Inbound Tourism Trends Quarterly. Issue 18 August 2016

Transcription

1 Inbound Tourism Trends Quarterly Issue 18 August 216 1

2 Contents 1. About this data 2. Global Context: Global view, Economic outlook and Exchange rate 3. Inbound Volume and Value 4. Journey Purpose, Connectivity and UK Area visited: Rolling twelve months and most recent full year volume and value, trended 5. Individual Markets: Rolling twelve months and most recent full year volume and value, trended 6. Definitions and more information 2

3 About this data This quarterly update presents the latest quarterly International Passenger Survey (IPS) data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The next Quarterly Release (April June 216) will be in October 216. This will provide data on visits by markets and UK region visited up to Q The Annual Release for 216, which will contain some revisions to the quarterly data, will be in May 217. The Inbound research & insights section of the VisitBritain website has much more detail on long term trends, visits from individual markets and to UK regions. All figures are provisional and subject to revision by the ONS. All figures quoted are not seasonally adjusted. Numbers in some tables / charts may not sum due to rounding. The data is based on interviews with a sample of departing visitors. The number interviewed varies but is typically 9,-12, per quarter. 3

4 Global context These slides put the UK s performance in the context of global tourism trends, the economic outlook and the exchange rate. Footer 4

5 Global view According to the UNWTO there were billion international tourism trips during 215, 4.6% up on the year before. In 215, the Americas saw the strongest growth, up 5.9% on 214, followed closely by Asia Pacific up 5.6%. All continents outside of Africa and Middle East have seen growth of at least 4% in arrivals. UNWTO forecasts that international tourist arrivals will increase globally by 3.5%- 4.5% in 216. For January April 216, international tourism arrivals are up 5.3% year on year. to the EU are up 6.4%. Continents International tourist arrivals to region 215 (millions) % Growth World 1, % Europe % Asia Pacific % Americas % Africa % Middle East % 5

6 Economic outlook The Bank of England have sharply downgraded their forecasts for the UK economy since the referendum although the domestic outlook is still highly uncertain. European markets are generally growing at a moderate pace similar to that seen in 215. Some of the strongest performers last year are seeing slightly lower growth this year. The United States economy is forecast to grow at a slower rate of 1.8% this year, down from 2.4% in 215. China and India are still growing at a rapid pace although the Brazilian and Russian economies are set to contract again. At time of writing the price of oil stands at $49/barrel, a recovery from around $4 at the start of August but still far lower than the $11 price seen in summer 213. The last 2 years have seen the price of oil fall by more than half. Passengers are seeing the benefit of reduced fuel costs and, in most markets, are also enjoying the wider boost to disposable incomes that comes from low inflation. GDP growth Australia 2.5% 2.6% 2.9% Canada 1.2% 1.7% 2.2% France 1.2% 1.4% 1.5% Germany 1.4% 1.6% 1.7% Ireland 7.8% 5.% 3.4% Italy.6% 1.% 1.4% Netherlands 2.% 1.7% 2.1% Poland 3.6% 3.% 3.5% Spain 3.2% 2.8% 2.3% Sweden 3.8% 3.4% 2.8% Switzerland.9% 1.2% 1.7% UK 2.3% 1.7% 2.% USA 2.4% 1.8% 2.2% Brazil -3.9% -4.3% -1.7% China 6.9% 6.5% 6.2% India 7.4% 7.4% 7.5% Russia -3.7% -1.7%.5% World 3.% 3.% 3.3% Source: OECD (June 216) 6

7 Aug-1 Aug-2 Aug-3 Aug-4 Aug-5 Aug-6 Aug-7 Aug-8 Aug-9 Aug-1 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Exchange rate Post the EU referendum, the Pound has fallen sharply and as of late August was 16% down year-on-year against the US dollar at $1.31, the lowest figure since the 198s. The Pound was also down 15% against the Euro, at 1.17, a low point last seen at the end of 213. In July 216, the Pound was 17% down against the Australian dollar, 14% down against the Canadian dollar, 15% down against the Swedish Krona and 12% against the Norwegian Krone. Purchasing power in the UK from visitors in these markets has therefore increased. ing by inbound tourists to the UK was down in Q1 216, whilst visits increased, so the depreciation of the GBP may help to balance this out and encourage a growth in spending Value of US dollar and Euro against pound. Monthly averages to August 25 th. Euro US dollar Source: Bank of England 7

8 and value trends by journey purpose, region visited and transport mode The next series of charts track progress in visits to the UK for different journey purposes, to different regions of the UK and using different modes of transport to get to the UK. Footer 8

9 Mar-96 Mar-97 Mar-98 Mar-99 Mar- Mar-1 Mar-2 Mar-3 Mar-4 Mar-5 Mar-6 Mar-7 Mar-8 Mar-9 Mar-1 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Inbound volume In Q1 216, arrivals were estimated to be 8% up compared to the same period in set a new record for inbound visits, at 36.1 million, up 5% on 214 and well above the previous highs in 27. The latest provisional data for April-June shows a decline in visits numbers vs. the same period in 215, although the year to date is still higher for the first half of 216 vs the first half of , Inbound visits 35, 3, Growth 25, Q ,484 8% 2, 15, 1, 5, Q2 216 (provisional data) Rolling year (Jul 15 Jun 16) 9,82-2% 36,115 5% 36,49 4% 9

10 Jun-96 Jun-97 Jun-98 Jun-99 Jun- Jun-1 Jun-2 Jun-3 Jun-4 Jun-5 Jun-6 Jun-7 Jun-8 Jun-9 Jun-1 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Inbound value (Adjusted for inflation based on June 216 price level) Q1 216 spending has slowed slightly and is 2% down year-on-year in nominal terms. The general trend since the start of 215 has been one of growth in visits but no growth in spending. The latest provisional data for April-June shows a decline in spending of 6% vs. the same period in 215. On a rolling twelve month basis, 21.7bn has been spent by overseas visitors to Britain. This is 2% down and has plateaued after sharply increasing towards the end of 212 and early 213. Inbound spend ( m) 24, 22, Total Total (adjusted for inflation) ( m) Nominal terms Growth 2, 18, Q ,712-2% 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, Q2 216 (provisional data) Rolling year (Jul 15 Jun 16) 5,48-6% 22,72 1% 21,65-2% 1

11 Q3 28 Q4 28 Q1 29 Q2 29 Q3 29 Q4 29 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 211 Q2 211 Q3 211 Q4 211 Q1 212 Q2 212 Q3 212 Q4 212 Q1 213 Q2 213 Q3 213 Q4 213 Q1 214 Q2 214 Q3 214 Q4 214 Q1 215 Q2 215 Q3 215 Q4 215 Q1 216 Journey Purpose trends % change in visits 215 v 214 Holiday visits continue to increase steadily, and 215 saw an increase of 2% compared to the year before. The latest 12 month period, up to Q1 216, saw the highest number of holiday visits on record at 13,998,. The latest month, however, saw visits down 8% on June the year before. to friends and family (VFR) is the next biggest journey purpose after holiday, and visit numbers were up 7% in 215, and the latest quarter set a new 12 month record at 1.73 million. VFR visits increased 9% YoY in the latest June figures. Business visits were up 7% in 215, however have decreased slightly in the latest quarter, and spending is also down. 2% 7% 7% 6% % change in spend 215 v 214-2% 7% 4% -6% Holiday Business VFR Misc Inbound visits by journey purpose, rolling year ending Rolling 12 months (Apr 15 Mar 16) Holiday 13,857 8,511 13,998 8,57 Business 8,865 5,43 8,962 5,251 VFR 1,451 4,796 1,739 4,915 Misc. 2,943 3,241 2,951 3,287 11

12 Q1 28 Q3 28 Q1 29 Q3 29 Q1 21 Q3 21 Q1 211 Q3 211 Q1 212 Q3 212 Q1 213 Q3 213 Q1 214 Q3 214 Q1 215 Q3 215 Q1 216 Transport mode % change in visits 215 v 214 Travel to the UK via air continues to increase each quarter, and the most recent 12 month period set a new record at million visits arriving using this method. arriving via the Tunnel or Sea also continue to increase, sea arrivals peaked at the end of 215, at 5.24 million and 6% up on 214. There are slightly fewer visits arriving via the tunnel than by sea, and this peaked at the end of Q1 216 at 4.75 million visits, a new record. 5% 3% 6% % change in spend 215 v 214 1% 2% -3% Air Tunnel Sea 3, 25, Inbound visits by mode of transport, rolling year ending Rolling 12 months (Apr 15 Mar 16) 2, 15, 1, 5, Air 26,252 18,662 26,71 18,62 Tunnel 4,625 1,72 4,745 1,721 Sea 5,239 1,69 5,195 1,667 12

13 Area visited Rolling 12 months (Apr 15 Mar 16) 4, 35, 3, 25, Most regions of the UK experienced a positive growth in visits and spend in 215, and this has continued into the first quarter of 216. Scotland and Yorkshire saw decreases in visits and spend last year. Scotland recovered with a strong Q1 216, visits up 27% on Q1 215, and spend up 9%. Yorkshire also saw an increase in visits in the first quarter of this year, up 4%. London continues to see strong growth year on year, and the Rest of England reassuringly following suit. Inbound visits by area visited, rolling 12 months Q2 215 Q3 215 Q Q1 216 Total UK 36,65 21,859 Scotland 2,679 1,79 Wales London 18,835 12,8 Rest of England 15,429 7,332 North East North West 2,676 1,159 Yorkshire 1, West Midlands 2, East Midlands 1, East of England 2, South West 2,441 1,68 South East 5,171 2,234 2, 15, 1, 5, Total UK Scotland Wales London Rest of England North East North West Yorkshire West Midlands East Midlands East of England South West South East 13

14 and value trends by source market The next series of charts track progress in visits to the UK from different countries around the world. Footer Friday, August 26, 14

15 Latest data: selected markets Most markets experienced growth in visits in Q1 216, compared to Q1 the year before, with the exception of Canada, France and Norway. USA: visits grew 9% to 542,, the strongest Q1 since 28. China: visits are stable, up 1% on Q1 215 at 41,. France: Q1 visits from the UK s largest market by volume are down by 9% to 93,. Germany: visits were up 24%, to 62, which is the strongest Q1 since 27. Australia: visits were up 1% to 157,, the strongest Q1 since 28 Canada: Q1 visits are down 8% to 98,. Irish Republic: visits increased from the Irish Republic in Q1, an increase of 6% in visits to 619, which represents the strongest Q1 since 29. Spain: a new Q1 record has been set for Spain, with 548, visits this year, up 12% on last year. Poland: visit numbers were up 27% to a record 497,. India: visitor levels were flat at 49,. UAE: visit numbers from the United Arab Emirates were up 15% to 77,, the strongest Q1 on record for this market. Q1 216 Growth Australia 157 1% Belgium 199 2% Canada 98-8% China* 41 1% Denmark 164 3% France 93-9% Germany 62 24% India 49 % Irish Republic 619 6% Italy 377 2% Netherlands % Norway 173-3% Poland % Spain % Sweden 165 9% Switzerland 177 9% United Arab Emirates 77 15% USA 542 9% *Base size less than n=1 15

16 Q1 28 Q3 28 Q1 29 Q3 29 Q1 21 Q3 21 Q1 211 Q3 211 Q1 212 Q3 212 Q1 213 Q3 213 Q1 214 Q3 214 Q1 215 Q3 215 Q1 216 North West Europe Our closest neighbours in North West Europe provide some of our highest levels of visits to the UK. from France peaked in early 214, and have since plateaued slightly following this, but still remaining about the 4 million mark and our biggest market by volume. from Irish Republic continue to gradually recover following economic difficulties in 213, and are gradually growing quarter on quarter. After a slight decrease in 215, this year s figures so far for the Netherlands show a healthy increase. Belgium shows recovery in Q1 following reduced visit levels in 214. % change in visits 215 v 214 5% 1% 6% -4% % change in spend 215 v 214 8% 4% 7% -4% Belgium France Irish Rep Netherlands 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Inbound visits from NW Europe markets, latest rolling 12 months total Rolling 12 months (Apr 15 Mar 16) Belgium 1, , France 4,171 1,493 4,84 1,431 Irish Republic 2, , Netherlands 1, ,

17 Q1 28 Q3 28 Q1 29 Q3 29 Q1 21 Q3 21 Q1 211 Q3 211 Q1 212 Q3 212 Q1 213 Q3 213 Q1 214 Q3 214 Q1 215 Q3 215 Q1 216 Central Europe Germany continues to be a steady market with visits increasing gradually to the highest 12 month period since the recession in Q1 216, at 3.36 million visits. from Switzerland were up in 215 compared to 214 and the UK experienced a strong Q1 216, which meant that the 12 month period was a record for this market at 886, visits. and spend from Austria were up 5% last year, and the 12 month rolling visits are close to breaking the 3, mark, which has not happened since mid 29. % change in visits 215 v 214 5% 1% 1% % change in spend 215 v 214 5% -7% 6% Austria Germany Switzerland 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Inbound visits from Central Europe markets, latest rolling 12 months total Rolling 12 months (Apr 15 Mar 16) Austria Germany 3,249 1,378 3,366 1,424 Switzerland

18 Q1 28 Q3 28 Q1 29 Q3 29 Q1 21 Q3 21 Q1 211 Q3 211 Q1 212 Q3 212 Q1 213 Q3 213 Q1 214 Q3 214 Q1 215 Q3 215 Q1 216 Southern Europe Visit numbers from Spain have increased sharply over the last two years, and continue to grow, as their economy continues to recover. Visit numbers are currently just short of the record high in Q1 28. from Italy are also noticeably higher than a few years ago and even taking into account a small dip in the last quarter, and are just short of the record set in Q from Greece have fallen back after growth in early 215. Portugal set a record for the highest number of visits in 12 months, in the rolling year to Q1 216, at 417, visits. % change in visits 215 v 214-6% 2% -1% 11% % change in spend 215 v 214 9% -3% 3% -8% Greece Italy Portugal Spain 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Inbound visits from Southern Europe markets, latest rolling 12 months total Rolling 12 months (Apr 15 Mar 16) Greece Italy 1, , Portugal Spain 2, ,255 1,25 18

19 Q1 28 Q3 28 Q1 29 Q3 29 Q1 21 Q3 21 Q1 211 Q3 211 Q1 212 Q3 212 Q1 213 Q3 213 Q1 214 Q3 214 Q1 215 Q3 215 Q1 216 Nordics % change in visits 215 v 214 Denmark is now at an all-time high for the 12 months to March 216 at 793, visits, surpassing the previous record from the end of 213. has also increased for this market throughout 215, leaving the market up 21% on 214. Finland, the smallest of the Nordic countries in terms of UK visits, has seen a levelling off of growth in the last 2 quarters. Norway s visits and spend both decreased in 215, versus 214, and the rolling 12 months average to Q1 216 are back to those seen in early 213. After a slight decline during 215, Sweden recovered during the first quarter, back close to the highs seen in % -4% -12% -2% % change in spend 215 v % 6% -22% 1% Denmark Finland Norway Sweden 1, Inbound visits from Nordic markets, latest rolling 12 months total Rolling 12 months (Apr 15 Mar 16) Denmark Finland Norway Sweden

20 Q1 28 Q3 28 Q1 29 Q3 29 Q1 21 Q3 21 Q1 211 Q3 211 Q1 212 Q3 212 Q1 213 Q3 213 Q1 214 Q3 214 Q1 215 Q3 215 Q1 216 Eastern Europe Amongst the Eastern European markets, visits from Poland stand out as having seen consistent growth and providing a high volume of inbound visits to the UK. The UK welcomed a record number of visits from Romania in Q1, as well as significant growth in 215 from this market. The Czech Republic continues to be a growing market, with visits up 32% year-on-year, and visits getting even closer to the 5, mark. Meanwhile Russia and Hungary see a downward trend following weaker Q4 and Q1. % change in visits 215 v % 1% 14% 47% -34% % change in spend 215 v % -5% 27% 16% -52% Czech Rep Hungary Poland Romania Russia 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Inbound visits from Eastern Europe markets, latest rolling 12 months total Rolling 12 months (Apr 15 Mar 16) Czech Rep Hungary Poland 1, , Romania Russia

21 Q1 28 Q3 28 Q1 29 Q3 29 Q1 21 Q3 21 Q1 211 Q3 211 Q1 212 Q3 212 Q1 213 Q3 213 Q1 214 Q3 214 Q1 215 Q3 215 Q1 216 English-speaking long-haul The USA, as one of the UK s biggest inbound markets continues to grow with visits consistently over the 3 million mark, and getting closer to the previous highs pre-recession. from New Zealand are increasing gradually quarterly and have recovered back to numbers last seen in Q2 28. Australia visits dropped slightly towards the end of last year, but have since started to recover but are yet to tip back over the 1.1 million mark. Canada visits dropped throughout 214, but have since started to make a gradual recovery. % change in visits 215 v 214-1% 9% 6% 1% % change in spend 215 v 214-9% 7% 9% 2% Australia Canada New Zealand USA 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Inbound visits from English-speaking long-haul markets, latest rolling 12 months total Rolling 12 months (Apr 15 Mar 16) Australia 143 1, ,154 Canada New Zealand USA 3,266 3,1 3,39 2,999 21

22 Q1 28 Q3 28 Q1 29 Q3 29 Q1 21 Q3 21 Q1 211 Q3 211 Q1 212 Q3 212 Q1 213 Q3 213 Q1 214 Q3 214 Q1 215 Q3 215 Q1 216 Advanced Asia % change in visits 215 v 214 Japan continues to decline quarter on quarter, and remains close to its low in Q1 216 at 195,. Singapore, South Korea and Hong Kong have seen increased visit numbers over the last few years, with Singapore experiencing a record number of visits at 213, at the end of Q from South Korea reached a peak at the end of 215. Whilst a smaller market for inbound tourism, Taiwan continues to grow and hit a new record for a four quarter period at 56, visits at the end of Q % 8% Hong Kong -12% 16% 11% 15% % change in spend 215 v 214-5% 14% -3% 42% Japan Singapore S. Korea Taiwan 35 3 Inbound visits from Advanced Asia markets, latest rolling 12 months total Rolling 12 months (Apr 15 Mar 16) 25 Hong Kong Japan Singapore South Korea Taiwan* *Sample size less than n=1 22

23 Q1 28 Q3 28 Q1 29 Q3 29 Q1 21 Q3 21 Q1 211 Q3 211 Q1 212 Q3 212 Q1 213 Q3 213 Q1 214 Q3 214 Q1 215 Q3 215 Q1 216 Emerging Asia % change in visits 215 v 214 from China continue to grow, with a new record 12 month period at the end of 215, which was sustained in Q1 215, at 27,. India continues to generate high volumes of visits, and numbers have remained stable near record highs for the past year. Visit numbers from Malaysia peaked in 215, up 12% on 214, and up 31% for spending. Thailand is a smaller inbound market, and visit numbers are high in the 12 months to Q1 216, just shy of the record in Q % 46% 4% 8% % change in spend 215 v % 18% 16% -2% Malaysia China Thailand India Inbound visits from Emerging Asia markets, latest rolling 12 months total Rolling 12 months (Apr 15 Mar 16) Malaysia China Thailand India

24 Q1 28 Q3 28 Q1 29 Q3 29 Q1 21 Q3 21 Q1 211 Q3 211 Q1 212 Q3 212 Q1 213 Q3 213 Q1 214 Q3 214 Q1 215 Q3 215 Q1 216 The Gulf UAE set a record for inbound visits in the 12 months to March 216, at 357,. UAE also experienced large growth in 215, up 34% on the previous year. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have both experienced growth in 215, following declines in 214. Qatar continues to increase steadily, up 28% in 215, and remaining stable in 216 so far. Oman and Bahrain are both smaller markets for visits. Oman has remained fairly stable for visits, whilst Bahrain saw a drop-off last year compared to 214. % change in visits 215 v % 3% 23% 28% % change in spend 215 v % -31% 71% 25% Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar 2% 34% 52% 12% Saudi Arabia UAE 4 35 Inbound visits from Gulf markets, latest rolling 12 months total Rolling 12 months (Apr 15 Mar 16) Bahrain* Kuwait Oman* Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE *Sample size less than n=1 24

25 Q1 28 Q3 28 Q1 29 Q3 29 Q1 21 Q3 21 Q1 211 Q3 211 Q1 212 Q3 212 Q1 213 Q3 213 Q1 214 Q3 214 Q1 215 Q3 215 Q1 216 Rest of Middle East & Africa Nigeria has experienced a decline in recent years, down 5% since 214, and this year hit the lowest number of visits in recent years. South Africa experienced an increase in visits in 215, up 7%, however figures dropped off slightly in the early part of this year. Israel also experienced growth last year, up 11% on 214, and hit a record number of visits in 215 at 25,. After peaking in 214, visits from Egypt are decreasing, down 19% in 215. Visit numbers from Turkey remain stable after a small decrease late in 215. % change in visits 215 v % 11% -5% 7% -2% % change in spend 215 v % 131% -7% 7% % Egypt Israel Nigeria S. Africa Turkey 35 3 Inbound visits from Advanced Asia markets, latest rolling 12 months total Rolling 12 months (Apr 15 Mar 16) 25 Egypt* Israel Nigeria South Africa Turkey *Sample size less than n=1 25

26 Q1 28 Q3 28 Q1 29 Q3 29 Q1 21 Q3 21 Q1 211 Q3 211 Q1 212 Q3 212 Q1 213 Q3 213 Q1 214 Q3 214 Q1 215 Q3 215 Q1 216 Latin America % change in visits 215 v 214 Brazil continues to be the lead market for visits to the UK in Latin America, and experienced a 1% growth in 215, and set a new 12 month record in 215. Argentina and Mexico, though smaller inbound markets for the UK, also experienced growth in 215 for both visits and spend, with Argentina setting a visit record of 129,. All three markets experienced a decrease in Q1 216, meaning that 216 looks less promising than the well-performing % 1% 11% % change in spend 215 v 214 2% 1% 7% Argentina Brazil Mexico 35 3 Inbound visits from Latin American markets, latest rolling 12 months total Rolling 12 months (Apr 15 Mar 16) Argentina Brazil Mexico

27 Definitions & Learn more It is possible to find much more detail about all of VisitBritain s priority markets, including the latest quarterly data from the International Passenger Survey, by exploring the Insights & Statistics pages of our website. In addition to being able to manipulate data through a series of visualisations our Market and Trade Profiles provide a comprehensive summary of each market including trends, attitudes and characteristics. The data source for all charts and tables is the International Passenger Survey, conducted by the Office for National Statistics. Definitions VFR - Visiting Friends and Relatives Miscellaneous visits - includes those for short term study, to attend sports events, for personal shopping, health or religious purposes, accompanying others and many more Visit - all departing visits from overseas residents (including those who may be UK nationals but live elsewhere, excluding other nationals who have been in the UK for 12 months or longer) - the amount visitors report spending in the UK during their stay 27

28 Inbound Tourism Trends Quarterly August 216 Footer Friday, August 26, 28