Building a profitable wireless network to deliver an exceptional customer experience

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1 European Summit 2013: Enabling innovation, driving profitability Building a profitable wireless network to deliver an exceptional customer experience 10 October 2013 Chris Nicoll, Principal Analyst, Wireless Networks Franck Chevalier, Manager, Operational Consulting EVENT PARTNER:

2 2 Operators embracing LTE on a global scale LTE technology advances service options Key factors to consider for LTE network deployment Total cost of ownership analysis Conclusions

3 LTE is spreading around the world, thanks to flexible spectrum utilisation, and mobile broadband services There were more than 200 million LTE connections worldwide, accounting for just 3% of mobile connections, by the end of Total LTE connections will reach 1.5 billion by Emerging Asia Pacific is set to become the dominant world LTE market, with its 420 million connections accounting for 27% of LTE connections worldwide by Only 11% of that region s connections will have migrated to LTE, as so there will still be considerable untapped potential for further take-up of LTE in that region. Australia 2.1% Nordics 2.4% Japan 12.7% South Korea 21.5% Germany 2.0% UAE 0.1% 2013 Saudi Arabia 0.4% Italy 0.2% USA 57.6% Russia 1.0% 3

4 LTE is spreading around the world, thanks to flexible spectrum utilisation, and mobile broadband services 4 There were more than 200 million LTE connections worldwide, accounting for just 3% of mobile connections, by the end of Total LTE connections will reach 1.5 billion by Emerging Asia Pacific is set to become the dominant world LTE market, with its 420 million connections accounting for 27% of LTE connections worldwide by Only 11% of that region s connections will have migrated to LTE, as so there will still be considerable untapped potential for further take-up of LTE in that region. South Korea 5% France 5% Russia 5% Germany 5% India 5% UK 5% Japan 12% Brazil 4% 2018 China 24% USA 30%

5 LTE trials show progress in both emerging and developed regions LATAM 3% NA DVAP 3% 5% MENA 9% SSA 10% WE 20% CEE 26% EMAP 24% The largest number of LTE network trials are in Central and Eastern Europe (26), Emerging Asia Pacific (24) and Western Europe (20) regions. Trials in CEE and EMAP in particular are driven by the adoption of the technology by regional operators such as Bharti Airtel, China Mobile, Reliance Infotel and SoftBank. Infrastructure vendors including Huawei, Ericsson and NSN, Samsung and ZTE demonstrate network upgrade and transition options. 5 For further details see the Analysys Mason s Wireless networks tracker. Available at:

6 Today s FD-LTE deployments and planned networks will provide near-global coverage by Key FD-LTE planned network deployments or trials in progress FD-LTE operational network

7 7 LTE s spectrum fractionalisation: more myth than reality The market has focused on five bands for FD-LTE and four for TD-LTE. Devices are able to support about six bands, thus providing room to support both local bands as well as the more commonly used global bands. TD-LTE is rapidly appearing as an adjunct to FD-LTE networks using unpaired spectrum in the GHz range. Samsung s Galaxy S4 dual-mode LTE variants support both TD- and FD-LTE. FD LTE Number of networks Countries or regions (examples) South America, China, MENA Europe, South Korea, Australia, MENA Europe, Japan, South Korea, MENA Japan, USA, Australia AWS (1.7/2.1) 13 USA TD LTE Number of networks Dual TD-/FD-LTE networks

8 North America remains at odds with the rest of the world, and Africa is likely to join the APT700 plan The USA is the single-largest 700MHz market in the world, and is incompatible with most of the rest of the world, making it an LTE island. 8 Key APT700 Plan adopted APT700 Plan recommended NAM700 Plan adopted

9 9 Operators embracing LTE on a global scale LTE technology advances service options Key factors to consider for LTE network deployment Total cost of ownership analysis Conclusions

10 The LTE-A Releases will change the way operators use and manage spectrum for mobile services 10 LTE-A core features: Carrier Aggregation HetNet SON Release 10 initial LTE-A release (available in 2013) CA, Improved network performance and HetNets Release 11 (available 2014) Gigabit download speeds and improved automated management functions Release 12 (available about 2015) Improved operations benefits and technology upgrades

11 150Mbps LTE service is here, and 300Mbps mobile broadband is within sight 11 SK Telecom and LG Uplus launched LTE-A CA services in SK Telecom: largest commercial launch initiated with 150Mbps speeds and about subscribers at September 2013 Telstra: trialled 900MHz and 1800MHz in July 2013, but will use will use larger blocks of 700MHz and 1.8GHz spectrum to deliver 300Mbps download speeds for commercial launch in 2015 Philippines operator Smart Communications trials showing speeds of over 210Mbps. Country Operator Maximum download speeds (Mbps) Australia Telstra 300 (expected) Austria A1 Telekom Austria 580 (trial) China China Mobile 233 (TD-LTE) Japan DoCoMo 300 (expected) Philippines Smart 210 Portugal Optimus 300 Russia Yota 300 South Africa Telkom Mobile (8ta) South Korea Turkey USA SK Telecom LG Uplus Turkcell AT&T, T-Mobile, Verizon 210 (TD-LTE) (lab) (expected)

12 VoLTE has limited market penetration in 2013, hampered by slow network deployments, and technical concerns 12 Date Event Feb 2011 Verizon Wireless completes first VoLTE Call Aug 2012 SK Telecom deploys first HD VoLTE service LG Uplus launches VoLTE service Aug 2012 MetroPCS (US) launches limited VoLTE service Oct 2012 Korea Telecom launches VoLTE Apr 2013 EE (UK) announces network upgrades to provide support for new services, including VoLTE May 2013 Mobily (Saudi Arabia) completes VoLTE trials Jul 2013 Bharti Airtel (India) requests permission to trial VoLTE 1Q 2014 O2 Germany to demo VoLTE 4Q 2014 China Mobile to launch VoLTE

13 LTE is the optimal technology to combine the multiple spectrum positions many operators hold 45% of operators worldwide hold more than one spectrum band. 42% holding two or more LTE bands. They are planning multi-spectrum LTE networks, pairing coverage spectrum with capacity spectrum. TeliaSonera used 2.6GHz with laptop USB modems. It will add 800MHz as smartphone penetration increases. US networks launched in reverse AT&T and Verizon in the 800MHz band, but Verizon now holds AWS (1.7/2.1GHz) spectrum while AT&T also holds AWS as well as 2.3GHz spectrum. 16% 17% 9% 2% 1% 55% Number of spectrum bands per operator:

14 14 Operators embracing LTE on a global scale LTE technology advances service options Key factors to consider for LTE network deployment Total cost of ownership analysis Conclusions

15 When implementing an LTE network, mobile network operators have two key deployment strategy choices As demonstrated in the first part of the presentation, LTE is becoming the technology of choice to provide mobile broadband. Before deploying LTE, operators have to formulate a commercial and technical strategy that aims to maximise revenues and minimise costs as well as meeting subscribers performance expectations. Typically an established mobile operator has multiple access networks (for example, 2G and 3G) and needs to take a holistic view of its legacy multitechnology network to exploit all synergies to identify the optimum LTE deployment solution. There are two key network strategies to consider when introducing LTE: LTE overlay single radio access network (SRAN). 15

16 16.. LTE overlay or single RAN An LTE overlay requires deploying a separate LTE radio access network (RAN) in addition to any legacy 2G and 3G RAN and core networks. An SRAN strategy involves installing a single base station unit that provides both the functionality of a new LTE base station and replaces legacy 2G and 3G base stations. SRAN is rapidly becoming the norm for example, 51% of Vodafone s European sites have already been upgraded to SRAN (as of March 2013), increasing to 80% of the sites by Overlay LTE deployment GSM Base station Existing Single RAN deployment UMTS Node B New Single RAN Base station (GSM+UMTS+LTE) New LTE enodeb 1 XX Santander Banking & Markets TMT Conference, Anthony Hamilton, Madrid, June 2013.

17 Location update Building a profitable wireless network to deliver an exceptional customer experience LTE MNOs still require 2G/3G legacy networks to provide voice services The technology required to provide voice services for LTE subscribers is either voice over LTE (VoLTE) either native LTE voice or circuit-switched fallback (CSFB). VoLTE requires a VoLTE-capable IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS) and VoLTE terminals. VoLTE technology is not yet mature and only a few MNOs use it. CSFB uses established 2G and 3G networks to provide voice services. CSFB is a transitional solution that most operators adopt to use existing 2G/3G infrastructure. Circuit-switched fallback signal flow for voice HLR 5 4 MSC/VLR 3 MME RNC/BSC LTE network 6 7 2G/3G network 2 1 enodeb NodeB/ BTS Fallback to 2G/3G network

18 The life cycle of the 2G network plays an important part in determining the optimum LTE deployment strategy Many legacy 2G RANs are at end-of-life and vendors no longer support them commercially. Maintaining legacy a 2G RAN typically involves a tailored vendor maintenance contract, which can be very expensive. Operators typically hold spares stock for legacy 2G networks, but these become depleted over time. Additional spare parts are available on the grey market, but the quality and volumes cannot be assured. Reasons why 2G will still exist for several years Terminal is affordable Is well-suited to low-end users Is required to support roamers Is well-suited to M2M applications In Europe, the GSM switch-off will occur between 2019 and 2025, depending on country and operator strategy, for the reasons cited above. However, there is a requirement to extend the lifetime of 2G networks to provide voice service support for LTE networks. 18

19 Download peak rates (Mbps) Building a profitable wireless network to deliver an exceptional customer experience Re-farming 900MHz spectrum for 3G data coverage should also be considered for an LTE strategy 19 Main barriers to mobile broadband: availability of 3G network (HSDPA) prohibitive pricing. Re-farmed 900MHz spectrum can provide cost-effective ubiquitous 3G data coverage and a high penetration of 900MHz 3G terminals reduces customer take-up cost. Deploying a 900MHz 3G overlay network may not be commercially viable as the return on investment is uncertain. The network solution needs to be flexible to support multiple technologies. Evolution of HSDPA versus LTE speeds HSPDA LTE Peak cell rate: 200 HSDPA LTE

20 20 The benefits of LTE overlay versus SRAN are well documented, but there is little regarding cost implications Operational benefits LTE overlay Fast time to market Low network disruption Single RAN Single access network to manage Cell site simplification 2G and 3G life extended Technology flexibility Operational challenges Multiple access network to manage Single vendor dependence Significant implementation risk Cost benefits Lower capex? Lower opex? Analysys Mason has developed TCO models to quantify the capex and opex associated with each solution

21 21 Operators embracing LTE on a global scale LTE technology advances service options Key factors to consider for LTE network deployment Total cost of ownership analysis Conclusions

22 We consider three different scenarios to compare the TCO of LTE overlay vs Single RAN deployment A European incumbent fixed and mobile operator with significant 2G, 3G and fixed broadband coverage needed to understand the TCO associated with different LTE deployment strategies in order to make an informed investment decision. To compare the TCO associated with different LTE deployment strategies, we considered three different LTE deployment scenarios. 22 Description 2G 3G 2G/3G core Base case Overlay LTE Keep legacy 2G RAN Keep legacy 3G RAN Keep 2G/3G core Scenario 1 Overlay LTE and 2G refresh New 2G RAN Keep legacy 3G RAN Keep 2G/3G core Scenario 2 Single RAN New 2G New 3G New core

23 We analyse the capex and opex associated with both new LTE networks and existing 2G/3G networks 23 Capital expenditure RAN equipment (LTE, 2G, 3G) Core equipment Backhaul network Support services (such as installation, optimisation and so on) Cost of change (such as additional staff required for implementation of LTE) Operational expenditure Existing network vendor maintenance (2G, 3G) LTE network vendor maintenance Existing infrastructure running costs (such as power, site rental and operational personnel) Incremental infrastructure running costs (such as power, site rental and operational personnel) Other opex

24 Percentage of base case capex Building a profitable wireless network to deliver an exceptional customer experience 24 The capex associated with an SRAN is lower than an equivalent solution that requires a new 2G network Capex associated with: Capex comparison scenario 1 is 40% higher than the base case because of the refresh of the 2G RAN network. scenario 2 is 31% higher than the base case because of the refresh of 2G and 3G RANs as well as the replacement of 2G/3G core network. Deploying a 3G network using an SRAN solution is very cost effective. 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 7% 17% 21% 24% 11% 23% 28% 17% 23% 34% 29% 17% 13% 13% 9% 30% 28% 27% Installation and integration services associated with single RAN solution are less expensive than service associated with LTE overlay solution because less integration is required. 0% Base case: overlay LTE LTE RAN 3G RAN RAN services Scenario 1: overlay LTE and 2G RAN Scenario 2: SRAN 2G RAN Core network Core services Cost of change

25 Percentage of base case opex Building a profitable wireless network to deliver an exceptional customer experience however, the opex associated with SRAN is 32% lower than that associated with an overlay solution 1 25 Opex associated with scenario 2 is 32% lower than for scenario 1, and 28% lower than for the base case. Main opex savings are associated with vendor maintenance contracts. More cost-effective to have a single maintenance contract for an SRAN. SRAN removes the requirement for premium-priced legacy 2G and 3G maintenance contracts. Second opex saving: support staff. Fewer staff needed to operate and maintain an SRAN than individual 2G, 3G and LTE networks. 1 Assuming a refresh of the 2G network. 5-year opex comparison 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 23% 9% 16% 25% 10% 16% 52% 55% Base case: overlay LTE Vendor maintenance Power consumption Scenario 1: overlay LTE and 2G RAN 28% 32% Site rental 18% 5% 14% 34% Scenario 2: SRAN Support staff

26 Percentage of base case TCO Building a profitable wireless network to deliver an exceptional customer experience resulting in an SRAN TCO that is 21% lower than that of an equivalent overlay solution 1 TCO for scenario 2 is 21% lower than that for scenario 1, and 10% lower than base case. Opex savings offset additional capex required to deploy the new 2G and 3G networks over 5 years. Opex savings for the SRAN are mainly driven by: single rather than multiple maintenance contracts no need for premium-priced support of end-of-life equipment reduction in the number of support staff. 5-year TCO comparison 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 68% 32% Base case: overlay LTE 72% 49% 45% 41% Scenario 1: overlay LTE and 2G RAN 10% Scenario 2: SRAN 26 21% 1 Assuming a refresh of the 2G network. Capex Opex

27 27 Operators embracing LTE on a global scale LTE technology advances service options Key factors to consider for LTE network deployment Total cost of ownership analysis Conclusions

28 28 Conclusion An SRAN solution with full swap of 2G/3G RAN and core network attracted the lowest TCO for the considered mobile network operator. An SRAN provides the required flexibility regarding the network strategy, allowing the operator to defer its decision to switch off its 2G/3G network. However, for cost savings to materialise, SRAN solutions have to be implemented in a big bang approach, which can be challenging for operational teams. However, each operator will have a unique starting point and cost base that may dictate a different LTE strategy. AM specialises in LTE commercial and technical strategies and would be delighted to assist you identify the optimum LTE strategy for you

29 Uniquely positioned to offer consulting and research to telecoms, media and technology (TMT) sectors 29 CONSULTING Exclusive focus on the telecoms, media and technology (TMT) sectors Advising on investments, regulatory issues, spectrum acquisition and management, operational performance, business planning and strategy Rigorous methodologies developed over 25 years that deliver tangible results for clients around the world RESEARCH Analysis, tracking and forecasts of the different services accessed by consumers and enterprises, as well as the software, infrastructure and technology delivering those services Specialised and bespoke projects for clients undertaken by our Custom Research team

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