FOOTBALL INVESTOR. Member s Guide 2014/15

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1 FOOTBALL INVESTOR Member s Guide 2014/15 V1.0 (September 2014) - 1 -

2 Introduction Welcome to the Football Investor member s guide for the 2014/15 season. This will be the sixth season the service has operated in the public domain and although there have been the inevitable lean periods every sports based service experiences, the long term performance has remained one of the most consistent in the marketplace. The service now comprises of four individual systems:- Football Investor Strike Zone UK Combo Top Flight Euro There are also several sub-systems based on the first two main systems:- Football Investor - Value [15-10] Football Investor SBC82 Strike Zone UK Plus Strike Zone UK Home Bets >=2.15 Strike Zone UK Away Bets >=

3 Football Investor Football Investor was the original system when the service was launched at the start of the 2009/10 season. It is now about to commence its sixth season with four out of the first five seasons returning a profit. The system is ratings based utilising four algorithms to generate match ratings for every game which is then converted into match odds and compared to the market prices to identify value. Strike Zone UK The main difference between the Strike Zone system and Football Investor was the addition of Euro bets from France, Germany, Italy and Spain. The other main difference between the Strike Zone and Football Investor systems is that Strike Zone is ratings based rather than value based. Essentially, this means that selections are determined by the ratings and not the odds although some divisional filters are applied based on odds criteria. The German bets were dropped some time ago and I have now made the decision to drop the remaining Euro bets from the system. The background behind this decision can be read in the recently published 2013/14 End of Season Review of the Strike Zone system. This is the only change I have made from the 2013/14 systems for the 2014/15 season. Combo System The Combo System has proven to be very popular with members since its launch at the commencement of the 2012/13 season. The system comprises of selections that are common to both Football Investor and Strike Zone. The reasoning behind the Combo system is that the two feeder systems have a very different approach to match selection and matches that appear on both systems should in theory be very strong selections. So far, the theory has worked very well in practice. Top Flight Euro The idea behind this system was to exploit the high liquidity markets of the premier divisions of England, France, Italy and Spain. The system is ratings based in similar fashion Football Investor and had returned profits in both live seasons since it was first introduced in 2012/13. Football Investor Value [15-10] The value ratings were devised as a means to identify the selections which offer the most value in relation to market prices. The bets are graded in value bands of 5% increments. The Value [15-10] sub-system comprises of the home bets which contain at least 15% value and the away bets that contain 10% or more value. So far, the jury is still out on this approach as the value filters have removed many of the profits generated by the main Football Investor system since the value ratings were devised for the 2012/13 season

4 Football Investor SBC82 This sub-system was first proposed by the Secret Betting Club in their review of the Football Investor service in issue 82 of the magazine. This sub-system only has one filter Home bets under odds of 2.15 are removed. The filter has worked very well since the 2012/13 season as the removed bets were not profitable. Strike Zone - UK Plus The Strike Zone UK Plus sub-system takes the selections from the main Strike Zone UK system and filters out the home bets at odds under 2.15 and the away bets at odds under The results for the 2012/13 and 2013/14 seasons suggest that this may well be the optimal strategy for this system. Strike Zone - UK Home Bets >=2.15 The same system as Strike Zone UK Plus but only contains the home selections. Strike Zone - UK Away Bets >=2.75 The same system as Strike Zone UK Plus but only contains the away selections

5 Rating Algorithms Algorithm One The original algorithm utilises shots on goal data as an indicator of a team s potential goal scoring ability and the record develops as the season progresses. Teams must have played at least eight rounds of league games before a match can be rated by the algorithm. The record of the home team is subtracted from that of the away team to derive a match rating which is then used to calculate the fair odds for the match. This is then compared to the Pinnacle sports market odds to determine value bets. Not all value bets are flagged as system bets as other filters are applied before a selection is identified. Algorithm Two - Time Weighted This algorithm is different from algorithm one in that it weighs more recent games more heavily than older games as the name suggests. This introduces an element of 'short-term' form into the mix whilst maintaining a full season record for a measure of consistency. Algorithm Three - Recent Form The Recent Form algorithm concentrates on performance in the last six home or away games only with each match awarded the same weighting. It is designed to identify the teams that are in form and offer the best opportunity for profit accumulation. Algorithm Four - Time Weighted Recent Form The Time Weighted Recent Form algorithm is essentially a hybrid of algorithms two and three. It is designed to calculate team records over the previous six matches but more recent games are awarded increased weighting over older games therefore placing even greater emphasis on short-term form

6 Betting Banks The vast majority of the time spent writing this guide was spent running simulations on the live results to determine the optimum bank requirements for level staking. The table below shows the live results for the 2012/13 and 2013/14 seasons and details the results for the two seasons the current models have been in operation. The datasets used don t directly correlate to the proofed results as adjustments have been made to reflect the changes to Strike Zone which have been made for the 2014/15 season. This was necessary to calculate the correct bank sizes. Average No of Bets Per Season Average No of Bets Per Week Average Odds Proofed Bets to Date Proofed Points Profit System - 1X2 Football Investor Strike Zone UK , Combo System Top Flight Euro Football Investor - SBC Strike Zone Plus Strike Zone - Homes >= Strike Zone - Aways >= Football Investor - Value [15%-10%] ROI% Proofed Results ROC% Proofed Results ROI% Target ROC% Target System - 1X2 Football Investor 8.1% 106% 10% 65% Strike Zone UK 7.8% 187% 8% 96% Combo System 15.7% 273% 15% 130% Top Flight Euro 15.7% 113% 15% 55% Football Investor - SBC % 131% 10% 64% Strike Zone Plus 14.9% 328% 15% 165% Strike Zone - Homes >= % 105% 15% 51% Strike Zone - Aways >= % 206% 15% 103% Football Investor - Value [15%-10%] 8.9% 57% 10% 32% - 6 -

7 Betting Bank 0.1% Risk Betting Bank 1% Risk Betting Bank 2.5% Risk Betting Bank 5% Risk System - 1X2 Football Investor Strike Zone UK Combo System Top Flight Euro Football Investor - SBC Strike Zone Plus Strike Zone - Homes >= Strike Zone - Aways >= Football Investor - Value [15%-10%] The above table shows the recommended betting banks for each system at four different risk levels, 0.1%, 1%, 2.5% and 5%. The figures show the percentage chance of bankruptcy over a period of ten seasons for each system / risk combination. Each system had 100,000 simulations ran over ten seasons which equates to one million seasons per system! Which risk level you choose to follow will be determined by your own risk / reward assessment. The official recommendation is 1% risk

8 The three tables below show the bank requirements for Asian Handicap +0 (Draw No Bet) staking. Average No of Bets Per Season Average No of Bets Per Week Average Odds Proofed Bets to Date Proofed Points Profit System - AH +0 Football Investor Strike Zone UK , Combo System Top Flight Euro Football Investor - SBC Strike Zone Plus Strike Zone - Homes >= Strike Zone - Aways >= Football Investor - Value [15%-10%] ROI% Proofed Results ROC% Proofed Results ROI% Target ROC% Target System - AH +0 Football Investor 6.3% 139% 7% 76% Strike Zone UK 4.2% 144% 6% 103% Combo System 10.4% 269% 10% 130% Top Flight Euro 9.3% 74% 10% 40% Football Investor - SBC82 8.7% 205% 7% 83% Strike Zone Plus 11.6% 510% 10% 220% Strike Zone - Homes >= % 185% 10% 85% Strike Zone - Aways >= % 290% 10% 120% Football Investor - Value [15%-10%] 6.1% 57% 7% 32% Betting Bank 0.1% Risk Betting Bank 1% Risk Betting Bank 2.5% Risk Betting Bank 5% Risk System - AH +0 Football Investor Strike Zone UK Combo System Top Flight Euro Football Investor - SBC Strike Zone Plus Strike Zone - Homes >= Strike Zone - Aways >= Football Investor - Value [15%-10%]

9 Publication of Selections Selections will be published at these times:- Monday 7-8pm UK time for Tue / Wed fixtures Thursday 7-8pm UK time for Sat to Mon fixtures The notification of selection publication will be via Twitter and not . It is therefore recommended that members subscribe to the service s Twitter Selections can be obtained by navigating to and clicking on the Members tab at the top and bottom of the page. The direct link is The login page looks like the screen below:

10 Enter the address and password you signed up with and click on the Login button. Click on the Latest Picks link. You can also view your membership details by clicking on the Account Details link

11 Links for the latest picks will be posted at the top of this page in Excel and PDF formats and there will be summary selection information for each system. Recent historic files will also appear at the bottom of the page along with the date of the next selections. Click on the Logout link once you have downloaded the selections

12 League Round 1 Round 9 Premiership 16 August October 2014 Championship 09 August September 2014 League One 09 August September 2014 League Two 09 August September 2014 Conference 09 August September 2014 Scots Prem 09 August October 2014 La Liga 24 August October 2014 Ligue 1 09 August October 2014 Serie A 30 August October 2014 The service doesn t rate matches until round 9 of each league in order for the teams to build up a reliable record with their current playing squads. The key dates are shown in the above table. The 2014/15 season is scheduled to begin with the Conference fixtures on 13 th September so the first picks could be on Thursday 11 th September

13 Member Survey 2013/14 Season The results of the member survey are shown in the screen shots that follow. It shows that the two most popular systems where the Combo and Top Flight Euro. The issue of odds quotation is one that provokes much discussion and is an important factor in determining which services to follow. At the start of the 2013/14 season I decided to adopt a fair odds policy which in practical terms means that I generally only quote prices from Pinnacle sports with the occasional price from Bet365. It was therefore very encouraging to learn that the vast majority of members were able to obtain within 2% of the official odds. The individual profits members achieved made for very interesting reading with the majority finishing between 0 and 5,000 ahead of the game. 12 fortunate members made between 5,000 and 10,000 and two members made in excess of 10,000! Unfortunately, 7 members finished in a loss position which demonstrates just how diverse the service has become in terms of systems and staking options that are available. I see this diversity as a definite positive for the service rather than a negative as it means that we aren t all competing for the same prices and the ultimate endorsement is that 95% of members indicated that they would be re-subscribing for the 2014/15 season. Not surprisingly, the most popular bookmaker members used was Pinnacle Sports with SBO Bet closely behind. There was a good spread of UK bookmaker usage and most members also used the betting exchanges. There are so many bookmakers to choose from these days and with the Asian bookmakers and brokers are becoming more and more popular, I don t envisage getting the bets on will become a problem for the foreseeable future. The final section shows just how global the Football Investor membership has become with members in the UK and Europe as expected but also a sizeable membership in Australia and Asia as well. That concludes the guide for the 2014/15 season. I hope you find it useful, especially the section on betting banks and staking and I wish you all the best for a profitable 2014/15. Stewboss

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