Labour Market Brief September Quarter 2015

Transcription

1 Labour Market Brief September Quarter 2015 Key Message Overall the labour market continues to remain relatively tight, with both full time and part time employment continuing to increase since the beginning of 2015, the underemployment rate the lowest in, and the labour force participation rate remaining at an all-time high for all jurisdictions. Within the Territory, the Greater Darwin region continues to have the strongest labour market, largely driven by ongoing construction works. Most other Territory regional labour markets reported increases in unemployment rates in the quarter. Ongoing work on the INPEX Ichthys project will continue to stimulate economic activity and employment opportunities. Introduction The labour market is characterised by a relatively young and skilled workforce, high participation and low unemployment. However, there are also marked differences between certain cohorts and within different sub- Territory regions. Regional Labour Markets Region Jun 2014 Mar 2015 Jun 2015 Alice Springs Unemployment (no.) Labour Force (no.) Unemployment Rate () Barkly Unemployment (no.) Labour Force (no.) Unemployment Rate () Daly - Tiwi - West Arnhem Unemployment (no.) Labour Force (no.) Unemployment Rate () East Arnhem Unemployment (no.) Labour Force (no.) Unemployment Rate () Greater Darwin Unemployment (no.) Labour Force (no.) Unemployment Rate () Katherine Unemployment (no.) Labour Force (no.) Unemployment Rate () Source: Department of Employment, n Government. During the June quarter 2015: all regions reported an increase in unemployment rates, except for Alice Springs, where the unemployment rate was unchanged from the previous quarter. outside the Greater Darwin region, Alice Springs and East Arnhem both experienced the lowest unemployment rate at 6.2. the Barkly region has the highest unemployment rate in the Territory at 9.8. Generally this region experiences a higher level of unemployment compared to other Territory regions, largely due to the lower levels of economic activity and a less diverse local economy. All regions (except Greater Darwin) reported a strong decrease in unemployment rates when compared to the June quarter It should be noted that many Territory regions consist of a small population base, which can result in volatility in labour market figures. Regional Apprentices and Trainees Region YTD Jul 2014 YTD Jul 2015 Alice Springs Commencements Completions Barkly Commencements Completions 13 8 West Arnhem Commencements Completions East Arnhem Commencements Completions Darwin Commencements Completions Katherine Commencements Completions Source: Comparing the year to date to July 2015 to the same period to July 2014, apprentice and trainee commencements decreased in all Territory regions. Completions also decreased in all regions. As there can be significant lags in reporting training data, the data may be revised in the future.

2 Apprentice and Trainee Commencements by Training Funding Group (year to date to July 2015) Training Funding Group 2014 YTD 2014 YTD 2015 Arts, Entertainment, Sports and Recreation Source: Automotive Building and Construction Business and Clerical Communications Community Services, Health and Education Computing Engineering and Mining Exceptions - Cookery Finance Banking and Insurance Food Processing Primary Industry Process Manufacturing Sales and Personal Service Science, Technical and Other Textiles, Clothing, Footwear and Furnishings Tourism and Hospitality Transport and Storage Utilities Total Apprentice and Trainee Completions by Training Funding Group (year to date to July 2015) Training Funding Group 2014 YTD 2014 YTD 2015 Arts, Entertainment, Sports and Recreation YTD Automotive Building and Construction Business and Clerical Communications Community Services, Health and Education Computing Engineering and Mining Exceptions - Cookery Finance Banking and Insurance Food Processing Primary Industry Process Manufacturing Sales and Personal Service Science, Technical and Other Textiles, Clothing, Footwear and Furnishings YTD Tourism and Hospitality Transport and Storage Utilities Total Commencements In the year to date to July 2015, there were 1477 apprentice and trainee commencements in the Territory. Compared to the same period last year, there has been a 20.7 decrease (386) in the number of commencements, despite increases reported across about half of the training funding groups. Due to the natural lag in contracts being registered (up to 6 months after the commencement date) it is expected there was a considerably higher number of actual commencements than at the time of publishing. The training funding groups with the largest number of commencements were Primary industry (203), followed by Utilities (172), and both Business and clerical and Automotive (each with 149). In the year to date to July 2015, the training funding groups to experience the largest increases in commencements compared to the year to date to April 2014 were Food processing (47), Primary industry (31), and Arts, entertainment, sports and recreation (15). In Alice Springs, the largest number of apprentice and trainee commencements was in Tourism and hospitality (60). West Arnhem had the lowest commencements with 25 in the year to date to July Over the same period, Katherine had 195 apprentice and trainee commencements with 119 of those in Primary industry. Apprentice and trainee commencements are an indicator of employment demand and employer sentiment. Completions In the year to date to July 2015, there were 471 apprentice and trainee completions in the Territory, a 36.0 decrease (265) compared to the same period last year. As with commencements, there are also lags in completions, as such the magnitude of the decline in completions is likely significantly less than at the time of publishing. The decrease in apprentice and trainee completions has not been concentrated to any specific industry, with falls experienced by most training funding groups. Industries that experienced increases in completions in the year to date to July 2015 include Food processing (8 to 48), Engineering and mining (41 to 47), and Computing (7 to 8). Industries that experienced large decreases in the year to July 2015 were Community services, health and education (90 to 23), Business and clerical (85 to 50), and Tourism and hospitality (69 to 38). In Alice Springs, the largest number of apprentice and trainee completions was in Tourism and hospitality, accounting for 29 completions out of a total of 96. East Arnhem had a total of 30 completions, followed by Katherine with 29. West Arnhem had 12 completions, and the Barkly region had 8 completions. Source: 2

3 Unemployment Rate Chart 1: Unemployment Rate (quarterly average) In the August quarter 2015, the Territory unemployment rate increased by 0.1 of a percentage point to 4.4, from the previous quarter s revised figure. There were 6250 unemployed persons in the Territory in the August quarter 2015, an increase from 6100 persons in the previous quarter. In the August quarter 2015, the male unemployment rate in the Territory was unchanged at 4.7, while the female unemployment rate increased by 0.2 of a percentage point to 4.1. Nationally, the male unemployment rate was also unchanged at 6.1, while the female unemployment rate increased by 0.1 of a percentage point to 6.2 respectively. Resident Employment Chart 2: Resident Employment Index (100 = June 2006) Males Females In the August quarter 2015, there were Territorians that were employed, an increase of 650 from the previous quarter s revised figure. Full-time employment increased by 350 to persons. Part-time employment increased by 300 persons over the period to persons. In the August quarter 2015 in the Territory, male full-time employment increased by 0.4 while female full-time employment increased by 0.2. At the national level, male employment increased by 0.4 in the quarter, driven by a 1.5 increase in part-time employment. Female employment increased by 0.7 over the same period. Underemployment Underemployment Rate NT 0.0 ppt ppt 8.4 An underemployed person is an employed person whose hours of work were less than 35 hours in a particular week, and they were willing and available to work additional hours if offered. The Territory underemployment rate is the lowest of the jurisdictions at 3.8 of total employed persons, signifying that compared to the rest of, there are more employed people in the Territory working their desired number of hours. The number of underemployed persons in the Territory decreased to 5400 in the August quarter 2015, but has been generally rising over the past two years. Hours worked Average Weekly Hours Worked Per Capita NT (Hours) Average weekly hours worked per capita refers to the number of hours each employed person works each week on average. In the August quarter 2015, average weekly hours worked per capita in the Territory decreased by 0.8 to 37.7 hours per week on average. Nationally, average weekly hours worked per capita decreased by 0.4 to 34.6 hours per week. On average, Territory workers work longer hours than nationally, which may also be a reason the Territory has the lowest underemployment rate in the nation

4 Employment by Industry Top 5 Industries by Percentage Source: ABS Cat No In the year to August 2015, Accommodation and food services had the highest percentage increase in employment of all industries (21.6), followed by Electricity, gas, water and waste services (12.2). Public administration and safety, the largest employing industry, which includes activities involving government legislation, emergency services and border control, had a year on year decrease of 1.3. Construction is the largest industry in the Territory by value of production, and is also a significant employer (11.9 of total employment). In the year to August 2015, Construction employment increased by 4.6 to persons. Mining is the second largest industry in the Territory by value of production. However, Mining only employs approximately 4.2 of the Territory workforce as the industry is capital intensive, utilising machines instead of people to perform many tasks. In the year, Mining employment decreased by 8.0. Caution should be exercised when interpreting employment changes by industry due to data volatility in small jurisdictions such as the. Chart 3: Employment by Industry (year average to August 2015) Source: ABS Cat No Resident Population Source: ABS Cat No In the December quarter 2014, the Territory s estimated resident population (ERP) decreased by 0.3 to Year on Year Accommodation and Food Services 21.6 Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services 12.2 Financial and Insurance Services 5.3 Construction 4.6 Wholesale Trade 3.2 Public administration and safety Health care and social assistance Construction Education and training Retail trade Accommodation and food services Professional, scientific and technical services Transport, postal and warehousing Other services Mining Administrative and support services Manufacturing Arts and recreation services Wholesale trade Electricity, gas, water and waste services Rental, hiring and real estate services Financial and insurance services Information media and telecommunications Agriculture, forestry and fishing Employed Persons Number of Persons Population NT persons, while the national population increased by 0.3 to persons. In annual terms the Territory s ERP increased by 0.4, the second lowest of the jurisdictions and lower than the national annual growth rate of 1.4. Chart 4: Annual Population Growth Rate Annual change () Source: ABS Cat No Territory annual ERP growth has moderated over the past 12 months and is now below the Territory 10-year average growth rate. Net interstate migration has deteriorated from a net outflow of 1220 persons in to a net outflow of 3392 persons in Labour Force In the August quarter 2015, there were persons in the civilian population (persons aged 15 years and over) and persons in the labour force (employed persons and those actively pursuing employment). This is 800 persons more than in the May quarter Since 2006, the Territory labour force has increased at a faster pace than the civilian population, implying the number of people employed or actively looking for a job has increased at a faster pace than the civilian population, leading to tighter labour market conditions. Chart 5: Labour Force and Civilian Population Index (100 = June 2006) year average Labour Force 90 Civilian Population 4

5 Labour Force Participation Rate In the August quarter 2015, the Territory labour force participation rate increased by 0.2 of a percentage point to 76.0 from the previous quarter s revised figure. The Territory continues to report the highest labour force participation rate of all-time for all jurisdictions and was 11.1 percentage points above the national rate of 64.9 in the August quarter Chart 6: Participation Rate (quarterly average) The Territory male workforce participation rate increased by 0.6 of a percentage point to 79.7 in the August quarter The Territory female workforce participation rate decreased by 0.2 of a percentage point to 71.9 in the August quarter Historically, male participation in the workforce has been higher than female participation, in large part due to a relatively higher proportion of females leaving the workforce to care for family. At the national level, the male workforce participation rate was unchanged at 71.1 in the August quarter 2015, while the female workforce participation rate increased by 0.3 of a percentage point to Territory workforce participation rates for both males and females are significantly higher than nationally, reflecting greater confidence in the Territory economy and job prospects. Youth Labour Market (15-24 years old) Annual Average Attending Full-time Education NT Total Employed NT Total Unemployed NT Labour Force (15-19 years old) NT Civilian Population (15-24 years old) NT Unemployment Rate NT 0.7 ppt ppt 17.0 Participation Rate NT 4.1 ppt ppt 50.0 In the year to August 2015 the number of youth (persons aged 15 to 24 years) employed in the Territory decreased by 3.5 to 4400 persons. Over the same period, national youth employment increased by 1.6 to persons. Youth labour market data is reported on by averaging monthly data over a year. This is done to lessen the variability and volatility of monthly movements. In the year to August 2015, 7300 out of the youths (59.8) were undertaking full time education in the Territory, a decrease from 62.5 in the previous quarter. In comparison, 50.1 of the national youth population were undertaking full time education. Chart 7: Youth Unemployment Rate (annual average) Year on Year 5 0 In the year to August 2015 the average youth unemployment rate in the Territory was This is below the corresponding national rate of The Territory youth unemployment rate has generally been decreasing over the past year, while in comparison the national youth unemployment rate has been increasing over the same period. 5

6 Chart 8: Youth Participation Rate (annual average) In the year to August 2015, the average youth participation rate in the Territory was 40.1 and 50.0 nationally. Wage Price Index Source: ABS Cat No The Wage Price Index (WPI) measures changes in the price of wages and salaries and excludes changes in overtime and bonus payments. In the June quarter 2015, the WPI increased by 0.4 both in the Territory and nationally. In annual terms, the Territory WPI increased by 2.4 in , slightly above the nationally growth rate of 2.3 over the same period. Chart 9: Wage Price Index (annual percentage change) Source: ABS Cat No Wage Price Index NT Average Weekly Earnings Average Weekly Full Time Adult Ordinary Time Earnings Average Weekly Full Time Adult Total Earnings Source: ABS Cat No Average weekly full-time adult ordinary time earnings (ordinary earnings) and average weekly full-time adult total earnings (total earnings) includes earnings for all wage and salary earners, except some groups such as overseas consulates and n Defence personnel. For a full list see Labour Force Terms and Information. In the six months to May 2015, ordinary earnings in the Territory increased by 3.8 to $1511. Over the same period, average weekly total earnings (which includes overtime payments) increased by 2.8 to $1611. At the national level, ordinary earnings increased by 0.7 to $1485, and average weekly total earnings increased by 0.5 over the period to $1546. Territory weekly total earnings are now $65 higher than nationally, compared to being $30 higher in November Chart 10: Average Weekly Earnings $ Total Earnings Source: ABS Cat No Monthly NT 3.8 $ $1 485 NT 2.8 $ $1 546 Ordinary Earnings May 2014 Nov 2014 May

7 Newstart and Youth Allowance Newstart and Youth Allowance Source: Department of Social Services, n Government. In the July quarter 2015, the number of Newstart and Youth Allowance recipients that are ready and available to work in the Territory increased by 13.4 to In the July quarter 2015, all jurisdictions recorded an increase in the number of Newstart and Youth Allowance recipients. The Territory had the highest increase (13.4), followed by Western (9.1), and South (4.2). At the national level the number of recipients increased by 3.4 to Chart 11: Newstart and Youth Allowance Recipients Persons (000s) Persons NT (LHS) (RHS) Year ended December Persons (000s) The fall in job vacancies in the Territory may indicate that employment growth will decrease in the short term. Chart 12: Job Vacancies Number (000s) Source: ABS Cat No Public Other Economic Indicators Total Private No single indicator can give a comprehensive view of the labour market. There are a number of economic indicators that can impact on or explain changes in the Northern Territory labour market that are not considered in this publication. These may include gross state product, inflation, retail sales, international trade, business and consumer sentiment and housing affordability. For consideration of broader economic indicators please see NT key business statistics: s/economics/key-statistics/pages/default.aspx. Source: Department of Social Services, n Government Job Vacancies Year on Year Vacancies Job Vacancies NT Source: ABS Cat No Job vacancies are a leading indicator for future jobs growth, with an increase indicating increased demand for workers. Territory job vacancies decreased by 12.6 to 3300 vacancies in the year to May This was primarily driven by a 15.7 decrease in the number of private sector job vacancies to 2800 vacancies. Public sector job vacancies in the Territory increased by 17.6 in the year to 500 vacancies. At the national level, job vacancies increased by 6.2 to vacancies in the year to May The increase nationally was mainly the result of both private and public sector vacancies rising by 5.4 and 15.7 respectively in the year. 7

8 Regional Labour Markets Chart 13: Greater Darwin Unemployment Rates Greater Darwin Darwin City Darwin Suburbs Litchfield Palmerston Source: Department of Employment (n Government) Small Area Labour Market publication Overall Greater Darwin reported an unemployment rate of 3.6 in the June quarter 2015, a slight increase from 3.4 in the March quarter Within the Greater Darwin region, Darwin City experienced the lowest unemployment rate in the June quarter 2015 at 2.6, and has generally been decreasing over the past three years. All Greater Darwin regions reported increases in the unemployment rate in the quarter, and Darwin Suburbs, Litchfield and Palmerston unemployment rates have been increasing over the past year. Palmerston reported the largest quarterly increase in the unemployment rate in the Greater Darwin region, increasing from 4.1 in the March quarter 2015 to 4.4 in the June quarter Ongoing work on major construction projects will continue to stimulate economic activity in the Darwin region and employment opportunities, with record worker numbers expected in 2015 on the INPEX project. At suburb level, there are pockets of extremely low unemployment rates, e.g. as low as 1. Broadly, an unemployment rate of less than 5 is considered as low. Notes All data referred to are in original terms except for unemployment rate, participation rate, employment, labour force, and civilian population. For information on the data sources used and a glossary of labour market terms please see Labour Market Terms and Information. Data Sources n Bureau of Statistics, catalogue numbers , , , , , , (NT Government) Department of Employment (n Government) Department of Social Services Enquiries Strategic Policy and Research, employment.strategy@nt.gov.au Disclaimer The of gives no warranty of assurance, and makes no representation as to the accuracy of any information or advice contained in this publication, or that it is suitable for your intended use. You should not rely upon information in this publication for the purpose of making any serious business or investment decisions without obtaining independent, professional advice in relation to your particular situation.