Mobile Evolution. John W. Strand. Strand Consult
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1 Mobile Evolution John W. Strand
2 The mobile market will develop in 2 directions Mr. Voice Mr. Data
3 The customers migration... On the move.. Lov ARPU Medium ARPU High ARPU Voice... Data... Medium ARPU High ARPU
4 Korea continues to show the way. SK Telecom: ARPU (EUR) by terminal-type 3G (JUNE brand) Voice; 30,6 Data; 15,8 3G (1X-EVDO) Voice; 28,4 Data; 11,3 2.5G (1X RTT) Voice; 23,5 Data; 3,4 2G (95A/B) Voice; 16,8 Data; 0, G customers in Korea spend 11 to 15 EUR per month on data-service
5 The dilemma of the Mobile Industry. Everyone is talking about the migration from Voice to Data New terminals with increased functionality New services (MMS, XHTML, Push to Talk..) New service based mobile portals Vodafone Live Migration from GSM over GPRS/EDGE to WCDMA All this in a world where voice and SMS traffic represents around 90 95% of the operators revenue...
6 The dilemma of the Terminal-market Antal mobillterminaler lanceret per år - globalt (Nokia + Siemens + Motorola + Sony + Ericsson) E2004 and you have to add the new players to these numbers
7 From single device owners to multiple device owners dream or reality.. From an operator perspective this means multiple subsidies to the same customer who can only use one device at the time the acquisition costs rise and ARPU remains the same or rises slightly...
8 Case: Denmark Telmore 78 employees at Telmore have had a greater influence on the Danish mobile market the last 18 months than all the other players put together...
9 Price Development... Prisen for et "voice"-minut hos discountselskaberne, mar nov Prisen for en SMS-besked hos discountselskaberne, mar nov ,40 Telmore 0,26 Telmore 1,30 CBB Mobil 0,24 CBB Mobil 1,20 1,10 1,00 0,90 0,80 0,70 debitel Smarttalk Tele2Mobil Online TDC Mixit Sonofon Selvhenter Orange Just Talk Telia Cash 0,22 0,20 0,18 0,16 0,14 debitel Smarttalk Tele2Mobil Online TDC Mixit Sonofon Selvhenter Orange Just Talk Telia Cash 0,60 mar-02 apr-02 maj-02 jun-02 jul-02 aug-02 sep-02 okt-02 nov-02 dec-02 jan-03 feb-03 mar-03 apr-03 maj-03 jun-03 jul-03 aug-03 sep-03 okt-03 nov-03 mar- apr- maj- jun- jul- aug-sep- okt- nov- dec- jan- feb- mar- apr- maj- jun- jul- aug-sep- okt- nov Telmore 1,25 1,25 1,25 1,25 1,25 1,25 1,25 1,25 1,25 1,25 1,25 1,25 1,10 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 0,85 0,85 0,85 CBB Mobil 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 0,99 0,99 0,99 0,99 0,99 0,74 0,69 0,69 debitel Smarttalk 1,15 1,15 1,15 1,15 1,15 1,15 0,89 0,89 0,89 0,89 0,89 Tele2Mobil Online 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 0,95 0,95 0,95 0,68 0,68 TDC Mixit 1,30 1,30 1,30 1,30 1,20 1,20 1,20 1,20 1,00 1,00 0,95 0,95 Sonofon Selvhenter 1,00 0,85 0,85 0,85 Orange Just Talk 0,75 0,75 0,75 0,75 0,75 0,75 0,75 0,75 Telia Cash 0,70 0,12 mar-02 apr-02 mar- 02 apr- 02 maj-02 jun-02 maj- jun- jul jul-02 aug-02 sep-02 aug- 02 sep- 02 okt-02 nov-02 okt- 02 nov- 02 dec-02 jan-03 feb-03 dec- jan mar-03 apr-03 maj-03 jun-03 jul-03 aug-03 sep-03 okt-03 nov-03 Telmore 0,25 0,25 0,25 0,25 0,25 0,25 0,25 0,25 0,25 0,25 0,20 0,20 0,20 0,20 0,20 0,20 0,20 0,20 0,20 0,20 0,20 CBB Mobil 0,24 0,24 0,24 0,24 0,24 0,24 0,24 0,24 0,24 0,24 0,24 0,24 0,24 0,24 0,24 0,24 0,24 0,19 0,19 0,19 0,19 debitel Smarttalk 0,15 0,15 0,15 0,15 0,15 0,15 0,19 0,19 0,19 0,19 0,19 Tele2Mobil Online 0,19 0,19 0,19 0,19 0,19 0,19 0,19 0,19 0,19 0,19 0,19 TDC Mixit 0,25 0,25 0,25 0,25 0,25 0,25 0,25 0,25 0,20 0,20 0,20 0,20 Sonofon Selvhenter 0,20 0,20 0,20 0,20 Orange Just Talk 0,25 0,25 0,25 0,25 0,25 0,25 0,25 0,25 Telia Cash 0,20 feb- 03 mar- 03 apr- 03 maj- jun- jul aug- 03 sep- 03 okt- nov
10 Growth over time. Change in size of customer base from 1H 1999 to 2H 2000 and from 2H 2000 to 1H 2003 Company 1H H growth in number of customers for period 1H H growth in % for period 2H H growth in number of customers for period 2H H growth in % for period TDC Mobil ,7% ,3% Sonofon ,8% ,1% Orange ,4% ,5% Telia ,3% ,6% Tele2Mobil ,5% ,7% Telmore ,3% ,1% CBB Mobil 0 0,0% ,6% debitel ,1% ,7% Øvrige ,6% ,1% Total growth for period
11 Minutes over time Total Mobile minutes (In- and outgoing) Denmark - TDC (Excl. Duet) Finland - TeliaSonera (Outgoing) Elisa Norway - Telenor TeliaSonera Sweden - TeliaSonera Tele Change y/y Denmark - TDC (Excl. Duet) 18% 16% 17% 12% 12% 11% 10% 13% 13% 16% 19% Finland - TeliaSonera (F) 16% 15% 12% 10% 7% 7% 6% 6% 7% 4% 5% -3% - Elisa 19% 16% 10% 2% 11% 9% 5% 14% 5% 6% 15% 12% Norway - Telenor 14% 11% 6% 8% 5% 12% 8% 5% 6% 3% 3% 5% - TeliaSonera (N) 21% 25% 29% 32% 33% 29% 25% 25% 26% 17% 17% 15% Sweden - TeliaSonera (S) 22% 17% 16% 11% 8% 13% 8% 4% 5% -1% 5% -4% - Tele2 37% 39% 38% 46% 10% 3% 2% -9% 9% 7% 5% 5%
12 ARPU over time ARPU (EUR) Denmark - TDC (Excl. Duet) Sonofon (Group) Orange (Group) TeliaSonera Finland - TeliaSonera Elisa Norway - Telenor TeliaSonera Sweden - TeliaSonera Tele Vodafone Change y/y Denmark - TDC (Excl. Duet) -14% -10% -10% -8% 3% 5% 10% -4% -6% -15% -22% - Sonofon (Group) -2% -3% 0% -4% 3% 3% -7% -8% -16% -17% -11% - Orange (Group) -6% -5% 0% 10% 9% 36% 30% 28% 38% 2% -9% - TeliaSonera -5% -1% 12% -7% 7% 8% 2% 2% 11% 1% 38% Finland - TeliaSonera -2% 0% -4% -3% -1% -2% -3% 0% -3% -8% 0% - Elisa 1% 4% -1% -7% -4% -2% 2% -1% -4% -2% 2% Norway - Telenor 2% 4% -4% 0% 2% -1% 3% 0% 4% 3% 2% - TeliaSonera -15% 3% -5% 3% 8% 7% 14% 10% 6% 1% -1% Sweden - TeliaSonera -6% 5% -8% -4% -2% -6% -5% -5% -1% 0% -5% - Tele2-4% -5% -7% -7% -5% -10% -9% -9% -8% -10% -12% - Vodafone 0% 0% -1% -5% -8% -9% -11% -7% -12% -10% -7%
13 The drivers of the mobile market New smart terminals Price of voice minute and SMS Coverage, regionally, nationally and internat. Public opinion about the operator Roaming possibilities VAS Premium SMS / TV votes
14 Case: Walled garden vs. Open garden Europa; Open garden (SMS, CPA model) Japan/Korea; Walled Garden, only authorised content providers can access and use operators billing system
15 Open vs. Walled garden... Vodafone Live SK-Korea On the move.. 3-UK Telenor WALLED OPEN
16 What to invest in.. Walled Understanding the market Platforms Services Marketing Employees Open Billing platform API solution Legal aid Partner Programmes Partners Product development Market development
17 Open vs. Walled garden. Walled High CAPEX Long production time High customer knowledge Focus on products Few services Open Low CAPEX Fast production time High market knowledge Focus on the Market Many services Less dynamic Very dynamic
18 Premium VAS market in Denmark - status.. From 100 to 200 and on the way towards 400 million kroner Around 2 mill Danes have used one or more services A whole industry and over 200 jobs emerged based on the CPA model Customers have learnt to use their mobile for other things than just voice Ordinary SMS traffic has also been stimulated Very few complaints compared to market size Self-regulation has been a success All this despite a political system that has no understanding of the mobile market...
19 The role of Media Companies... Marketing of mobile services Educating customers Interacting with customers Creating new cross-media products create and grow new markets Generate revenue for themselves and operators
20 Case: DR Danish national TV. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 66+ år år 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% år år 0% år Stjerne Handyman Boogie Rene Ord år
21 Exclusive content or content for all... The Media Group All Exclusive Content Content Content Content Content Operator 1 Operator 2 Operator 3 Operator 4 Operator 5 C U S T O M E R S
22 Case: The Media Group...
23 New devices, New opportunities - New challenge Case: Nokia 9500 Tri-band Operation EGSM 900, GSM 1800/1900 and EGSM 850, GSM 1800/1900 networks Automatic switching between bands Connectivity High-speed, flexible data connections with EGPRS (EDGE) and Wireless LAN Bluetooth wireless technology Infrared USB 2.0 connectivity (Nokia Connectivity Cable DKU-2) Pop-Port interface Data Transfer Up to kbps in EDGE networks Up to 53.6 kbps in GPRS networks Up to 11 Mbit/s in Wireless LANs
24 One SIM card 3 Networks GSM UMTS WLAN Same price for data traffic Higher speeds Lower production costs More opportunities All in All - a better customer experience
25 Case: Mobilkom Austria GPRS, WLAN and UMTS Data Package 7 Data Package 25 Data Package50 Data Package100 Monthly fee Trafic inc. (mb) Additional (mb)
26 Where is the difference between 2.5G og 3G 2.5G terminal Symbian OS version 7 Microsoft OS Smartphone 2003 Microsoft Pocket PC 2003 Manufactures own OS WAP 2.0 Browser (XHTML) Java WM for execution of applications SMS, EMS, MMS client IM client (MSN, Yahoo,AOL) client (Pop3, EMAP) Mediaplayer (MS, Oplayo, Real) 3G terminal Symbian OS version 7 Microsoft OS Smartphone 2003 Microsoft Pocket PC 2003 Manufactures own OS WAP 2.0 Browser (XHTML) Java WM for execution of applications SMS, EMS, MMS client IM client (MSN, Yahoo,AOL) client (Pop3, EMAP) Mediaplayer (MS, Oplayo, Real)
27 Main differences between 2.5G and 3G... Larger bandwidth faster download, streaming and video calls Experience from Korea where they have had 3G for over 2 years - shows that it is difficult to find applications that utilise the larger bandwidth
28 Case: Mobile Streaming Siemens SX1. Campaign for Siemens SX1.in Denmark The campaign site included: Mobile Streaming (Reuters news) Logo & Ring tones Games Companions More than people tried the services (2000 of them on tried the mobile streaming) The streaming service was activated by sending a SMS to a short code, and after words the user receives a link witch automatically starts up the streaming browser and plays the video. The service was enabled for Real One player and 3GP players. The service was made for 2.5 Network (GPRS) with a bit rate of only 20kbit/sec
29 Case: Telenor Norway Mobile music The SIM card is the key that ensures that the intellectual property rights to the music remain intact...
30 Flash light fore mobile..
31 It s about 44 things... Business models Business models Business models Business models Business models Business models Business models Business models Business models Business models Business models Business models Business models Business models Business models Business models Business models Business models Business models Business models Business models Business models Business models Business models Business models Business models Business models Business models Business models Business models Business models Business models Business models Business models Business models Business models Business models Business models Business models Business models Business models Business models Business models Business models.
32 The successful Operator. Licens Networks Customer-base VAS Distribution Volume Voice traffic Data traffic Roaming Billing CPA SDP Market development Direct sale Own stores MVNO SP
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