A revolução dos não convencionais: panorama global

Transcription

1 A revolução dos não convencionais: panorama global XI Seminário Internacional Britcham de Energia - Tema: Não Convencionais September 10th, 2013 Strategy with substance Delivering commercial

2 Unconventional Revolution Uncons Manifesto: The reward must be worth the risks Wood Mackenzie 2

3 Agenda 1 Wood Mackenzie Introduction 2 The Global Unconventional Revolution 3 The US Experience Part One: The Rewards 4 The US Experience Part Two: The Risks 5 Global Activity 6 Implications for Brazil Wood Mackenzie 3

4 Wood Mackenzie offers best-in-class research and information services developed by teams of experts across the energy and minerals value chains MACRO VIEW Macro Oils Oil market fundamentals to 2030 Global Oil Supply Tool Crude oil supply analysis to 2030 Energy Markets Energy matrix analysis by country EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION Exploration Service Commercial analysis across 400 prospective plays globally Upstream Service Upstream asset s and analysis PathFinder Exploration and production database integrated with a GIS maping interface Global Economic Model Modeling tool to evaluate global assets and companies Unconventional Plays Qualitative and quantitative analysis of unconventional assets worldwide GAS & POWER North American Gas Natural gas market fundamentals for USA, Canada and Mexico European Gas & Power European natural gas & power market fundamentals Southeast Asia Gas & Power Southeast Asia natural gas and power market fundamentals LNG Service Financial and economic analysis on a project-by-project level across the LNG value chain from upstream to markets Global Gas Service Global natural gas market fundamentals REFINING Product Market Service Global market fundamentals for oil products and derivatives Refinery Evaluation Model Refining evaluation model covering all global refinery assets CAT (Corporate Analysis Tool) Comparative analysis of portfolios of 2500 companies worldwide via extensive database CORPORATE VIEW Corporate Service Qualitative analysis of 44 E&P companies (Super Majors, Independents & NOCs) M&A Service E&P sector M&A analysis covering all deals over $100MM Wood Mackenzie 4

5 Our consultants advise clients across 60 countries Calgary Edinburgh Guildford London Moscow Annapolis Houston Boston New York Algiers Dubai New Delhi Beijing Seoul Tokyo Abuja Kuala Lumpur Singapore Lima Jakarta La Paz Rio de Janeiro Perth Brisbane Sydney Wood Mackenzie Offices Wood Mackenzie Consulting Experience Wood Mackenzie 5

6 We serve clients across the energy and minerals value chain Wood Mackenzie has had the privledge to serve over 800 clients, including: Supermajors Majors Independents Junior E&P NOCs/Gov t Power / Utilities Mining Wood Mackenzie 6

7 Wood Mac has executed a variety of consulting projects in Latin America Exemplos de Projetos Recentes Mexico and Carribean Regional NOC Uncon Plays Strategy Regional NOC Exploration Strategy Investment Bank Gas Commercialization Global Mining Co. Energy & LNG Procurement Power Developer LNG Procurement & Negotiation Industrial Phosphates / Gas Strategy Northern South America Regional NOC Uncon Plays Strategy Regional NOC E&P Strategy Review Regional NOC Gas Monetization Regional NOC Gas Commercialization Regional NOC Corporate Restructuring Regional NOC Above Ground Risk Government Hydrocarbons Master Plan Regional NOC E&P Restructuring Russian NOC Upstream Entry Canadian Jr. IOC Uncon Partnering Strategy Gas Distribution Co. Fuel Competitiveness Government G&P Project Development Asian Integrated Super Major LNG Marketing Co. & Utilities Brazil Cement Co. Brazil E&P Co. Brazil Mining Co. IOC Regional NOC Brazil E&P Co. Regional NOC Supermajor Southern Cone Brazil Pipeline Due Diligence Uncon Gas Case Studies LNG Supply Strategy & Negotiations Energy Procurement Uncon Gas Value Creation Uncon Gas Entry Strategy Brazil Gas Market Entry Gas Monetization Strategy Uncon Gas Investor Pitch LNG Strategy Briefing Brazil Gas Industry Deep Dive Wood Mackenzie 7

8 Wood Mac is developing a multi-client study designed to help participants in Brazil s gas markets make strategic decisions Brazil s Natural Gas: Profit or Peril? Navigating a paradigm shift in Brazil's changing gas market Wood Mackenzie 8

9 Agenda 1 Wood Mackenzie Introduction 2 The Global Unconventional Revolution 3 The US Experience Part One: The Rewards 4 The US Experience Part Two: The Risks 5 Global Activity Uncons Manifesto: The reward must be worth the risks 6 Implications for Brazil Wood Mackenzie 9

10 Bcf / d XI Seminário Internacional Britcham de Energia - Tema: Não Convencionais September 10 th, 2013 The Global Unconventional Revolution has just begun Global Unconventional Gas Production Potential (by Resource Type) Historic Forecast Shale Gas Coalbed Methane Tight Gas Source: Wood Mackenzie Global Gas Service Wood Mackenzie 10

11 Bcf / d XI Seminário Internacional Britcham de Energia - Tema: Não Convencionais September 10 th, 2013 and should spread globally Global Unconventional Gas Production Potential (by Regional Markets) Historic Forecast Rest of World North America Source: Wood Mackenzie Global Gas Service Wood Mackenzie 11

12 Agenda 1 Wood Mackenzie Introduction 2 The Global Unconventional Revolution 3 The US Experience Part One: The Rewards 4 The US Experience Part Two: The Risks 5 Global Activity Uncons Manifesto: The reward must be worth the risks 6 Implications for Brazil Wood Mackenzie 12

13 The road to success is long, expensive, difficult, and risky Drilling to maintain production Continuous improvement Sustainable operations Experiment with technologies Understand the geology Identify and Test Dozens of Shale Plays Derisk and Delineate Identify a concept Secure acreage Drill wildcats Mobilize the supply chain Build organizational capability Manage service companies Secure take-away capacity Wood Mackenzie 13

14 27 N 27 N 28 N 28 N 29 N 29 N 30 N 30 N XI Seminário Internacional Britcham de Energia - Tema: Não Convencionais September 10 th, 2013 The Eagle Ford was explored collectively by dozens of different companies 101 W 100 W Eagle Ford Play: First 120 Wells 99 W 98 W 97 W Co-opetition (n): cooperation between competitors in pursuit of common interests to maximize value for the industry MEXICO CANADA U.S.A. Maverick Basin Gas-Condensate Eagle Laredo San Antonio Ford U.S.A. Texas Window Dry Gas Window Oil Window Gulf Coast Basin Corpus Christi Wells by Operator Anadarko Antares Common Res. ConocoPhillips Dan Hughes EOG Source: Wood Mackenzie El Paso Enduring Res. GeoSouthern Laredo Energy Lewis Pet. Modern Exploraiton Murphy Petrohawk Pioneer Rosetta Res. SM Energy San Isidro TXCO 101 W 100 W km W 98 W 97 W Wood Mackenzie 14

15 Approximate US$/acre XI Seminário Internacional Britcham de Energia - Tema: Não Convencionais September 10 th, 2013 Then it began attracting a large amount of capital Eagle Ford Specific M&A Activity ( ) 25,000 20,000 Deals motivated by seller seeking to monetize proven assets (transitioning to Exploit Stage) Talisman acquisition of Common kicks off resource frenzy Marathon 15,000 10,000 5,000 Early pilot stage deals, average $2.8K / acre CNOOC - Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Note: Size of bubble is proportional to acreage interest sold Wood Mackenzie 15

16 US$ millions Production ('000 boepd) XI Seminário Internacional Britcham de Energia - Tema: Não Convencionais September 10 th, 2013 which was necessary to fund an aggressive ramp up in drilling Eagle Ford Wells CAPEX by Company 30,000 (3,477) 25,000 (2,512) 20,000 15,000 (1,619) 10,000 5,000 (592) (8) (45) Source: Wood Mackenzie Lower 48 Service (X,XXX) = Net Wells Drilled Other Covered Companies... ConocoPhillips EOG Resources Production 16

17 Agenda 1 Wood Mackenzie Introduction 2 The Global Unconventional Revolution 3 The US Experience Part One: The Rewards 4 The US Experience Part Two: The Risks 5 Global Activity Uncons Manifesto: The reward must be worth the risks 6 Implications for Brazil Wood Mackenzie 17

18 Failed US Shale Plays Arguably Non-commercial US Shale Plays Known Wells Estimated Cost (US$ millions) Barnett Woodford 23 $380 Conasauga 28 $98 Mancos 22 $97 Gothic 14 $78 Baxter 19 $67 Palo Duro 20 $60 Floyd 7 $28 Cody 6 $18 Pierre 7 $16 Collingwood 1 $10 Total 147 $850 Wood Mackenzie 18

19 40 N Wyoming 40 N 32 N 32 N 42 N 42 N 33 N 33 N Bend Arch 34 N 34 N XI Seminário Internacional Britcham de Energia - Tema: Não Convencionais September 10 th, 2013 Plays exhibit either limited core areas or heterogeneous sweet spotting Unconventional Plays Core Areas and Sweet Spots 99 W 98 W 97 W Ft. Worth Basin Barnett 55-75% Commercial Red River Arch Archer Montague Eagle Ford Sweet Spots Clay Jack Oil Window Young Palo Pinto Stephens Erath Eastland Texas Parker Hood Wise Quachita Structural Front Somervell Bosque Fort Worth Tarrant Johnson Muenster Arch Denton Viola Limestone Ellis Dallas Dallas Haynesville Hill 10% Core Area Johnson Carbon 106 W Campbell Powder River Basin Converse Weston Niobrara Platte South Dakota Sioux Structures Goshen Laramie 104 W DJ Niobrara Scotts Bluff Banner Denver Julesburg Basin Kimball Cheyenne Fort Worth Basin Jackson Natrona Larimer Colorado Nebraska Weld Logan km W 98 W 97 W Source: Wood Mackenzie Fort Collins Grand Boulder Loveland Washington Yuma Boulder Morgan Gilpin Adams Denver Arapahoe Douglas Elbert Commerciality Lincoln Commercial Non-Commercial km W 104 W Source: Wood Mackenzie, ESRI Topography 19

20 During development, unconventionals are exposed to high commercial risk Unconventional vs. Conventional Development Project Sensitivities Oil Price Liquid Volumes CAPEX OPEX Heidelberg Downside Heidelberg Upside Bakken Downside Bakken Upside -150% -125% -100% -75% -50% -25% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% Change in project NPV from a 20% change in Price / Volume / CAPEX / OPEX 20

21 Agenda 1 Wood Mackenzie Introduction 2 The Global Unconventional Revolution 3 The US Experience Part One: The Rewards 4 The US Experience Part Two: The Risks 5 Global Activity Uncons Global Manifesto: Where is the reward worth the risks? 6 Implications for Brazil Wood Mackenzie 21

22 Key Success Factors for Unconventionals Market Fiscal Terms Knowledge of Geology Infrastructure Land Access Supply Chain Regulation Social Support Wood Mackenzie 22

23 Global unconventional activity heats up Select International Unconventional Pilot Announcements Date Company Country Amount (millions) 4/4/2012 Colombia $50 Comments Initial three test wells to earn 50% of Canacol interest in VMM block 6/18/2012 Ukraine $55 Initial exploration campaign in Lviv Basin 6/20/2012 Australia $210 Three phased exploration campaign 11/7/2012 Australia AUS $183 Three stage Georgina basin campaign 12/6/2012 Russia $300 Partnership with Rosneft, core lab, pilot wells 1/23/2013 Ukraine $200 Seismic and pilot wells work commitment 7/16/2013 Argentina $1, pilot well program on initial 5,000 acres Wood Mackenzie 23

24 China appears well placed for co-opetition with a strong set of companies Sichuan Basin Established basin with conventional fields and infrastructure Companies in Core Prospective Areas Recent Shale Blocks Second shale gas licensing round attracts entrepreneurial interest New Entrants Shenhua Tongren Energy China Coal Geo. Eng. Huaying Shanxi Energy Beijing Taitantongyuan Huadian Henan Provincial CSG HK & China Gas Hunan Huasheng Sinopec Chongqing Energy Chongqing Mineral Res Dart Energy 24

25 Agenda 1 Wood Mackenzie Introduction 2 The Global Unconventional Revolution 3 The US Experience Part One: The Rewards 4 The US Experience Part Two: The Risks 5 Global Activity Brazil Uncons Manifesto: Will the reward be worth the risks? 6 Implications for Brazil Wood Mackenzie 25

26 Is Brazil poised to join the revolution? Reconcavo Sao Francisco (Licensed Blocks) Portiguar

27 Conclusion Uncons Manifesto: The reward must be worth the risks Co-opetition (n): cooperation between competitors in pursuit of common interests to maximize value for the industry Wood Mackenzie 27

28 Contacts Preston Cody Sr. Managing Consultant, Upstream Tel.: Pedro Camarota Region Manager, Southern Cone Tel.: Wood Mackenzie 28

29 Wood Mackenzie Disclaimer This presentation has been prepared by Wood Mackenzie Consulting. It has not been prepared for the benefit of any particular person and may not be relied upon by any person or other third party. If, notwithstanding the foregoing, this presentation is relied upon by any person, Wood Mackenzie does not accept, and disclaims, all liability for loss and damage suffered as a result. The information contained in these slides may be retained by recipients. However, these slides and the contents of this presentation may not be disclosed to any other person or published by any means without Wood Mackenzie Consulting prior written permission. Wood Mackenzie 29

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