TALISMAN ENERGY INC. TELEPHONE CONFERENCE CALL TO REVIEW 2009 THIRD QUARTER RESULTS
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1 Refer to Talisman s advisories in the November 3, 2009 news release concerning forward looking statements and non-gaap measures. TALISMAN ENERGY INC. TELEPHONE CONFERENCE CALL TO REVIEW 2009 THIRD QUARTER RESULTS John A. Manzoni, President and Chief Executive Officer L. Scott Thomson, Executive Vice-President Financial and Chief Financial Officer November 3, 2009 Ladies and gentlemen, welcome, and thank you for joining our third quarter conference call. With me today in Calgary are Scott Thomson, Paul Smith, Nick Walker, Bob Rooney and Phil Dolan and joining today by telephone are Paul Blakeley and Richard Herbert. After Scott and I have made some comments about the results and outlook, we will be very happy to answer your questions. Third Quarter Results Let me begin by giving an overview of the results to pick up some points I believe will be helpful to you. The results this quarter reflect a lower price environment from a year ago and a relatively low production level, which represents a low point during the year, but does not materially change our outlook for the full year. Our realized prices during the quarter were up from the prior quarter by just under $2.50/bbl equivalent at $50.29/bbl, but our netbacks were down about 25 cents to $27.16/bbl. The reason the netbacks were down was higher royalties, arising from higher production in Asia, where the royalties are a bit higher and a very slight increase in unit operating costs, which is due to the lower production rates rather than the absolute levels of costs. Cash from operations during the quarter was $838 million, compared to $900 million last quarter, which reflects the reduction in netbacks and the lower production levels in the quarter. Reported net income for the quarter was $30 million and earnings from continuing operations, which strips out certain non-operating items, was $155 million for the quarter, up from $125 million last quarter. Free cash flow for the quarter was a negative $183 million, reflecting our normal capital expenditure program and the small acquisitions we made in Papua New Guinea which amounted to about $220 million. This compares to the nearly $1.4 billion inflow last quarter, which reflected our disposition program during 2Q. Although capital spending year to date has been broadly in line with our guidance, as Scott will explain in a moment, we will spend more than $3.6 billion capital this year by the time the year is complete.
2 We continue to retain cash on the balance sheet, although this is now reducing slightly from last quarter and currently sits at about $2 billion. Scott will give you some indication on how we see that moving for the rest of the year. Turning to our operations, I am pleased by our continuing performance in safety. Year-to-date, we have a lost time injury frequency 48% below last year, despite substantial change in our businesses which can sometimes distract people from this important priority. Production for the quarter was 401,000 bbls/d. This is down from the second quarter, mainly in the UK, which produced 74,000 bbls/d in 3Q. The UK production was impacted by planned shutdown activity, which effectively took about 14,000 bbls/d out of service during the quarter. There were also some other operational issues, which are now fixed, but which impacted our UK production by about 6,000 bbls/d for the quarter. The other operational issue of note during 3Q was here in Canada, where our Sukunka gas plant was down for a while which reduced production by about 3,000 bbls/d equivalent for the quarter. That is now fixed and back up in operation. Looking forward for the year, I have said on previous calls that I expected to be at about 430,000 bbls/d for the year, with downside limited to 5%. The reason I have maintained the downside is because we have been selling assets through the year and the final outcome of that was uncertain. We now have a clearer picture of how much disposal activity we are likely to complete this year and we expect to complete about 8,000 bbls/day annualized, over and above the Netherlands and Trinidad disposals, which were in our plans from the start. Through the year, we have sold several Western Canadian properties, including the Bakken. We are still completing deals this year, but I think we can now estimate the final impact. So now accounting for the sales we have made and plan to make, I believe our overall production for the year will be between 423,000 and 426,000 bbls/d. Turning to costs, its always complex to analyze quarter on quarter changes because, of course, the activity levels change and in particular with all the shutdown activity this last quarter. You ll see from the numbers, our operating costs are more or less flat both with last quarter and a year ago, despite increased activity levels. Unit costs have increased marginally this quarter, more to do with the production levels than the absolute cost levels. Looking through different lenses, we have set targets for reductions in various categories of operating and capital costs of around 10% and I believe we are seeing 50 60% of that achieved so far. We re taking a range of actions to achieve these reductions, including negotiations with our largest suppliers, reductions in contractor rates, general overhead reductions and process improvements in our operating areas. A general comment on the cost base is that in certain areas, we re starting to see a leveling off in rate reductions. This is becoming clear in chemical prices as an example, where it looks like they have reached a bottom, with reductions ranging, depending on the product, between 2% and 15%. Our operating areas are focused hard on costs. I will mention later the progress we re making in reducing well costs in our unconventional activity. Let me now ask Scott to give you a bit more on the quarter results and then I d like to spend a few minutes on our strategic progress and outlook before answering your questions.
3 Thanks John. I d like to make some comments about our financial results, balance sheet and progress on focusing the portfolio and hedging position. Cash flow in the quarter was approximately $838 million compared to $900 million in the immediately preceding quarter, due principally to lower volumes, a reduction in netbacks and slightly lower proceeds from our hedges. Year-to-date, we have generated $3 billion of cash flow compared to $4.6 billion in This decrease in cash flow is primarily attributable to lower commodity prices partially offset by significant cash inflows from our hedging program. Earnings from continuing operations, which excludes certain non-operational items, were $155 million in the quarter compared to $125 million in Q2, due principally to lower depreciation expense and foreign exchange gains from our significant Canadian cash balance. Year-to-date, earnings from continuing operations have decreased from $1.85 billion in 2008 to $564 million in 2009 reflecting the 43% year-on-year decline in realized commodity prices, partially offset by realized gains from our hedging program. Cash taxes of approximately $175 million in Q3 were approximately equivalent to cash taxes in Q2, since the lower production volumes in Q3 were offset by lower exploration tax deductions. In Q4 we expect cash taxes to double relative to Q3 because of expected production volume increases. Cash exploration and development spending year-to-date was $2.7 billion, of which approximately $950 million was spent in North America, $850 million on development activity in the North Sea, $260 million on development activity in Southeast Asia and $600 million on international exploration. Almost all of our North America spend in the quarter was on unconventional activity. We now expect cash capital expenditures to increase to approximately $4.5 billion for the year. The increase relative to our prior guidance of $3.6 billion is primarily the result of accelerated drilling in the Marcellus, land acquisitions in the Montney Shale and the Marcellus and successful sidetracks and testing of several exploration wells. At the end of Q3 we had $2 billion of cash on the balance sheet and $1.9 billion of net debt. Excluding any additional acquisitions that we may choose to fund, we expect to end the year with a positive cash balance but clearly not at the level seen at the end of Q3. Our land acquisitions in the Montney Shale and the Marcellus and our accelerated unconventional activity will be funded by cash and this is possible because of the balance sheet flexibility we generated through our asset sales in the first 9 months of the year. On the M&A front we continue to be active. During the quarter, we closed two strategic acquisitions of exploration interests in Papua New Guinea for a combined cost of approximately $220 million. The acquisitions of Rift Oil in August and a subsidiary of Horizon Oil in September are a key step in aggregating natural resource potential and provide an expanded exploration position in PNG. On the disposition front, we continue to focus our portfolio. In the third quarter, Talisman entered into agreements to sell conventional assets in Western Canada for proceeds of approximately $300 million. These sales are expected to close in Q4. In addition, we expect to close the sale of 10% of the YME asset in Norway and the sale of our Tunisia assets in Q4. Since we introduced our new strategy in May 2008 and, including announced transactions expected to close later in 2009, we have sold assets for proceeds of approximately $2.8 billion while divesting only 31,000 boe/d of production. The proceeds received allow us to accelerate the implementation of our strategy in a fashion that maintains balance sheet strength. We will continue to evaluate opportunities to focus the portfolio, particularly in North America, and will proceed with additional dispositions if the value received and the strategic rationale makes sense for Talisman.
4 Our commodity derivative contracts in 2009 and 2010 protect our cash flow. We have protected 76,000 bbls/d or 35% of our remaining estimated 2009 oil production with collars at a floor of approximately US$74/bbl and a ceiling of approximately US$101/bbl. This consists of three programs, namely, 40,000 bbls/d in 95 by 135 collars, 11,000 bbls/d in 60 by 86 collars and 25,000 bbls/d in 43 by 50 collars. In 2010, we have 75,000 bbls/d hedged in three different programs. 22,000 bbls/d are hedged in 50 by 60 collars, 28,000 bbls/d are hedged in 52 by 80 collars and 25,000 bbls/d are hedged in 71 by 90 collars. For North American gas, we have protected approximately 350 mmcf/d or approximately 46% of our remaining estimated 2009 North American production at a price floor of approximately C$6 AECO. In 2010, we have protected approximately 290 mmcf/d at prices of approximately C$6 AECO. The 2010 program is weighted a little more to the first half relative to the second half of the year. Those are my highlights. I ll turn the call back over to John. Thanks Scott. I want to update you on our progress in strategic implementation before taking questions. We are gaining momentum in our implementation along a number of dimensions. First, in our shale gas activity. So far this year we have drilled 31 wells in the Marcellus and 30 wells in the Montney, between the core and shale areas. As we ve said before, we are satisfied that our Pennsylvania Marcellus acreage is ready for development and we are stepping up our pace. We re drilling wells now for US$4.3 million, with breakeven economics below $4/mcf. Our EURs are increasing as we drill and we are currently holding 3.5 bcf/well in our internal plans, although many of our recent wells look closer to 5 or 6 bcf/well. We have defined Tier 1 acreage as having full cycle breakeven economics at about $4/mcf. We started the year with 90,000 Tier 1 acres in the Marcellus and we have now doubled that Tier 1 acreage at an average price of US$3,250/acre. So we now hold 180, 000 Tier 1 acres, which gives us about 1,800 net well locations in the area. We have been accelerating investment over the last quarter right now we have 3 rigs running, and we will be ramping up to 6 rigs by year end. Plans for next year are still being finalized, but we are ready to go up to 10 rigs depending on our final capital decisions. In the Montney, we have been piloting several areas of the Montney shale in BC and, as you know, we ve also been drilling what we call the Montney core in Alberta. We are ready to move some of the pilot areas in the shale towards development into next year. Within the Montney shale area in BC, we have added about 80,000 Tier 1 acres to our land base, which brings the total Tier 1 land within the Montney shale to about 166,000 acres, which we think is about 3,000 net locations. We believe the economics of this acreage will be very similar to our Tier 1 Marcellus. So you can see we are accelerating our shale gas development activity as we gain confidence in the highest quality land positions. Our Montney position was considerably enhanced in the recent land sale and we are delighted with the results. And this is being reflected in our increased guidance for capital spending through the remainder of the year.
5 We are now confident we have sufficient running room for Talisman in the highest quality acreage for an extended drilling campaign to drive sustainable growth over multiple years. Exactly how we play into that growth will depend on the price outlook, our balance sheet management and a range of factors and is still under discussion internally, but the important point is that we have the resource in what we believe to be two of the best unconventional shale gas plays in North America. Turning to Asia, the other piece of strategic implementation during last quarter was a series of acquisitions in PNG which Scott outlined. The intent here is to aggregate onshore gas in PNG and, although we re not quite complete, we believe that we can see access to somewhere between 3-5 tcf of gas. It will take some follow on exploration, which we think is relatively low risk, but a substantial amount of that gas is already discovered. That amount of gas is easily sufficient for a stand alone small, modular LNG scheme and we are in discussions with various parties about how best to monetize that resource. This represents a clear step forward for our Asia strategy and builds out a new area for us in a region which is hungry for gas. I am excited about how this develops over the next year or two. We ve also seen some success as we continue to build out our exploration portfolio. Richard will be happy to answer questions on this later, but during the quarter, we have successfully appraised the Shaw discovery in the UK to firm up our estimate of about 100 mmbbls in place, we have been granted additional acreage in both Malaysia and Indonesia. We ve also been successful in our appraisal of the Situche discovery in Peru. As we go forward into 2010, we will be further accelerating certain aspects of our North American portfolio transition. Of course the final shape of that transition will depend on many factors, not least the market conditions in 2010 as we contemplate further dispositions in our conventional business. But we are confident that as we high grade our conventional portfolio and accelerate the transition into shales, our returns will increase. We will be prepared, if the market conditions are right into next year, to sell substantial existing production to cycle the capital into the shale gas land base we have now secured. Final decisions on this will come later, but I want to signal now that our production levels next year will be determined as much by the pace of those dispositions as anything else. The quality of our portfolio is increasing all the time and one example of this will be reduced finding and development costs. I have said I am expecting a 30-50% reduction vs 2008 this year and I remain confident this can be achieved. I remain equally confident that we will be able to continue to reduce F&D into the future. Ladies and gentlemen, I ve talked for longer than usual this time because I wanted to update you on those strategic actions, but now we d be delighted to answer your questions.
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