Kenora & Rainy River Districts Labour Market Status, Data and Analysis

Transcription

1 & Rainy River s Labour Market Status, Data and Analysis Release Date November 2008 Prepared by: 26 Canterbury Crescent, North Bay, ON P1C 1K Toll free: Prepared for: Northwest Training & Adjustment Board

2 NTAB Northwest Training and Adjustment Board The Northwest Training and Adjustment Board is a community directed, non-profit corporation leading Ontario s Northwest in workforce development and planning. Operating as part of the Local Boards Network of Ontario, NTAB is one of 25 local boards mandated through the Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities to conduct and disseminate local labour market research and engage community stakeholders in a planning process that supports local solutions for local workforce issues. Join our Consultations The goal of the community consultations is to capture local input. NTAB wants to hear from job seekers, employees, employers, unions and other key stakeholders about what they believe is working in Ontario s Northwest and what is not. Ultimately, we want to know what you think would support a strong local labour market, and the planning necessary to achieve it. This Package To introduce our local labour market issues and stimulate discussion during consultations on the labour force, this pre-consultation package has been created to highlight some labourmarket trends and includes selected local labour market data. Numbers provide a partial perspective details about workforce challenges and opportunities must come from the community. Labour Force Trends Small jobs gains in Ontario Northwest from 2001 to 2006 Both districts collectively 795 job gains + 2.3% Ontario 318,135 job gains + 6.1% Significant employment changes in industries (2001 to 2006) Rainy River Health care/social services 595 job gains Health care/social services 215 job gains Mining/gas extraction 330 job gains Public administration 155 job gains Retail trade 285 job gains Education 120 job gains Education 245 job gains Accommod/food services 115 job gains Manufacturing 610 job losses Manufacturing 300 job losses Accommodation/food services 320 job losses Retail trade 215 job losses Compared to Ontario, the region has a high concentration of employment in: Agriculture, forestry, fishing, hunting Accommodation and food services Mining Public administration Utilities Construction (Rainy River only) Educational services Transportation ( only) Health care and social assistance Precision Management and EDP Consulting: / Rainy River Labour Market 1

3 A Closer Look at the Trends Some Growth in, Slight Growth in Rainy River The tables on the following pages indicate employment changes from 2001 to 2006 for Ontario and the and Rainy River s. From this, note the number of jobs at fixed places of employment in the in 2006 was 26,095, which is a growth of 2.8 percent from 2001 (an increase of 715 jobs.) The number of jobs at fixed places of employment in the Rainy River in 2006 was 8,680. This is an increase of 80 jobs from 2001 a low growth of 0.9 percent compared to 6.1 percent growth provincially. The number of employed people in the s labour force in 2006 was 28,595, while the total labour force (employed plus unemployed) was 31,340. Accordingly, the s unemployment rate was 8.8 percent, favourable compared to Northern Ontario s 8.4 percent, although not as strong as 6.4 percent for Ontario overall. The number of employed people in the Rainy River s labour force in 2006 was 10,075, while the total labour force (employed plus unemployed) was 10,935. The unemployment rate in Rainy River was 7.9 percent, better than Northern Ontario but a bit higher than for Ontario overall. Industry Shifts While there has been moderate growth in the districts, there have been interesting sectoral shifts in employment from 2001 to 2006: Within both districts, significant increases occurred in health care and social assistance services and educational services employment. Within the, the number of jobs in these sectors increased by 595 (17.1 percent) and 245 (12.2 percent) respectively. Within the Rainy River, the number of jobs in these sectors increased by 215 (18.9 percent) and 120 (18.0 percent) respectively. A significant increase of 155 jobs (23.8 percent) also occurred in public administration in the Rainy River. A significant increase occurred in mining and oil and gas extraction in the : 330 jobs (35.7 percent) while a loss occurred in agriculture, forestry, hunting and fishing: 175 jobs (18.1 percent.) While employment in retail trade increased in the by 285 jobs (8.5 percent,) it decreased in the Rainy River by 235 jobs (19.1 percent.) While employment in accommodations and food in the decreased by 320 jobs (11.0 percent), it increased in the Rainy River by 115 jobs (15.6 percent.) In both districts, the biggest job loss was within manufacturing, decreasing by 610 jobs (22.4 percent decline) in and 300 jobs (18.8 percent) in Rainy River. This percentage loss is higher than 9.2 percent for the province. Precision Management and EDP Consulting: / Rainy River Labour Market 2

4 Examining numbers versus percentages can sometimes offer different insight. For example, a small loss of 10 jobs in management indicates a very high percentage loss of 100 percent. Accordingly, we have highlighted any change over 100 in jobs in each industry in the table below and indicate job changes in order from absolute highest growth to absolute highest loss in the. Industry Sectors Employment Change from 2001 to 2006 ON Jobs Growth % Growth R.R.D. jobs 2006 Rainy R. D. Growth % Growth jobs 2006 Growth % Growth Total N. Amer. Industry Classification , % 8, % 26, % 62 Health care and social assistance 71, % 1, % 4, % 21 Mining and oil and gas extraction 3, % % 1, % Retail trade 34, % % 3, % 61 Educational services 47, % % 2, % 81 Other services (except public administration) 22, % % 1, % 22 Utilities 1, % % % Transportation and warehousing 12, % % 1, % 91 Public administration 39, % % 2, % 54 Professional, scientific and technical services 34, % % % 51 Information and cultural industries % % % 41 Wholesale trade 22, % % % 53 Real estate and rental and leasing 14, % % % 52 Finance and insurance 21, % % % 55 Management of companies and enterprises % % Arts, entertainment and recreation 14, % % % 56 Admin./support/waste management/remediation 35, % % % 23 Construction 13, % % % 11 Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting -10, % % % 72 Accommodation and food services 22, % % 2, % Manufacturing -83, % 1, % 2, % Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 and 2006 Census of Population Precision Management and EDP Consulting: / Rainy River Labour Market 3

5 Our Strong Industries Good possible candidates for further employment growth and economic and workforce development opportunities are industry sectors with large employment numbers, especially if they have grown over the last number of years. Additionally, if these same sectors have higher percentage concentrations of employment than the province overall, these sectors may have a competitive advantage in the area. To identify which sectors are over or under represented relative to the province, the calculation of location quotients is used. The provincial number for each sector has a location quotient of one (1). A district location quotient higher than one (1) indicates higher employment concentration in that sector than the province, while less than one (1) indicates the concentration is lower. The tables below indicate which industries in the districts may have a strength or competitive advantage in attracting and retaining businesses, based on location quotients and employment. N. Amer. Industry Classification Industry Concentrations % Location Quotient What it Means Mining, oil gas extraction 1, % has almost 12 and a half times Ontario employment % Public administration has more than one and half times Ontario 2, % 1.86 employment % Agriculture, forestry, has more than one and a half times Ontario fishing & hunting % 1.69 employment % Health care and social assistance 4, % 1.54 has more than one and a half times Ontario employment % and is s largest industry employer Accommodation/ food services 2, % 1.50 has one and a half times Ontario employment % Transportation and warehousing 1, % 1.26 has almost one and a third times Ontario employment % Educational services has almost one and a quarter times Ontario 2, % 1.24 employment % N. Amer. Industry Classification Rainy River Industry Concentrations % Location Quotient What it Means Agriculture, forestry, fishing & hunting % 2.83 has almost three times Ontario employment % Public administration % 1.55 has more than nine times Ontario employment % Health care and social assistance 1, % 1.54 has more than 15 and a half times Ontario employment % and is s largest industry employer Accommodation/ food services % 1.48 has almost one and a half times Ontario employment % Educational services has almost one and a third times Ontario % 1.30 employment % Construction has over one and a quarter times Ontario % 1.26 employment % Sector employment concentrations vary between the two districts: mining is concentrated in the, while construction is moderately more concentrated in the Rainy River. This may represent areas for future growth in these areas; however, a further drilldown and analysis is required at the sub-sector level before this can be ascertained. Precision Management and EDP Consulting: / Rainy River Labour Market 4

6 The table below indicates the industries, from highest to lowest employment concentrations, and compares them to the Rainy River and Ontario. Sectors with relatively high employment concentrations relative to the province are highlighted in orange. Employment at Places of Work by Sector 2006 Ontario Employees % Rainy River Employees % LQ * Employees % LQ * Industry Sectors Total N. Amer. Industry Classification ,570,870 8,680 26, Mining & oil & gas extraction 21, % % , % Public administration 333, % % , % Agriculture, forestry, fishing & hunting 99, % % % Health care & social assistance 563, % 1, % , % Accommodation & food services 367, % % , % Utilities 43, % % % Transportation & warehousing 225, % % , % Educational services 388, % % , % Retail trade 656, % % , % Construction 176, % % % Other services (except public administration) 265, % % , % Arts, entertainment & recreation 117, % % % Manufacturing 826, % 1, % , % Real estate & rental & leasing 114, % % % Finance & insurance 300, % % % Administrative & support, waste management & remediation services 219, % % % Professional, scientific & technical services 416, % % % Information & cultural industries 152, % % % Wholesale trade 273, % % % Management of companies & enterprises 7, % 0 0.0% % 0.28 Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census of Population * LQ = Location Quotient Precision Management and EDP Consulting: / Rainy River Labour Market 5

7 Change in Employers by Size 2003 to 2007 The number of employers, the size of employers, and changes over time affect employment levels and opportunities within a local labour market. The majority of businesses in the Northwest Training and Adjustment Board area are small as indicated on the following chart. Employer Change by Size from 2003 to 2007 Employers by Employee Size Total in 2003 in 2007 Net Change in 2003 in 2007 Net Change 1,453 1, , ,604 3, ,598 1, Source: Canadian Business Patterns, Dec The data is based on payroll remittances and may not include local businesses whose payrolls are issued outside the region. Based on this data, there was an overall net loss of 273 employers in and a net loss of 200 in Rainy River, primarily small ones, from 2003 to Note that this data is based on payroll remittances and may not include local business whose payrolls are issued outside the region. Based on this source, there have been shifts in employment when one considers that there has been a net gain of 715 jobs in and a net gain of 80 jobs in Rainy River from 2001 to Nonetheless, this loss of employers is a trend that should be monitored. Another note of caution is that over counting can occur in the category of zero employees because some self-employed individuals are counted more than once when they own more than one registered company. Note that almost half of the employers in the district have zero employees. Precision Management and EDP Consulting: / Rainy River Labour Market 6

8 Labour Force by Occupation 2001 to 2006 While growing industries need additional workers, the demand for specific occupations is a function of the work that needs to be done. Both the changing marketplace and the advance of technology alter the demand for occupations, with some occupations growing strongly and others declining. National Occupation Classification Occupation Change 2001 to 2006 In 2001 In 2006 Change In 2001 in 2006 Rainy R Change A - Management Occupations 29,635 30,660 1,025 10,800 10, B - Business, Finance & Admin. Occupations 2,610 2, C - Natural & Applied Sciences & Related Occupations 4,840 3, ,280 2,575 1,295 D - Health Occupations 4,030 1,420-2, ,610 1,335 E - Occupations in Social Science, Education, Government Service, Religion 830 1, F - Occupations in Art, Culture, Recreation, Sport 5,875 3,510-2,365 1,095 1, G - Sales and Service Occupations 3, , , H - Trades, Transport & Equipment Operators & Related Occupations 8,035 8, ,620 2, I - Occupations Unique to Primary Industry 2,610 5,845 3,235 2, ,210 J - Occupations Unique to Processing, Manufacturing and Utilities 4,840 1,660-3, ,575 1,905 Total Experienced Labour Force 4,030 1,195-2, , Source: 2001 and 2006 Census, 2001 and 2006 Community Profiles The largest number of occupational losses was 3,180 in manufacturing and 3,140 in sales and service, both in, offset in part by some gains in those industries in Rainy River. The largest number of occupational gains was 3,235 in primary industry in. Precision Management and EDP Consulting: / Rainy River Labour Market 7

9 Educational Attainment Employers continue to require higher educational attainments for a wider range of occupations. One point to consider is that net employment growth is concentrated among those with post secondary training. Both districts populations outperform Ontario in attainment of apprenticeships, trades certificates, or diplomas but underperform in university certificate diplomas or degrees. The following tables indicate the level of education achieved by the prime working age group of people aged 25 to 44. This group includes a segment of the population who typically did not require a formal education to be employed by Northern Ontario s resource industries in years gone by. The numbers for Northern Ontario have been positively improving over the last number of years, and the results shown below are not surprising given the occupational and industrial structure of this region. Educational Attainment 2006 % Type of Education Attained Ontario Differences % from ON Population aged 25 to 44 (prime working age) 16,790 26% 35.0% -9.0% No certificate, diploma or degree 4, % 3.4% 26.1% High School Certificate or Equivalent 4, % 8.4% 16.8% Apprenticeship or Trades Certificate or Diploma 1, % 2.6% 7.5% College, CEGEP, other non-university Certificate, Diploma 3, % 8.4% 12.5% University Certificate Diploma or Degree 2, % 21.1% -6.8% Source: 2006 Census Educational Attainment 2006 Rainy River Rainy River Rainy River % Type of Education Attained Ontario Differences % from ON Population aged 25 to 44 (prime working age) 5, % 35.0% -11.2% No certificate, diploma or degree % 3.4% 12.3% High School Certificate or Equivalent 1, % 8.4% 24.6% Apprenticeship or Trades Certificate or Diploma % 2.6% 8.3% College, CEGEP, other non-university Certificate, Diploma 1, % 8.4% 17.4% University Certificate Diploma or Degree % 21.1% -6.4% Source: 2006 Census Precision Management and EDP Consulting: / Rainy River Labour Market 8

10 Field of Study Field of study means the main discipline or subject of learning for the highest certificate, diploma or degree above the high school or secondary school level. In and Rainy River s, there are markedly higher percentages of the population 15 and over who were not engaged in postsecondary education. Of those engaged in study, note the differences between each district and the rest of Ontario below. Field of Study Field of Study 2006 Ontario Ontario % % % Total population 15 years and over 9,819,420 48,860 17,040 No postsecondary certificate, diploma or degree 4,812, % 30, % 9, % Education 335, % 1, % % Visual/performing arts/communications technologies 193, % % % Humanities 292, % % % Social/behavioural sciences and law 576, % 1, % % Business, management and public administration 1,061, % 3, % 1, % Physical and life sciences and technologies 181, % % % Mathematics/computer/info. sciences 254, % % % Architecture, engineering, and related technologies 1,089, % 4, % 1, % Agriculture, natural resources and conservation 91, % % % Health, parks, recreation and fitness 665, % 2, % 1, % Personal, protective, transport services 264, % 1, % % Other % 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Source: 2006 Census, Community Profiles Precision Management and EDP Consulting: / Rainy River Labour Market 9

11 Migration Migration patterns reflect an area s labour force characteristics. Areas offering the most employment opportunities attract more people than they lose, while areas offering fewer jobs tend to lose more people than they attract. As with the rest of Northern Ontario, and Rainy River s have low rates of in-migrants. Collectively, in 2006, the region has 13 percent in-migrants very slightly below the Northern Ontario average of 13.2 percent. The City of and the Town of Fort Frances have relatively low rates of in-migrants while Red Lake and Sioux Lookout continue to have high rates of in-migrants. Net migration is shown on the table below. Note that all working-age cohorts, including the prime-working-age cohort of ages 25 to 44, realized losses from 2001 to Migration 2001 to 2006 Inmigrants Outmigrants Netmigrants Inmigrants Outmigrants Netmigrants Age Group , , prime working age 781 4, ,075 1, , Source: Statistics Canada, Taxfiler Labour Force Activity The table below shows and Rainy River s labour force activity. The districts compare similarly to Northern Ontario as a whole. For Northern Ontario, employment rates continue to be lower than for Ontario but are improving. Communities with the highest employment rates tend to be in Northwestern Ontario. Northern Ontario participation rates are also lower than Ontario s, and Northern Ontario unemployment rates continue to be higher than Ontario s but have been decreasing. Differences in youth unemployment between Northern Ontario and Ontario declined from 2001 to Communities with the highest unemployment rates are Aboriginal communities. Labour Force Activity 2006 Labour Force Ontario Rainy River Total population 15 years and over 9,819,420 48,865 17,040 In the labour force 6,587,580 31,340 10,935 Employed 6,164,245 28,595 10,075 Unemployed 423,335 2, Not in the labour force 3,231,840 17,520 6,100 Participation rate 67.1% 64.1% 64.2% Employment rate 62.8% 58.5% 59.1% Unemployment rate 6.4% 8.8% 7.9% Source: 2006 Census, Community Profiles Precision Management and EDP Consulting: / Rainy River Labour Market 10

12 Aboriginal Labour Force The aboriginal population 15 years of age and older in and Rainy River s in 2006 was 20,345. Of this group, 11,715 aboriginal people were in the labour force in 2006, which represents a participation rate of 57.6 percent, as noted in the table below. In comparison, the participation rates for the overall population in and Rainy River s were slightly higher: 64.1 percent and 64.2 percent respectively. Labour Force Activity 2006 Rainy River Aboriginals in both s Labour Force Ontario Total population 15 years and over 9,819,420 48,865 17,040 20,345 Participation rate 67.1% 64.1% 64.2% 57.6% Unemployment rate 6.4% 8.8% 7.9% 15.5% The distribution of employment by sector for the aboriginal labour force in 2006 was generally consistent with that of the broader labour force in and Rainy River s, although the aboriginal labour force had slightly higher concentrations of employment in sales and service occupations; social, education and government services; and a lower percentage in health occupations. Educational levels of the aboriginal population are significantly lower than the general population. For example, 50.5 percent of the aboriginal population 25-to-34 years of age has not attained a high school diploma. This is high and compares negatively to 31.1 percent and 15.0 percent of the population in that age cohort in and Rainy River s respectively. In comparison, only 8.7 percent of the labour force in Ontario in that age group has not attained a high school diploma. Precision Management and EDP Consulting: / Rainy River Labour Market 11