MAT116 Project 2 Chapters 8 & 9

Transcription

1 MAT116 Project 2 Chapters 8 & : The Project In Project 1 we made a loan workout decision based only on data from three banks that had merged into one. We did not consider issues like: What was the term of the loan? What interest rate were they paying? What kind of workout options are available? What role does inflation play in the value of the loan over time? 2 The Project In this short project, we will extend the results of Project 1 by looking at these factors and see if doing so changes our original decision in any way. We will look at two common workout options in more detail and build amortization tables to adjust the true full value of out loan. This will allow us to recomputed our expected values. These tables will be built using common ideas and formulas from the finance world such as annuities, future value, present value, etc. 3 1

2 8-2: Workout Options There are at least five types of loan workouts 4 Debt Forgiveness This means all or part of the debt is simply erased. For example, in 1999, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank cancelled much of the debt owed by Mozambique. ( 6/99/debt/ stm) 5 Graduated Payment In this situation, the payments are lowered in the beginning, then gradually increased as the borrower builds his or her earning ability. For example, college graduates usually have student loans to repay, but in their early twenties they typically do not have much earning power. So they could make small payments for a few years. As they get older, their salaries increase, so they are able to make larger payments. 6 2

3 Forbearance This means the borrower pays nothing for a period of time (for example, one year). During this time, the interest continues to accumulate. Then, when the time period is over, the borrower resumes payments. An example of this would be a small business owner during a recession. He or she could apply for a forbearance during the economic hard times. This is an option we will explore. 7 Deferment This is similar to forbearance, except interest does not accumulate during the deferment period. Typically, the interest is paid by a third party, such as a government program. For example, college graduates who join the Peace Corp qualify for a deferment, and the U.S. government will pay the interest of their student loans until their duty is finished. 8 Extended Repayment The length of time to pay back the loan is extended. For example, if the original loan is to be paid back in 5 years, then under this plan, the borrower would have 10 years to pay back the loan. This reduces the amount of each payment. This is the other option we will explore in this project. 9 3

4 9-1: Intro to Time Value of Money Problems Whenever we take out loans, make investments, or deal with money over time, common questions arise. How much will this be worth in 10 years? How will inflation eat into my retirement savings over the next 30 years? How much do I need to save each month to have $1,000,000 at age 60? How much do I need to pay each month on a 30 year mortgage of $400,000 if the interest rate is 5.25% These are called Time Value of Money (TVM) problems. 10 Common Notations P = Present Value: the current value of an investment or loan or sum of money. F = Future Value: The value of an investment, loan or sum of money in the future. r = Annual Percentage Rate m = Number of periods per year. : If you make monthly loan payments, them m = Common Notations (Cont d) i = Interest Rate per Period: : The annual interest rate is 6% and there are 12 payments per year. Then i =.06/12 =.005, or 0.5% per month. i = r/m t = Time, measured in years n = Total number of periods. : You have a 10 year loan that is paid monthly. Then you have n = 10 12=120 total periods. n = m t R = The amount of a Rent. This is the regular payment made on a loan or into an investment. 12 4

5 Suppose you deposit $1000 into an account that compounds interest quarterly. The annual rate of interest is 2.3% and you are going to keep it in the account for 4.5 years. At the end of this time, the account will be worth $ P = $1000 F = $ r =.023 m = 4 i =.023/4 = t = 4.5 n = 18 R = $ : Percent Increase/Decrease If a quantity increases by some percent, we can create a multiplier that helps us convert a beginning value to an ending value. To create the appropriate multiplier: Percent Increase: 1 + i Percent Decrease: 1 - i Why? 14 This year, the SCCC student population is 11,350. The administration estimates that will increase by 2% next year. How many students can we expect next year? The multiplier = = 1.02 New student population = 11,350(1.02) =

6 The current balance of my retirement account is $244,350. If the value of the account drops by 5.2% over the next year, what will be the new value? Multiplier = =.948 New Value = $244,350(.948) = $231, : Compound Interest When we invest money, interest may be applied to the account on a regular basis. For example, if we invest in account that pays interest monthly, we say the interest compounds monthly. Anything in the account at the time of compounding gets interest added to it. In the monthly case, we have 12 compoundings per year, with each compounding representing 1/12 of the total annual interest rate. 17 We invest $1000 in an account that compounds monthly. The annual interest rate is 3.6%. If we keep it in the account for 5 years, adding or removing nothing, how much will be in the account at the end of 5 years? First, we need to note that the interest per period is i =.036/12 =.003. Let s begin by building a table 18 6

7 Period # Previous Balance $0 $1000 $1000(1.003) $1000(1.003)(1.003) New Balance $1000 $1000(1.003) $1000(1.003)(1.003) $1000(1.003) (1.003) (1.003) 19 Period # New Balance $1000 $1000(1.003) $1000(1.003)(1.003) $1000(1.003) (1.003) (1.003) =$1000(1.003) 0 =$1000(1.003) 1 =$1000(1.003) 2 =$1000(1.003) 3 20 Period # New Balance 3 $1000(1.003) (1.003) (1.003) =$1000(1.003) 3 4 =$1000(1.003) 4 5 =$1000(1.003) 5 After 5 years, or 20 periods, we have 20 =$1000(1.003) 20 After n total periods, we have n =$1000(1.003) n 21 7

8 Compound Interest Formula If P dollars earn an annual interest rate of i per period for n periods, with no additional principal added or removed, then the future value (F) is given by: F = P(1+i) n 22 A bank account is opened with $4,000 in the account. It earns 6% annual interest. If it earns interest quarterly (four times per year), then what is in the account after 10 years? 23 Technology Question How could you use Excel to try to answer the previous question? Excel File Link 24 8

9 Suppose you invest $500 today at an annual rate of 1.5%, compounded daily. How long before the balance doubles? : Rule of 72 Given some investment that grows at an annual interest rate, r, (not expressed as a decimal), then the amount of time in years it takes for the investment to double is approximately: 72 r 26 How long will it take for an investment to double if it earns 5% annual interest? Note that estimating the doubling time does not require that we know how much is originally invested! 27 9

10 If you want your investment to double in 30 months, what annual interest rate do you need to secure? : Yield Because each compounding acts on the original balance and any interest that has been previously earned, at the end of the investment, the net interest earned will not be the same as the annual interest rate. The true interest rate earned is called the Yield. 29 Invest $100 for 1 years, compounded monthly at an annual rate of 12%. F = 100(1+.01) 12 = $ This represents a yield of 12.68%, which is higher than the original 12% stated above. The yield is often called the Annual Percentage Yield (APY ). Always ask what this is when you take out a loan time, compounding and bank fees can substantially increase your rate of interest and therefore your total payments due! 30 10

11 Yield Formula The formula for yield in the t = 1 year case is: y = n ( 1+ i) 1 31 Where Did Get That? new old P(1 + i) y = = old P n P[ (1 + i) 1] = P n = (1+ i) 1 n P 32 Who Cares? The APR, or yield, is helpful since it simplifies calculations. If we know the APR, then it does not matter how many times we compound per year because the APR will give us actual percentage increase at the end of a year

12 If $375 is invested with an APR of 5.22% for 8 years and 3 months, what is the Future value of the investment? : Annuities When additional payments or deposits (rents) are made at regular intervals into an investment, then we call these annuities: Ordinary Annuity: Payment is due at the END of each period. Annuity Due: Payment is due at the START of each period. This will complicate our Future Value calculations. 35 We invest in an account that compounds annually. The annual interest rate is 3%. If we add $800 at the end of each year (an ordinary annuity), how much will be in the account at the end of 5 years total? Let s look at a picture of what is going on here

13 Start Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Investment Period $800 $800 $800 $800 $800 Each of these $800 investments earns interest for a different period of time. Hence, the value of each of these deposits is different at the end of the 5-year period. 37 Start The End End Year 1 End Year 2 End Year 3 End Year 4 End Year 5 Investment Period $800 $800 $800 $800 $800 This one is worth $800(1+.03) 4 at the End $ This one is worth $800(1+.03) 3 at the End $ This one is worth $800(1+.03) 2 at the End $ This one is worth $800(1+.03) 1 at the End $824 This one is worth $800 at the End $ We can add all of these up: $800(1.03) 4 + $800(1.03) 3 + $800(1.03) 2 + $800(1.03) 1 + $800 =$ $ $ $824 + $800 =$

14 A General Formula Now imagine if the monthly payments were deposited and monthly interest credited. We would then have 5 12 = 60 different deposits to find the values for so we can add them up. To avoid this inefficiency, we instead use the following formula, which is equivalent to going through that process. 40 A General Formula If R dollars are paid at the end of each period, with an interest rate of I per period, then the Future Value of the Annuity is: F = R ( 1+ i) i n 1 41 Check We invest in an account that compounds annually. The annual interest rate is 3%. If we add $800 at the end of each year (an ordinary annuity), how much will be in the account at the end of 5 years total? 5 (1 +.03) 1 F = = = 800 ( ) =

15 What is the future value if you invest $95 per month for 7 years at an annual rate of 3.75%? R = 95 i =.0375/12 n = 12 7 = 84 Note that I try to keep as many decimal places as possible until the end F = 95 ( /12) = = ( ) = / The Excel Table How can we build an Excel Table to keep track of all of this? Excel File Link 44 FV for Annuities Due When payments or deposits are made at the beginning of a period (rather than at the end as in the previous examples), an adjustment is needed. We can view each payment as if it were made at the end of the preceding period. This would require one more payment (n+1 total) than usual and would require that we subtract the last payment so we don t overpay

16 FV for Annuities Due F = R ( 1+ i) n+ 1 i 1 R 46 If $300 payments are made at the beginning of the month for 18 years (a college savings fund), what is the Future Value if the annual interest rate is 5.5% : Future Value (FV) on Excel The FV command will do these computations for us automatically. Command Format: =FV(rate, nper, pmt, [pv], [type]) This is i, the rate per period This is n, the total # of periods This is R, the amount of rent This is P, the Present Value Blank for ordinary annuity, 1 for annuity due 48 16

17 Excel s If $300 payments are made at the beginning of the month for 18 years (a college savings fund), what is the Future Value if the annual interest rate is 5.5% What is the future value if you invest $95 per month (paid at the end of the month) for 7 years at an annual rate of 3.75%? 49 Project Questions What does this have to do with Project 1? : PV of Annuities Suppose you have an ordinary 20-year annuity that you pay $500 into at the end of each quarter. The annual interest rate is 7%. What is the lump-sum of money which should be deposited at the start of the annuity that would produce the exact same amount of money at the end of the period, without any additional payments? This is know as the Present Value of the Annuity 51 17

18 Present Value of an Ordinary Annuity P = ( 1 i) 1 + R i n 52 Origin of the Formula Can you figure out how this comes from the formula for the Future Value of an Ordinary Annuity? 53 Suppose you set up an ordinary annuity account which is to last 10 years and earn 4% annual interest rate. If your rent payment is $150 per month, how much do you need to deposit as a lump sum up front to achieve the same end result without any regular payments? 54 18

19 Suppose you win the lottery and have a choice. $4,500,000 in one lump sum. (Present Value = $4.5M) $650,000 per year for 9 years (an annuity). Assume you can earn 5% annual interest on these payments if you deposit them into an account. Which one is better? Compute the Present Value of the second option and compare it to the first option : Present Value (PV) on Excel The PV command will do these computations for us automatically. Command Format: =PV(rate, nper, pmt, [fv], [type]) This is i, the rate per period This is n, the total # of periods This is R, the amount of rent This is the FV you want after the last pmt Optional Blank for ordinary annuity, 1 for annuity due 56 Excel Suppose you set up an ordinary annuity account which is to last 10 years and earn 4% annual interest rate. If your rent payment is $150 per month, how much do you need to deposit as a lump sum up front to achieve the same end result without any regular payments? 57 19

20 Loan Payments We use the formula for the Present Value of an Ordinary Annuity to determine the periodic amount of Rent (the payment) on a loan. Since P is the present value of the loan, then this makes since. 58 Loan Payment Formula P ( 1 i) 1 + i P 1 + i ( 1 i) ( 1 i) + P= R i ( 1 i) 1 + i = R n 1 + i = R n n 1 Start here with the original formula ( 1 i) n n Divide both sides by [ ] to get R alone Here is the formula for the loan payment. 59 Loan Payment Formula Using basic algebra, we can rewrite this as: R Pi = n 1 ( 1+ i) Pi = 1 1 ( 1+ i) n 60 20

21 Suppose you want to buy a home and take out a 30-year mortgage for $240,000. The annual interest rate is 5.75%. a) What is the monthly payment? b) What total amount of money do you pay over the life of the loan (assuming all regular payments are made)? c) How much of you total payments is interest? 61 (a) We use the formula to get $ per month. R Pi = n 1 ( 1+ i) Pi = 1 1 ( 1+ i) n 62 (b) and (c) The total amount of money we pay is: 360 $ = $ Hence, the amount of interest paid is: $504, $240,000 = $264,

22 9-10: Loan Payments (PMT) on Excel The PMT command will do these computations for us automatically. Command Format: =PV(rate, nper, pv, [fv], [type]) This is i, the rate per period This is n, the total # of periods This is the present value of the loan This is the FV you want after the last pmt Default=0 Blank for ordinary annuity, 1 for annuity due 64 Amortization Tables Am amortization table is a chart that shows the balance of the loan/account after each payment. Sometimes, it includes information on how much of each payment is interest and how much goes to pay off the loan balance. We will not need this extra information for our project, however. 65 Suppose you buy a house and take out a 15- year mortgage. The loan amount is $180,000 and the annual interest rate is 6%. Let s build an amortization table. Excel File Link 66 22

23 9-12: Adjusting for Inflation As we discussed earlier, inflation can seriously devalue a loan or asset over time. For example, if the average inflation rate is 3.5%, how much will $50 be worth in 5 years (in terms of today s dollars)? In other words, in five years how much can I buy with a $50 bill compared to what I can buy today? 67 F = P(1+i) n 50 = P(1+.035) 5 50 = P( ) 50/( ) = P $42.10 = P Important: Notice that we substituted $50 for F since that is what we know we will have in the future. We solve for P since we want to know what the Future $50 is worth in Present dollars. 68 Terms Nominal Dollars are those that have not been adjusted for inflation. Real Dollars = Present Dollars are those that have been adjusted for inflation and therefore reflect the spending power of some future amount of money in terms of today s dollars

24 A business takes out a loan of $1,000,000 over a 10-year period at 5% annual interest, compounded quarterly. They pay quarterly payments of both interest and principal. a) What is the total amount of payments made to the bank? b) What is the value of these payments to the bank, after adjusting each payment for inflation? 70 (a) and (b) Let s build an amortization table. Excel File Link 71 Focus on the Project Recall our Loan Data Name: John Sanders f = full loan value = $4,000,000 d = default value = $250,000 r = foreclosure amount = $2,100,000 From Project 1: E(Z) = $2,040,000 We re only going to consider the case where Y = 7 and not ranges of years as we did in Project