MANAGING THE GROWING ENERGY DEMAND: THE CASE OF EGYPT

Transcription

1 553 MANAGING THE GROWING ENERGY DEMAND: THE CASE OF EGYPT Eng. Hosni El-Kholy Chairman: Electric Power Systems Engineering Company WEC Egyptian member Committee Eng. Ragy Faried Consulting Engineer ABSTRACT The electric energy consumption rate in Egypt has an average increase of 7% per year through the last three decades. In order to satisfy the ever increasing energy demand, several actions were, and have to be taken. These actions have to be carried out in parallel. The one having the greatest effect is the measures carried out for energy conservation and loss reduction. Diversifying the energy source such as utilization of Renewable Energy technologies can contribute to satisfying the demand and extending the hydro-carbon reserves life. Regional integration of electrical networks will save expenditures used to build additional power plants. Key words: Loss reduction - energy conservation - efficient lighting energy efficiency Renewable energy hydraulic energy Solar energy Wind energy Biomass Regional integration. 1. INTRODUCTION Electric energy consumption in Egypt has been increasing steadily, while primary energy consumption is growing at a rate of 6.5% on average per annum, the growth in peak load of electricity ranges between 7% and 8%, reaching 10% in the year The rate of increase in energy sales during the period 98/ /2007 was 7.3%, while the averaged GDP growth rate at the same period was 4.6%; accordingly the averaged electricity elasticity per GDP in the same period was Energy demand is rising far, while high population growth continues and millions are willing to enjoy the benefits of improved life style that requires increased amount of energy. Currently, three kinds of power plants are available in Egypt, These are hydro, thermal and wind. Total installed capacity equals MW.

2 554 Energy & Environment Vol. 22, No. 5, 2011 Thermal Hydro Wind Figure 1. Installed Capacity of different generation types In order to deal with energy needs, planners and decision makers of electricity sector are chasing the increase in energy demand. It is always difficult to satisfy the people s needs. Electricity sector is aiming to add 9200MW during the period 2007/2012, and to add 11500MW during the period 2012/2017, having a rate of increase equals about 7.5% annually. Therefore, continuous strengthening the network, building new transmission lines and substations, and expansion of the existing ones is highly needed. Action have to be taken to deal with the growing demand of electric energy, such as adopting energy conservation and loss reduction measures, diversifying energy source through implementing renewable energy technologies, and introducing nuclear plants. In parallel with the exerted efforts to install new power plants, regional interconnection projects with the neighboring countries to benefit from the difference of peak load time from country to country are implemented. Also, different actions were put into practice to reduce energy loss in transmission and distribution networks. Decisions and actions must be based on sound technical and economical considerations. 2. ELECTRIC ENERGY REQUIREMENTS UNTIL 2020 Year 2020 has been selected a target for estimating electric energy future needs. There is almost one decade till the year 2020, which is relatively not far from now, and one cannot claim that this is long term planning, but estimation could be based on relatively sound basis. Results can be used for long term planning covering some decades after It seems that after the year 2020 a lot of changes will affect the decision concerning the electric energy needs and ways to satisfy these needs. The changes may include the extent of Renewable Energy share in the energy mix, mainly development of biomass applications which has a high potential and not yet exploited, development of solar energy, either direct generation of electric power using photo-voltaic systems, or solar thermal generation plants, development of coal fired plants, and achievements with regard to the nuclear program. Also, extent of solar energy used for residential hot water and industrial process heat applications may contribute to energy saving. Development of transport applications and use of hydrogen and natural gas as a fuel source in public transport may also affect the amount of conventional fuel sources used. The extent of

3 Managing the growing energy demand: The case of Egypt 555 energy intensity development in industry, and architectural achievements towards energy conservation could affect the trend of rising energy demand. Figures (2) & (3) show the actual recorded and forecasted Peak Demands and Energy Sales respectively. Figure 2. Figure 3. Estimated values are based on the assumption that both the peak demand and energy sales will increase at a rate of 6%, this rate will be decreased gradually till reaching 5% on Peak load of MW will need a total installed capacity of generation on the network equal to about MW keeping a reserve margin about 15% to safe guard against capacity factor of wind energy plants, aging of some generating units, and regime of operation of hydraulic plants that depend on irrigation needs.

4 556 Energy & Environment Vol. 22, No. 5, 2011 To satisfy the needs, total anticipated capacity of wind energy plants estimated to be 7200MW, hydro power capacity will be 2874 MW. The first nuclear plant is not considered within the period ending by the year ENERGY CONSERVATION AND LOSS REDUCTION Meeting the ever increasing demand on electricity with a high degree of reliability and sustainability has been one of the main targets of electricity sector in Egypt. However; there is some challenges concerning the high consumption rate as a result of the subsidy for some population level and introduction of modern technologies for better life. One of the challenges is the requirement of high investments to expand the power system while other challenge is the limited amount of fossil fuel reserves and the fluctuation of its price internationally. Therefore; Egypt adopted a Program for Energy Conservation and a Program for Energy Efficiency in order to control the electric energy consumption, and raise the efficiency of generation, transmission and distribution, using less consumption residential appliances in the field of lighting, air conditioning and different industrial purposes. These actions will result in keeping the limited resources and delaying its depletion, increasing the exports and using the revenues in development expenditures, decreasing costs of locally produced material and services, improving competence of local products, in addition to preserving the environment by reducing the harmful emissions. Figures (4) & (5) illustrate electric losses according to year 2008/2009 statistics % 9.14% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 3.13% 3.89% 0.00% Figure 4. Percentage losses of Electrical Energy. Total = 16.16% = Figure 5. Amount of losses GWhr/Y. Total = 21000

5 Managing the growing energy demand: The case of Egypt 557 Some of these measures adopted are briefly pointed out as follows: 3.1. Loss reduction in transmission and distribution networks Measures adopted to reduce losses in transmission and distribution networks had resulted loss reduction form 14.3% in the year 80 / 81 to 9.14% nowadays Use of efficient lighting Share of lighting accounts for nearly 34% of the total energy sold in Egypt. Residential sector consumers for lighting purposes about 17.3%, while public and governmental sector consumes about 6.7% of the total energy sold. The lighting energy consumed by industrial sector accounts for 10%. A program for diffusion of efficient lighting system is adopted in two parallel phases: i) Selling of 6 million efficient lighting lamps for residential applications subsidized to the level of 50% of its real costs, the subsidy is born by distribution companies. ii) Installation of 158 thousand efficient lamps for use in the greater Cairo Zone street lighting. The program is targeting creation of awareness between consumers about the economic benefits of such lamps Savings in Generation plants Improvement of thermal power plants by introduction of combined-cycle system, where its total capacity can be increased without additional fuel consumption. Percentage of combined-cycle plants in the unified power systems reached 26.6% in 2007/2008, and 35% in 2008 / 2009, electricity sector is targeting that combined-cycle share in the system will reach 37% by the year 2011/2012. Installation of large steam production units in the order of 325MW having thermal efficiency not less than 43%, while using combined-cycle system of capacity 725MW, the thermal efficiency can reach 58%. Other measures for loss reduction in generating plants as development and Rehabilitation of old power plants, proper maintenance activities, and reduction of internally consumed electric energy of power plants are implemented. Improving energy efficiency at supply side resulted in reducing the overall average specific fuel consumption from 340gm to 221gm of oil equivalent per KWhr Energy efficiency labels and standards Accredited energy efficiency testing laboratories have been used for measurement of electric energy consumed by home appliances. A ministerial decree of the Minister of Industry was issued for applying the specifications and energy efficiency labels for such appliances (refrigerators, air conditioners and washing machines).

6 558 Energy & Environment Vol. 22, No. 5, Industrial energy saving Intensive audits for industrial plants aiming to mitigate the consumed energy are carried out to improve the electric energy consumption via reengineering processes. 4. RENEWABLE ENERGY Energy resources in Egypt are oil, natural gas, hydro power and non-commercial fuels such firewood, agricultural wastes, and dried dung. Due to the depleted nature of Egypt s limited fuel resources, the development of renewable energy technologies has proven to be essential. Renewable energy strategy was developed and incorporated as an integral element of national energy planning. Implementation of such strategy is an essential element of the national plans for achieving sustainable development and protection of the environment via upgrading energy efficiency and replacing conventional polluting sources by renewable sources. During the last decade, Egypt has been one of the developing countries following successful programs for the development of renewable energy resources, with special emphasis on wind energy. The Egyptian government is committed to have 20% of the installed capacity till the year 2020 from renewable energy, including 12% of wind energy within the Egyptian goal to diversify the energy resources. Also, the solar energy was considered and the first solar thermal combined-cycle plant having 140MW capacity is under implementation, and planned to be realized during the year Hydraulic energy Since 1926, the year of operating the first hydro-power plant, Egypt had constructed a total of 2800 MW hydro-power capacities. All the existing hydro-power schemes are located in upper Egypt, south of Cairo. Hydro-power played a significant role in satisfying Egypt s energy needs in the seventies by providing more than two thirds of electricity demand. Since late eighties, the situation has been completely reserved with oil and gas providing about 85% of electricity demand now. The potential hydropower in Egypt is limited to the run-of river plants. Most of hydro-power available in Egypt has been utilized for electric energy production. Small power plants planned to be constructed will not affect satisfying electric energy needs Wind Energy Wind energy in Egypt contributes by a share near to 1% of the energy consumption now. Most of wind energy projects in Egypt exist at some place called Zafarana at the Suez Gulf of the Red Sea. Total installed capacity of realized wind projects running at present is 425MW. One other project is under development at present. Cumulative capacity at Zafarana will reach 545MW on A wind Atlas for Egypt has been developed and updated, in order to define promising areas to build large scale wind farms. Mean while, a feasibility study has been conducted for some very promising area called Gabal El-Zayt at the Red Sea. The site enjoys excellent wind regime having an average wind speed of 10.5m/s. About 700km 2 has been earmarked to host about 3000MW wind farms at the area.

7 Managing the growing energy demand: The case of Egypt 559 In order to fulfill the targeted wind energy plans, more than seven thousand mega watts wind energy projects will be installed by year Recently on Sep. 2009, the Government of Egypt has allocated an area more than six thousand Km 2 East and West of the Nile Valley at upper Egypt dedicated for wind energy projects. This area can host wind projects having total capacity of MW. Fig. 6 illustrates Egypt s recent plans till the year 2020 for wind energy including public and private sector wind farms having total capacity about 7200MW Figure Solar Energy Egypt lies in the Sunbelt area, where a good potential of solar energy is available. In 1981, Solar Atlas for Egypt was issued showing that: Direct normal irradiation ranges between 2000kwh/m2/year at North and 3200 at South. The Sunshine duration ranges between 9-11hrs/day from North to South with very little few cloudy days Domestic Solar water Heating (DSWH) The promotion of solar applications has resulted over 200,000m2 solar heaters are now in operation, the demand is increasing at some modest rate. Lot of efforts is still needed to promote their utilization. Few industrial process heating pilot projects were installed, but with very limited results that didn t encourage establishment of similar projects Photovoltaic application (PV) Total capacity of PV applications installed in Egypt ranges between 4.5 and 5MW for several purposes, such as lighting, wireless communications, advertisements on highways, and water pumping.

8 560 Energy & Environment Vol. 22, No. 5, Solar thermal Electricity Generation The first hybrid solar/ fossil fuel thermal power plant of 140MW capacity has been contracted to be installed at kurimate area, 100km South of Cairo, it includes 20MWe capacity solar field. The project is planned to operate by Based on the results of the first plant, and recent achievements in the technology, a program for solar thermal generation will be concluded, if proven to be economically justified Biomass applications Plant residues are considered the most important traditional fuel in the Egyptian rural areas. Its total amount reaches 19-20million tons dry matter/ year, 60% of this quantity can be used for energy purposes. It is burnt in primitive mud stoves and ovens, or burnt immediately in the fields after harvesting. This leads to great energy and economic losses as well as environmental hazards. Total biomass potential from all resources reach about 36.3 millions/ year. Agricultural residues Plant 18.7 Animal 7.6 Municipal 6.6 Sewage 3.4 At the moment there are about one thousand small farm scale biogas plants in Egypt. This is only a small amount of plants compared to the large potential of organic raw material consumption in Egypt. Only very few big biogas plants exist in Egypt, some problems in relation to establishing of small biogas units, such as, limited space available in the village, cost of energy is subsidized and lack of environmental awareness. The most distinguished achievement in that field is a huge biogas plant of m 3 digester volume has a 18MW electrical power generation plant is constructed at El-Gabal El-Asfar sewage treatment plant for Cairo City. 5. REGIONAL INTEGRATION Electrical interconnection between neighboring countries is one of the main approaches for regional integration and nation s cooperation. It decreases the capital investments needed for electric power plants expenditures. Regional integration between Egypt and Arabic and African countries is justified as the Arabic countries extends from East to West where time difference reaches five hours, in addition to the difference of ambient temperatures between countries. 1 It is worth mentioning that, an initiative called Desertec Industrial Initiative DII have been recently brought out. The initiative is targeting to build a large number of networked Solar Thermal power plants through out the Middle East. North Africa (MENA) region in order to produce sufficient power to meet around 15% of Europe s electricity requirement by 2050, in addition to a substantial portion of power needs of the producer countries. A consortium of 12 German, Spanish and Algerian shareholders has been formulated on 30/10/2009 to analyze and develop the technical, economic, political and social framework for carbon-free power generation in the desert of MENA Region.

9 Managing the growing energy demand: The case of Egypt 561 Other benefits of Regional electric integration are: * Support during emergency conditions through securing energy availability. * Better static and dynamic stability condition of interconnected electric networks. * Better efficiency and reliability of electrical networks. * Improve performance of network with regard to frequency and voltage. * Less reserve capacity needed, and better arrangements for effective maintenance activities keeping electric networks in safe operating conditions. * Making use of the time difference between daily, weekly and seasonable peak demands of different connected networks. * Environmental benefits as a result of less emissions due to decrease of hot reserve capacity needed for each network if operated individually. With respect to economical benefits, a large saving could be achieved in capital investments and operation costs of power plants. Egypt is driving the process of interconnecting the power system in North Africa and Middle East. The following points out to interconnection projects fulfilled, on going and planned. 1. Eastern Interconnection via Jordan. It was commissioned during 1998, with voltage level 400/500kv, it permits power transfer up to 250MW. This is followed by interconnection between Jordan, Syria and Lebanon, to be followed by interconnection between Iraq, Syria and Turkey. 2. Western interconnection via Libya. 220kv transmission line connecting the Egyptian and Libyan network was completed. A project to connect the power systems between Tunisia and Libya is going on in order to exchange power up to a maximum of 150MW in either direction; this will complete the interconnection of Egypt, Libya, Algeria, Morocco and Spain. 3. The Mediterranean Power Pool. The possibility of interconnecting and operating the power system of the seventeen Mediterranean Sea countries is an interesting challenge so far, many electrical connections exist or under development between two or more neighboring countries. However, a complete formation of an integrated power pool will prove beneficial when realized. 4. Interconnection between Egypt and Sudia Arabia. International consultant is performing the design of transmission interconnection between two countries. It is anticipated that the link could carry about 3000MW, and will be realized by the year The Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) and Eastern Africa Power Pool: The diversity of the primary sources of energy in Africa encourages the creation of a Pan-African electrical interconnection network across the continent. This would be to optimize the use of hydro-power resources in conjunction with thermal generation, particularly, in the North and South Africa. A study for interconnection between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia has been completed concluding the feasibility of the project to be implemented; it is expected to finalize the electrical connection by the year 2020.

10 562 Energy & Environment Vol. 22, No. 5, 2011 CONCLUSION Egypt had suffered from the high rate of increase of energy demand during the last three decades. To face the continuous increase in demand, Actions to minimize expenditures were taken through four axes. Activities are carried out in parallel. First of them, building power plants and the associated transmission and distribution networks. Second, measures are adopted to conserve energy and minimize losses. Improving energy efficiency in generation plants had resulted decrease of fuel consumption proportional to the same amount of energy saved. Loss reduction in transmission and distribution networks and use of efficient lamps for lighting served well in this important field of interest. Third, Egyptian strategy had been formulated to diversify the electric energy sources through development and implementation of Renewable Energy technologies, mainly Wind Energy, as hydraulic energy available had nearly been exploited. The Egyptian Government is committed to have 20% of the installed capacity till the year 2020 from renewable energy, including 12% of wind energy, A high potential of biomass resources is available and not efficiently used. An ambitious program to encourage the utilization of the recent developments in biomass technology is highly recommended. Fourth branch of activities to face the growing energy demand is the Regional Interconnection of electric networks. A series of projects to connect the Egyptian network with the neighboring countries had been realized, in the phase of operation, or under implementation and thorough investigation. Regional interconnection helps in reducing the reserve capacity of individual networks, reduce investments needed to build and operate new power plants, and consequently introduce environmental benefits. REFERENCES: 1. Annual reports Egyptian Electricity Holding Company (EEHC). 2. Annual reports New and Renewable Energy Authority (NREA) of Egypt. 3. Master Plan for the Egyptian Power Transmission Network ( ) Egyptian network challenges up to 2020 Mitigation actions CESI March Official announcements made by the Ministry of Electricity and Energy (MOEE) of Egypt during the years 2009, Electric Power in Egypt. Present and Future WEC 2005 (in Arabic). 6. Egypt s role for supporting Regional Energy Cooperation. World Energy Congress & Exhibition Rome Nov Electrical interconnection in NORTH ESCWA region Dr. M.M.Awad Oct (in Arabic). 8. Energy Efficiency policy in Egypt and its prospects Energy improvement and greenhouse gas reduction project publication. GEF UNDP Consultation Study for loss reduction in Egyptian distribution networks. EPS-March The Gulf El Zayt EIA Misr Consulting Engineers Co. July 2007.

11 Managing the growing energy demand: The case of Egypt Wind Energy Development plan for Egypt. Dieter Fries June Procurement notice for 250MW BOO wind power project Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company (EETC) Aug New and Renewable Energy Authority (NREA) Master plan till Wind energy projects in the Red Sea area Consultation report. EPS July Feasibility Study for a large wind farms at Gulf of El Zayt Decon. Fichner June Gulf El Zayt wind power plant project in the Republic of Egypt. Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) Dec Improvement in Energy efficiency of power Supply in Egypt. JICA Dec