrong completely. The bookmaker reserves these rights in his terms and conditions. Every bookmaker can pronounce a bet as invalid. Errors in their stated odds are rare, but cannot be ruled out completely. Bets can be cancelled both during, as well as after the game. Pay attention if the numbers appear to be unrealistic. They might have been mixed up. For example if you see an arbitrage opportunity of 70% in tennis, it s likely to be incorrect. E.g. if bookmaker1 offers odds of 3,25 on a victory by Player1, but bookmaker2 offers 3,20 on player2 the odds are likely to have been confused. Inform yourself about the odds other bookmakers are offering. If a bookmaker offers unusually high odds, they re likely to be a mistake and will probably be corrected soon. Bonuses and free bets Due to high competition in the online world of betting, bookmakers will often offer promotions such as bonuses or free bets. Frequently these will come in the form of deposit bonuses. Always deposit the amount that gives you the highest possible bonus. If they offer you a 100% bonus on your 100 deposit do it! This is as free as money will get, so take advantage of these offers! New depositor s bonus Some bookmakers offer new depositor s bonuses, certain amounts for simply registering and depositing a specified sum. In these cases you are rewarded additional capital, which you can instantly use! Read the bonus restrictions carefully before depositing any money with a bookmaker. Sometimes there are restrictions involved, like having to use this bonus multiple times with different bets before actually being able to withdraw it from your account. 13

14 Sometimes these bonuses will also be linked to other restrictions such as that you have to bet on an odd over 2,00 in order to be able to withdraw the money. Freebets A free bet differs from the new depositors bonus, but is effectively the same thing money that the bookmaker is giving you for free. For example: you are rewarded a free bet worth 100 and bet the entire amount of a game with odds of 1,50. You win 150. The bookmaker will however only actually pay you 50. Bookmakers will only pay you the profit you made, but not the free bet used to wager. This means that you might not be able to bet on normal arbitrage opportunities. The trick is to try to bet on reasonably high odds. You bet on a tennis match: Bookmaker1 offers Serena Williams s victory at an odd of 1,5 (free bet) Bookmaker2 offers Maria Scharapowa s victory at 1,9 As a normal arbitrage opportunity this would give you an arbitrage of +10,3%. However you won t be receiving your wager from bookmaker1. This leaves your odds at 0,9 instead of 1,90, because, if Williams wins, you won t be able to buy out your wager from your account with bookmaker1. So if you are using the free bet, your arbitrage will be -48,15% instead of +10,3%. However you will still be making a profit with this arbitrage bet: If Williams wins, you will receive 38,50 from bookmaker1 (37,50 x 0.9) and lose 12,50 from bookmaker2. Your profits from this free bet will be at a total of 33,70 (45-5 ). If Scharapowa wins, you will win 33,70 from bookmaker2 (12,50 x 2,7) and lose your free bet with bookmaker1. This totals your profits at 33,70. Drained account what now? Your account with bookmaker1 is empty, however you have won your losses with bookmaker1 on your account with bookmaker2 as well as your winnings from the arbitrage bets! Through this you have even successfully transferred your bonus. This means that you have received your bonus, without having to consider the bonus restrictions. After you have finished your resources with bookmaker1, open a new account with a new bookmaker, and again deposit the sum that guarantees you the highest possible new depositor s bonus. 14

15 Staying down low Remember, you don t want the bookmaker to notice you. Here we will list precautions you should take, to prevent them from giving you a limit or even blocking your account. The longer the bookmaker doesn t notice you, the longer you can use the account without any limitations. There are bookmakers though, that don t follow these guidelines and who won t restrict your account. Withdrawal funds Every withdrawal from your side will trigger a check up from the bookmaker s compliance department. Leave your earnings on your account and only withdraw if it s urgent. Even if you have won a lot already with this specific bookmaker, and your account balance has risen impressively it s more discreet to keep the money in your account. Never withdraw your entire funds at once, if you plan on keeping the account! In order to not destroy your arbitrage earnings, choose the withdrawal option with the least additional costs (often this option is called neteller ). No arbitrary/random numbers If you are using seemingly random sums for your stakes, bookmakers will assume that you are an arbitrage better. A wager of 563,41 seems strange. Especially if all of your bets follow this pattern, it can lead to account restrictions or being blocked. Don t use decimal places. Your stakes should be round numbers, 550 seems more normal than 563,41. 15

16 Arbitration Checklist Especially at the beginning of your arbitrage career, you should carefully check if the arbitrage opportunity adds up before you partake in any bet. Verify the following before confirming your bets: Do the games match up (teams, times etc.) Have the odds stayed the same. An arbitrage of 20% or higher could be an error! Are your funds sufficient on all required accounts Is your wager correct Always bet with the bookmaker you are less certain of first And finally: If you have done everything right, watch your bankroll grow. Even you can profit from arbitrage betting: with your growing experience, you will become more sure of yourself and will constantly earn profits with the help of this e- book. We wish you a lot of success (because you wont be needing any luck!) with your arbitrage career. Your Devilbet.com team 16