Hard Disk Drives Get Personal

Transcription

1 Hard Disk Drives Get Personal John Rydning Research Manager, Hard Disk Drives Copyright 2007 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.

2 Agenda State of the Personal Storage Market 2003 to Present Benefits to HDD Industry Competitive Alternatives Opportunities / Challenges Brands Home Networks Software Applications IDC s Recommendations and Outlook Sep-07 2

3 IDC s Definition of Personal Storage Devices Personal Storage Device A hard disk drive storage solution attached by an interface connection to either a host device or a network. A Personal Storage device is designed to store digital content that will be shared, restored, or archived. Personal DAS - a personal storage device based on one or more HDDs that is directly attached to and controlled by a host device. Host devices include PCs, PVRs, etc Personal NAS - a personal storage device based on one or more HDDs that is directly attached to an Ethernet network (LAN), contains its own internal file system, and is designed to store and share files. Sep-07 3

4 Personal Storage Used for What? Small Office / Home Office Centralized access for all computing devices Centralized storage Centralized backup Consumers Backup/replicate copy of user data Digital A/V streaming Additional storage for DVRs (DRM an issue) But all of these solutions must be simplistic and error free for the user Sep-07 4

5 Worldwide Personal Storage Unit Shipments, 2002 to M 30.0 M 2002 to 2007 CAGR = 69% 25.0 M 20.0 M 15.0 M 10.0 M 5.0 M e WW PS Unit Shipments Sep-07 5

6 Personal Storage Revenue by Channel $1.45 billion $2.45 billion % 31% 32% 28% 38% 40% HDD OEMs Other Brands HDD OEMs Other Brands D.I.Y./Whitebox D.I.Y./Whitebox Sep-07 6

7 Personal Storage Device Growth Driver: Digital Images & Video 4,000 Worldwide Digital Images and Video Archived on Personal Storage Devices TB's 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, % CAGR Video Digital Images Source: IDC WW Digital Imaging and Solutions Research, Doc. # s and Sep-07 7

8 Personal Storage Device Market Benefits to the HDD Industry Provides a channel for HDD OEMs to launch, ramp, and generate revenue from new HDD programs without waiting to complete customer qualification processes. Personal Storage devices leverage several HDD form factors. Margin uplift opportunity for HDD OEMs. The average capacity of Personal Storage device HDDs is higher than the average capacity HDD for many other applications creates additional demand for heads, media, suspensions Sep-07 8

9 HDD Average Capacity Comparison 3.5inch ATA HDD 2.5inch ATA HDD GBs 200 GBs Average 3.5inch HDD Capacity Internal to PC Average 3.5inch HDD Capacity External in PS Device Average 2.5inch HDD Capacity Internal to PC Average 2.5inch HDD Capacity External in PS Device Sep-07 9

10 Current Backup Media Source: IDC s 2007 Worldwide Personal Storage Survey 50% 40% 30% SOHO Consumer 20% 10% 0% (n=1,263) CD/DVD External HDD Network Server USB Thumb Drive Floppy Tape 2 nd Internal HDD Internet Online Service Jazz or Rev Sep-07 10

11 Personal Storage Device WW Penetration Rates 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Installed PS Devices as a Percent of WW Installed Consumer PCs Note: assumes five year life for PS devices Sep-07 11

12 What About Online Storage Services? Is there an opportunity for storage service providers? Storage Worldwide 52% 48% (n=1263) Sep-07 12

13 Online Storage: Why not? Source: IDC s 2007 Worldwide Personal Storage Survey Privacy Cost Availability Too much data Lack of Broadband Other Consumer (n=295) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Sep-07 13

14 Big Pipe an Issue for Online Storage Service Providers Backup 6GB of Data Network Technology Mbps* Minutes* 56K Modem HPNA Blue Tooth T b USB a 1394a USB 2.0 Ethernet *Theoretical Best Case with no overhead , Days! ~ Days! <1min Sep-07 14

15 Challenges: Battle of the Brands Personal Storage brand recognition matters Brand preference differs by region Brand preference differs for consumers vs. SOHOs IDC s survey results indicate that the top five brand choices often include companies that currently are not offering a Personal Storage device! Sep-07 15

16 Challenges Outside the PC and Storage Aisles Moving out of the PC/storage aisle brings the Personal Storage device into competition with other companies and industries: Home entertainment systems Traditional brands associated with home systems Companies historically experienced with delivering consumer application solutions Sep-07 16

17 Networking in the Home (2007) One in four networked homes WW use wired Ethernet More than 70% of WW networked homes are now wireless and it increases to over 90% by 2010 <5% of WW networked homes are other Source: IDC Doc # , September, 2006 Worldwide Home Networking Forecast and Analysis Sep-07 17

18 The Have s and the Have-nots Sep-07 18

19 The Have s and the Have-nots Home users don t have an IT Staff Home users don t understand The Digital home is getting MORE complex, not less Sep-07 19

20 Personal Storage Devices Still Ripe for Killer Application Consumers want simplicity People buy products because of the applications (not the hardware) ipods Wii Personal Storage applications are practical and functional, but there is still room for cool Opportunities exist for the service and interface Seamless communication and interface with multiple devices The value is in the application Sep-07 20

21 Ideal Personal Storage Home Network Device? Data Aggregator Broadband Sep-07 21

22 Strong Competition from Application Players with Strong Brands Application diversity Arrows indicate channels and size shows relative strength for delivering Personal NAS solutions. Diamonds indicate form factors associated with each channel. Service Providers Cable DSL WiMax 3G Comcast AT&T Verizon TimeWarner Cable Cox Charter Content Providers Best Buy Circuit City Wal-Mart Target Apple Online Retail Set-Top Boxes Residential Gateways IP-based Services Cloud Application innovation Google, Yahoo! MSN, News Corp. PCs DVRs Game consoles Personal NAS Media server IP-based Services Source: IDC Consumer Markets Home Networking Program Sep-07 22

23 Personal Digital Universe Archive Challenges Personal storage devices store information that is personal Personal photos Personal video Personal Storage software application opportunities: Offline storage/archival Provide help (metadata?) to find old records Enable migration of content from device-to-device every 5 years Enable access to old file formats Keep data safe from Datajacking (security, encryption) Sep-07 23

24 Recommendations and Outlook Capacity and simplicity will remain the key drivers for continued consumer and small business adoption Therefore, 3.5in. formfactor and USB devices will remain popular. Mobility is also important for many users, as is powering the device through the interface connection Therefore, 2.5in., and to a lesser extent 1.8in., devices will gain some share. Brands matter Online storage is an opportunity, perhaps a future one Focus on user applications for differentiation and value Personal storage will be a strong market Personal storage is an important category for the HDD industry, but HDD industry wins no matter what device succeeds in the home Sep-07 24

25 IDC Worldwide Personal Storage Device Revenue Forecast $6.0 $5.0 PS Revenue (billions) $4.0 $3.0 $2.0 $1.0 $ Personal Storage Revenue Sep-07 25

26 WW Personal Storage Contribution to WW HDD Forecast HDD Units (millions) HDDs into PS HDD Other Sep-07 26

27 Questions? Please me at Sep-07 27