TECHNOLOGY. The Future of Consumer VoIP. Leveraging Internet advances for profitable consumer voice services. Report Price Publication date

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1 For a clearer market perspective The Future of Consumer VoIP Leveraging Internet advances for profitable consumer voice services Report Price Publication date 1495/ 2160/$2875 June 2010 TECHNOLOGY

2 About us Business Insights' portfolio of technology management reports is designed to help you make well informed and timely business decisions. We understand the problems facing today's technology executives when trying to drive your business forward, and appreciate the importance of accurate, up-to-date, incisive product, market and company analysis. Business Insights reports are authored by independent experts and contain findings acquired from dedicated primary research. Our authors' leading positions secure them access to interview key executives and to establish which issues will be of greatest strategic significance for the industry. Our technology portfolio of reports can be used across a wide range of business functions to assess market conditions and devise future strategies. The order form on the back of this brochure lists recent titles available from the categories of enterprise technology, consumer technology, and telecommunications. Report overview "It is important to distinguish between a profitable business that successfully sells VoIP services and a profitable VoIP business. Successful VoIP businesses are driven by other services the company offers, and by services that align with customers' perceived needs not by the VoIP business alone." Pages 156 Figures 34 Tables 17 Since the mid-1990s, telecom industry experts widely expected VoIP to change the dynamics of the voice communications business. But a decade later, the largest providers of consumer Internet voice services are, with one exception, conventional telecommunications companies. Some are pioneers and innovators, some are not. What they do share, however, is a market strategy that doesn't rely solely on price. This report provides an overview of the current state of the consumer VoIP market, examines VoIP business successes and failures, and explores how evolving IP communications mobility, convergence, femtocells, cloud computing, ultra-fast broadband, and open devices are opening new opportunities for selling consumer VoIP services to the world's nearly 7bn consumers. Since the mid-1990s Voice over IP (VoIP) has been called a disruptive technology. Yet, more than 15 years later, the largest providers of consumer VoIP services are, with one exception, conventional telecommunications companies. Over-the-top VoIP providers such as Vonage were not the players that disrupted the business of voice communications.

3 Key findings Revenue ($m) Revenue Y/Y growth User accounts (m) User account Y/Y growth The consumer VoIP market has evolved contrary to predictions of free phone calls. Marketing strategies based on cheap phone calls are shortsighted and, in the end, not very profitable. Network access and control, features and functionality, and incumbency are equally important in consumers choices. There are three areas of opportunity in consumer VoIP: delivering the physical connection, providing multiple and enhanced services, and leveraging new technology such as cloud computing to add more value to voice communications. The future of VoIP is mobile. As the capabilities of the mobile handset increase, forecasts show wired VoIP subscriptions declining, beginning around While both broadband Internet and mobile phone use is steadily growing in the world, the cost of overseas mobile calls remains high, pointing to continued opportunities targeting expatriates. Millions % 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% Figure 2.10: Skype revenue and user account growth, A software company that doesn't supply infrastructure, connections, or content, Luxembourg-based Skype is the over-the-top VoIP business exception that proves the rule. The company's desktop software client developed by the same software engineers that developed the Kazaa peer-to-peer file sharing application provides PC-to-PC VoIP calling to a largely consumer customer base. Skype is one of the world's single largest cross-border long distance telephone company carrying an estimated 8% to 12% of international long distance calls. Founded in 2003, Skype has grown its users and revenues every year as Figure 2.10 illustrates. Y/Y growth (%) Use this report to... Identify the most profitable services and packaging strategies. Understand market conditions in four key regions for VoIP development. Design market strategies with the right characteristics for success. Avoid money-losing strategies. Gain insight into which VoIP providers are proving successful, which are struggling, and why.

4 Explore issues including... Since the first hobbyists used the Internet to make voice calls in the mid-1990s, VoIP has been called a disruptive technology. Yet, more than 15 years later, the largest providers of consumer VoIP services are, with one exception, telecommunications companies. Over-the-top VoIP providers such as Vonage were not the players that disrupted the business of voice communications. The consumer VoIP market has evolved contrary to predictions of free phone calls. Marketing strategies based on cheap phone calls are short-sighted and, in the end, not very profitable. Network access and control, features and functionality, and incumbency are equally important in consumers choices. The biggest challenge for VoIP providers in China is the threat of government shutdowns, because of political unrest and swings in the application and interpretation of telecommunications regulations. Europe s highly regulated market has had the effect of forcing incumbent carriers to compete with new players or risk going out of business. This has led to a highly competitive market environment. Japanese consumers have a big appetite for technology and novelty and a high rate of mobile use. This opens opportunities for fixed-to-mobile replacement and converged services in the country. US broadband infrastructure is comparable with that of a developing country. Typical speeds for consumer broadband are 1 to 10 Mbps. Because of the size of the country, and the low density of population in many parts of it, affordable broadband isn't universally available in the US. Discover... What companies are the most profitable consumer VoIP providers and why? Which consumer VoIP providers are struggling? What are the conditions in the four key markets of China, Europe, Japan and the US? Who are the main VoIP providers, and what are the opportunities? How can providers leverage Internet evolution into specific services that consumers value? What are the challenges facing VoIP providers, and what are the strategies needed to meet them? How might Google's possible evolution into a telecom carrier affect the VoIP market? What are the key Internet trends that can be successfully leveraged to provide profitable voice services? Can pure-play VoIP be profitable?

5 Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY VoIP The disruption that didn't disrupt Consumer VoIP provider strategies The VoIP market in China The VoIP market in Europe The VoIP market in Japan The VoIP market in the US New VoIP opportunities in Internet advances Choosing a path to consumer VoIP business success CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION VOIP: THE DISRUPTION THAT DIDN T DISRUPT - Market disruption: more than technology change - Successful consumer VoIP businesses show opportunities - The future of consumer VoIP CHAPTER 2 CONSUMER VOIP PROVIDER STRATEGIES - Free phone calls do not generate profits Over-the-top consumer VoIP companies struggle for profitability - Vonage - Deltathree Mobile VoIP delivers similarly disappointing results - Vyke - Truphone - New players - Ooma The future of pureplay consumer VoIP - 8x8 Traditional telecoms companies - AT&T - Comcast Cable - SoftBank BB - France Telecom - Skype CHAPTER 3 THE VOIP MARKET IN CHINA - Technology outlook - Broadband penetration & growth - Fixed voice line decline Consumer voice providers, VoIP providers Market drivers, challenges, barriers, and cultural and social considerations - VoIP opportunities - Regulatory climate CHAPTER 4 THE VOIP MARKET IN EUROPE Technology outlook - Broadband penetration & growth - Fixed voice line decline - European telecommunications industry landscape VoIP providers - BT Group - Deutsche Telekom - Skype in Europe - France Telecom: lead change instead of following it - Iliad SA - OTE - TDC - European VoIP opportunities Regulatory climate - VoIP regulation CHAPTER 5 THE VOIP MARKET IN JAPAN Technology outlook - Broadband penetration and growth Consumer voice providers, VoIP providers - NTT - SoftBank - NTT affiliates - KDDI Cultural and social considerations - Opportunities - Challenges Regulatory climate

6 Table of Contents - VoIP regulation CHAPTER 6 THE VOIP MARKET IN THE US Technology outlook - Broadband penetration & growth Telecommunications industry landscape - Consumer voice providers, VoIP providers - Market drivers, challenges, barriers, and cultural and social considerations - Unique market opportunities Regulatory climate - A history of strategic deregulation - The debate over Internet regulation - VoIP regulation CHAPTER 7 NEW VOIP OPPORTUNITIES IN INTERNET ADVANCES The network: the essential enabling infrastructure - Bundling is a natural evolution for network operators - Video services drive successful bundling strategies, and three is the best number - The challenge with bundling: profitability - Network openness is another avenue to success - Google validates the importance of the underlying network - Google's history as Internet and VoIP provider - With the exception of Skype, Internet companies have not been successful with voice - Just saying you're a consumer services provider doesn't make you one - The size of Google's opportunity depends on who the competition is Femtocells: enabling infrastructure for extending mobile phone into the home - Femtocells enable more mobile phone calls not just indoor mobile phone calls - Simplicity is key for femtocells - Incentives for adoption Capabilities: 21st century VoIP is mobile - The obvious short-term opportunity: cheap mobile VoIP calling - The long-term opportunities: fixed-mobile convergence, new mobile services with integrated voice Capabilities: Convergence fights eroding profitability with added value and convenience - Opportunities through convergence - Challenges: market education, business alignment, and ease-of-use Capabilities: Cloud telephony enables advanced functionality at basic prices - The personal PBX - Cloud telephony challenges: price, differentiation, and establishing the value proposition Capabilities: Intelligent voice changes the focus from how much it costs to how much it does - Delivery: Apps that go beyond simple voice integration - Delivery: Open handset platforms offer the opportunity for competitively-priced special-purpose appliances - Opportunities in medical applications - Hiding in plain sight: reinventing the home phone - Specialized device and app challenges: price, channel conflict, usability and security - The future: KDDI s Polaris life device CHAPTER 8 CHOOSING A PATH TO CONSUMER VOIP BUSINESS SUCCESS Paths to success Three building blocks for business models - Company examples - Consumer VoIP service examples CHAPTER 9 APPENDIX Bibliography Index LIST OF FIGURES Vonage financial performance ($m), Vonage Q ARPU, marketing costs and new subscribers Over-the-top VoIP companies revenue and losses (latest available, $m) 8x8 financial performance ($m),

7 Table of Contents AT&T U-verse TV and voice subscriber growth, AT&T U-verse subscriber bundle uptake, 2009 Comcast and Vonage VoIP customers (000s), Comcast digital voice subscriber growth, France Telecom service take-up (%), Skype revenue and user account growth, Consumer mobile and fixed lines in China (m), Consumer VoIP users and revenues in China, Chinese telecom services pricing and regulation Broadband subscribers in Europe (m), Consumer mobile and fixed lines in Europe (m), Consumer VoIP subscribers and revenues in Europe, Iliad subscribers and ARPU, Iliad revenue, profits and margin change, TDC customer segmentation by service (%) VoIP and mobile broadband subscriptions in Japan (m), Japan VoIP service market share for key operators (%) SoftBank consolidated business profitability, US consumer Internet subscribers (m), Consumer VoIP subscribers and revenues in the US, US handset-based VoIP market share for key operators (%) TV companies lead in triple play ARPU Global femtocell access points and users (m), The business case for femtocells SoftBank revenue, the impact of free DSL modems and VoIP service Global VoIP and mobile broadband subscriptions (m), Changing communications preferences for year olds, Building blocks for Consumer VoIP business models - summary Building blocks for Consumer VoIP business models company examples Building blocks for Consumer VoIP services Over-the-top VoIP companies revenue and losses (latest available, $m) 8x8 financial performance ($m), AT&T U-verse TV and voice subscriber growth, AT&T U-verse subscriber bundle uptake, 2009 Comcast and Vonage VoIP customers (000s), Comcast digital voice subscriber growth, France Telecom service take-up (%), Skype revenue and user account growth, Consumer mobile and fixed lines in China (m), Consumer VoIP users and revenues in China, Consumer fixed VoIP subscribers (m) in selected European countries, Iliad subscribers and ARPU, Iliad revenue, profits and margin change, SoftBank consolidated business profitability, Percentage of consumers that are interested in services targeted to their special interests LIST OF TABLES Vonage financial performance ($m), Vonage Q ARPU, marketing costs and new subscribers

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