Tuesday, March 5, 2013 Houston, TX. 9:00 10:10 a.m. KEYNOTE ADDRESS: HYDROCARBON HAT TRICK HOW SHALE IS IMPACTING THE ECONOMY

Transcription

1 Tuesday, March 5, 2013 Houston, TX 9:00 10:10 a.m. KEYNOTE ADDRESS: HYDROCARBON HAT TRICK HOW SHALE IS IMPACTING THE ECONOMY Presented by Jesse Thompson Business Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch The unlocking of hydrocarbons within shale through the use of hydraulic fracturing (also known as fracking) and horizontal drilling has changed the petrochemical industry. These technologies not only led to initial natural gas finds, but also proved successful at extracting oil and other liquids. This presentation will address the impact to extraction, refining, and petrochemicals and explore the broader macroeconomic effects. Copyright 2013 International Risk Management Institute, Inc. 1

2 ENERGY RISK: UPSTREAM OPERATIONS MIDSTREAM OPERATIONS DOWNSTREAM OPERATIONS DRILLING CONTACTORS SERVICE CONTRACTORS MINING MANUFACTURERS AND SUPPLIERS INDEPENDENT POWER ALTERNATIVE ENERGY MARINE For more information about our global risk management and insurance brokerage services or to schedule a consultative meeting, contact Lee Hollmann from our Houston based Energy team: (713) or lee.hollmann@willis.com

3 Jesse Thompson Business Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Houston Branch Mr. Thompson is a business economist at the Houston Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. He conducts research covering the Houston and Gulf Coast economy and the impacts of shale gas on U.S. industry and assists in the collection of information for the Beige Book publication of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. He earned a Bachelor of Arts in philosophy and economics from the University of Houston and a Master of Arts in economics, with emphasis on empirical microeconomics, public economics, labor, and education, also from the University of Houston. Mr. Thompson is author of the monthly Houston Economic Indicators and the semiannual Houston Business newsletter. He is author and coauthor for multiple articles in Southwest Economy, most recently, "Booming Shale Gas Drives Texas Petrochemical Surge." He is also coauthor of "Recent Trends in Earnings Volatility: Evidence from Survey and Administrative Data," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, 2012, vol. 12, issue 2, page 1. 3

4 Notes This file is set up for duplexed printing. Therefore, there are pages that are intentionally left blank. If you print this file, we suggest that you set your printer to duplex. 4

5 The Hydrocarbon Hat Trick How Energy is Impacting The Texas Economy Jesse Thompson Regional Business Economist The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch November 2012 Austin San Antonio Houston 5

6 The Hydrocarbon Hat Trick Extraction Refining Petrochemicals 6

7 Oil & Gas Extraction Oil & Gas Extraction 7

8 Oil & Gas Extraction Number 2,500 U.S. Rig count in slow decline Oil directed Gas directed 2,000 1,500 1, Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 SOURCE: Baker Hughes 8

9 Most States Below Peak Employment 9

10 EF shale production growing rapidly EF shale production growing rapidly 10

11 EF shale production growing rapidly EF shale production growing rapidly 11

12 Shale Boosts State Tax Revenues Production & Regulation Tax Revenues: Natural Gas up 53% in 2011 & 38% in 2012 Oil up 46% in 2011 and 43% in 2012 Oil Well Service Taxes up 54% Over a dozen other mining related licenses and fees saw well into double digit increases in net revenues, as did Royalty Payments Retail sales in energy regions Midland & Odessa Sales Tax up 15-18% ytd in UTSA: 2011 EF generated $312 million in state taxes 12

13 Change in Employment Distribution Mining, construction, and financial lead change Delta Barnett Delta Eagle Ford Delta Permian Basin Construction Education and Health Services Financial Activities Information Leisure and Hospitality Manufacturing Natural Resources and Mining Other Services Professional and Business Services Public Administration Trade, Transportation and Utilities Note: Numbers denote the change in Location Quotients SOURCE: Quarterly Census of Wages and Employment; Bureau of Labor Statistics Eagle Ford 2012 Change in Super Sector Employment Trade, Transportation and Public Administration Professional and Business Other Services Natural Resources and Mining Manufacturing Leisure and Hospitality Information Financial Activities Education and Health Services Construction since 2005 since *Growth rates are year-to-year. Adjusted using U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures. SOURCE: Quarterly Census of Wages and Employment; Bureau of Labor Statistics 13

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15 Refining & Petrochemicals 15

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19 The Hydrocarbon Hat Trick How Energy is Impacting The Texas Economy Jesse Thompson Regional Business Economist The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch November

20 Notes This file is set up for duplexed printing. Therefore, there are pages that are intentionally left blank. If you print this file, we suggest that you set your printer to duplex. 20