White paper. Successful LTE strategies. How to use LTE to build a compelling broadband strategy.

Transcription

1 White paper Successful LTE strategies How to use LTE to build a compelling broadband strategy

2 Contents Introduction...3 Market status...4 Different LTE operator types...5 Aggressive LTE operators...7 Cautious LTE operators...8 Market development...9 LTE subscription forecasts...9 LTE voice...9 Recommendations...11 Successful LTE strategies: How to use LTE to build a compelling broadband strategy Paul Lambert, Senior Analyst What are the ingredients of a successful LTE launch? There are already examples of best practice that have helped to underpin hugely successful LTE launches by operators in markets such as the US, Japan and South Korea. We have meticulously researched and analysed the go-to-market strategy of these leading operators and every other live LTE deployment to build a comprehensive and unrivalled base of knowledge. Who are the most successful LTE operators to date, and why? How have they positioned LTE to drive customer uptake? How are operators effectively positioning LTE? How can operators maximize the value of their LTE investments? What pricing and value propositions are working in the market and which aren t? How have different operator strategies influenced LTE subscription uptake? Our latest LTE report is based on in-depth and extensive interviews with LTE operators as well as a full assessment of the launch strategies of all 52 (as at April 24, 2012) live LTE networks globally. In conjunction with ITM s industry knowledge, the report distils the lessons learned to date by LTE operators to arrive at concrete examples of best practice that have proved to be successful with end users. The report provides clear and actionable conclusions of what has worked for the early LTE launches, ones that are applicable to all operators looking to launch LTE, and which will help them to avoid replicating the mis-steps some LTE operators have made and are making. Informa UK Limited All rights reserved. The contents of this publication are protected by international copyright laws, database rights and other intellectual property rights. The owner of these rights is Informa UK Limited, our affiliates or other third party licensors. All product and company names and logos contained within or appearing on this publication are the trade marks, service marks or trading names of their respective owners, including Informa UK Limited. This publication may not be:- (a) copied or reproduced; or (b) lent, resold, hired out or otherwise circulated in any way or form without the prior permission of Informa UK Limited. Whilst reasonable efforts have been made to ensure that the information and content of this publication was correct as at the date of first publication, neither Informa UK Limited nor any person engaged or employed by Informa UK Limited accepts any liability for any errors, omissions or other inaccuracies. Readers should independently verify any facts and figures as no liability can be accepted in this regard - readers assume full responsibility and risk accordingly for their use of such information and content. Any views and/or opinions expressed in this publication by individual authors or contributors are their personal views and/or opinions and do not necessarily reflect the views and/or opinions of Informa UK Limited. This is an extract from Successful LTE Strategies report To find out more visit: Contact: Giovanni Cerrini giovanni.cerrini@informa.com +44 (20) Informa UK Ltd. All rights reserved.

3 Introduction LTE launches are accelerating, but not all operators have the right business model 2G-to-3G migration offered the promise of a whole new business model from voice and SMS services to the mobile Internet and rich content. Unlike 2G-to-3G, 3G-to-4G is evolutionary. However, the advantages that 4G/ LTE offers much greater capacity to offer DSL-like services on the move, not to mention the prospect of the "Internet of things" are likely to turn out to be more revolutionary over time than even the migration from 2G-to-3G. This is because a combination of 3G and 4G, in tandem with the boom in smartphone adoption and use, will bring about a major leap in the number of people using mobile broadband, the way they use it, and the amount they use it. According to the latest survey conducted by Informa Telecoms & Media to gauge the industry s perceptions on LTE, the majority see a clear need to launch LTE networks now, with two-thirds of respondents saying the time is right to launch LTE in their market today. However, while there is broad agreement on the need to launch LTE, there are diverse opinions on both why operators need to launch LTE now and also the reasons for doing so. While some operators are looking to LTE primarily to alleviate capacity from stressed legacy networks, others are looking to add value and increase brand value through technology leadership and enhancing the overall mobile broadband proposition. And, while some operators are looking to LTE generate additional revenues, it is surprising that the majority are not expecting LTE to create new revenue streams. This raises a fundamental question: If LTE doesn t create new revenue streams, how can operators make a return on their LTE investments? Our research into the LTE market explores the core business and strategic questions operators need to answer before launching services: How can operators maximize the value of their LTE investments? How can operators effectively position LTE? What LTE pricing and value propositions are working in the market and which aren t? To approach these core issues, we ve sought to answer these three key questions: Which are the most successful LTE operators to date, and why? How have they positioned LTE to drive customer uptake? How have different operator strategies influenced LTE subscription uptake? In this White Paper, we ve approached these topics and questions by drawing on our recently-published research into the LTE business case. During our research, we found that operators that have launched LTE to date fall into two groups those that have been successful in driving uptake of services and those who haven t. Or, put another way, some operators have found what is for them a successful LTE business model while others have yet to do so. It is crucial that operators make a return on their LTE investments and, with the right business model, the evidence to date shows that they will such is the appetite among end users, if stimulated in the right way, for faster and better mobile internet access. I hope that this White Paper provides both a valuable insight into the business models we have seen to be a solid foundation for profitable LTE strategies, as well as an introduction to our latest research Informa UK Ltd. All rights reserved. 3

4 Market status The market push by the few early and aggressive LTE launchers obscures market reality, with the majority of operators cautious on subscriber uptake. While LTE is the fastest-growing cellular technology in history in terms of subscription-number growth, it is still very much a new technology both in terms of the total number of subscriptions and also the maturity of the service proposition. With a few notable exceptions in the US, Japan and South Korea, a combination of factors most notably the lack of a clear value proposition for LTE, high service prices, a limited selection of LTE smartphones and limited network coverage has led to the vast majority of operators moving very cautiously on LTE subscription uptake. LTE has been deployed initially in urban hotspots, with only three rollouts to date focused on rural areas first, all in Germany and as a result of regulatory requirements. A snapshot of the market at this early stage around 27 months after the first LTE network went live shows that 57 networks have been launched in 30 countries (see fig. 1). In terms of subscription uptake, there are two clear categories of LTE operators: those that have pushed the technology aggressively the clear minority; and those that haven t. The US operators Verizon Wireless and AT&T, NTT DoCoMo in Japan and SKT and LGU+ in South Korea have all pursued LTE subscription growth aggressively. However, the majority of operators have seen very weak LTE subscription growth, for the reasons already Fig. 1: Global, LTE operators, by region and country, Apr-12 Country Operator Technology Start date Asia Pacific Australia Telstra LTE1800 Sep-11 Hong Kong CSL New World LTE1800/2600 May-11 CSL New World LTE2600 May-11 India Bharti LTE2300 Apr-12 Japan eaccess LTE1800 Mar-12 NTT DoCoMo LTE2100 Dec-10 Softbank Mobile LTE2500 Feb-12 South Korea KT Corp LTE1800 Jan-12 LG U+ LTE800 Jul-11 SK Telecom LTE800 Jul-11 MobileOne LTE1800/2600 Jun-11 Singapore SingTel Mobile LTE1800/2600 Dec-11 Eastern Europe Armenia K-Telecom LTE2600 Dec-11 Belarus Yota Bel LTE2600 Dec-11 Estonia EMT Estonia LTE1800/2600 Jan-12 Hungary T-Mobile Hungary LTE1800 Jan-12 Latvia LMT LTE1800 Jun-11 Lithuania Omnitel LTE1800 May-11 Poland Centernet LTE1800 Sep-10 Mobyland LTE1800 Sep-10 Polkomtel LTE1800 Nov-11 Russia Yota LTE2600 Dec-11 Western Europe Austria Hutchison 3G Austria LTE2600 Nov-11 mobilkom Austria LTE2600 Oct-10 T-Mobile Austria LTE2600 Jul-11 Denmark TDC Mobil LTE2600 Oct-11 Telia Denmark LTE2600 Dec-10 Finland DNA Finland LTE2600 Dec-11 TeliaSonera Finland LTE2600 Nov-10 Germany O2 Germany LTE2600 Jul-11 Telekom LTE2600 Apr-11 Vodafone D2 LTE2600 Dec-10 Norway Netcom LTE2600 Dec-09 Portugal TMN LTE2600 Mar-12 Note: Figures refer to quarter-end. Vodafone Portugal LTE2600 Feb Informa UK Ltd. All rights reserved.

5 Fig. 1: Global, LTE operators, by region and country, Apr-12 (continued) Country Operator Technology Start date Western Europe (continued) Sweden HI3G LTE800/900/2600 Dec-11 North America stated. Even the early running that the Nordic operators made on launching LTE hasn t resulted in meaningful LTE subscription uptake (see fig. 2). The number of LTE launches and the LTE subscription numbers are poised to accelerate dramatically. The responses to Informa Telecoms & Media s 2012 LTE Survey showed that the largest proportion of operators, 34.1%, plan to launch LTE services this year, and a considerable number, 25.4%, are planning to launch in 2013 (see fig. 3). Tele2 Sweden LTE800/900/2600 Nov-10 Telenor Sweden LTE800/900/2600 Nov-10 TeliaSonera Sweden LTE800/900/2600 Dec-09 Canada Bell Wireless Affiliates LTE2100 (IV) Sep-11 Rogers Wireless LTE2100 (IV) Jul-11 Telus Mobility LTE2100 (IV) Feb-12 US AT&T Mobility USA LTE700/2100 (IV) Sep-11 Latin America Leap Wireless LTE1900/2100 (IV) Dec-11 Metro PCS LTE1900/2100 (IV) Sep-10 US Cellular LTE700/2100 (IV) Mar-12 Verizon Wireless LTE700/2100 (IV) Dec-10 Brazil Sky Brazil LTE2500 Dec-11 Puerto Rico America Movil Puerto Rico LTE700 Feb-12 AT&T Mobility Puerto Rico LTE700/2100 (IV) Nov-11 Open Mobile LTE700 Apr-12 Uruguay ANCEL LTE Dec-11 Middle East Kuwait Viva Kuwait LTE Jan-13 Saudi Arabia Saudi Telecom Company LTE2300 Sep-11 SMTC Saudi Arabia LTE1800 Sep-11 UAE Etisalat UAE LTE2600 Dec-11 Africa Angola Movicel LTE1800 Apr-12 Note: Figures refer to quarter-end. LTE rollouts to date highlight the problem of spectrum fragmentation between regions and within regions between countries. While the majority of LTE rollouts are in the 2600MHz band (see fig. 4), North America and Asia Pacific are deploying LTE in their own bands, Europe is focused on 800MHz and 2600 MHz, with 1800MHz rollouts to follow. While the vast majority of LTE rollouts to date have been FDD-based, LTE rollouts using TDD spectrum have taken place in Poland and Saudi Arabia, while China has a significant commitment to the technology. According to the survey, the 2600MHz band will continue to dominate LTE launches, with 1800MHz also set to remain prevalent, although LTE band fragmentation is also reflected in the survey responses, with the majority of available bands seeing some operator commitment to a greater or lesser degree (see fig. 5). Different LTE operator types The aggressive early adopters have used LTE to reinforce existing market positioning, typically to improve perceptions about the quality of their networks and the performance they offer. It s crucial for operators to adopt the right approach to launching LTE as soon as possible, given the broad commitment to roll out networks this year and next. This is especially the case given that the majority of operators believe there is a market for launching LTE now (see fig. 6). What are the key drivers for operators launching LTE now? The majority of operators, 35.1%, are looking to LTE to create new revenue streams, according to Informa s LTE survey. However, many operators are also launching LTE to relieve capacity on their existing networks, as well as to build brand value through technology leadership (see fig. 7). On the one hand, LTE is a new technology offering operators the opportunity to launch new broadband services in new ways, potentially generating new revenues; on the other hand, it is simply an extension to the strategies operators are already pursuing with 3G technology to drive uptake of their data plans Informa UK Ltd. All rights reserved. 5

6 Fig. 2: Global, LTE subscriptions (000s), by country and operator, 1Q10-1Q12 Country Operator 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 Asia Pacific Australia Telstra Hong Kong CSL New World Japan NTT DoCoMo , ,913.2 South Korea KT Corp LG U SK Telecom ,119.7 Singapore MobileOne Eastern Europe SingTel Mobile Armenia K-Telecom Belarus Yota Bel Estonia EMT Estonia Latvia LMT Lithuania Omnitel Poland Polkomtel Russia Yota Western Europe Austria Hutchison 3G mobilkom T-Mobile Denmark TDC Mobil Telia Finland DNA TeliaSonera Germany O Telekom Vodafone D Norway Netcom Sweden Tele North America Telenor TeliaSonera Canada BWA Rogers Telus 6.0 US AT&T Mobility ,469.0 Note: Figures refer to quarter-end. Leap Wireless Metro PCS US Cellular 2.0 Verizon , , , , Informa UK Ltd. All rights reserved.

7 Fig. 2: Global, LTE subscriptions (000s), by country and operator, 1Q10-1Q12 (continued) Country Operator 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 Latin America Puerto Rico America Movil 0.4 AT&T Mobility Uruguay ANCEL Middle East Saudi Arabia STC SMTC UAE Etisalat Global total , , , ,089.8 Note: Figures refer to quarter-end. The ways that the early-launchers of LTE are approaching LTE reflects this dichotomy: Some are positioning LTE in new ways, mainly as a direct substitute or replacement for fixed broadband services. This is happening in rural areas in particular when regulatory requirements have demanded it, most notably in Germany. The majority are positioning LTE as an extension of their 3G mobile broadband proposition, one that many, but not all, are charging a premium for. Operators that are positioning LTE as a stand-alone premium mobile broadband service are using enhanced speed as the main, if not sole, benefit of paying the extra monthly charges being made to access the network. Aggressive LTE operators For the two main US mobile operators, Verizon and AT&T, the decision to move so aggressively on LTE was, and still is, a function of the particular characteristics of that market the early award of spectrum suitable for LTE deployments, combined with stressed legacy networks. Verizon Wireless was the first operator in the US to launch LTE, Fig. 3: When are you planning to launch commercial services using LTE? (If you have already launched, please state the launch year) 2014: 17.3% 2016+: 4.0% 2015: 8.1% 2013: 25.4% n=336 Number of operators* LTE1800/2600 LTE1800 LTE1900/2100 (IV) LTE2100 LTE2300 in December It was very aggressive in terms of both build-out and subscriber acquisition targets because it needed to transition away 2009: 0.6% 2010: 4.0% 2011: 6.4% LTE2500 LTE2600 LTE700/2100 (IV) 2012: 34.1% Fig. 4: Global, LTE launches by technology and band, 1Q12 *Where available LTE700 LTE800/900/2600 LTE800 from the dwindling CDMA ecosystem to a global standard while at the same time ensuring that it made its network investments in a technology 2012 Informa UK Ltd. All rights reserved. 7

8 with a stronger future than 1xEV-DO. To this end, the operator is trying to migrate its 1xEV-DO subscribers to its LTE network to minimize the amount of investment it needs to make on its 1xEV-DO network, and aims to have LTE coverage comparable with 3G by mid AT&T, meanwhile, needed to relieve the much-publicized strain on its 3G network, which was particularly acute in key markets such as New York City and San Francisco. Equally as important, AT&T had to ensure that its main rival didn t create an uncatchable lead in the Fig. 5: Which spectrum bands do you intend to use to deploy LTE? (multiple choice) Number of operators* MHz 700MHz 800MHz 850MHz 900MHz n= MHz 1500MHz 1700MHz 1800MHz 1900MHz 2100MHz 2100MHz (AWS) 2300MHz 2600MHz Other (please specify) Fig. 6: Do you believe there is a viable business case to launch LTE in your market today? No 29.2% n= 341 Yes 70.8% Fig. 7: What is your primary motivation for deploying LTE? Other (please specify) 3.0% To enter mobile data market for the first time 7.1% Current networks do not offer sufficient capacity 23.8% country s nascent LTE market, demonstrating that, once a strong competitor launches LTE, operators are pressured to respond to remain competitive. Japan s NTT DoCoMo is pushing LTE aggressively to capture the high ground with early adopters and enterprise users. Based on the advantages it derived from launching 3G early, DoCoMo perceives that there are clear benefits in being first to market with a new technology in its extremely tech-savvy home market. DoCoMo had 2 million LTE users at end-march, surpassing its end-march annual target of 1.3 million, meaning that the service is beginning to move out of the early-adopter segment and into the broader market. Cautious LTE operators Operators that haven t been successful in signing up users cite a combination of three main factors: Although LTE dongles are in the market, the fact that the fastincreasing majority of mobile data usage is via smartphones rather than dongles has been a lag on the uptake of services. There is a perceived lack of a strong need for mobile broadband speeds faster than 3G offers, in tandem with a lack of a clear value proposition for LTE that is distinct from 3G. Operators with robust 3G networks don t face capacity constraints compelling them to migrate subscribers to LTE quickly. Build brand value through technology leadership 31.0% Create new revenue streams based on LTE 35.1% n= Informa UK Ltd. All rights reserved.

9 Market development With the ongoing increase in the amount of data that existing mobile users consume, as well as the accelerating penetration of mobile broadband into new user groups, operators will increasingly differentiate themselves on the quality of their mobile broadband experience. Many new LTE networks will be launched in 2012 in tandem with broadly conservative approaches to positioning and pricing services. Greater innovation, albeit very gradual, will be seen in the market in 2013 and beyond. This innovation will be driven by the availability of a wider range of LTE devices running different operating systems (ios, Android and Windows) in conjunction with more widespread rollouts of LTE networks, as well as the broad deployment and uptake of an industry-standard approach to voice over LTE (VoLTE). Smartphones offering a compelling user experience drove mass-market uptake of 3G subscriptions and LTE will be no different. Again, just like the iphone kick-started massmarket mobile broadband use, LTE smartphones, in particular the LTE iphone expected in 3Q12, will have a significant positive impact on LTE subscription uptake in markets where the device works on those networks. LTE subscription forecasts Informa Telecoms & Media forecasts indicate that Asia Pacific will be the region with the most LTE subscriptions from the end of 2013 onwards, driven by expected largescale rollouts in China. The global total is forecast to reach million by the end of LTE subscriptions will see the highest year-on-year growth between 2012 and 2013, as operators worldwide, in particular in Europe and Asia Pacific, launch LTE networks (see fig. 8). LTE voice Although an industry-wide approach has been agreed for VoLTE, there are no VoLTE-enabled devices in the market. Therefore, operators will have to take a phased approach to LTE voice. Most operators have launched LTE with circuit-switched fallback (CSFB) for voice before transitioning to VoLTE in the longer term once the core network elements have been deployed and a wider range of devices are available. Approaches to CSFB vary and operators need to decide between a handset and a networkbased solution. Regional US mobile operator MetroPCS was the first operator to launch LTE in the US, in 3Q10. It says it will be the first operator in the world to offer VoLTE, in 3Q12, with a device supplied by Samsung in the first instance. MetroPCS wants to shift voice traffic from its CDMA network so it can re-use that spectrum for LTE, while Verizon Wireless is set to launch VoLTE services by the end of this year. How operators approach VoLTE will be a key factor in determining the value of their service offerings in general and LTE services in particular. According to Informa s LTE survey, IMS voice will be the main approach to VoLTE (see fig. 9). However, LTE networks will give rise to more competition on voice than at present because consumers will have more choice on how they make voice calls. This means that operators will have to ensure their voice offerings remain competitive in terms of pricing and features as OTT players launch increasingly innovative and compelling offers. Fig. 8: Global, LTE subscriptions by region, North America Latin America Asia Pacific Western Europe Eastern Europe Middle East Africa Subscriptions (mil.) Note: Figures refer to year-end 2012 Informa UK Ltd. All rights reserved. 9

10 At the moment, LTE operators are continuing to treat voice and data as separate services, but, as voice becomes part of the LTE value proposition, there will be more innovation on bundling voice and data into single tariffs. Given that many operators already bundle large numbers of voice minutes with data allowances into 3G subscriptions, this strategy is expected to develop in the LTE domain, with increasing numbers of minutes bundled into subscriptions that cover voice and data access. Fig. 9: What do you think will be the primary solution for voice over LTE? Other (please specify) 3.4% Dual radio (e.g., Verizon s model: LTE for data, CDMA for voice) 12.4% Circuit-switch fallback (CSFB) 11.0% Operator-managed OTT VoIP 13.5% Unmanaged OTT VoIP (e.g., Skype, Viber, etc) 11.7% IMS-based VoIP (OneVoice/VoLTE) 47.9% Informa UK Ltd. All rights reserved.

11 Recommendations Define the proposition: Is LTE another part of the mobile broadband jigsaw or an entirely new picture? Operators need to decide if they are going to position LTE as just another part of the mobile broadband jigsaw or position the technology as offering significant benefits over 3G. If the latter, then evidence from operators that have positioned LTE as a new proposition compared with 3G suggests that operators need to rely on more than just speed to make a success of this strategy. Many operators have yet to articulate the LTE consumer value proposition effectively, and those that haven t must work to convey the real value of LTE to customers. Key questions operators need to address are: Why should consumers sign up to LTE? What difference does speed make to them? If operators don t charge a premium for LTE, they can still make a return on investment by enhancing the overall mobile broadband proposition relative to rivals. Old principles hold absolutely with the advent of LTE. The operator with the best network and the most competitively-priced services that offer the best perceived value will still win on ARPU and churn. LTE should be seen as a way to reinforce this fact rather than as a way to generate new revenues. Build a story out of LTE don t just sell a technology at a competitive price Operators are still positioning LTE as a technology rather than a service that can provide clear value benefits over 3G. They should attempt to clearly communicate the advantages of LTE over 3G in terms of the overall quality of experience. The entire retail chain should be involved in this, including giving online demos of the benefits of LTE over 3G in retail stores. Take customers on a journey of continually and incrementally improving the mobile broadband experience. Be ready to respond to first movers Operators need to be prepared for launch so that they are in a position to react quickly if a main rival launches. However, operators should also resist launching simply because the competition has the decision must be based on a sound business case and a thorough examination of the risks of not launching. How much advantage can an operator gain by waiting to launch while it expands its LTE coverage and hones its service proposition? Offer a compelling user experience at low price points to drive uptake and further usage over time Users will consume more data over LTE if the experience is perceptibly better than 3G and so are more likely to be prepared to pay to use the service more. Offering an LTE experience with small amounts of data per month (e.g., sub 1GB) is a sound way to encourage the uptake of the service and, once the customer is signed up, to then encourage a greater usage of it, rather than expecting customers to jump to significantly higher speeds and data allowances than they are used to on 3G Informa UK Ltd. All rights reserved. 11

12 ABOUT INFORMA TELECOMS & MEDIA Informa Telecoms & Media is the leading provider of business intelligence and strategic marketing solutions to global telecoms and media markets. Driven by constant first-hand contact with the industry, our 65 analysts and researchers produce a range of intelligence services including news and analytical products, in-depth market reports and datasets focused on technology, strategy and content. For more details on Informa Telecoms & Media and how we can help your company identify future trends and opportunities, please contact: Giovanni Cerrini Informa Telecoms & Media giovanni.cerrini@informa.com +44 (20) /7 access to business-critical insight, analysis and data Cutting edge information on all fixed line, cable and broadband markets Keeping the world s leading cellular organisations better informed connect Join us on LinkedIn: Follow us on Twitter: us: marketing.enquiries@informa.com Subscribe to our Connect Informa UK Ltd. All rights reserved.