THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S.

Transcription

1 THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distributio Date: 9/6/2012 GAIN Report Number: BR 0819 Brazil Livestock ad Products Aual Aual Livestock Report 2012 Approved By: Robert Hoff, Agricultural Couselor Prepared By: Joao F. Silva, Agricultural Specialist Report Highlights: Post forecasts beef ad pork productio to icrease by over two percet i 2013 supported mostly by strog iteratioal demad. The devaluatio of the Brazilia currecy i 2012 will improve the competitiveess of Brazilia product i overseas markets, but sluggish domestic demad will moderate cosumptio. I additio, cosumptio of aimal protei i Brazil is facig a ew costrait that combies higher retail prices of meats due to higher costs of productio ad high idebtedess of Brazilia cosumers. As show by recet data, debt paymets eat up over 46 percet of the household icome i Brazil. Page 1

2 Executive Summary: Post forecasts beef ad pork productio to icrease by over two percet i I recet years, i geeral, domestic demad for both meats supported the expasio i beef ad pork productio i Brazil. However, trade sources believe that a icrease i productio ext year will come from iteratioal as opposed to domestic demad. of aimal protei i Brazil is facig a ew costrait that combies higher retail prices of meats due to higher costs of productio ad high idebtedess of Brazilia cosumers. As show by recet data, debt paymets eat up over 46 percet of the household icome i Brazil. Commodities: Aimal Numbers, Cattle Productio: Post forecasts a icrease of three percet i cattle ivetories i 2013, mostly due to govermet fiacial support for cattle herd rebuildig, geetic improvemets, upgrades i pasture lad, ad sustaied cattle prices. Thus, cattle ivetories are expected to reach early 210 millio head by the ed of the year. The recetly aouced Crop ad Livestock Pla for the marketig year (Oct 1, September 30, 2013) provides a total of R$ billio (US$ 58 billio), at subsidized iterest rates allocated for commercial ad export-orieted agriculture, icludig R$ 750,000 (US$ 375,000), per cattle producer for pasture reovatio ad herd rebuildig through geetic improvemet. The program requires a five-year paymet with a18 moth grace period. I additio, large beef packers are also icreasig fiacig for their cattle suppliers, similar to the fiacig available for the chicke ad pork productio itegratio system. I additio, cattle producers ca beefit from the Low Carbo Agriculture Program (ABC), with a subsidized iterest rate of 5.5 percet per year, to implemet the itegratio of crop-livestock-forest program (ilpf). Although i its iitial stage, this program offers a sustaiable opportuity for reovatio of poor pastures i Brazil, estimated at 90 millio hectares, with a sigificat log term impact o beef productio. Trade: Page 2

3 Post forecasts a icrease of 20 percet i cattle exports durig 2013 due mostly to higher exports to Veezuela ad competitive cattle prices from Brazil. The Brazilia Meat Packig Idustry officially submitted to the federal govermet o Jauary 31, 2012, a request for a 30 percet export tax o live cattle exports, but the govermet has ot take a decisio o this issue. Productio, Supply ad Demad Data Statistics: Aimal Numbers, Cattle - Brazil Market Year Begi: Ja Market Year Begi: Ja 2011 Market Year Begi: Ja New Post New Post New Post Official Official Official Total Cattle Beg. Stks 190, , , , ,717 (1000 HEAD) Dairy Cows Beg. Stocks 38,185 38,185 39,510 39,510 40,695 (1000 HEAD) Beef Cows Beg. Stocks 53,458 53,458 55,230 55,230 56,890 (1000 HEAD) Productio (Calf Crop) 49,445 49,445 49,690 49,690 50,185 (1000 HEAD) Total Imports (1000 HEAD) Total Supply 240, , , , ,904 (1000 HEAD) Total Exports (1000 HEAD) Cow Slaughter 10,750 10,750 10,750 10,750 10,780 (1000 HEAD) Calf Slaughter (1000 HEAD) Other Slaughter 28,050 28,050 28,735 28,735 29,302 (1000 HEAD) Total Slaughter 39,100 39,100 39,785 39,785 40,382 (1000 HEAD) Loss 3,320 3,320 3,250 3,250 3,220 (1000 HEAD) Edig Ivetories 197, , , , ,712 (1000 HEAD) Total Distributio 240, , , , ,904 (1000 HEAD) CY Imp. from U.S (1000 HEAD) CY. Exp. to U.S (1000 HEAD) Balace (1000 HEAD) Ivetory Balace 6,625 6,625 6,170 6,167 5,995 (1000 HEAD) Ivetory Chage (PERCENT) Cow Chage (PERCENT) Productio Chage (PERCENT) Productio to Cows (PERCENT) Slaughter to Ivetory (PERCENT) Slaughter to Total Supply (PERCENT) TS=TD Commets AGR Number Commets To Post Commodities: Page 3

4 Meat, Beef ad Veal Productio: Post forecasts that beef productio will icrease 2.5 percet i 2013 due mostly to iteratioal demad ad a small icrease i domestic demad. The devaluatio of the Brazilia currecy combied with higher cattle supplies is likely to maitai Brazilia beef at competitive prices i world markets i Profit margis for processors are forecast to improve due to higher availability of cattle supplies ad improved competitiveess of Brazilia meat overseas due to the devaluatio of the Brazilia currecy by over 10 percet i Trade: Post projects a icrease of beef exports of eight percet or more i 2013, as Brazilia beef exporters are optimistic about recoverig exports to the Russia Federatio, despite the slow re-listig process of Brazilia plats. Post also aticipates shipmets to other markets such as Egypt, Chia, Chile, Cuba, Iraq, ad Morocco. Despite the fiacial crisis i the Europea Uio (EU), exporters also expect to icrease exports to that market because more Brazilia cattle farms are erolled i the EU s traceability program due to the flexibility i the Normative Istructio # 61 allowed by the Europea Uio. I additio, Post also expects a cotiued recovery i processed beef exports to the Uited States. Trade sources also posit that the devaluatio of the Brazilia currecy ad stable cattle prices due to higher supplies of aimals for slaughter will improve the competitiveess of Brazilia beef overseas. Note: Differeces betwee export data reported by Brazilia trade sources ad those used by Post are due to the use of differet coversio factors. Brazilia sources use a 2.5 percet factor for coversio of processed beef ito Carcass Weight Equivalet (, while post uses The same applies for boeless beef, as Post uses 1.40 as the coversio factor, while Brazilia trade sources use I additio, ad as per FAS reportig istructios, variety meats (beef offals), HTS 0206 are ot icluded for reportig purposes i our PSD ad Trade Matrix tables. Page 4

5 Policy: Accordig to trade sources, officials from the Russia Federatio are threateig to ba imports of Brazilia meat exports due to the use of Ractopamie. However, Brazilia officials have ot received ay official ote from the govermet of the Russia Federatio cocerig this possibility. Also, the EU is threateig to restrict Brazilia meat exports due to the approval by the Brazilia govermet of zilparetol ad ractopamie. The GOB is elaboratig a segregatio pla to preset to the EU officials. I the meatime, the GOB has etered ito a agreemet with the two U.S. compaies producig those additives to refrai from sellig these products i the Brazilia market util the pla is executed. Page 5

6 Productio, Supply ad Demad Data Statistics: Meat, Beef ad Veal Brazil Market Year Begi: Ja 2011 Market Year Begi: Ja 2012 Market Year Begi: Ja 2013 Official New Post Official New Post Officia New Post l Slaughter 39,100 39,100 39,785 39,785 40,382 (1000 HEAD) (Referece) Begiig Stocks Productio 9,030 9,030 9,210 9,210 9,440 (1000 MT Total Imports (1000 MT Total Supply 9,070 9,070 9,270 9,270 9,500 (1000 MT Total Exports 1,340 1,340 1,350 1,394 1,520 (1000 MT Huma Dom. 7,730 7,730 7,920 7,876 7,980 (1000 MT Other Use, Losses Total Dom. 7,730 7,730 7,920 7,876 7,980 (1000 MT Edig Stocks Total Distributio 9,070 9,070 9,270 9,270 9,500 (1000 MT CY Imp. from U.S. CY. Exp. to U.S (1000 MT Balace Ivetory Balace Weights (1000 MT Productio (PERCENT) Chage Import (PERCENT) Chage Export (PERCENT) Chage (PERCENT) Chage Imports Percet (PERCENT) Exports Percet Productio (PERCENT) Populatio 203,429,77 203,429,77 205,716,89 205,716,89 207,964,53 (PEOPLE) Per Capita (KG) Page 6

7 TS=TD Commets AGR Number Commets To Post Page 7

8 Brazil Commodity Meat, Beef ad Veal Time Period Ja-Ju Uits: Metric Tos Imports for: U.S. 0 U.S. 0 Others Others Argetia 3,341 3,437 Paraguay 4,310 8,290 Uruguay 5,719 5,979 Australia Total for Others 13,927 18,534 Others ot Listed 4 99 Grad Total 13,931 18,633 HTS: 0201,0202,021020, Quatity i Product Weight Equivalet (PWE) Updated August 15, 2012 Page 8

9 Export Trade Matrix Coutry: Brazil Commodity: Meat, Beef Time Period Ja-Ju Uits: Metric Tos U.S. 3,045 U.S. 8,610 Others Others Agola 6,140 6,211 Algeria 3,572 5,690 Caada 1,373 1,262 Chile 8,637 29,555 Egypt 35,253 51,680 Europea Uio 47,470 47,765 Hog Kog 28,959 42,916 Ira 75,821 8,601 Iraq 2,380 3,056 Israel 11,362 7,140 Lebao 7,589 6,388 Libya 3,442 9,054 Japa 1, Jorda 4,059 5,708 Phillippies 4,623 2,268 Russia 143, ,717 Saudi Arabia 17,400 19,770 Sigapore 3,698 2,479 Ukraie 1,466 1,752 UEA 4,468 4,693 Veezuela 26,562 41,664 Total for Others 439, ,863 Others ot Listed 18,634 23,524 Grad Total 460, ,997 HTS:0201,0202,021020, Quatity i Product Weight Equivalet (PWE) Updated August 15, 2012 Page 9

10 Commodities: Meat, Swie Productio: Post forecasts pig productio to icrease by oe percet i 2013 supported mostly by iteratioal demad. Post s forecast reflects curret cocers of swie producers with the ucertaities regardig the higher feed costs. Despite the govermet programs of subsidized cor sales, idepedet producers are expected to suffer most from the icrease i their cost of productio. Swie producers i the most importat producig areas have asked ad received from state govermets a exemptio o the state sales tax o eergy as a meas to alleviate their curret problems derived from the icrease i productio costs. Swie producers also have requested ad obtaied from the govermet a exteded grace period for their debts from productio credit loas durig 2011/2012. Commodities: Meat, Pork Productio Post forecasts pork productio i 2013 to icrease by early two percet. This forecast reflects the curret optimism of the pork idustry with a cotiued recovery i export markets. However, a major factor of cocer for hog producers is the recet icrease i feed prices, mostly cor-based feed. Accordig to the associatio of pork producers the icrease i cor prices could squeeze their margis, although the GOB has already iterveed i the market with subsidized cor auctios to protect the idustry, has exteded deadlies for credit paymets, ad has temporarily suspeded state taxes. Trade: Post forecasts pork exports to icrease by seve percet or more i Post s forecast reflects curret optimism of Brazilia exporters with the devaluatio of the Brazilia currecy ad firm demad from major importers, mostly Hog Kog, Ukraie, Agola, Argetia ad Sigapore. Brazilia pork exporters are also strategically focused o two ew markets: Chia ad Japa. The first pork shipmets to Chia occurred i Jauary 2012 ad totaled 52 metric tos. Trade sources believe that exports to Chia will oly be sigificat i Page 10

11 Pork exports to Japa. After five years, o August 27, 2012 the Miistry of Agriculture, Fisheries ad Forestry of Japa cocluded the risk aalysis for Brazilia pork imports from the state of Sata Cataria. The two coutries still eed to egotiate the requiremets for the iteratioal health certificate (CSI, i Portuguese) ad plat approvals. Japaese officials believe that withi 60 days the process could be completed, but Brazilia trade sources believe that the process will ot be completed util early ext year. I fact, oly i late November will a team from Japa visit the state of Sata Cataria. The curret forecast for pork exports to Japa after the fial approval of all requiremets varies from 10 to 15 percet of Japa imports estimated at 1.2 millio metric tos, or 120,000 to 180,000 metric tos of Brazilia pork per year. However, more realistic estimates by some trade sources cocluded that i 2013 Brazil could export two to three percet to Japa (betwee 24,000 ad 36,000 metric tos) ad i the ear future, could icrease exports to te percet (120,000 metric tos). Page 11

12 Productio, Supply ad Demad Data Statistics: Aimal Numbers, Swie - Brazil Market Year Begi: Ja 2011 Market Year Begi: Ja 2012 Market Year Begi: Ja 2013 Official New Post Official New Post Official New Post Total Begiig Stocks 36,652 36,652 38,336 38,336 39,276 (1000 HEAD) Sow Begiig Stocks 2,925 2,925 2,900 2,920 2,915 (1000 HEAD) Productio (Pig Crop) 37,750 37,750 37,700 37,700 38,080 (1000 HEAD) Total Imports (1000 HEAD) Total Supply 74,404 74,404 76,037 76,037 77,357 (1000 HEAD) Total Exports (1000 HEAD) Sow Slaughter (1000 HEAD) Other Slaughter 34,767 34,767 35,686 35,410 36,660 (1000 HEAD) Total Slaughter 34,862 34,862 35,806 35,560 36,810 (1000 HEAD) Loss 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 (1000 HEAD) Edig Ivetories 38,336 38,336 39,023 39,276 39,346 (1000 HEAD) Total Distributio 74,404 74,404 76,037 76,037 77,357 (1000 HEAD) CY Imp. from U.S (1000 HEAD) CY. Exp. to U.S (1000 HEAD) Balace (1000 HEAD) Ivetory Balace 1,684 1, (1000 HEAD) Ivetory Chage (PERCENT) Sow Chage (PERCENT) Productio Chage (PERCENT) Productio to Sows (PERCENT) Slaughter to Ivetory (PERCENT) Slaughter to Total Supply (PERCENT) TS=TD Commets AGR Number Commets To Post Page 12

13 Productio, Supply ad Demad Data Statistics: Meat, Swie Brazil Market Year Begi: Ja 2011 Market Year Begi: Ja 2012 Market Year Begi: Ja 2013 Official New Post Official New Post Officia New Post l Slaughter 34,862 34,862 35,806 35,560 36,810 (1000 HEAD) (Referece) Begiig Stocks Productio 3,227 3,227 3,311 3,260 3,330 (1000 MT Total Imports (1000 MT Total Supply 3,228 3,228 3,312 3,261 3,331 (1000 MT Total Exports (1000 MT Huma Dom. 2,644 2,644 2,697 2,658 2,686 (1000 MT Other Use, Losses Total Dom. 2,644 2,644 2,697 2,658 2,686 (1000 MT Edig Stocks Total Distributio 3,228 3,228 3,312 3,261 3,331 (1000 MT CY Imp. from U.S (1000 MT CY. Exp. to U.S. Balace Ivetory Balace Weights (1000 MT Productio (PERCENT) Chage Import (PERCENT) Chage Export (PERCENT) Chage (PERCENT) Chage Imports Percet (PERCENT) Exports Percet Productio (PERCENT) Populatio 203,429,77 203,429,77 205,716,89 205,716,89 207,964,53 (PEOPLE) Per Capita (KG) TS=TD Page 13

14 Commets AGR Number Commets To Post Page 14

15 Export Trade Matrix Coutry Brazil Commodity Meat, Swie Time Period Ja-Ju Uits: Metric Tos Exports for: U.S. 0 U.S. 0 Others Others Albaia 4,210 1,761 Agola 13,172 13,836 Argetia 17,454 5,909 Armeia 2,033 3,495 Azerbaija 1,821 1,190 Chia 0 1,481 Chile 1,875 1,751 Ecuador 1,701 1,338 Europea Uio 0 0 Georgia 2,473 4,478 Kazakhsta Haiti 1,704 2,235 Hog Kog 35,238 43,158 Moldova 723 1,008 Paraguay Russia 107,174 55,380 Sigapore 12,939 13,394 South Africa UAE 3,010 2,798 Ukraie 17,846 64,131 Uruguay 6,464 10,527 Veezuela 0 0 Total for Others 231, ,091 Others ot Listed 3,816 3,765 Grad Total 234, ,856 HTS: ,020312,020319,020321,020322,020329, ad ,021012,021019,160241,160242, Quatity i Product Weight Equivalet (PWE) Updated August 15, 2012 Page 15