EASTERN AFRICA AFRICA POWER POWER POOL POOL

Transcription

1 EASTERN AFRICA AFRICA POWER POWER POOL POOL

2 Outline EAPP members-electricity tariff Unit generation -Thermal options EAPP region-unit generation of candidate hydro projects(uganda, Tanzania, Sudan, Kenya) Screening curve for Non-Hydro options-ethiopia Trends on Power exchanges

3 Typical Electricity Tariff($cents/Kwh) Country Residential Commercial Ethiopia Kenya Tanzania Current generation in EAPP member states ~5-2$/kwh

4 EAPP-Future thermal options Unit generation s Country Type Capacity (MW) Capital with IDC ($/kw) Fixed c/kwh Variable c/kwh c/kwh Fixed % Variable % Egypt STPP - NG % 1% CCGT - NG % 1% Nuclear % 1% Ethiopia Geothermal 75/ % 21% Kenya Geothermal % 17% STPP - coal (Richards Bay) % % Rwanda Diesel/Methane Sudan STPP - Crude % 23% Tanzania STPP - Coal % 7% OCGT - NG % 28% Uganda CCGT - Gasoil % 72% STPP - HFO % 89%

5 EAPP region-unit of Candidate hydro projects-uganda Generation Investment Annual s () Unit Prices Name Ins. Cap MW Avrg. Energ y GWh Orig. MUS D Price Year Esc.In dec. 29 Esc. Dec. 9 MUS D Const Years IDC % IDC in Env. Mitiga tion in in Amort O& M Insur ance + Interi m Repl. Energ y c/kw h Inves t $/kw Uganda Karuma High Ayago Murchiso n High Isimba Notes : The capital of large hydro plants includes the of transmission required to connect the HPP to the system Environmental Mitigation s already include IDCs.

6 EAPP region-unit of Candidate hydro projects-tanza Name Generation Investment Annual s () Unit Prices Install Avera Escalat Env. Energy Origina Esc. ed ge Price ed to Const. Mitigat Amortiz l Index IDC % with O & M INS+INT unit $/kw Cap. Energy Year Dec. 9 Years ion ation REPL 29 IDC MW GWh c/kwh TANZAN IA Ruhudji Kinansi II Masigira Rumakali Mpanga Stiegler Gorge Stiegler Gorge Stiegler Gorge Igamba Falls (Stage 2)* Igamba Falls 98 m Ikondo Taveta Songwe Bipugu Songwe Sofre Songwe Manolo Kakono (High) Kishanda Luiche Rusumo Falls (Full)

7 EAPP region-unit of Candidate hydro projects-sudan Name Generation Investment Annual s () Unit Prices Install Avera Escalat Env. Energy Origina Esc. ed ge Price ed to Const. Mitigat Amortiz l Index IDC % with O & M INS+INT unit Cap. Energy Year Dec. 9 Years ion ation REPL 29 IDC MW GWh c/kwh Sabaloka Shereiq Kagbar Dal 1 (low) Dagash Fula Shukoli Lakki Bedden Rumela SUDAN $/kw

8 EAPP region-unit of Candidate hydro projects-kenya Name Generation Investment Annual s () Unit Prices Install Avera Escalat Env. Energy Origina Esc. ed ge Price ed to Const. Mitigat Amortiz l Index IDC % with O & M INS+INT unit $/kw Cap. Energy Year Dec. 9 Years ion ation REPL 29 IDC MW GWh c/kwh Mutonga Low Grand Falls Magwagwa Karura KENYA

9 Typical future generation projects-unit ($cents/kwh) Ethiopia- (3-5) Uganda- (3-5) Tanzania-(3-5) Sudan-(-8) Kenya-----(8-1)

10 EAPP region-unit of Candidate hydro projects.. DRC and Ethiopia have even more attractive hydro sites. But there is interest in the development of Geothermal/Wind/Solar power(energy mix).. Looking at hydro, the best projects in terms of unit are yet to come. Fossil-fuelled generation hardly compete with hydro in the EAPP region, but with geothermal/wind/solar based generation. Imports also affect the average generation in the individual systems with less hydro potential

11 Annual $/kwh Screening Curves for Non-Hydro Plant $/kwh.5 Generation Screening Curve % 1% 2% 3% % 5% % 7% 8% 9% Annual plant load factor GT (DFO) GT gas CCGT gas Geothermal Nuclear Biomass - wood/bagasse Wind Solar Biomass - prosopis/bagasse

12 Power exchange trends... Significant power exchange already exists between Ethiopia, Sudan and Djibouti. PPA is already signed between Kenya and Ethiopia for a firm power transfer of MW. More generation projects to be commissioned in EAPP region from the short to the long term,which leads to increased power exchange between members More PPAs and WAs are expected to be signed in the near future(ex.tz/et/ke) There seem to be no space for future major fossil-based generation in EAPP if countries remain committed to development of the vast RE potential in the region

13 Zafarana Wind Farm, Egypt Olkaria Geothermal PP, Kenya Ubungo Gas PP, Tanzania Merowe Hydro PP, Sudan