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1 ECONOMY OF YUMA Prepared by January 2008 Center for Competitiveness and Prosperity Research L. William Seidman Research Institute W. P. Carey School of Business Arizona State University Tempe, Arizona

2 ECONOMY OF YUMA January 2008 Prepared by: Center for Competitiveness and Prosperity Research L. William Seidman Research Institute W. P. Carey School of Business Arizona State University Tempe, Arizona Peer reviewed by the Arizona Department of Commerce Economic Research Advisory Committee: Dan Anderson Assistant Executive Director for Institutional Analysis Arizona Board of Regents Kent Ennis Deputy Director Arizona Department of Commerce William P. Patton, PhD Senior Research Economist Economic & Business Research Center The University of Arizona Brian Cary Corporate Economist Strategic Economic Services SRP Wayne Fox Director, Bureau of Business and Economic Research Northern Arizona University Elliott D. Pollack Elliott D. Pollack & Co. Lisa Danka Assistant Deputy Director, Finance and Investment Arizona Department of Commerce James B. Nelson Economic Development Manager Salt River Project Brad Steen Chief Economist Arizona Department of Transportation 2008 by the Arizona Department of Commerce. This document may be reproduced without restriction provided it is reproduced accurately, is not used in a misleading context, and the author and the Arizona Department of Commerce are given appropriate recognition. This report was prepared for the Arizona Department of Commerce with funding from the Commerce and Economic Development Commission. Elements of this report may be presented independently elsewhere at the author's discretion. Inquiries should be directed to the Office of Strategic Research, Arizona Department of Commerce, (602) The Arizona Department of Commerce has made every reasonable effort to assure the accuracy of the information contained herein, including peer and/or technical review. However, the contents and sources upon which it is based are subject to changes, omissions and errors and the Arizona Department of Commerce accept no responsibility or liability for inaccuracies that may be present. THIS DOCUMENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THE ARIZONA DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PRESENTS THE MATERIAL IN THIS REPORT WITHOUT IT OR ANY OF ITS EMPLOYEES MAKING ANY WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, OR ASSUMING ANY LEGAL LIABILITY OR RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR USEFULNESS OF ANY INFORMATION, APPARATUS, PRODUCT, OR PROCESS DISCLOSED, OR REPRESENTING THAT ITS USE WOULD NOT INFRINGE PRIVATELY OWNED RIGHTS. THE USER ASSUMES THE ENTIRE RISK AS TO THE ACCURACY AND THE USE OF THIS DOCUMENT AND ANY RELATED OR LINKED DOCUMENTS

3 ECONOMY OF YUMA (ZIP CODES 85364, 85365, 85366, AND 85369) Agriculture and military operations are the primary drivers of the Yuma economy. Seasonal residents, certain manufacturing operations, and some administrative support functions also contribute. Agriculture provides the most employment of any sector in Yuma. Zip codes 85364, 85365, 85366, and are used as an approximation for Yuma and include the Fortuna Foothills Census Designated Place. The zip code area is far more extensive and has a population greater than within the city of Yuma and Fortuna Foothills. The 2,681-square-mile land area of the five zip codes is much larger than the combined area of square miles within the city of Yuma (106.7 square miles) and Fortuna Foothills. The 2000 decennial census count of 125,387 residents in these zip codes was 28 percent more than the combined population of 97,993 in the city of Yuma (77,515 residents) and Fortuna Foothills. The 2004 population of Yuma, as defined by these zip codes, is estimated at 138,946. THE ECONOMY IN 2004 Total Employment Total employment in Yuma is estimated to have been approximately 60,475 in Total employment was 435 per 1,000 residents 9 percent less than the national average, but 2 percent more than the Arizona average and in the top quartile of 83 Arizona cities and towns. Relative to the Arizona average, excess employment was around 1,075. The demographics of Yuma residents contributed to this slightly low per capita figure. According to the 2000 census, the share of Yuma residents who were of working age was below average (the share of senior citizens was high), a below-average proportion of the working-age population participated in the labor force, and the unemployment rate was high. However, the 2000 census counted 43,850 employed Yuma residents, considerably less than the number of jobs located in Yuma (in 2001). Migrant farm workers likely accounted for much of the differential. In addition, some military personnel may have been counted at their family home rather than in Yuma, and some of the Yuma workforce may be composed of people living in other communities, such as Somerton, who commuted to work in Yuma. Agriculture and Government Agriculture largely is a basic activity that includes agricultural support activities as well as farming and ranching. Agriculture employment in the Yuma zip codes in 2004 is estimated to have been about 11,050, the second-highest employment of the 20 sectors. With employment per 1,000 residents a very high 80, agriculture s employment per capita was approximately 13 times higher than the national and state averages. The per capita figure was second highest among Arizona cities, behind only neighboring Wellton. The Dateland-Gadsden-Tacna area (unincorporated Yuma County) also had a higher figure. Excess employment was approximately 10,200. The government sector represents a mix of basic and nonbasic activities. Most federal government employment (both civilian and military) is basic to both the community and the state. State government employment may be basic to the community, but is it not basic to the state. Similarly, county government and community college employment may be basic to the community (for example, a portion of the employment at the county seat is basic in that some

4 workers serve other communities in the county), but not to the county or the state. Other local government municipal, tribal, school district and special district only rarely is basic to a community. Government employment in Yuma in 2004 was approximately 15,400, the most of any sector. Government employment per 1,000 residents was a high 111 in Yuma 38 to 53 percent higher than the state and national averages and in the top quartile among Arizona cities and towns. Excess employment was approximately 4,200 relative to the national average and 5,350 calculated against the Arizona average. The federal government was responsible for nearly half of the total government employment, and by far was the largest employer in Yuma. Military employment was estimated at nearly, 4,700, mostly at the Yuma Marine Corps Air Station. Civilian employment also was substantial at this facility, but was outnumbered by that at the Army s Yuma Proving Grounds. The Border Patrol was another federal employer, but its employment was considerably less than that at the military bases. All of these federal activities are basic to the Yuma economy. Three school districts Crane Elementary, Yuma Elementary, and Yuma High School employed a total of 3,425, with all three among the community s larger employers. With Yuma being the Yuma County seat, county government employment was substantial at about 1,350. State government employment was nearly 1,150 (not counting university employment), with the prison largely basic to the Yuma economy having the largest workforce. The city of Yuma employed nearly 1,050 and Arizona Western College employed around 825. Nonagriculture Private-Sector Economy Nonagriculture private-sector employment in Yuma was approximately 34,025 in Employment was only 245 per 1,000 residents 30 to 37 percent less than the national and state averages, but in the top third of Arizona cities and towns. Employment estimates for 2004 for the broad sectors of the Yuma economy are shown in Table 1. Other than agriculture and government, retail trade provided the most employment. In addition to agriculture and government, per capita employment was above the national average in construction (see the location quotient relative to nation column of the table). Relative to agriculture and government, construction did not employ many more than if the sector s per capita employment had been equal to the national per capita average (see the excess employment relative to nation column of the table). Yuma had very considerable excess basic employment in the agriculture and government sectors. While per capita employment was less than average in the other basic sectors of mining, manufacturing, wholesale trade, and transportation and warehousing, the location quotient generally exceeded 0.5. Tourism also had only a somewhat below-average presence in Yuma. More generally, the location quotient was less than 0.5 in seven of the 20 sectors, a relatively small number for communities in Arizona. More sectorally detailed data show that 10 nonagricultural industries provided excess employment of at least 275 in Yuma, seven of which have a basic component (see Table 2). Two of the industries perishable prepared food manufacturing, which by far had the most excess employment, and fresh fruit and vegetable wholesaling are closely linked to the local agriculture sector. The Census Bureau indicates that one of the perishable food establishments employed between 500 and 999 in 2004 and another employed between 250 and 499. Local sources show three companies Dole, Grower s Company, and Salyer American employing more than this, but employment at these companies is quite seasonal and their employment might

5 TABLE 1 WAGE AND SALARY EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR Yuma (Zip Codes 85364, 85365, 85366, and 85369), 2004 Relative to Nation Relative to Arizona Number of Location Excess Location Excess Sector Establishments Employment Quotient Employment Quotient Employment TOTAL 3,074 61, ,032 AGRICULTURE , , ,233 GOVERNMENT 15 16, , ,331 TOTAL, NONAGRICULTURE PRIVATE SECTOR 2,377 34, Mining Utilities Construction 265 3, Manufacturing 73 3, Wholesale Trade 103 1, Retail Trade 416 6, Transportation and Warehousing Information Finance and Insurance Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 169 1, Management of Companies and Enterprises Administrative, Support, Waste Management, Remediation Services 126 2, Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance 293 5, Arts, Entertainment and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services 258 4, Other Services (except public administration) 226 1, Unclassified Establishments Source: Nonagriculture private sector estimated from U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Zip Business Patterns Agricultural production employees, most government employees, railroad employees, self-employed individuals and employees of private households are not included in this data source. The agriculture and government sectors are estimated see Chapter I for details. The concept of establishment for agriculture and government differs from that used for the nonagriculture private sector.

6 TABLE 2 NONAGRICULTURE PRIVATE-SECTOR INDUSTRIES WITH EXCESS WAGE AND SALARY EMPLOYMENT OF AT LEAST 275* Yuma (Zip Codes 85364, 85365, 85366, and 85369), 2004 Relative to Nation Relative to Arizona Number of Location Excess Location Excess Industry Establishments Employment Quotient Employment Quotient Employment Perishable prepared food manufacturing 3 1, , ,234 Facilities support services Yarn texturizing, throwing, & twisting mills Fresh fruit & vegetable merchant wholesalers Telemarketing bureaus Warehouse clubs & supercenters AC & warm air heating & comml/industrial refrig equip mfg All other basic organic chemical manufacturing General medical & surgical hospitals 2 2, Nursing care facilities * Relative to either the national or Arizona average Note: Those entries in bold with a gray background have a high proportion of sales to customers outside the region and are considered basic (export) economic activities. Those not in bold with a gray background have a moderate proportion of sales to non-residents. Other industries largely serve local residents. Source: Estimated from U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Zip Business Patterns Agricultural production employees, most government employees, railroad employees, self-employed individuals and employees of private households are not included in this data source.

7 be classified as agricultural instead of manufacturing. The Census Bureau statistics are as of the week of March 12. Three other manufacturing industries are listed in Table 2, even though the sector s location quotient was only 0.55: yarn mills; air conditioning, refrigeration, and heating equipment; and basic organic chemicals. All three industries consisted of just one establishment in 2004, according to the Census Bureau. The yarn mill employed between 500 and 999, one of four establishments of this size in Yuma; local sources state this is Tuftex Shaw Industries. The commercial refrigeration equipment establishment and organic chemical (Gowan Company) establishments each had employment of between 250 and 499; four establishments were of this size in Yuma. Since some of the retail sales in Yuma are made to seasonal residents and residents of Mexico, some retail industries are partially basic. The large department store industry features one of the three establishments in Yuma that the Census Bureau reported to have more than 500 employees in 2004, but local sources state that Wal-Mart currently is the largest department store with less than 350 workers. Three other department stores employed between 100 and 249 in The Kmart Super Center is reported to have 300 employees currently, with J.C. Penney and Sears each employing a little more than 100. In addition, the Census Bureau reported a warehouse store employed between 250 and 499 in The other retail industry listed in Table 2 is recreational vehicle dealers. The manufactured home industry also had some excess employment. Two industries in Table 2 are in the administrative support sector: facilities support services and telemarketing bureaus; both are considered to be partially basic. The Census Bureau reported that one facilities support establishment employed between 500 and 999 while a telemarketer employed between 250 and 499 in The other industries in Table 2 typically have little of a basic component. However, seasonal residents and in-migrating retirees make some industries partially basic. The largest private-sector employer in Yuma in 2004 was a hospital that employed more than 1,000: the Yuma Regional Medical Center. A warehouse club/supercenter (Wal-Mart) employed between 500 and 999. Agriculture and military operations are the primary drivers of the Yuma economy, with excess employment far greater than in the other activities. Seasonal residents, certain manufacturing industries, and some administrative support activities also contribute to the Yuma economy. Yuma v. Comparison Cities Employment per 1,000 residents in Yuma in 2004 was 9 percent more than the regional average. Yuma s per capita employment was the highest of the three incorporated cities in the South River region, but was less than in the region s unincorporated area. In the nonagriculture private sector, employment per 1,000 residents in Yuma in 2004 was 20 percent more than the regional average, the highest in the region. Average nonfarm private-sector payroll per employee in Yuma in 2004 was only $24, percent less than the national average and 23 percent less than the Arizona average, but 2 percent more than the regional average. Yuma s figure was the highest in the region. In most sectors, location quotients in Yuma were the highest in the region. Yuma ranked first in 16 of the sectors, second in three sectors and third in the one remaining sector.

8 Five comparison areas were selected, independent of region. Cities and towns of similar size (between 50 percent and 150 percent of the 2004 estimated population of Yuma) located nearby (within 50 miles) generally were selected. These comparison areas were supplemented as necessary with larger nearby cities and towns, smaller nearby cities and towns, and similarly sized cities and towns more than 50 miles away. The magnitude of the difference in city size, distance, and industrial mix also was considered. Per capita employment in Yuma, overall as well as in the nonagriculture private sector, was the third highest of the six cities in this comparison group. Payroll per employee in Yuma also ranked third. Some of the export sectors are shown in Chart 1. Yuma s location quotient was the highest of the comparison group in wholesale trade, and ranked second or third in the remaining export sectors. CHART 1 LOCATION QUOTIENTS IN 2004 Selected Sectors in Yuma and Comparison Cities Accommodation & Food Services Agriculture Manufacturing Transportation Wholesale Trade Yuma Flagstaff Glendale San Luis-Somerton Sierra Vista Wellton Note: The location quotient for agriculture is 11.1 in San Luis-Somerton, 47.8 in Wellton and 12.9 in Yuma. Source: Estimated from U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Zip Business Patterns The agriculture sector was separately estimated see Chapter I for details.

9 CHANGES IN THE ECONOMY BETWEEN 2001 AND 2004 Between 2001 and 2004, Yuma s employment rose nearly 4,850 (9 percent). Employment per 1,000 residents advanced marginally, and the location quotients relative to the national and state averages increased. Yuma experienced an increase of 18 percent in nonfarm private-sector employment between 2001 and 2004, greater than the Arizona average of 5 percent and the barely positive national change, but fractionally less than the regional average. The location quotient relative to the U.S. average rose 0.07 between 2001 and 2004 in Yuma, a little more than the regional average. In contrast, the state s location quotient dropped marginally. The town s employment growth was accompanied by an increase in inflation-adjusted payroll per employee. The 4 percent rise was equal to the regional average and better than the decreases in the state and national figures. The construction sector s location quotient in Yuma rose substantially between 2001 and 2004, with a boost in the sector s excess employment. The manufacturing sector s location quotient also advanced. Three of its industries basic organic chemicals, ready-mix concrete, and especially perishable prepared food had a sizable increase in excess employment, but the excess in the yarn mills industry slipped. Most of the other sectors experienced little change in location quotient (see Table 3). The facilities support services industry had a large increase in excess employment, while telemarketing had a lesser gain. The department stores industry had a substantial decline.

10 TABLE TO-2004 CHANGE IN WAGE AND SALARY EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR Yuma (Zip Codes 85364, 85365, 85366, and 85369) Relative to Nation Relative to Arizona Number of Location Excess Location Excess Sector Establishments Employment Quotient Employment Quotient Employment TOTAL, NONFARM PRIVATE SECTOR 190 5, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting, and Agricultural Support Services Mining Utilities Construction 43 1, Manufacturing 7 1, Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation and Warehousing Information Finance and Insurance Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Management of Companies and Enterprises Administrative, Support, Waste Management, Remediation Services Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance 54 1, Arts, Entertainment and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services Other Services (except public administration) Unclassified Establishments Source: Nonagriculture private sector estimated from U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Zip Business Patterns 2004 and Agricultural production employees, most government employees, railroad employees, self-employed individuals and employees of private households are not included in this data source. The agriculture and government sectors are estimated see Chapter I for details. The concept of establishment for agriculture and government differs from that used for the nonagriculture private sector.

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