Odysseus-Strategie. of the Global Economy

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Odysseus-Strategie. of the Global Economy"

Transcription

1 Behavioral Analysis & Trends Finance in Aktion Überliste Infrastructure Dich Selbst: The Backbone Die Odysseus-Strategie of the Global Economy

2 PortfolioPraxis: Akademie 2

3 Analysis & Trends Content 4 Infrastructure The Backbone of the Global Economy 5 Globalisation: Global trade as growth driver 6 The future belongs to the city 6 Energy the key to economic development 8 Utilities: high need for investment to safeguard living standards 1 Transport growth countries in the fast lane 11 Telecommunications 3.5 billion potential new users 12 Social infrastructure an important factor 12 Enormous need for infrastructure investment worldwide Imprint Allianz Global Investors GmbH Bockenheimer Landstr Frankfurt am Main Global Capital Markets & Thematic Research Hans-Jörg Naumer (hjn) Ann-Katrin Petersen (akp) Stefan Scheurer (st) Data origin if not otherwise noted: Thomson Reuters Datastream Allianz Global Investors 3

4 Analysis & Trends Infrastructure The Backbone of the Global Economy In many places, global demographic change is creating the need for investment in infrastructure. This need is particularly great in the emerging countries, but investment is required in the industrial countries, too, in order to ensure quality of life and economic growth. November 26: a breakdown in the German power grid leaves about 1 million people in Europe in the dark. September 211: a massive power outage leaves five million people without electricity, paralyzing large sections of the south-western US and Mexico. July 212: India is hit by one of the largest power outages in more than 1 years. More than 6 million people are affected. These examples show that electricity blackouts don t just happen in developing countries, they can also occur in the industrial countries of Europe and in the US. Why? The answer is globalisation. The global population is growing. People are increasingly mobile, demand for goods and services is increasing and energy consumption is on the rise. It is clear that the infrastructure in place cannot meet the challenge of these developments. Governments need to invest millions in new streets, bridges, clinics, airports and social services in order to meet these requirements. What is infrastructure? There is no standard definition of the term infrastructure. In general, infrastructure is considered to mean the basic facilities needed to ensure the func tioning of a country s economy. This includes the following areas (see Chart 1). Chart 1: What is infrastructure? Economic infrastructure Social infrastructure Transport Energy & utilities Telecommunications (Toll-)roads Bridges & tunnels Airports & seaports Railways Underground railways Logistics centres Oil and gas pipelines Gas/electricity supply Gas/electricity networks Water supply Water distribution Waste-water disposal Renewable energy Cable networks Radio masts Satellite systems Schools Hospitals Prisons Courthouses Sports stadiums Exhibition halls Source: Ernst & Young, CFA Institute, Allianz Global Investors Capital Markets & Thematic Research 4

5 Chart 2: High contribution of emerging markets to growth Development of world population, 195 to 25 (in millions) World Population (in millions) 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Source: United Nations (UN), World Population Prospects: The 21 Revision, October 211, Allianz Global Investors Capital Markets & Thematic Research Globalisation: Global trade as growth driver According to United Nations statistics, the world population was around 2.5 billion in 195; it has now risen to more than 7 billion and it is expected to exceed 9 billion by 25 (see Chart 2). Global population growth continues inexorably, with five babies being born every two seconds. Growth in the industrial countries is much less dynamic than in the emerging economies, and particularly in the developing countries. The UN estimates that the share of the world population of the industrial countries will decline from almost 19 % in 25 to 14 % in 25. The share of Developed Countries Emerging Markets Developing Regions Forecast the emerging countries will remain virtually unchanged at about 67 %, while the developing countries share will rise from just under 12 % to 19 %. The increasing world population and growing globalisation are driving global trade. A steadily growing and increasingly prosperous society is demanding more goods and services. This can be seen in the fact that global trade has risen twice as fast as world economic growth since According to the World Bank, low-income countries will grow twice as fast as high-income countries in the coming decades (see Chart 3). Chart 3: Globalisation World trade as a driver of growth World trade has grown twice as the economy since 1987 Global trade has grown twice as fast as the global economy since indexed Global GDP ; real ; in US$ Global Trade and Services ; real ; in US$ Source: Datastream, Allianz Global Investors Capital Markets & Thematic Research, August

6 Analysis & Trends 1 Source: McKinsey Global Institute: Preparing for China s Urban Billion, 28. The future belongs to the city In 198, 39 % of the world s population lived in cities; now, more than half live in major cities, and this figure is expected to rise to 67 % by 25, according to a United Nations forecast. The trend is clear: the future belongs to the city. In Europe (74 %), North America (83 %) and Latin America (8 %) the share of the population living in cities will already be high in 215, but it will rise even more by 25. However, Asia and Africa are undergoing amazingly rapid development, and more than half the population is expected to live in cities by 25 (see Chart 4). The result of this urbanisation is the rise of megacities, a trend that now seems to be irreversible. While just five cities had a population of at least 1 million in 1975 (New York, which is the oldest megacity, Mexico City, Sao Paulo, Tokyo and Shanghai), the UN expects there to be 22 by 215, 17 of which will be in developing countries. In 212, Asia is already home to seven of the world s ten largest megacities. The industrial and service metropolises will see a particular need for replacement investment in infrastructure facilities in the coming years. The emerging and developing countries, in contrast, are faced with severe congestion, environmental and socioeconomic problems, as well as an extreme infrastructure deficit. In order to counteract these developments, a wide range of investments is needed in utilities, construction, telecommunications, transport and social infrastructure. The example of China makes this especially clear. One billion people will be living in Chinese cities in 23, according to McKinsey. By that time, there will be 221 Chinese cities with a population of more than a million people (in Europe the figure now is just 35). In the next 2 years, 4 billion square metres of living and working space will be created in 5 million buildings, 5, of which will be skyscrapers (this corresponds to 1 times the volume in New York City). 1 Energy the key to economic development In addition, the strong growth of the emerging countries has greatly increased the need for investment in the area of energy infrastructure in recent years. And the need will probably continue to grow. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) estimates that, in the period from 23 to 23, China will have to invest about USD 2 trillion in power plants for electricity generation and distribution, because energy consumption in China is growing at a rate of 4.5 % annually, among the fastest increases in the emerging countries (India: 4.9 %) (see Chart 5). Chart 4: More than half of the world s population live in cities Proportion of city-dwellers in % of the world population 1 % 9 % 8 % 7 % 6 % 5 % 4 % 3 % 2 % 1 % % 82 % 74 % 67 % 89 % 83 % 74 % 64 % 87 % 8 % 64 % 58 % 48 % 54 % 67 % 39 % 37 % 27 % 28 % Europe North America Latin America Asia Africa World (f) 25 (f) f = forecast Source: United Nations (UN), World Urbanization Prospects: The 211 Revision, March 212, Allianz Global Investors Capital Markets & Thematic Research 6

7 Chart 5: Electricity consumption is rising steadily particularly in developing countries India s annual growth rate for power consumption is 4.9 % between in THW 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, OECD Emerging Markets China India Latin America Middle East Africa (f) 23 (f) f = forecast Source: OECD (26), Allianz Global Investors Capital Markets & Thematic Research But the industrial countries also have a lot of work to do in terms of infrastructure: According to the OECD, the US and Canada are expected to invest nearly as much in their electricity infrastructure as China in the years to come (see Chart 6). Past failures are the main reason that this investment is necessary. Existing plants have not been adequately maintained and investment has not been made in replacement plants. Chart 6: Cumulated expected investment requirements in electricity, worldwide 23 23* Infrastructure is not only something that affects the new emerging world China North America OECD Europe East Asia South Asia OECD Pacific Latin America Transition Economies Africa Middle East 5 1, 1,5 2, 2,5 Generation Transmission Distribution in bn USD * based on a constant local price series by its 2 USD value. Source: OECD (26), Allianz Global Investors Capital Markets & Thematic Research 7

8 Analysis & Trends 2 Source: OECD, Infrastructure to 23, Source: OECD, Infrastructure to 23, 26. Utilities: high need for investment to safeguard living standards Take water, for example. Water covers about 71 % of the earth s surface. A bottleneck for a commodity that is so important to people is not really expected to come about in the future. But in addition to the fact that only.3 % of the world s water supply is actually available for human use, it is important to note: that only about 83 % of the world s population has access to clean water and 58 % to sanitation. The need for investment seems to be greatest in the developing countries (see Chart 7). that in 225 the agricultural sector (7 75 % share of global water consumption), industry (2 %) and households (5 1 %) will together use up to 4 % more water than is the case today to maintain the standard of living (see Chart 8). that global water availability has fallen since 195 and will continue to decline until 23. Example: By 23, per capita water availability in the industrial countries will be 4 % lower than in A high level of investment is required to find new sources (see Chart 9). 2 Infrastructure investments are necessary to improve the supply infrastructure, in particular. In London, for example, up to 5 % of the water produced leaks away because the water pipes date, in part, from the 19 th century. The OECD forecasts that an annual volume of investment in infrastructure of over USD 6 billion for the next 2 years is needed to ensure the water supply. But sanitation is just as important as the water supply. The greatest demand is in the emerging countries. China is expected to spend more than USD 2 billion by 225, India about USD 1 billion and, for the US, the figure will probably be USD 15 billion..3 Chart 7: Almost full access in industrialised nations Proportion of the population with access to a water supply and sanitary facilities (in %) in % World Developed countries Eurasia Developing regions water supply sanity equipment Source: OECD (26), Allianz Global Investors Capital Markets & Thematic Research 8

9 Chart 8: Water consumption is rising rapidly along with costs and investment Global water consumption of households (km 3 /year) in km 3 /year 6, Forecast 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Losses (reservoirs) Industry Water for residential areas Agriculture Source: OECD (26), Allianz Global Investors Capital Markets & Thematic Research Chart 9: Availability of water is declining further Expected global availability of water* in % (f) 22 (f) 23 (f) Developed countries Developing countries - humid Developing countries - arid f = forecast * availability per head compared with 195, in % Source: OECD (26), Allianz Global Investors Capital Markets & Thematic Research 9

10 Analysis & Trends In 2 there were 4 vehicles for every 1 people worldwide. The OECD expects the number of vehicles to nearly double by 23. And in Brazil, China, India, Indonesia and Russia the number of vehicles is expected to triple. Nevertheless, only one in seven people in these countries will own a vehicle (see Chart 1). 4 Source: Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (India). 5 Source: Transport Corp. of India, Indian Institute of Management, Calcutta. Transport growth countries in the fast lane Beijing s airport increased its passenger numbers from 27.1 million to 77.4 million from 22 to 211, an annual rise of slightly over 25 %. This is not an isolated case, although growth rates of the world s 15 biggest airports are much lower at 1 % to 15 % according to the Airport Council International. In China alone, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects that China will see an increase of almost 9 million passengers from 21 to 215. Given this growth, China plans to build 56 new airports by the end of 216, which will put the total number at around 24. The trend is clear: people are more mobile, and this fuels globalisation. The picture is the same for road transport. The emerging countries are also in the fast lane in terms of expected expenditures. The OECD forecasts that these countries will increase annual investment in road construction alone from its current level of around USD 1 billion to nearly USD 7 billion in 23. Globally, around USD 2 billion will be required annually for the maintenance of existing roads and the construction of new roads (see Chart 11). For example, India is planning to triple the length of its expressways (an increase of 1,6 km) in the coming years. 4 By way of comparison, China already has 74, km of expressways. 5 Chart 1: By 23 Only One in Seven Will Have a Vehicle in Developing Countries Vehicles per 1 persons, (f) 22 (f) 23 (f) OECD World Big 5 (rhs)* Non-OECD (rhs) f = forecast * China, India, Russia, Brasil, Indonesia Source: OECD (26), Allianz Global Investors Capital Markets & Thematic Research 1

11 Chart 11: Not only in road construction are emerging markets in the fast lane Road construction, 2 23, in billion US Dollar USD bn USD bn (f) 22 (f) 23 (f) OECD World Big 5 (rhs)* Non-OECD (rhs) f = forecast * China, India, Russia, Brasil, Indonesia Source: OECD (26), Allianz Global Investors Capital Markets & Thematic Research Telecommunications 3.5 billion potential new users Given its penetration thus far, it is reasonable to conclude that the impact of the Internet is only just beginning to be felt, even if daily life and the working world have already radically changed in many ways. This is because it is primarily people from countries with more developed economies who have had access to cyberspace. In the US nearly 8 % of the population is already on line, while the figure is a bit over 6 % in Europe, and somewhat more than 25 % in Asia. The Asian countries not only represent more than half the global population, they make up nearly 5 % of all Internet users. The annual growth rates since 2 are impressive: the number of Internet users in Asia increases by 2 % every year, and in Africa, which has thus far been extremely underrepresented, annual growth stands at more than 3 % (see Chart 12). Chart 12: Internet usage by region The impact of the Internet is only now being felt in % Penetration (% of population) % of World Growth p.a. Africa Asia Europe Middle East North America Latin America/Carib. Source: Internet World Stats, 211, Allianz Global Investors Capital Markets & Thematic Research 11

12 Analysis & Trends Chart 13: Water needs the most Investment Expected global expenditure on infrastructure per year in billion US Dollar, 2 3 USD bn 1,2 1, Road Rail Telecoms Electricity Water 2 1 (f) 21 2 (f) 22 3 (f) f = forecast Source: OECD (26), Allianz Global Investors Capital Markets & Thematic Research Social infrastructure an important factor Any review of the topic of infrastructure should not ignore so-called social infrastructure. Educational facilities and hospitals are needed for the vital role they play in the economic system; the lines between economic and social infrastructure overlap: for example, communications networks support learning processes. Enormous need for infrastructure investment worldwide The OECD estimates average worldwide investment volume for new infrastructure, or for maintenance of existing infrastructure, to be around USD 1.8 trillion annually (!) from 21 to 23 (see Chart 13): The water sector is expected to see the highest expenditure (USD 9 billion per year). Around USD 27 billion will be spent on road construction per year. About USD 21 billion annually will go to the power supply. Whether it s the energy supply, the improvement of utilities and transport infrastructure or telecommunications a country s infrastructure requires constant maintenance and renewal. Globalisation, coupled with worldwide demographic change, will make enormous infrastructure investments necessary in the coming decades in both the industrial countries and the growth countries. Stefan Scheurer 12

13 Investments involve risk. The value of an investment and the income from it may fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the principal invested. Equities can be volatile and, unlike bonds, do not offer a fixed rate of return. Bond prices will normally decline as interest rates rise. High-yield or junk bonds have lower credit ratings and involve a greater risk to principal. Dividend-paying stocks are not guaranteed to continue to pay dividends. Investments in emerging markets may be more volatile than investments in more developed markets. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. No offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities, nor investment advice / strategy or recommendation is made herein. In making investment decisions, investors should not rely solely on this material but should seek independent professional advice. Statements concerning financial market trends are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate. Forecasts are inherently limited and should not be relied upon as an indicator of future results. The views and opinions expressed herein, which are subject to change without notice, are those of the issuer and / or its affiliated companies at the time of publication. The data used is derived from various sources, and assumed to be correct and reliable, but it has not been independently verified; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and no liability is assumed for any direct or consequential losses arising from its use, unless caused by gross negligence or willful misconduct. The conditions of any underlying offer or contract that may have been, or will be, made or concluded, shall prevail. The duplication, publication, extraction or transmission of the contents, irrespective of the form, is not permitted. This is a marketing communication. This material has not been reviewed by any regulatory authorities, and is published for information only, and where used in mainland China, only as supporting materials to the offshore investment products offered by commercial banks under the Qualified Domestic Institutional Investors scheme pursuant to applicable rules and regulations. This document is being distributed by the following Allianz Global Investors companies: RCM Capital Management LLC, an investment adviser registered with the US Securities and Exchange Commission; Allianz Global Investors Distributors LLC, a broker-dealer registered with the US Securities and Exchange Commission; Allianz Global Investors Europe GmbH, a licensed provider of financial services (Finanzdienstleistungsinstitut) in Germany, subject to the supervision of the German Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) and an investment adviser registered with the US Securities and Exchange Commission; RCM (UK) Ltd., which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the UK; Allianz Global Investors Hong Kong Ltd. and RCM Asia Pacific Ltd., licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission; Allianz Global Investors Singapore Ltd., regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore [Company Registration No Z]; RCM Capital Management Pty Limited, licensed by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission; and RCM Japan Co., Ltd., registered in Japan as a Financial Instruments Dealer. 13

14 Analysis & Trends Notes 14

15 Notes 15

16 Allianz Global Investors GmbH Bockenheimer Landstr Frankfurt am Main September 212

Financial Repression: A Driving Force for Mergers and Acquisitions?

Financial Repression: A Driving Force for Mergers and Acquisitions? Strategy / Investment Financial Repression: A Driving Force for Mergers and Acquisitions? International capital markets have seen a growing number of corporate mergers and acquisitions (M&A) over the past

More information

Bonds. Valuation and Measures of Sensitivity

Bonds. Valuation and Measures of Sensitivity Bonds Valuation and Measures of Sensitivity Maturity management is essential, especially if a risk profile is asymmetric, as is typically the case when interest rates are low. Hans-Jörg Naumer Global Head

More information

Bond strategies Behind or in front of the curve?

Bond strategies Behind or in front of the curve? Bonds Bond strategies Behind or in front of the curve? Understand. Act. 2 Bonds Content 4 On the curve 5 In front of the curve 7 The curve in motion 7 Government bond strategies 9 Spread strategies Imprint

More information

Active Management in Fixed Income: Conviction is Key

Active Management in Fixed Income: Conviction is Key Active Management in Fixed Income: Conviction is Key Active Management Central banks seem likely to remain accommodative and keep monetary policy rates lower for a while to come. Consequently, real policy

More information

Benefiting from Merger Arbitrage

Benefiting from Merger Arbitrage Benefiting from Merger Arbitrage Alternatives Dr Tim Wooge Senior Product Developer Liquid Alternatives Allianz Global Investors Risk diversification with conventional assets has become increasingly difficult

More information

Allianz US Equity Fund

Allianz US Equity Fund For fund distributors and professional investors only Allianz US Equity Fund Adviser Report September 03 Factfile 3 August 03 Fund manager: Seung Minn (since April 007) Launch date: 0 June 00 Fund currency:

More information

High-yield corporate bonds

High-yield corporate bonds Analysis & Trends: High-yield corporate bonds Higher bond yields with reasonable credit risk Understand. Act. Analysis & Trends Decisive Insights for forwardlooking investment strategies 2 Analysis & Trends

More information

Duration Risk: Anatomy of (modern) bond bear markets

Duration Risk: Anatomy of (modern) bond bear markets Risk. Management. Reward. Duration Risk: Anatomy of (modern) bond bear markets Historical lessons for today s bond management (Part1: Introduction) Understand. Act. 2 Duration Risk: Anatomy of (modern)

More information

MSCI Core Infrastructure Indexes Methodology

MSCI Core Infrastructure Indexes Methodology Index Methodology MSCI Core Infrastructure Indexes Methodology January 2015 msci.com Contents 1 Introduction... 3 2 Constructing MSCI Core Infrastructure Indexes... 3 2.1 Country and Constituent Selection...

More information

MACQUARIE GLOBAL INVESTMENTS INVESTING IN THEIR FUTURE: EMERGING MARKETS INFRASTRUCTURE

MACQUARIE GLOBAL INVESTMENTS INVESTING IN THEIR FUTURE: EMERGING MARKETS INFRASTRUCTURE MACQUARIE GLOBAL INVESTMENTS INVESTING IN THEIR FUTURE: EMERGING MARKETS INFRASTRUCTURE Emerging opportunities The Sao Paolo Metro serves the 11 million residents of Brazil s largest city. The transit

More information

World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights. www.worldenergyoutlook.org International Energy Agency

World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights. www.worldenergyoutlook.org International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 27: China and India Insights www.worldenergyoutlook.org International Energy Agency Why Focus on China & India? Increase in World Primary Energy Demand, Imports & Energy-Related CO

More information

Global Investing 2013 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 3/1/2013

Global Investing 2013 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 3/1/2013 Global Investing 2013 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 3/1/2013 World Stock Market Capitalization Year-end 2012 18.5% 9.6% United States International: Other Europe United Kingdom Japan Other Pacific

More information

Seeking a More Efficient Fixed Income Portfolio with Asia Bonds

Seeking a More Efficient Fixed Income Portfolio with Asia Bonds Seeking a More Efficient Fixed Income Portfolio with Asia s Seeking a More Efficient Fixed Income Portfolio with Asia s Drawing upon different drivers for performance, Asia fixed income may improve risk-return

More information

Emerging Markets Access the world s emerging economies with HSBC protected investments

Emerging Markets Access the world s emerging economies with HSBC protected investments Emerging Markets Access the world s emerging economies with HSBC protected investments The new engine of global growth Home to over 80% of the world s population, emerging market countries are undergoing

More information

WORLDWIDE RETAIL ECOMMERCE SALES: EMARKETER S UPDATED ESTIMATES AND FORECAST THROUGH 2019

WORLDWIDE RETAIL ECOMMERCE SALES: EMARKETER S UPDATED ESTIMATES AND FORECAST THROUGH 2019 WORLDWIDE RETAIL ECOMMERCE SALES: EMARKETER S UPDATED ESTIMATES AND FORECAST THROUGH 2019 Worldwide retail sales including in-store and internet purchases will surpass $22 trillion in 2015, up 5.6% from

More information

Oil-Price Drop Boosts Growth, Especially in Europe

Oil-Price Drop Boosts Growth, Especially in Europe 3 Volume 7, Issue 3 Allianz Global Investors Insights March 2015 Global View Oil-Price Drop Boosts Growth, Especially in Europe The oil price has roughly halved since last summer. Which markets will benefit

More information

Energy Perspectives 2015 Long-term macro and market outlook. Press seminar, Oslo, 4 June 2015 Eirik Wærness, Chief economist

Energy Perspectives 2015 Long-term macro and market outlook. Press seminar, Oslo, 4 June 2015 Eirik Wærness, Chief economist Energy Perspectives 215 Long-term macro and market outlook Press seminar, Oslo, June 215 Eirik Wærness, Chief economist 2 Energy Perspectives 215 Macro and market outlook to 2 www.statoil.com/energyperspectives

More information

Insurance market outlook

Insurance market outlook Munich Re Economic Research 2 May 2013 Global economic recovery provides stimulus to the insurance industry long-term perspective positive as well Once a year, MR Economic Research produces long-term forecasts

More information

Global Exhibition on Services

Global Exhibition on Services Ministry of Commerce & Industry Global Exhibition on Services Concept Note 1 GES Concept Note Global Exhibition on Services (GES) - Concept Note The Government of India, Ministry of Commerce and Industry

More information

THIS DOCUMENT IS IMPORTANT AND REQUIRES YOUR IMMEDIATE ATTENTION. IF IN DOUBT, PLEASE SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE.

THIS DOCUMENT IS IMPORTANT AND REQUIRES YOUR IMMEDIATE ATTENTION. IF IN DOUBT, PLEASE SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. Fidelity Funds Société d Investissement à Capital Variable 2a, Rue Albert Borschette B.P. 2174 L-1021 Luxembourg R.C.S. B34036 Tél: +352 250 404 (1) Fax: +352 26 38 39 38 THIS DOCUMENT IS IMPORTANT AND

More information

2014 BP Madrid forum on energy & sustainability BP 2014

2014 BP Madrid forum on energy & sustainability BP 2014 14 BP Madrid forum on energy & sustainability BP 14 Contents Global energy trends Liquid fuels Refining implications European focus Energy Outlook 35 BP 14 Primary energy consumption growth slows and the

More information

Conclusions from the Allianz Global Investors Investment Forum

Conclusions from the Allianz Global Investors Investment Forum Conclusions from the Allianz Global Investors Investment Forum Investment Forum New York, September 2015 At our most recent semi-annual Investment Forum, we reviewed the key hypotheses of our strategic

More information

Overview. carried interest. Copyright 2014 by Cambridge Associates LLC. All rights reserved.

Overview. carried interest. Copyright 2014 by Cambridge Associates LLC. All rights reserved. Overview Cambridge Associates LLC Global ex U.S. Developed and Emerging Markets Private Equity and Venture Capital Benchmark Commentary Quarter Ending September 30, 2013 During the third quarter, in U.S.

More information

Consumer Credit Worldwide at year end 2012

Consumer Credit Worldwide at year end 2012 Consumer Credit Worldwide at year end 2012 Introduction For the fifth consecutive year, Crédit Agricole Consumer Finance has published the Consumer Credit Overview, its yearly report on the international

More information

Market Making for Exchange Traded Funds. Corporates & Markets

Market Making for Exchange Traded Funds. Corporates & Markets Market Making for Exchange Traded Funds Corporates & Markets Commerzbank your trusted partner in the ETF market Since the start of the new millennium, exchange traded funds (ETFs) have experienced phenomenal

More information

Evaluating the Australian Outlook through a Global Lens

Evaluating the Australian Outlook through a Global Lens Evaluating the Australian Outlook through a Global Lens Chris Siniakov Managing Director, Fixed Income International Bond Yields 4.00% 2-Year Government Yields as at 15 January 2015 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00%

More information

Emerging markets (%)

Emerging markets (%) Insights Emerging Markets Understanding the risks October 21 Please visit jpmorgan.com/institutional for access to all of our Insights publications. Emerging markets offer compelling long-term return potential,

More information

Session 5b Aging Asia 5b.1) Aging Asia: Asset Rich, Income Poor? Key risks to retirement income security and investment implications

Session 5b Aging Asia 5b.1) Aging Asia: Asset Rich, Income Poor? Key risks to retirement income security and investment implications Session 5b Aging Asia 5b.1) Aging Asia: Asset Rich, Income Poor? Key risks to retirement income security and investment implications Michael Dommermuth 26/06/2014 Sourced: Manulife Asset Management 1 Aging

More information

Bonds. Corporate. Bonds. Understand. Act.

Bonds. Corporate. Bonds. Understand. Act. Bonds Corporate Bonds Understand. Act. Analysen & Trends Decisive Insights for forwardlooking investment strategies 2 Content 4 Corporate Bonds 5 Corporate Credit 6 Corporate Credit Value Drivers 12 Change

More information

Trends in Foreign Direct Investment Inflows

Trends in Foreign Direct Investment Inflows Trends in Foreign Direct Investment Inflows This article briefly examines recent trends in foreign direct investment in Australia, both in the context of the longer-term perspective and relative to the

More information

The Banking Union in a Nutshell

The Banking Union in a Nutshell The Banking Union in a Nutshell EMU Ann-Katrin Petersen Assistant Vice President Allianz Global Investors The European financial landscape is about to undergo a total facelift. On 15 April 2014 just in

More information

Hong Kong. abc. *Employed by a non-us affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

Hong Kong. abc. *Employed by a non-us affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations July 212 Steven Sun* Equity Strategist The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited +852 2822 4298 stevensun@hsbc.com.hk Roger Xie* Equity Strategist The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation

More information

Global Real Estate Outlook

Global Real Estate Outlook Global Real Estate Outlook August 2014 The Hierarchy of Economic Performance, 2014-2015 China Indonesia India Poland South Korea Turkey Australia Mexico United Kingdom Sweden United States Canada South

More information

World Energy Outlook 2009. Presentation to the Press London, 10 November 2009

World Energy Outlook 2009. Presentation to the Press London, 10 November 2009 World Energy Outlook 29 Presentation to the Press London, 1 November 29 The context The worst economic slump since the 2 nd World War & signs of recovery but how fast? An oil price collapse & then a rebound

More information

Global infrastructure a growth story

Global infrastructure a growth story 0 0 0 0 Chapter Global infrastructure a growth story David Rickards, Macquarie Bank Drivers of growth We need an investment of about US$0bn in the next seven to eight years to realise our ambition to provide

More information

WORLD. Geographic Trend Report for GMAT Examinees

WORLD. Geographic Trend Report for GMAT Examinees 2011 WORLD Geographic Trend Report for GMAT Examinees WORLD Geographic Trend Report for GMAT Examinees The World Geographic Trend Report for GMAT Examinees identifies mobility trends among GMAT examinees

More information

WORLD ENERGY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2014 FACTSHEET OVERVIEW

WORLD ENERGY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2014 FACTSHEET OVERVIEW OVERVIEW More than $1.6 trillion was invested in 2013 in energy supply, a figure that has more than doubled in real terms since 2000, and a further $130 billion to improve energy efficiency. Renewables

More information

JAPAN IN THE SHADOW OF CHINA?

JAPAN IN THE SHADOW OF CHINA? JAPAN IN THE SHADOW OF CHINA? Mattias Bergman Vice President Swedish Trade Council IFN 13 august AGENDA How important is Japan today? What is changing? Areas with special interest for Swedish companies

More information

Historical lessons from Federal Reserve rate-hike cycles

Historical lessons from Federal Reserve rate-hike cycles Investment Forum Historical lessons from Federal Reserve rate-hike cycles Martin Hochstein, CFA Senior Strategist Macro / Fixed Income Allianz Global Investors Discussions about the timing and magnitude

More information

Working Paper Research Unit Global Issues Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

Working Paper Research Unit Global Issues Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs. Working Paper Research Unit Global Issues Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs Friedemann Müller Paper presented at KAS CFIE CFISAE AHK International

More information

Urbanization and Urban Air Pollution

Urbanization and Urban Air Pollution 10 Urbanization and Urban Air Pollution Urbanization is a process of relative growth in a country s urban population accompanied by an even faster increase in the economic, political, and cultural importance

More information

NATURAL GAS DEMAND AND SUPPLY Long Term Outlook to 2030

NATURAL GAS DEMAND AND SUPPLY Long Term Outlook to 2030 1. Background On different occasions, Eurogas is asked to present its views on the future of the European gas industry. The forecasts are mainly needed for conferences and bilateral discussions with European

More information

GCC in times of cheap oil: an opportunity for economic reform and diversification

GCC in times of cheap oil: an opportunity for economic reform and diversification GCC in times of cheap oil: an opportunity for economic reform and diversification Kevin Körner & Oliver Masetti GCC in times of cheap oil: an opportunity for economic reform and diversification, June 215

More information

Long-term macroeconomic forecasts Key trends to 2050

Long-term macroeconomic forecasts Key trends to 2050 A special report from The Economist Intelligence Unit www.eiu.com Contents Overview 2 Top ten economies in 5 at market exchange rates 3 The rise of Asia continues 4 Global dominance of the top three economies

More information

Global Equity Trading Volumes Surge 36% in 1 st half 2015 driven by Mainland China

Global Equity Trading Volumes Surge 36% in 1 st half 2015 driven by Mainland China Global Equity Trading Volumes Surge 36% in 1 st half 215 driven by Mainland China Global Equity Trading Volumes Ex Mainland China Up 5% Mainland China Share Trading Vols Rise 166% in H1 215 vs H2 214 The

More information

Chasing growth in a constrained environment

Chasing growth in a constrained environment Chasing growth in a constrained environment Bernard Fontana CEO June 14, 2012 Agenda 1 Drivers of demand growth 2 Allocating the asset footprint according to demand 3 Growth from customer excellence &

More information

Global Investing: The Importance of Currency Returns and Currency Hedging

Global Investing: The Importance of Currency Returns and Currency Hedging Global Investing: The Importance of Currency Returns and Currency Hedging There is a continuing trend for investors to reduce their home bias in equity allocation and increase the allocation to international

More information

The Center Cannot Hold:

The Center Cannot Hold: The Center Cannot Hold: Singapore to overtake Switzerland as leading Offshore Hub by 2020 April, 2013 Offshore Centers: 2012 Private Banking Handbook The global private banking industry has AuM of $19.3

More information

Behavioral Finance: Two Minds at Work

Behavioral Finance: Two Minds at Work Behavioral Finance in Action Behavioral Finance: Two Minds at Work Understand. Act. Decisive Insights for forwardlooking investment strategies Behavioral finance is an extension of behavioral economics,

More information

Deutsche Bank Research. The Pacific Alliance. A bright spot in Latin America May 2014. Deutsche Bank Research

Deutsche Bank Research. The Pacific Alliance. A bright spot in Latin America May 2014. Deutsche Bank Research The Pacific Alliance A bright spot in Latin America May 2014 Agenda 1 2 3 What is it about? Combined strengths Challenges ahead 1 What is it about? A next generation free trade agreement Mexico Colombia

More information

Stephen Worn Global CTO & Board Director DatacenterDynamics

Stephen Worn Global CTO & Board Director DatacenterDynamics Infrastructure, Technology & Investment Trends: Which Global Gateways are best placed to lead into the Digital World? HKEx Eco-System Conference March 20 2014 Stephen Worn Global CTO & Board Director DatacenterDynamics

More information

II. Merchandise trade

II. Merchandise trade II. Merchandise trade Merchandise trade increased by 5 per cent in volume in 211. The strongest momentum was achieved by trade in manufactured goods, which grew by.5 per cent. Key developments in 211:

More information

GLOBAL DATA CENTER SPACE 2013

GLOBAL DATA CENTER SPACE 2013 2013 CENSUS REPORT: Global Data Center Space 2013 GLOBAL DATA CENTER SPACE 2013 Top 3 data center markets account for almost half of all global data center space. In spite of a slowdown in the amount of

More information

Good afternoon, and thanks to the Energy Dialogue for your kind invitation to speak today.

Good afternoon, and thanks to the Energy Dialogue for your kind invitation to speak today. Good afternoon, and thanks to the Energy Dialogue for your kind invitation to speak today. Europe is at the forefront of a global transition to a cleaner energy economy. At the same time globally energy

More information

MSCI CHINA AND USA INTERNET TOP 50 EQUAL WEIGHTED INDEX

MSCI CHINA AND USA INTERNET TOP 50 EQUAL WEIGHTED INDEX INDEX METHODOLOGY MSCI CHINA AND USA INTERNET TOP 50 EQUAL WEIGHTED INDEX September 2014 SEPTEMBER 2014 CONTENTS 1 Introduction... 3 2 Constructing the MSCI China and USA Internet Top 50 Equal Weighted

More information

Future of HR: implications for Russia

Future of HR: implications for Russia www.pwc.ru/en/hr-consulting January 2014 Future of HR: implications for Russia How are global trends changing HR in Russia and CIS countries? Document Overview Introduction Future of HR 4 Methodology

More information

Indian E-Retail Congress 2013

Indian E-Retail Congress 2013 The Retail Track The Omni Channel Retail Supply Chain Indian E-Retail Congress 2013 Subhendu Roy Principal Consumer Industries and Retail Practice 15 February, 2013 Disclaimer This document is exclusively

More information

LNG Poised to Significantly Increase its Share of Global Gas Market David Wood February 2004 Petroleum Review p.38-39

LNG Poised to Significantly Increase its Share of Global Gas Market David Wood February 2004 Petroleum Review p.38-39 LNG Poised to Significantly Increase its Share of Global Gas Market David Wood February 2004 Petroleum Review p.38-39 For the past few years LNG has experienced high levels of activity and investment in

More information

GLOBAL DATA CENTER INVESTMENT 2013

GLOBAL DATA CENTER INVESTMENT 2013 2013 CENSUS REPORT: Global Data Center Investment 2013 GLOBAL DATA CENTER INVESTMENT 2013 2013 - Healthy Growth in Data Center Investment Globally Globally, the data center industry has continued to maintain

More information

Benchmarking Travel & Tourism Global Summary

Benchmarking Travel & Tourism Global Summary Benchmarking Travel & Tourism Global Summary How does Travel & Tourism compare to other sectors? Sponsored by: Summary of Findings, November 2013 Outline Introduction... 3 Summary of research structure..

More information

Canada s Energy Sector in a Changing Global Market. Kristi Varangu Director, International Energy Division March 10, 2014

Canada s Energy Sector in a Changing Global Market. Kristi Varangu Director, International Energy Division March 10, 2014 Canada s Energy Sector in a Changing Global Market Kristi Varangu Director, International Energy Division March 10, 2014 2 Purpose Illustrate the profound changes that are taking place in global and North

More information

2. UK Government debt and borrowing

2. UK Government debt and borrowing 2. UK Government debt and borrowing How well do you understand the current UK debt position and the options open to Government to reduce the deficit? This leaflet gives you a general background to the

More information

A Bird s Eye View of Global Real Estate Markets: 2012 Update

A Bird s Eye View of Global Real Estate Markets: 2012 Update A Bird s Eye View of Global Real Estate Markets: 2012 Update FEBRUARY 2012 US Research Paul Fiorilla Vice President paul.fiorilla@prudential.com Manidipa Kapas, CFA Director manidipa.kapas@prudential.com

More information

The foreign exchange and derivatives markets in Hong Kong

The foreign exchange and derivatives markets in Hong Kong The foreign exchange and derivatives markets in Hong Kong by the Banking Supervision Department The results of the latest triennial global survey of turnover in the markets for foreign exchange (FX) and

More information

Rating Action: Moody's changes Nexteer's Ba1 ratings outlook to positive Global Credit Research - 24 Nov 2015

Rating Action: Moody's changes Nexteer's Ba1 ratings outlook to positive Global Credit Research - 24 Nov 2015 Rating Action: Moody's changes Nexteer's Ba1 ratings outlook to positive Global Credit Research - 24 Nov 2015 Hong Kong, November 24, 2015 -- Moody's Investors Service has changed to positive from stable

More information

20 August 2013. Can the dividend

20 August 2013. Can the dividend 2 August 213 Can the dividend d theme thrive in a rising rates environment? Grace Tam Vice President Global Market Strategist J.P. Morgan Funds Ben Luk Market Analyst Global Market Strategy Team J.P. Morgan

More information

Estimating road and railway infrastructure capacity and costs

Estimating road and railway infrastructure capacity and costs Estimating road and railway infrastructure capacity and costs Alex Körner, John Dulac alexander.koerner@iea.org Focus on infrastructure IEA infrastructure partnerships: UIC (rail) IRF (roads) UITP (public

More information

Ghana South Korea United States. Real GDP per capita (2005 dollars) Per centage of 1960 real GDP per capita. 2009 real GDP per capita

Ghana South Korea United States. Real GDP per capita (2005 dollars) Per centage of 1960 real GDP per capita. 2009 real GDP per capita Long-Run Economic Growth chapter: 24 9 ECONOMICS MACROECONOMICS 1. The accompanying table shows data from the Penn World Table, Version 7.0, for real GDP in 2005 U.S. dollars for Argentina, Ghana, South

More information

EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS ASIA INVESTOR BEHAVIOUR STUDY 2015 INDONESIA. October 2015. eastspring.co.id

EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS ASIA INVESTOR BEHAVIOUR STUDY 2015 INDONESIA. October 2015. eastspring.co.id EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS ASIA INVESTOR BEHAVIOUR STUDY 2015 INDONESIA October 2015 eastspring.co.id 2 Asia Investor Behaviour Study 2015 - Indonesia Asia Investor Behaviour Study 2015 - Indonesia CONTENTS

More information

Investors shun robo-advice despite drive to launch online solutions

Investors shun robo-advice despite drive to launch online solutions Investors shun robo-advice despite drive to launch online solutions The UK s wealthiest investors are rejecting robo-advice solutions despite rising numbers of start-ups and established financial services

More information

Future drivers and trends in dairy and food markets

Future drivers and trends in dairy and food markets Future drivers and trends in dairy and food markets IAL 2011 August 2011 Michael Harvey, Senior Analyst Road map Topic 1 Future drivers and trends in dairy and food markets Topic 2 Where is the dairy sector

More information

STATS WINDOW. Retail industry

STATS WINDOW. Retail industry Volume 8, Issue 4, October 2015 STATS WINDOW The Pacific Business Review International has taken an initiative to start a section which will provide a snapshot of major Global & Indian economic indicators

More information

Cross-border ecommerce

Cross-border ecommerce Cross-border ecommerce Opening doors for Victorian businesses around the world ecommerce into China 9 March 2016 Charles Thompson General Manager, International Australia Post StarTrack Group A changing

More information

The Evolution of High- Yield Bonds into a Vital Asset Class

The Evolution of High- Yield Bonds into a Vital Asset Class The Evolution of High- Yield Bonds into a Vital Asset Class High-yield bonds have turned into a legitimate asset class that is larger, better established and less risky than in years past. Understand.

More information

Foreign Exchange Investments Discover the World of Currencies. Private Banking USA

Foreign Exchange Investments Discover the World of Currencies. Private Banking USA Foreign Exchange Investments Discover the World of Currencies Credit Suisse Securities (USA) llc Private Banking USA 2 Foreign exchange: There s no ignoring the largest market in the world. Introduction

More information

U.S. Trade Overview, 2013

U.S. Trade Overview, 2013 U.S. Trade Overview, 213 Stephanie Han & Natalie Soroka Trade and Economic Analysis Industry and Analysis Department of Commerce International Trade Administration October 214 Trade: A Vital Part of the

More information

DOMINION GLOBALIZATION WORKSHOP

DOMINION GLOBALIZATION WORKSHOP DOMINION GLOBALIZATION WORKSHOP Financial Sector Dennis Encarnation Harvard University For more information, please contact me at www.encarnation.com SERVICES Financial Services & Capital Markets Topics:

More information

Foreign Direct Investment

Foreign Direct Investment Germany Reports Record High of New Investment Projects Germany is a very attractive location for foreign investors. Germany Trade & Invest (GTAI) and the economic development agencies of the German Federal

More information

Prospects for the container shipping industry

Prospects for the container shipping industry Prospects for the container shipping industry IQPC Container Terminal Business 2009 Hamburg, December 8, 2008 Eric Heymann Sector Research Think Tank of Deutsche Bank Group Agenda 1 Weak economic environment

More information

Seizing Opportunities in Asia and Beyond

Seizing Opportunities in Asia and Beyond Seizing Opportunities in Asia and Beyond Asia, the region of growth opportunities 30% Projected contribution from Asia (excluding Japan) to global GDP in 2020. Today, Asia is the world s fastest growing

More information

Electricity market drivers

Electricity market drivers Daniel Assandri Head of Power Systems ABB (China) Ltd Electricity market drivers March 2008 Global T&D Market Drivers ABB Power Systems division - slide # 2 ABB s view on and market drivers The Americas

More information

Global Client Group The Gateway to AWM

Global Client Group The Gateway to AWM Global Client Group The Gateway to AWM January 2013 For professional investors only Content 1 2 3 Deutsche Bank and Asset Global Client Group Our product and service offering 1 Deutsche Bank A global partner

More information

Building the Clean Energy Super Highway

Building the Clean Energy Super Highway Building the Clean Energy Super Highway The Development of the Global Smart Grid and the Next Innovation Infrastructure A presentation for the Fletcher School of Law & Diplomacy April 25, 2011 Drew Bennett,

More information

Trend Analysis & Scenario Planning

Trend Analysis & Scenario Planning Trend Analysis & Scenario Planning Thinking about future infrastructure to support higher living standards June 2013 Hosted by NIAB members with the NIU team of Carrie Cooke, Richard Ward and Roger Fairclough

More information

Paying Heed to Politics, Doom Loops and Bubbles

Paying Heed to Politics, Doom Loops and Bubbles 5 Volume 7, Issue 5 Allianz Global Investors Insights May 2015 Global View Paying Heed to Politics, Doom Loops and Bubbles The ongoing rise in asset prices which was both predictable and predicted continues

More information

From 1 June 2015. Application Forms for Investment Funds

From 1 June 2015. Application Forms for Investment Funds From 1 June 2015 Application Forms for Investment Funds Welcome Thank you for considering an investment with Allianz Global Investors. Depending on the nature of your investment you will have to fill in

More information

2016 Outlook: Volatility Ahead

2016 Outlook: Volatility Ahead 12 Volume 7, Issue 12 Allianz Global Investors Insights December 2015 Global View 2016 Outlook: Volatility Ahead The opportunities and risks on the horizon for 2016 are similar to those that emerged in

More information

Strategic Roadmap Development for international education in the PTE sector

Strategic Roadmap Development for international education in the PTE sector Strategic Roadmap Development for international education in the PTE sector What are Strategic Roadmaps? Strategic Roadmaps are planning tools that identify strategic goals and pathways for growth in international

More information

Point Topic s Broadband Operators and Tariffs

Point Topic s Broadband Operators and Tariffs 1 Point Topic s Broadband Operators and Tariffs Broadband tariff benchmarks: Q2 2013 July 2013 Point Topic Ltd 73 Farringdon Road London EC1M 3JQ, UK Tel. +44 (0) 20 3301 3303 Email tariffs@point-topic.com

More information

Exploring the links between water and economic growth

Exploring the links between water and economic growth Exploring the links between water and economic growth A report prepared for HSBC by Frontier Economics: Executive Summary June 2012 June 2012 The water challenge Population and economic growth are putting

More information

UNIT TRUST Risk Rating

UNIT TRUST Risk Rating 1 * LYXOR ASSET MANAGEMENT ADEQUITY TRUST- LYXOR CHINA A FUND Medium-to-high 2 * LYXOR ASSET MANAGEMENT ADEQUITY TRUST- LYXOR DYNAMIC WATER FUND Medium-to-high 3 * LYXOR ASSET MANAGEMENT ADEQUITY TRUST-

More information

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08* FDI Portfolio Investment Other investment

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08* FDI Portfolio Investment Other investment Chartbook Contact: Sebastian Becker +49 69 91-3664 Global Risk Analysis The unwinding of Yen carry trades Some empirical evidence 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 October 31, 28 Many years before the sub-prime crisis hit

More information

Emerging Market Economies A Structural Reduction of Risk

Emerging Market Economies A Structural Reduction of Risk Emerging Market Economies A Structural Reduction of Risk Alan Dorsey, CFA Managing Director, Head of Investment Strategy & Risk Juliana Hadas, CFA Senior Vice President Investment Strategy & Risk Parth

More information

Point Topic s Broadband Operators and Tariffs

Point Topic s Broadband Operators and Tariffs 1 Point Topic s Broadband Operators and Tariffs Broadband tariff benchmarks: Q1 2013 May 2013 Point Topic Ltd 73 Farringdon Road London EC1M 3JQ, UK Tel. +44 (0) 20 3301 3305 Email tariffs@point-topic.com

More information

Global Insurance CONTENTS. Report Synopsis. Industry Surveys. March 2006. 1. Executive Summary 10. 2. Highlights 12

Global Insurance CONTENTS. Report Synopsis. Industry Surveys. March 2006. 1. Executive Summary 10. 2. Highlights 12 Industry Surveys Global Insurance www.reportsure.com March 2006 Report Synopsis In 2004 insurance premiums accounted for nearly 8% of global GDP, with a value of USD 3,244 billion. The industry grew by

More information

Legg Mason Global Investment Survey

Legg Mason Global Investment Survey Legg Mason Investment Survey When worldwide talk about money, what dominates the conversation? Where do they see opportunity, and where do they see peril? To learn more, Legg Mason surveyed affluent in

More information

MSCI Dividend Masters Indexes Methodology

MSCI Dividend Masters Indexes Methodology Index Methodology MSCI es Methodology July 2014 msci.com Contents 1 Introduction... 3 2 Index Construction Methodology... 3 Section 2.1: Applicable Universe... 3 Section 2.2: Security Selection... 3 Section

More information

MSCI Global Minimum Volatility Indices Methodology

MSCI Global Minimum Volatility Indices Methodology MSCI Global Minimum Volatility Indices Methodology Table of Contents Section 1: Introduction... 3 Section 2: Characteristics of MSCI Minimum Volatility Indices... 3 Section 3: Constructing the MSCI Minimum

More information

Global payments trends: Challenges amid rebounding revenues

Global payments trends: Challenges amid rebounding revenues 34 McKinsey on Payments September 2013 Global payments trends: Challenges amid rebounding revenues Global payments revenue rebounded to $1.34 trillion in 2011, a steep increase from 2009 s $1.1 trillion.

More information