Building a profitable wireless network to deliver an exceptional customer experience

Transcription

1 APAC Telecoms Summit 2014: Enabling innovation, driving profitability Building a profitable wireless network to deliver an exceptional customer experience 14 January 2013 Chris Nicoll, Principal Analyst, Wireless Networks EVENT PARTNERS:

2 2 Operators are embracing LTE on a global scale LTE technology advances service options Key factors to consider for LTE network deployment Total cost of ownership analysis Conclusions

3 LTE is spreading around the world, thanks to flexible spectrum utilisation, and mobile broadband services There were more than 200 million LTE connections worldwide, accounting for just 3% of mobile connections, by the end of Total LTE connections will reach 1.5 billion by Emerging Asia Pacific is set to become the dominant world LTE market, with its 420 million connections accounting for 27% of LTE connections worldwide by Only 11% of that region s connections will have migrated to LTE, so there will still be considerable untapped potential for further take-up of LTE in that region. Australia 2.1% Nordics 2.4% Japan 12.7% South Korea 21.5% Germany 2.0% UAE 0.1% 2013 Saudi Arabia 0.4% Italy 0.2% USA 57.6% Russia 1.0% 3

4 LTE is spreading around the world, thanks to flexible spectrum utilisation, and mobile broadband services 4 There were more than 200 million LTE connections worldwide, accounting for just 3% of mobile connections, by the end of Total LTE connections will reach 1.5 billion by Emerging Asia Pacific is set to become the dominant world LTE market, with its 420 million connections accounting for 27% of LTE connections worldwide by Only 11% of that region s connections will have migrated to LTE, so there will still be considerable untapped potential for further take-up of LTE in that region. South Korea 5% France 5% Russia 5% Germany 5% India 5% UK 5% Japan 12% Brazil 4% 2018 China 24% USA 30%

5 LTE trials show progress in both emerging and developed regions LATAM 3% NA DVAP 3% 5% MENA 9% SSA 10% WE 20% CEE 26% EMAP 24% CEE = Central and Eastern Europe; DVAP = Developing Asia Pacific; EMAP = Emerging Asia Pacific; LATAM = Latin America; MENA = Middle East and North Africa; NA = North America; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa; WE = Western Europe. The largest number of LTE network trials are in Central and Eastern Europe (26), Emerging Asia Pacific (24) and Western Europe (20). Trials in CEE and EMAP in particular are driven by the adoption of the technology by regional operators such as Bharti Airtel, China Mobile, Reliance Infotel and SoftBank. Infrastructure vendors including Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia Solutions and Networks (NSN), Samsung and ZTE demonstrate network upgrade and transition options. For further details see Analysys Mason s Wireless networks tracker. Available at: 5

6 Today s FD-LTE deployments and planned networks will provide near-global coverage by Key FD-LTE planned network deployments or trials in progress FD-LTE operational network

7 North America remains at odds with the rest of the world, and Africa is likely to join the APT700 plan The USA is the single-largest 700MHz market in the world, and is incompatible with most of the rest of the world, making it an LTE island. 7 Key APT700 Plan adopted APT700 Plan recommended NAM700 Plan adopted

9 The LTE-A Releases will change the way operators use and manage spectrum for mobile services 9 LTE-A core features: Carrier aggregation HetNet SON Release 10 initial LTE-A release (available in 2013) CA, improved network performance and HetNets Release 11 (available 2014) Gigabit download speeds and improved automated management functions Release 12 (available about 2015) Improved operations benefits and technology upgrades

10 150Mbps LTE service is here, and 300Mbps mobile broadband is within sight 10 SK Telecom and LG Uplus launched LTE-A CA services in SK Telecom: largest commercial launch initiated with 150Mbps speeds and about subscribers at September Telstra: trialled 900MHz and 1800MHz in July 2013, but will use larger blocks of 700MHz and 1.8GHz spectrum to deliver 300Mbps download speeds for commercial launch in Philippines operator Smart Communications trials showing speeds of more than 210Mbps. Country Operator Maximum download speeds (Mbps) Australia Telstra 300 Australia Optus 160 (TD-LTE trial) Austria A1 Telekom Austria 580 (trial) China China Mobile 223 (TD-LTE) Japan DoCoMo 300 (expected) Philippines Smart 210 Portugal Optimus 300 Russia Yota 300 South Africa South Korea Telkom Mobile (8ta) LG Uplus KT SK Telecom 210 (TD-LTE) (Demo)

11 150Mbps LTE service is here, and 300Mbps mobile broadband is within sight 11 Vodafone Spain s recent LTE-A trials in Madrid showed sustained speeds of more than 280Mbps and top speeds of 297Mbps. China Mobile and ZTE have successfully tested carrier aggregation and clocked a maximum download speed of 223Mbps on the Chinese operator s TD-LTE network. Hong Kong mobile operator CSL demonstrated its LTE-A service in September Australia s Optus tested CA on its TD-LTE and achieved a single user peak speed of more than 160Mbps. Country Operator Maximum download speeds (Mbps) France SFR 174 (trial) Germany Telefónica 225 (trial) Germany Vodafone 225 (trial) Hong Kong CSL 300 (trial) Spain Vodafone 297 (trial) Turkey Turkcell 900 (lab) 150 UK EE 300 (trial) USA AT&T, T-Mobile, Verizon 150 (expected)

12 12 Highlights of the South Korean LTE deployments Technical progression Coverage LTE bandwidth Enhanced services Operators have quickly innovated and upgraded to new technologies such as multi carrier, carrier aggregation and wideband LTE-A. Recently SK Telecom demonstrated LTE-A carrier aggregation offering speeds up to 225Mbps. All operators provide nearly 100% LTE coverage. LG Uplus provided nationwide network coverage in March 2012, followed by SK Telecom in June LG Uplus has the largest total LTE spectrum bandwidth of 80MHz compared to SK Telecom s 55MHz and KT s 65MHz. However, SK Telecom and KT have the 1.8GHz Golden spectrum. Korean operators are frontrunners in VoLTE commercialisation. They are now focussing on offering IP services such as RCS, HD video and HQ mobile IPTV. Operators SK Telecom KT LTE commercial launch LTE spectrum July MHz (20MHz) 1.8GHz (35MHz) January GHz (35MHz) 900MHz (20MHz) 800MHz (10MHz) LG Uplus July MHz (20MHz) 2.1GHz (20MHz) 2.6GHz (40MHz)

13 1Q Q Q Q Q Q Q 2013 Subscribers (million) Building a profitable wireless network to deliver an exceptional customer experience South Korean operators have pioneered the deployment of fully enabled VoLTE networks The world s first voice over LTE (VoLTE) services were commercially launched in South Korea (SK Telecom & LG Uplus) and the USA (MetroPCS) in August KT followed soon after by launching HD Voice (VoLTE) in October At launch, SK Telecom and LG Uplus charged the same rate for VoLTE calls as 3G voice calls. VoLTE adoption is expected to increase sharply as more compatible handsets are launched in the market. VoLTE greatly improves voice quality and can be combined with RCS features such as in-call content sharing. South Korea LTE subscribers South Korea LTE subscribers 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 1Q Q Q Q Q Q Q SK Telecom KT LG Uplus SK Telecom KT LG Uplus

14 Richer voice experience and other benefits offered by VoLTE can help operators combat the OTT voice threat The performance of VoLTE exceeds OTT voice (such as Skype and Kakao Talk) on various key parameters. VoLTE allows operators to provide a richer voice experience by supporting the RCS multimedia portfolio; offering file sharing, multimedia messaging, video share and buddy lists. HD voice provided by VoLTE offers improved voice quality; encouraging consumers to talk longer and potentially reducing churn. OTT VOIP not only generates a greater load on the operator s network, but also a higher signalling load on users smartphones. Comparison parameters Voice call quality Call setup time Handover performance Battery life Smartphone signalling load Network load Voice call functions VoLTE OTT voice VoLTE provides a higher spectral efficiency to the operators and makes it possible to handle twice as many calls. It also frees up more capacity for data. 14

16 When implementing an LTE network, mobile network operators have two key deployment strategy choices As demonstrated in the first part of the presentation, LTE is becoming the technology of choice to provide mobile broadband. Before deploying LTE, operators have to formulate a commercial and technical strategy that aims to maximise revenue and minimise costs as well as meeting subscribers performance expectations. Typically an established mobile operator has multiple access networks (for example, 2G and 3G) and needs to take a holistic view of its legacy multitechnology network to exploit all synergies to identify the optimum LTE deployment solution. Operators have two key network strategies to consider when introducing LTE: LTE overlay single radio access network (SRAN). 16

17 17... LTE overlay or single RAN An LTE overlay requires deploying a separate LTE radio access network (RAN) in addition to any legacy 2G and 3G RAN and core networks. An SRAN strategy involves installing a single base station unit that provides both the functionality of a new LTE base station and replaces legacy 2G and 3G base stations. SRAN is rapidly becoming the norm for example, 51% of Vodafone s European sites have already been upgraded to SRAN (as of March 2013), increasing to 80% of the sites by Overlay LTE deployment GSM Base station Existing Single RAN deployment UMTS Node B New Single RAN Base station (GSM+UMTS+LTE) New LTE enodeb 1 XX Santander Banking & Markets TMT Conference, Anthony Hamilton, Madrid, June 2013.

18 The life cycle of the 2G network plays an important part in determining the optimum LTE deployment strategy 18 Many legacy 2G RANs are at end-of-life and vendors no longer support them commercially. Maintaining a legacy 2G RAN involves a tailored vendor maintenance contract, which can be very expensive. Operators typically hold spares stock for legacy 2G networks, but these become depleted over time. Additional spare parts are available on the grey market, but the quality and volumes cannot be assured. Reasons why 2G will still exist for several years Terminal is affordable Is well-suited to voice services Is well-suited to low-end users Is required to support roamers Is well-suited to M2M applications In Europe, the GSM switch-off will occur between 2019 and 2025, depending on country and operator strategy, for the reasons cited above. However, there is a requirement to extend the lifetime of 2G networks to provide voice service support for LTE networks.

19 19 The benefits of LTE overlay versus SRAN are well documented, but there is little regarding cost implications Operational benefits LTE overlay Fast time to market Low network disruption Single RAN Single access network to manage Cell site simplification 2G and 3G life extended Technology flexibility Operational challenges Multiple access network to manage Single vendor dependence Significant implementation risk Cost benefits Lower capex? Lower opex? Analysys Mason has developed TCO models to quantify the capex and opex associated with each solution.

21 We consider three different scenarios to compare the TCO of LTE overlay versus single RAN deployment A European incumbent fixed and mobile operator with significant 2G, 3G and fixed broadband coverage needed to understand the total cost of ownership (TCO) associated with different LTE deployment strategies in order to make an informed investment decision. To compare the TCO associated with different LTE deployment strategies, we considered three different LTE deployment scenarios. Description 2G 3G 2G/3G core 21 Base case Overlay LTE Keep legacy 2G RAN Keep legacy 3G RAN Keep 2G/3G core Scenario 1 Overlay LTE and 2G refresh New 2G RAN Keep legacy 3G RAN Keep 2G/3G core Scenario 2 Single RAN New 2G New 3G New core

22 We analyse the capex and opex associated with both new LTE networks and existing 2G/3G networks 22 Capital expenditure RAN equipment (LTE, 2G, 3G) Core equipment Backhaul network Support services (such as installation, optimisation and so on) Cost of change (such as additional staff required for implementation of LTE) Operational expenditure Existing network vendor maintenance (2G, 3G) LTE network vendor maintenance Existing infrastructure running costs (such as power, site rental and operational personnel) Incremental infrastructure running costs (such as power, site rental and operational personnel) Other opex

23 Percentage of base case capex Building a profitable wireless network to deliver an exceptional customer experience 23 The capex associated with an SRAN is lower than an equivalent solution that requires a new 2G network Capex associated with: Capex comparison scenario 1 is 40% higher than the base case because of the refresh of the 2G RAN network. scenario 2 is 31% higher than the base case because of the refresh of 2G and 3G RANs as well as the replacement of 2G/3G core network. Deploying a 3G network using an SRAN solution is very cost effective. 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 7% 17% 21% 24% 11% 23% 28% 17% 23% 34% 29% 17% 13% 13% 9% 30% 28% 27% Installation and integration services associated with a single RAN solution are less expensive than service associated with LTE overlay solution because less integration is required. 0% Base case: overlay LTE LTE RAN 3G RAN RAN services Scenario 1: overlay LTE and 2G RAN Scenario 2: SRAN 2G RAN Core network Core services Cost of change

24 Percentage of base case opex Building a profitable wireless network to deliver an exceptional customer experience however, the opex associated with SRAN is 32% lower than that associated with an overlay solution 1 24 Opex associated with scenario 2 is 32% lower than for scenario 1, and 28% lower than for the base case. Main opex savings are associated with vendor maintenance contracts. More cost-effective to have a single maintenance contract for an SRAN. SRAN removes the requirement for premium-priced legacy 2G and 3G maintenance contracts. Second opex saving: support staff. Fewer staff needed to operate and maintain an SRAN than individual 2G, 3G and LTE networks. 1 Assuming a refresh of the 2G network. 5-year opex comparison 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 23% 9% 16% 25% 10% 16% 52% 55% Base case: overlay LTE Vendor maintenance Power consumption Scenario 1: overlay LTE and 2G RAN 28% 32% Site rental 18% 5% 14% 34% Scenario 2: SRAN Support staff

25 Percentage of base case TCO Building a profitable wireless network to deliver an exceptional customer experience resulting in an SRAN TCO that is 21% lower than that of an equivalent overlay solution 1 TCO for scenario 2 is 21% lower than that for scenario 1, and 10% lower than the base case. Opex savings offset additional capex required to deploy the new 2G and 3G networks over 5 years. Opex savings for the SRAN are mainly driven by: single rather than multiple maintenance contracts no need for premium-priced support of end-of-life equipment reduction in the number of support staff. 5-year TCO comparison 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 68% 32% Base case: overlay LTE 72% 49% 45% 41% Scenario 1: overlay LTE and 2G RAN 10% Scenario 2: SRAN 25 21% 1 Assuming a refresh of the 2G network. Capex Opex

27 27 Conclusion The regional influence on the LTE ecosystem will change during the next 5 years as Emerging Asia Pacific countries build their LTE networks. LTE is the technology of choice for multi-spectrum networks. VoLTE will continue to lag during the next 5 years, making LTE a technology suitable primarily for delivering data service. In terms of deployment strategy, SRAN solutions attract the lowest TCO compared with LTE overlay networks for the considered case study. However, for cost savings to materialise, SRAN solutions have to be implemented in a big bang approach, which can be challenging for operational teams. Each operator will have a unique starting point in terms of market conditions and cost base that may dictate a different LTE strategy.

28 28 Contact details Chris Nicoll Head, Networks Research Principal Analyst, Wireless Networks Franck Chevalier Manager, Consulting Boston Tel: Fax: Cambridge Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) Dubai Tel: +971 (0) Fax: +971 (0) Dublin Tel: +353 (0) Fax: +353 (0) Madrid Tel: Fax: Manchester Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) Milan Tel: Fax: New Delhi Tel: Johannesburg Tel: Fax: Paris Tel: +33 (0) Fax: +33 (0) London Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) Singapore Tel: Fax: