Labour Market Bulletin

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1 Labour Market Bulletin Manitoba September The Monthly Edition of the Labour Market Bulletin provides an analysis of monthly Labour Force Survey results for the province of Manitoba, including the regions of Winnipeg, Northern Manitoba and Southern Manitoba. OVERVIEW Employment Manitoba lost 3,100 jobs in, marking the second consecutive month of employment losses. This is a departure from the norm in, historically a strong month for employment in Manitoba. Nonetheless, the provincial economy has improved from last year, with employment up 2,900 and the unemployment rate slightly lower compared to. Employment losses between July and were entirely in full-time positions. Meanwhile, part-time jobs increased slightly, surpassing levels and accounting for all net job growth since that time. Private sector employment remains much higher than it was this time last year, despite the loss of 1,100 positions in. Meanwhile, public sector employment was down 7,000 (4.2%) in from a year before. Employment in the sector reached a four-year low this month. A long-term downward trend in the sector is apparent as governments react both to budget restraints. Unemployment Manitoba s unemployment rate decreased 0.3 percentage point to 5.2% in, as fewer people looked for work. The province s rate has averaged 5.2% over the last five years and sits well under the national figure, currently 7.1%. Although nearly all age groups saw lower unemployment rates this month, those 55 and older experienced an increase for the sixth consecutive month, rising from 2.8% in March to 5.5% in. The increase comes alongside a similar upswing in the participation rate of older workers who are choosing to remain in the workforce longer. In fact, after four months of continuous gains, those 55 and over saw a record high participation rate of 41.6% in.

2 Labour Market Bulletin - Manitoba, September Page 2 Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Data Manitoba Monthly Labour Force Statistics July Monthly Number % Number % Population 15 + ('000) Labour Force ('000) Employment ('000) Full-Time ('000) Part-Time ('000) Unemployment ('000) Unemployment Rate Participation Rate Employment Rate Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey CANSIM Table Manitoba Monthly Unemployment Rates, by Gender and Age Seasonally Adjusted Data July Monthly % % % (% points) (% points) Total years and over Men - 25 years and over Women - 25 years and over to 24 years Men - 15 to 24 years Women - 15 to 24 years Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey CANSIM Table

3 Labour Market Bulletin - Manitoba, September Page 3 EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY The province saw employment losses across most industries between July and. The goods-producing sector fell by the largest amount, shedding 2,300 jobs. The sector still employs over 2,000 more people than it did last ; however, employment continues trending downward from a record high in the winter months. Manufacturing remained flat this month, but the overall trend is one of growth. The industry s slow but steady recovery from the 2009 recession is expected to continue in and pick up pace over the next two years. US demand for transportation equipment should increase, as evidenced by New Flyer Industries increased second quarter bus orders. A TD Economics forecast predicts employment will rise alongside big-ticket exports. Employment in agriculture continued to fall this month, but the industry s workforce still remains nearly 8.2% larger than this time last year. Farmers expect high yields in a number of staple crops this season. Meanwhile, there was minimal job loss in the services-producing sector this month. Three months of consecutive job loss has now left the sector virtually unchanged from this time last year. Accounting for 77% of the province s jobs, slow sector growth reflects negatively on overall provincial employment. The trade industry continued to recover this month, adding 800 jobs on top of four consecutive months of employment gains. Trade now employs 94,500 people compared to 88,700 in April. This comes on the heels of a poor spring performance that saw employment decline to levels not seen since the 2009 recession. The Conference Board of Canada forecasts that consumers will continue spending despite a provincial sales tax hike. Employment in retail trade should increase as a number of big box retail chains have recently opened or are currently expanding in Manitoba. Transportation and warehousing also added 3,000 jobs this month, reaching a four-year high. The largest drop among all industries was in professional, scientific and technical services, which shrank by 3,600 jobs, leaving the sector with 4,100 fewer jobs than in.

4 Labour Market Bulletin - Manitoba, September Page 4 Seasonally Adjusted Data ('000) Manitoba Monthly Labour Force Statistics, by Industry July Monthly Number % Number % Total employed, all industries Goods-producing sector Agriculture Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas Utilities Construction Manufacturing Services-producing sector Trade Transportation and warehousing Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing Professional, scientific and technical services Business, building and other support services Educational services Health care and social assistance Information, culture and recreation Accommodation and food services Other services Public administration Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey CANSIM Table REGIONAL ANALYSIS Most of Manitoba s regions performed well in, with only two areas showing noteworthy yearly declines. The Southwest and Parklands and North regions both saw decreases in employment, while Interlake remained relatively unchanged. Year-over-year job growth continued in Winnipeg this month. Going forward, a BMO Economics report predicts the trend will continue, and the next three years should see 12,000 jobs added to the city. A number of major construction projects will likely drive the anticipated job creation, including the construction of two high-rise towers proposed for the downtown area, a major expansion of the Winnipeg Convention Centre, and the redevelopment of the former Winnipeg Stadium site into retail space. Manitoba s North Central and Southeast regions saw the largest employment growth over the last year. However, as Winnipeg remains the province s most significant labour market, gains outside the city limits often have little impact on overall employment numbers in the province. Meanwhile, employment in northern Manitoba decreased slightly since last year, while unemployment declined 2.1 percentage points to 6.6%. Going forward, the province will likely lead the country in capital spending on infrastructure projects this year, according to the results of a Statistics Canada survey. 1 This is good news for Manitoba s north, which is heavily 1

5 Labour Market Bulletin - Manitoba, September Page 5 dependent upon its construction industry. The Conference Board of Canada also forecasts that metal mining will rebound as production increases at the Lalor, Rice Lake, and Farley Lake mines, which should lead to employment gains in the mining industry. 3-Month Moving Averages Seasonally Unadjusted Data Manitoba Monthly Labour Force Statistics, by Economic Region ('000) Employment ('000) Unemployment Rate (% points) Manitoba Economic Regions Southeast South Central Southwest North Central Winnipeg Interlake Parklands & North Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey CANSIM Table Note: In preparing this document, the authors have taken care to provide clients with labour market information that is timely and accurate at the time of publication. Since labour market conditions are dynamic, some of the information presented here may have changed since this document was published. Users are encouraged to also refer to other sources for additional information on the local economy and labour market. Information contained in this document does not necessarily reflect official policies of Employment and Social Development Canada. Prepared by: Labour Market Information (LMI) Division, Service Canada, Manitoba For further information, please contact the LMI team at: For information on the Labour Force Survey, please visit the Statistics Canada Web site at:

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