ICCG 9 - Egbert-

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1 ICCG 9 - Egbert- 9/23/12 22:11 1 The low lands an economy build on wind Uitgeest Colony of the Catholic Spanish King with representative in Brussels 80 years ( ) war in a cold swamp area in NW-Europe Dr Ir Egbert-Jan Sol The first Republic Trading wood / grain with North Europe for exchange with High-Tech Systems & Materials southern goods until blocked by the Spanish 2 3 Cornelis Corneliszoon van Uitgeest Cornelis Corneliszoon van Uitgeest Inventor (1593) enabling Holland s Golden Age ( ) 1593 patent sawing mill did not work 1597 the improved crankshaft Sawing a tree took 2 men 30 weeks besonder creckwerk 3 saws at 120o Now sawing a tree took 1 week Still today we know hardly anything on Cornelis van Uitgeest That is an improvement of 30 x 4 NL 400 years later: strong trading (5th) economy(16th) agro/food (2nd), petro trading (1st), high-tech (equipment niches 1st) Agro/Food Industry Petro-chemical Industry A republic replacing a king A flat instead of hierarchical society With bottom-up innovations But also societal and economic innovations Around % population in cities Dutch 1st stock market & (ship) bonds Material & Energy scarcity HighTech Systems Import (250 B ) Technological innovations as: The saw-windmills The very economical small fluit ships The double decks large sail ships Geographic sea & first world maps Binocculars try Indus We It required a lot of innovations Infra, transport & construction (Added value 61 B p, ) 223 B ( p, 47 B ) 24 Financial, Media and ICT services ( p, 46 B ) Surplus 32 B (6B gas) 78 Dutch (internal) market (324 B ) Health Care ( people) Export (283 B ) A society build on wind energy 5 Government ( people) 2.3M jobs in value creation 5M other jobs 16M population NL 1

2 Challenges Agriculture age 1800: Till 1800 from 10M to 1B humans (100 x) from hunting and fishing to agriculture De missie van TNO Industrial age: how wrong Marx was Since 1800 making & transportation of goods improved (100 x) 2000 and beyond: resource challenge From 1B to 5B middle class consumers we can t continue to plundering the earth resources, burning fossil fuel and dumping waste, we need to become sustainable 4M 5M 5M 7M 27M 170M 6B Toepasbaar maken van wetenschappelijke kennis ter versterking van het innovatief vermogen van het bedrijfsleven en van de overheid. What can innovation offer High Added Value! High-Tech Systems & Materials! Including Semicon Equipment Materials and Solliance Holst Centre! Maritime & Offshore! Sustainable Chemical Industry Niche marketing Knowledge Intensive High Export Value Make it happen Pushing the limits All about sustainability Surprising combinations Pushing the limits! Extreme fast, clean, pure, thin, high pressure, small, still, deep, strong, long lifetime, precise, low power, low cost and more!! To enable breakthrough innovations in product and process design. Orchestrate and make it happen! Bringing private enterprise, knowledge institutes and government together national (NL) and international! Chain innovation! Co creation platforms (Shared Research) next to bilateral Contract Research! Built on best practices:! Holst Centre &! Solliance 2

3 Surprising Combinations It is all about sustainability! Working in Multidisciplinary teams! Adding the extra expertise and the unexpected to top private R&D teams! Complexity as challenge! Continuous stimulation of out of the box thinking! Great examples such as food printing, medical diagnoses with radar! Sustainability refers to lower energy consumption, addressing scarcity in materials and resources, supporting health and well-being of people and efficiency improvements.! For most companies sustainability is a mean to improve competitiveness! For the society it allows economic growth without further environmental pressure.! Chemergy: a great example 14 Dr Ir Egbert-Jan Sol! Born, Sneek (Fryslân) the Netherlands! 1973 oil crisis as year old teenager! Nijmegen: finished secondary school! 1979 Eindhoven: TU/e mechanical engineering! 1982 financial crisis salary reduction as PhD student! 1983 Eindhoven: PhD kinematics & dynamics of multi-body systems! : Hoogovens, Philips, BSO/Origin, Ericsson (steel/robots) (electronics) (software) (communication)! 1991 near-bankruptcy of Philips Electronics (lay-offs)! TU/e1 d/w professor technology mgt (34 year)! 2000 Internet bubble (Ericsson 60% job vaporized)! : TNO Science & Industry, CTO! 2009 Financial crisis! 2010 TNO Managing Director High-Tech Systems & Materials! 2018? Energy & Material crisis (ala Carlotta Perez) Content! Introduction! History! TNO! Sustainability! Earth! Material & Energy Scarcity! 100% sustainable by 2050 with solar! Short term impact on electronics! New business in thin solar! Evolution in smaller! foil electronics! Additive manufactured products! Conclusion 16 9/23/12 17 Economische groei en golven van 4-5 jaar voorraden en 8-10 jaar investeringen in machines 4-5 jaars dal is mild, maar 8-10 jaar daal doet pijn 5 jaar, 10 jaar, 20 jaar (bouw) en 40 jaar (Kondratieff) , ,5 2 4 year cycle (inventory) 8-9 year cycle (equipment) total (4 & 8-9) growth , , year cycle (inventory) 9 year cylce (invest machinery) 19 year cycle (invest build) Kondratieff (50 year) / / / / / / / / / totaal constant growth 3

4 100,0 90,0 80,0 70,0 60,0 50,0 40,0 30,0 20,0 10,0 0, year cycle (inventory) 9 year cylce (invest Kondratieff (50 year) totaal constant growth ICCG 9 - Egbert- 18 Kondratieff waves in economy: 4-5 years waves, 8-10 years, 20 year & 50 (long) waves (0-wave: Dutch + 0 Industrial Revolution (Wood/Wind)) 1-wave: French + 1 e Industrial Revolution (Railroad) 2-wave: Marx + Steel Industry (Steam) 3-wave: Capitalism + Electricity ( ) 4-wave: Consumption + Oil ( ) 0-19 Working wave: trigged by computer as communicator value creation by handling information cheaper and faster (from mainframe, 65+ microcomputer to mobile device) / /2018 Kondratieff: - A combination of technology & society - During upswing a lot changes rapidly ( ) - After 20 years it gets quiet again, as our society grows elder ( ) 2009/ / / / /2009 machinery) 19 year cycle (invest build) 19 The Future is always different Space Transport Jules Verne saw a glimpse A space rocket did not became a large bullet It will be... What will be our future? Improvements on Kondratieff! Kondratieff (1930) basic mechanism! Predictions in Stalin period resulted in his deportation & death in Goulag! Perez (2000)! Improvements in interactions in technology and financial mechanisms within a Kondratieff cycle of years! (2010 financial trigged crisis, next is technological trigged crisis)! (2000 was Internet bubble, 2020?? Energy scarcity??)! Current Kondratieff wave end of 5 th depression / stagnation then 6 th! 5 th digitalization (computers, mobile telephony, Internet, mobile data)! Global economy, open innovation, but also looming scarcity issues, elderly population, climate risks! (relatively) Less growth for many years to come (debt restructuring, high(-er) prices for energy and raw material, wealth shifts) 6 th Kondratieff Sustainability! No. 5 from society adapts fast to new tech! New tech takes / took years from idea to 1% use and another 30 years from 1% to massive use! Internet , now 2010 everywhere! Co-operative driving (1%), 2040 standard! The 6 th is about sustainability (you can t predict the future: Jules Verne)! If company, region adapts to sustainable before 2020 and full sustainability by 2030, they will still continue to exist, else they dissolve in history (too expensive, etc.)! Renewable energy, green / biobased energy / raw materials, nano-technologies (small products) 23 There is enough for everyone's need, but there is not enough for everybody's greed 1 Black Swan Surprise invention and we live happy after 2 Gran Tradizionne More of the same, but with some tensions 3 Closed Continents Europe is lacking resources, cost welfare 4 Perfect Storm Tension, drop in welfare, some win, many loose 5 WO III Everybody looses 6 Antarctica We drown (1/13 of earth, 2 km ice) Perfect Storm Scenario: Three storms at the same time ( )! 1! BRICK economies will grow rapidly, increase in demand for energy and materials, not for 1B, but for 5B consumers! Energy prices and minerals grow too fast because of minimal price elasticity: with huge demand, prices explode! 2! Then every country want to lower its dependency on fossil fuels, but installing sustainable solutions is too expensive,! Need for more sustainable energy, even 10-20% in NL creates a huge demand for indium for km2 solar cells or neodymium for high power magnets for direct drive windmills! 3! And then models for land-ice melting in Antarctica gets accurate and indicate wrong trend, CO2 reduction is desperately pursued to avoid wakening a climate monster. 4

5 ICCG 9 - Egbert- 9/23/12 22: /23/12 Earth Climate: Moderate or Monster 25 9/23/12 Save the Planet (is really: save us) Earth 4.5 Billion years old Sun heat increases by 40% over 10 Billion years, we are half way First Billion years, more CO2, creating a warm blanket when sun was still cold Ice ages 2.2B ago, then 1B year warm period, then the super ice age 300M y again huge period of ice ages with low CO2 (New Scientist, 26 jun 2010) Last 2M years ups & downs, last 1M years 4 period around CO (homo sapiens max 2M years, once only 1000 humans) Sea level can be -120 m below and 75 m above today's level Antarctica and Greenland 15% of world area (Wikipedia) and 1500 m land ice, if melted 65 m sea level rise Mankind: Lucy 4 My more signs 1 M Homo Heidelberg ( y) Last 2 ice age ( y) periods 6 m delta in less then 100 years of a period from max ice to no ice of 5000 years Last century: rise in order of decimeter, this century in order of meter? Today CO2 380 ppm and rising rapidly (max fossil 440 ppm) Back to Miocene (20My ago): 6 oc warmer & 40 m sea rise in?????y (New Scientist, 22 may 2010, p36 (and the good new is: no ice ages any more)) 26 9/23/12 There is enough for everyone's need, but there is not enough for everybody's greed Black Swan Surprise invention and we live happy after Gran Tradizionne More of the same, but with some tensions Closed Continents Europe is lacking resources, cost welfare Perfect Storm Tension, drop in welfare, some win, many loose WO III Everybody looses Antarctica We drown (1/13 of earth, 2 km ice) Fixed BRICK will (at least initially) continue to grow rapidly Fossil fuels and minerals will get more expensive (huge inflation) Scenario invariance postpone / delay hitting the wall Lower consumption patterns (less usage, smaller products) Secondary / mining / production and cradle to cradle designs Substitution and Elements of hope More rapid deployment and transition to sustainable energy Technology plays a key role, develop innovative solutions and accelerate the introduction of those greener solutions 28 Metals 2030 : demand versus production (Source: Institute for Futures Studies and Technology Assessment (IZT) / Fraunhofer ISI, 2009) Europe and the US have already depleted a significant part of their accessible resources Gallium (used in LEDs, solar cells, IC s): 6 x Indium (transparent electrodes in LCD, mobile phones and solar cells): 3 x Neodymium (lasers, electrical power): 3 x Germanium (fibre glass and IR optics) : 2 x Scandium (fuel cells) : 2 x Sources: Raw Materials Data, Stockholm 2004, Sames, Raw Materials Group China has 70% of Indium and 97% of Neodymium reserves. Mid-African countries have monopoly of Cobalt (wear-resistant alloys) and Tantalum (capacitors). Material & Energy scarcity 5

6 31 9/23/12 Mining is in the end an energy challenge too Mineralogical barrier for elements < 0.1% (mass) earth s crust Extremely energy-intensive to extract Remaining relevant resources of other minerals rare : Cu, Sn, Ni, Sb, Ag,. trace : Pt, In, Se, Ga,. Source: Exploring the resource base by Brian J. Skinner, Yale University, 2001 The Elements of Hope H C N O P S Cl non-metal elements Na Mg Al Si K Ca Fe Ti Cr Mn Cu elements of hope B F Ar Br critical elements (saved for most critical applications) frugal elements Li Be Sc V Co Ni Zn Ga (use only when unique properties are Ge As Sr Y Zr Nb Mo PGM needed, e.g. Copper and Manganese) Ag Cd In Sn Sb Te Ba REM Ta W Re Au Hg Tl Pb Bi - Elements of Hope are abundant in Earth s crust, oceans and atmosphere - The challenge is to realize desired functionality of products with Elements of Hope and to develop processes for production at an economic scale Passing through the bottleneck What ever we can do & innovate now, reduces the future crisis Denial, disbelief and blind optimism: Proper and timely action: Armin Reller, 2009 Content! Introduction! History! TNO! Sustainability! Earth! Material & Energy Scarcity! 100% sustainable by 2050 with solar! Short term impact on electronics! New business in thin solar! Evolution in smaller! foil electronics! Additive manufactured products! Conclusion /Watt-Peak ,1 Learning curve for Solar Modules Silicon Thin Film GW 100 GW GW Year GW p Module / W p , , ,20 GigaWatts world New data 1000 GW 0, GW 0,35 6

7 36 37 year GW Cum. Learning 1 GW p New fabs Sales Extrapolation Installed of Curve solar learning fabs curve added and its output consequences panels / W p that year all fabs B B , B , B , B , B Solar industry becomes a trillion market, larger then semicon industry Storage of surpuls solar electricity into hydrocarbons Surplus Electricity ê Electrolyze of water: 2H 2 O è 2H 2 + O 2 í 2H 2 + CO 2 è H 2 O + CH 3 OH é ê Surplus CO 2 Methanol CHEMERGY: store surplus energy and surplus CO2 into CHEMical fuels Heinz Frei, 2006, 3-D nanostructure 39 Total Cost of Ownership Solliance - CIGS production solutions 30x30 cm 2 demonstrator line + innovative systems Scrap costs at inspection 27% Fixed Costs 25% Operational Costs 5% Fixed Costs Operational Costs Raw Materials Scrap costs at inspection Raw Materials 43% 40 Light Management 200 µm c-si glass TCO p i Si n back contact 1 µm TF µc-si Amolf Non-transparent barrier Cathode Ba/Al (5 nm/ nm) LEP (80 nm) PEDOT (100 nm) High Conductive Pedot (100 nm) Transparent barrier Substrate ( µm) What is Atomic Layer Deposition used for? ALD is used micro-electronics Would be nice to use it for new applications like solar cells and flexible electronics ALD is a wonderful technique, but major drawback: Very, very slow. Too expensive for low cost high volume products like solar cells and flexible electronics. Necessary for TF-Si, applicable to CIGS (thinner layers 5->0,5 µm) and OPV (0,1 µm) 7

8 From the 2nm/min with classic ALD SolayTec Ultrafast ALD 156 x 156 mm 2 Solar cell wafer Full area, ~ 100 nm Al 2 O 3 Purge/Pump TMA Purge/Pump H 2 O Purge/Pump TMA 4 s 20 ms 2 s 60 ms 4 s 20 ms to 70 nm/min Spatial ALD TNO spin-off offers a Process Development Tool (100 wafers/hr) and an in-line High Volume Tool (3.000 wafers/hr) Spatial ALD on flexible substrates Roll-to-roll Spatial ALD: TNO approach! Spatial ALD mainly used on rigid substrates Does it also work for flexible substrates?! Possible application: encapsulation (WVTR < 10-5 g/m 2 /day with 50 nm alumina) Challenges:! Foil deformation and strain! Contamination! Thick films (compared with passivation layers)! Large substrates! Temperature No mechanical contact on deposition side Flexibility in foil- and layer-thickness Compact Roll-to-roll Spatial ALD: TNO approach We are still searching for companies to join us in this Solliance program contact author or Content! Introduction! History! TNO! Sustainability! Earth! Material & Energy Scarcity! 100% sustainable by 2050 with solar! Short term impact on electronics! New business in thin solar! Evolution in smaller! foil electronics! Additive manufactured products! Conclusion 8

9 nm 365 nm 248 nm 193 nm 130 nm 90 nm 65 nm 45 nm 32 nm 22 nm 16 nm 10 nm Nano-Tech From micro-electronics in 1970 to nano-electronics in 2000 with in 2020: 10 nm, 450 mm, EUV, in 3D chip with 512GB, 8 layer, 1000 TSV and 50Gb/s optic. chan nm nano-photonics: Manipulating photons Si-Photonics optic computing nano-cats: 3D nano structures for chemergy processes Industrial Technologies: creating value at smaller scales Trend Manufacturing: Meter sized metal constructions (pre 1950) Value create at Electronics tubes at millimeter precision Micro electronics Nano lithography Trend Processes: Meter sized vessels and refinery columns (400y) Value create at Process Intensification at mm scale Lab-on-Chips Micro droplet printing, or jetting Nano manipulation at molecule level Trend Food Preparation: Mixing in pots & pans to Value create at controlling food & nutriënts at millimeter level Food structures made with (crude) Rapid Manuf. printing 53 Lithography: keeping Moore s law alive Computations per Kilowatt hour double every 1.5 years From mainframe to smart push-pins 3-times an order of 1000 Scale log mm 3 : 1890 US census (human & electro-mech) relay based cryptography 1000 m3 (= 10 x 10 x 10 m) vacuum-tube 100 m3 (= 5 x 5 x 5 m = 125 m3) mainframe discrete transitor Appollo 10 m3 (=2.5 x 2.5 x 2.5 m = 15,6 m3) minicomputer integrated circuit 1 m3 = 1000 dm3 = 10^6 cm3 = 10^9 mm microcomputer = human body 100 dm3 =(50 x 50 x 50 cm3) AT 36 liter, 1988 Pentium 22 liter 10 dm3 =10 liter (15 lt = 25 x 25 x 25 cm3) notebook 2 lt 1 dm3 = 1000 cm3 = 10 x 10 x 10 cm PDA = appx 5 cm3 100 cm3 = 5(12,5) x 5 x 5(2) cm SiP = appx 2,5 cm3 cubic inch 10 cm3 = 2,5 x 2,5 x 2,5 cm3 1 mm x 12,5 cm x 12,5 cm Source: Jonathan Koomey, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and Stanford University, cubic centimeter 1 cm3 = 1000 mm3 = 10 x 10 x 10 mm intelligent push-pin (punaiske) 100 mm3 Dimensions: pin length 10 mm by 1 mm top 10 mm diameter by 1 to 2 mm thickness volume: pi x 5 square x = 100 mm3 54 Learning curve for smart devices (from mainframe to ambient push-pin computer) Log 10 (Volume (hxbxl) mm3) Mainframe 1959 Mini 79 PC-AT 84 Pentium 92 Notebk 97 PDA 2001 S-i-P 2010 Push-Pin Log 10 (Cum. Amount of devices) 6=1M, 9=1B Note: SiP = System in a Package (c) TNO Industrial Technologies, Egbert-Jan Sol, = 1B 10x10x10 cm (1 liter) devices by = 10B 5x5x5 cm PDA/phones by today 11 = 100B 1 cubic (2,5 cm) devices by? mm x 25 mm x 25 mm 12 = 1000 B 1x1x1 cm devices by? mm thick x 125 mm x 125 mm 2. Scope and objectives Equipment for: Integrated Products? 9

10 3D chip wafer stacking 56 10

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14 Bump creation Carrier bonding Wafer thinning Typical System in Package TSV creation TSV filling Dicing Cleaning Inspection Picking Singulation Molding Collective bonding Placing From stacked toward laminated into a foil Metal Jetters 85 Flexible displays/phones Functional analysis of iphone Injection moulded top Fragile glass display Multiple electronic devices PCB Battery Injection moulded bottom Lots of small screws! 14

15 87 Step 1: Deposition of base with integrated conductors 2. Scope and objectives Equipment for: Integrated Products? Step 2: Placement of multilayer chip and thin film battery Semicon equipment, single chip Integrated Products, integrated in one singe product, no assembly Step 3: Lamination of foil display Large area electronics, display in foil Integrated Solar Cell? Step 4: Deposition of finalizing layers, sealing system From Rapid Prototyping to Additive Manufacturing From a night batch to continuous production The Economist 21st April 2012 Making the future - How robots and people team up to manufacture things in new ways Line speed: up to 2 m/s DOD print heads: 2x Dimatix printheads CIJ print heads: 2x Multi nozzle CIJ Domino BitJet+ Build platform: 100x Build platform size: 50mm x 75mm Goal: 100 products 50 x 75 x 6 mm in 10 minutes One product every 6 sec! Additive manufacturing, like anything else digital, is already becoming both cheaper and more effective. The big breakthrough would be in workflow. At present 3D printers make things one at a time or in small batches. But if they could work in a continuous process like the pillmaking machine in the Novartis-MIT laboratory they could be used on a moving production line. The aim would be to build things faster and more flexibly rather than to achieve economies of scale. Such a line could be used to build products that are too big to fit into existing 3D printers and, because the machine is digitally controlled, a different item could be built on each platform, making mass customisation possible. That would allow the technology to take off. Can it be done? Back to the EuroMold exhibition, where TNO, an independent research group based in the Netherlands, showed a novel machine with 100 platforms travelling around a carousel in a continuous loop. A variety of 3D-printing heads would deposit plastics, metals or ceramics onto each platform as they pass to make complete products, layer by layer. Scale up the idea, straighten out the carousel and you have a production line with multiple printing heads. 92 Conclusions! The next crisis is on Sustainability! 100% sustainable by 2050 with solar when several innovation succeed (ultra low cost solar, chemical storage,..)! Short term impact! New business in solar & storage! Evolution in smaller! 3D chips & foil electronics! Additive manufactured products! And even for these developments a lot of innovations are needed The future is always different, but sometime we get a glimpse of it! here at the HTC in Eindhoven 15

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