City of London. London Community Economic Roadmap Technical Report. April 2, 2015

Transcription

1 Downtown London on a Winter Morning by Mathew Campbell is licensed under CC By-SA 2.0 City of London London Community Economic Roadmap Technical Report April 2, Millier Dickinson Blais: City of London, Economic Roadmap Technical Report

2 Contents 1 INTRODUCTION KEY OBSERVATIONS NOTES ON DATA 8 2 DEMOGRAPHIC TREND ANALYSIS POPULATION MIGRATION AND IMMIGRATION EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT INCOME 13 3 LABOUR FORCE AND EMPLOYMENT LABOUR FORCE CHARACTERISTICS LABOUR FORCE BY INDUSTRY SECTOR AND SUBSECTOR JOB DEMAND BY INDUSTRY FORECASTED LABOUR FORCE GROWTH BY INDUSTRY LABOUR FORCE BY OCCUPATION LONDON JOBS POSTINGS BY OCCUPATION FORECASTED LABOUR FORCE GROWTH BY OCCUPATION LABOUR FORCE BY SKILL WAGES BY INDUSTRY LABOUR FORCE LOCATION QUOTIENTS 31 4 BUSINESS AND INDUSTRY CHARACTERISTICS BUSINESS GROWTH HIRING DEMAND BY EMPLOYER 39 5 MARKET TRENDS AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN LOCAL TARGET SECTOR PERFORMANCE AND TRENDS ADVANCED MANUFACTURING FOOD PROCESSING HEALTH CARE AND LIFE SCIENCES PROFESSIONAL SERVICES DIGITAL CREATIVE BUILDING PERMIT ACTIVITY RESIDENTIAL BUILDING ACTIVITY NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING ACTIVITY EMPLOYMENT LAND SUPPLY TOTAL EMPLOYMENT LAND INVENTORY INDUSTRIAL LAND COST 55 2 Millier Dickinson Blais: City of London, Economic Roadmap Technical Report

3 5.4 PROPERTY TAXES AND DEVELOPMENT CHARGES RESIDENTIAL AND NON-RESIDENTIAL TAX RATES TAX REVENUE BY PROPERTY CLASS ASSESSMENT TRENDS DEVELOPMENT CHARGE RATES 60 6 SUMMARY APPENDIX I: COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS Millier Dickinson Blais: City of London, Economic Roadmap Technical Report

4 1 Introduction London s economy has changed considerably over the last several decades. As with other communities across Canada, the city s traditional sources of employment and economic growth in goods-producing sectors continues to slowly be replaced by new, and often fundamentally different, sources of growth and prosperity in more serviceoriented areas of the economy. The resulting economic reality mandates new approaches to economic development planning - approaches that encourage and promote opportunities that allow all residents to benefit from the continued progress made in the economy. These approaches often find the greatest success when community based. That is, strategies that are more holistic in nature, coordinating and guiding the activities of a broad range of organizations and community partners that have an influence on the economic success of a city. Though the City of London, London Economic Development Corporation and the London Chamber of Commerce can play a lead role in the implementation of the Community Economic Road Map, success will ultimately rely on the ability of these organizations to coordinate and orchestrate the actions of a broad range of community based organizations that influence economic, social, and environmental activities. London s Community Economic Roadmap is intended to create a broad set of objectives to guide that progress, and create specific actions that will guide the community in its pursuit of economic success. The London Plan draft expects growth of 77,000 new residents and 43,000 new jobs over the next 20 years. In order to accommodate that growth, the Plan intends to set the framework for addressing issues like managing the cost of growth, meeting the needs of changing demographics, developing effective and efficient transportation, addressing changes in the economy, protecting farmland, addressing climate change, and shaping the city for prosperity. The Community Economic Roadmap works in partnership with the London Plan draft to achieve and absorb that intended growth. Most notably, the Plan sets out the framework to ensure that the city evolves with a strong enough economic base to generate the services that support its new residents, while encouraging the estimated 43,000 net new jobs to be high-value and sustainable, in sectors and occupations that encourage the prosperity of the city and its residents. This technical report that follows represents a first step in that process. The report provides an overview of the city of London s recent performance against a range of demographic, social, and economic indicators and is intended to provoke thinking on the state of the city s competitive positioning. The report is meant to offer a baseline of data that will be further explored and refined through the development of the Economic Road Map, particularly through community engagement phases of the process. Ultimately, the report plays a key role in supporting the identification of local strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats, and the associated prioritization of economic opportunities to be pursued by the community. 4 Millier Dickinson Blais: City of London, Economic Roadmap Technical Report

5 1.1 Key observations The Technical Report highlights some of the key demographic, social, and economic trends that have occurred in London over the last decade, with the intent of offering insight into how these trends shape the eventual Economic Roadmap for the City and its economic and community development partners in the future. In completing the Technical Report, several key observations have emerged, as outlined below. Slower Population Growth, but Increasing Diversity London s population grew at a slower rate (3.9%) than the province (5.7%) between 2006 and 2011, but faster than a number of the province s other mid-sized cities like Hamilton, Waterloo, and Windsor. The city s population was comparatively younger, with London maintaining a comparatively lower median age among its total population than Ontario in However, it should be noted that the city s population in older age cohorts continues to grow, particularly those between 40 and 54 years old and those 80 and older, while the total share of population aged 25 to 39 continues to decline. Interprovincial migration has accounted for a notable share of migrant population growth in London, at 14.0% of the city s total internal (i.e. Canadian) migrants (compared to 11.8% across Ontario) between 2006 and Though London s immigrant population remains proportionally smaller than levels across Ontario and in other mid-sized cities (e.g. Hamilton, Kitchener, Waterloo, and Windsor), the city continues to see increasing levels of immigration bolstering its population growth and diversity, more in line with provincial averages. In particular, the city continues to attract new residents from Asia, Latin America, and South America. Labour Force Supply and Engagement Challenges London remains home to a number of post-secondary institutions and associated research and educational assets, which have supported the development of comparatively high educational attainment rates at the secondary school and college level. In particular, the city holds a strong share of workers educated in health, social and behavioural sciences, and education fields. Despite the presence of these institutions, the city continues to hold a lower share of workers with university-level credentials than the province and comparator mid-sized cities (e.g. Waterloo and Kingston). This suggests a more limited performance retaining workers educated in local post-secondary institutions. More generally though, it might also suggest emerging challenges in matching skill supply with demand, which may in part be contributing to several challenges in London. From an occupational perspective, the region s labour force is concentrated in lower skill level occupations, or those that require only high school, or job specific training to hold. The performance of the city on common labour force indicators varies. Recent unemployment and youth (i.e. those between 15 and 24 years old) unemployment levels in the city are generally on-par with the province. However, when compared to other mid-size cities in the province, London fall behind centres like Kitchener-Waterloo 5 Millier Dickinson Blais: City of London, Economic Roadmap Technical Report

6 and Hamilton for broader unemployment, and behind Hamilton, Kitchener-Waterloo, and Barrie for youth unemployment. In part, this continues to influence income levels within the city, which are generally lower than provincial levels, with the percentage of population in low income brackets in London higher than the province and most comparators. In particular, the share of population aged 18 years and younger in lower income brackets was well above provincial levels, and higher than all other comparators. Labour Force Growth Meeting Projected Employment London is expected to see job growth of approximately 19,650 new jobs from 2015 to 2025, after seeing an increase of 9,100 workers from 2011 to The majority of growth is expected over the 2015 to 2020 time period, with growth slowing over the final five years. This growth is expected in a range of sectors, with health care and social assistance; professional, scientific, and technical services; education; accommodation and food services; and construction generating the most notable gains. From a labour force supply perspective, a wide range of skills will be needed to meet this demand. Overall, London is expected to meet the demand for new workers based on existing demographic trends (i.e. aging of labour force) and net migration, the latter expected to be approximately 3,280 new residents per year from 2015 to Though trends suggest London will have the workforce to meet future demand, there is a continued need to ensure the city has the structures in place to both attract and retain this required workforce. Health and Education Driving Recent and Expected Growth Largely as a result of the institutions in the city, the health care and social assistance and educational sectors have driven labour force performance over the last decade. Together, the two sectors account for approximately 24% of the city s total labour force, having grown by 12.0% and 12.7% respectively from 2006 to Much of this is as a result of the city s large institutional base, with a notable portion of businesses in both sectors employing 100 or more employees. Further, the city s largest institutions like Western University, Fanshawe College, London Health Sciences Centre, and St. Joseph s Health Care have continued to lead in hiring activity over the past year, generating a total of 1,951 total job postings in those institutions alone in Complementing the public sector strengths in health care and social assistance, the city also has a notable presence in sectors like medical equipment and research and development in life sciences, generating activity in more export-oriented sectors of the economy. Both sectors are expected to account for notable shares of future employment growth in the city, with health care and social assistance expected to generate 2,400 new jobs in the city to 2025, and education expected to generate 1,500 jobs over the same time period. To 2025, jobs like registered nurses and teachers are expected to be in high demand across the city. 6 Millier Dickinson Blais: City of London, Economic Roadmap Technical Report

7 Overall, the performance of these two sectors suggests that London is well positioned to further develop its knowledge-based sectors of employment. However, given present levels of skill and educational attainment in the city, meeting demand in these sectors will likely be a continued area of activity in workforce development and attraction over the next decade. Key Manufacturing Subsectors Remain Resilient Much of the broader discourse on the manufacturing sector over the last several decades has focused on the continued restructuring of the industry, particularly in North America. London has not been immune to these challenges, losing an estimated 2,743 jobs in the sector between 2006 and 2011 alone; the most of any sector in London over that five-year period. However, the manufacturing sector remains a key element of the city s economy, particularly in more advanced and technology enabled subsectors of the economy. The sector continues to be a major employer (accommodating 9.7% of the city s labour force in 2011), and employment in many subsectors (e.g. food processing, transportation equipment and defence, medical equipment, and machinery manufacturing) exhibits high relative concentrations of employment (i.e. location quotients) compared to the province. Of the 24,525 unique job postings in London over 2014, 10.5% were in the manufacturing sector, noting that the local sector remains active in worker recruitment. Employment in the manufacturing sector is expected to continue declining to 2025, with the majority of industry subsectors expected to lose workers. However, despite broader challenges, the city s food, beverage, and machinery manufacturing subsectors are expected to maintain their current employment levels. Entrepreneurship and Small Businesses Supporting Growth Over the last five years, entrepreneurship and small business growth has been a notable contributor to business development in the city. Since 2008, the number of indeterminate businesses (i.e. self-employed) in the city increased by 14.0%, while businesses with one to four employees increased by 18.5%. Medium and large sized business segments grew as well, but at slower rates than their small business counterparts. Overall, self-employed business owners and small (i.e. one to four employee) businesses accounted for 96.5% of all business growth in the city from 2008 to The professional, scientific, and technical services sector holds a notable share of small business and entrepreneurial activity in the city. In 2014, 68.5% of the businesses in the sector were sole proprietors, while an additional 20.1% had fewer than five employees. The city s sector exhibits notable strengths in a number of traditional professional services, such as human resources consulting, lawyers, and tax preparation. More recently, the city has seen notable growth in emerging digital industries, particularly video game publishing and video game development. Overall, 7 Millier Dickinson Blais: City of London, Economic Roadmap Technical Report

8 the city maintains a strong base of knowledge-based activity in its small business and entrepreneurial sector. Residential Sector Outperforming Non-Residential Sector London has achieved moderate performance in building activity over the last five years compared to the rest of Ontario, based largely on 127% growth in residential construction values from 2009 to In contrast, the city s non-residential sector experienced a decline of 5.6% per year in construction value over the same time period, or a total decline of approximately 25.0%. Activity in the city s industrial sector, despite incentives like the lack of development charges and downward movement of industrial tax rates, declined by 10.4% overall, or an average annual decline of 2.2%. Tax revenues for the municipality have grown over the last five years, with London maintaining a stable split of revenue between residential and non-residential sectors as well. This builds on the growth of assessment in the city, which has generally increased in each of the last five years based on strong growth in residential and commercial sectors. However, it should be noted that the underperformance of the city relative to the province (i.e. lower comparative growth rates) and slight decline (0.02%) of industrial assessment suggests that London continues to struggle with the attraction of new investment in the non-residential sector both new development, and revitalization or renewal. Though a range of factors could be contributing to this, the lack of market choice in the industrial land inventory is likely one of the key factors, perhaps requiring a different approach by the municipality and its development partners. 1.2 Notes on data It should be noted that this report uses a wide variety of data to support the demographic and economic base analysis of London. Every effort has been made to ensure consistent geographies, time series, and recent data has been used. However, due to the nature of metropolitan and regional level data, some data is only available in census (i.e. 2001, 2006, and 2011) and National Household Survey (i.e. 2011) years, while other data is available on an annual basis, but to different levels of geography (i.e. census metropolitan area). In this case, data for both the city of London and London CMA have been used, in order to balance data currency with geographic relevancy. Several other custom data sets are used to offer additional insight beyond data collected from Statistics Canada. Labour force projections are provided by Strategic Projections Inc. (SPI). SPI specializes in assessing historical trends and in modeling the economic and demographic future of countries, provinces, states, metropolitan areas and individual communities, and in carrying out customized investigations of local area trends and prospects. In this case, labour force data was projected for the city of London. The report also leverages data from the Jobs Demand Report tool created by Vicinity Jobs Inc. The tool monitors online job postings within a specified 8 Millier Dickinson Blais: City of London, Economic Roadmap Technical Report

9 geography, and offers real-time intelligence on the actual demand for employees by industry and occupation. Again, data is offered for the city of London. The City would also like to acknowledge the contribution of the Ministry of Agriculture, Food, and Rural Affairs by granting access to the EMSI Analyst tool. EMSI Analyst is provided by Economic Modeling Specialists Intl. This firm specializes in providing labour market information to demonstrate the connection between economies, people, and work. Their database draws on a variety of sources including the Canadian Census, Labour Market Survey, and Survey of Employment, Payroll, and Hours. Please note that the views expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect those of the Ministry. 9 Millier Dickinson Blais: City of London, Economic Roadmap Technical Report

10 2 Demographic Trend Analysis 2.1 Population Between 2006 and 2011 the population of Ontario increased by 5.7% from million to million residents. In comparison, the city of London s population grew at a slower rate of 3.9% from 352,295 in 2006 to 366,151 in Although the city of London has not kept pace with the growth of the province over the last five years, it did exceed the growth of comparable cities like Hamilton, Waterloo, and Windsor. 1 The city of London did, however, have a population with a lower median age of 39.3 years, in comparison to median age of Ontario at FIGURE 1: POPULATION BY AGE AND GENDER, ONTARIO AND LONDON, 2011 Source: Statistics Canada Census. Community Profiles. Adapted by Millier Dickinson Blais Inc. As Figure 1 demonstrates, both the province of Ontario and the city of London have an aging population, with a significant percentage of the population between 40 to 54 years ages (representing 46.5% and 44.0% of total population, respectively). The city also has a smaller percentage of its residents aged 25 to 39 (35.1%) despite its younger median age, when compared to the province (38.3%). This could indicate that the city may be having difficulty attracting and retaining young workers, but particularly retaining the graduates of its post-secondary institutions. Further, London also has a slightly higher percentage of its population aged 80 and above representing 8.7% of the population versus 8.0% for the province. This older demographic, in the future, could have implications on the delivery of services that are 1 Please see Appendix I for further details regarding comparator cities. 2 Statistics Canada, National Household Survey, Community Profile, Millier Dickinson Blais: City of London, Economic Roadmap Technical Report

11 often required by greying communities. In order to address this challenge the City implemented a three year age-friendly action plan that identified 75 action items to help make the city more accommodating to older residents. 2.2 Migration and Immigration In 2011, 84.9% of the population in London had not moved and had lived in the same residence in the city over the course of the year, while 15.1% of residents had moved within, or to, London. In comparison, provincial migration was more stable with 88.4% of population having lived at the same residence and 11.6% having moved residences. However, when looking at interprovincial migration, residents who relocated from another province to the city of London in 2011 accounted for 14.0% all internal migrants (residents who moved to a different city, town, township, village, or Indian reserve within Canada). In comparison, interprovincial migrants accounted for 11.8% of all internal migrants in Ontario. Over a five year time period, from 2006 to 2011, interprovincial migrants accounted for 13.9% of internal migrants moving to the city compared to Ontario at 11.7%. This could indicate a competitive advantage for the city of London in its ability to attract residents from other communities across Canada, outside of Ontario, rather than from other areas in Ontario. When considering immigration from outside of Canada, the city of London has a proportionally smaller resident immigrant population than the province, with immigrants accounting for 21.2% of the total population in London versus an immigrant population for the province of 28.5%. London s immigrant population was also smaller than other comparable cities such as Hamilton, Kitchener, Waterloo, and Windsor. However, more recent immigration trends indicate that London is increasingly becoming a destination for new immigrants. Immigrants who moved to London from 2001 to 2011 represent 27.7% of the immigrant population in the city. In comparison, recent immigrants to Ontario during the same time period account for 28.2% of the total immigrant population of Ontario. This indicates that the city is increasingly becoming a destination of choice for new immigrants to the province. Historically, Europe has been the primary source of immigrants to both London and Ontario. Although immigrants from Europe comprised 45.8% of all immigrants in London they represented only 11.4% of immigrants since Recent trends in immigration indicate that London, and Ontario, are increasingly seeing immigrants from Asia and the Americas rather than from countries in Europe. Between 2006 and 2011, 32.3% of recent immigrants in London arrived from countries in North or South America, with Colombia representing the largest number of all recent immigrants (17.4%). Between 2006 and 2011, 46.7% of recent immigrants arrived from Asia. In 2011, 16.1% of the city of London s population were comprised of visible minorities, well above other large cities such as Hamilton, Kingston, and Barrie, but below the province at 25.9%. The data suggests that the recent increase of immigration from non-european countries has the potential to support the development of a vibrant city that is more culturally and ethnically diverse. 11 Millier Dickinson Blais: City of London, Economic Roadmap Technical Report

12 2.3 Educational Attainment The development and analysis of London s educational profile can be an important socio-economic indicator as it reveals the city s ability to staff new and existing businesses. In 2011, 9.8% of London s labour force between the ages of 25 and 64 had no certificate, diploma, or degree, a share much lower than the province of Ontario at 11.0% of the working-age population. The city also had 26.6% of the labour force with a College or other non-university certificate or diploma compared to Ontario at 23.6%. However, London had a slightly lower portion of its population with an apprenticeship or trades at 7.3% of the workforce compared to 7.8% provincially. The city also had a proportionally smaller share of total workforce with university-level education than the province in 2011, at 31.7% and 33.4%, respectively. This could indicate London is having difficulty attracting and retaining talent with university-level credentials, despite being home to one of the larger universities in the province. FIGURE 2: POPULATION BY EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT, AGED 25 TO 64, 2011 Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey, In addition to analyzing the workforce by education, the population of London was also examined by major field of study to better understand the skills that are available within the local economy. The largest proportion of London s population with post-secondary credentials studied business, management, and public administration followed by architecture, natural resources, and conservation and health and related fields, representing 30.5% of the city s population in total. It is interesting to note that London had a significantly higher proportion of the population having studied health and related fields at 9.7% in comparison to the province at 7.6%. This serves to highlight the role that the labour force plays in supporting the city s role as a regional health centre for the surrounding communities. The city of London is home to a number of facilities such as Robarts Research Institute, the Canadian Surgical Technologies and Advanced Robotics Centre, and the London Regional Cancer Program that represent only a portion of the health and life sciences sector. 12 Millier Dickinson Blais: City of London, Economic Roadmap Technical Report

13 FIGURE 3: EDUCATION BY MAJOR FIELD OF STUDY, 2011 Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey, Income Between 2006 and 2011 the city of London had a smaller percentage change in both personal and household income than the province. In 2006 the median personal income of London was $27,275 and was marginally higher than the Provincial median income of $27,258. However, by 2011 the median personal income of the province increased by 12.0% to $30,526, while the median personal income of London increased by just 8.1% to $29,478. A similar pattern can also be seen in the median household income for London and the province as well. In 2006 the median household income for the city and the province were $53,684 and $60,455, respectively. By 2011 median household incomes across the province rose to $66,358, an increase of 9.8%, and the city of London experienced a smaller increase of just 4.8%, to $56,241. In both instances, the growth of personal and household incomes in the city of London has not kept pace with province. London s median household income was also amongst the lowest when compared to other medium-sized cities in Ontario, with both Waterloo and Barrie having higher median household incomes of $77,626 and 69,471, respectively, and only Windsor having a lower household income at $49, It should be noted, however, that the median price for a single or semi-detached home in London was also lower at $370,000 in In comparison, the median house price provincially was $495,000 3 Statistics Canada, National Household Survey, Millier Dickinson Blais: City of London, Economic Roadmap Technical Report

14 and when compared to other large cities in Ontario, only Windsor and Kingston had lower median housing prices at $340,000 and $300,000, respectively. 4 This suggests that the lower median household incomes in London maybe a result of the lower costs of living when compared to other similarly sized cities. The distribution of total income of the population of 2011 in London was comparable to the province across the majority of income brackets. However, the province does have a slightly higher concentration (6.0%) of the population with incomes above $100,000 than London at 4.7%. There was a larger discrepancy between the jurisdictions when the distribution of total household income between London and Ontario was examined. FIGURE 4: TOTAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME OF PRIVATE HOUSEHOLDS, 2011 Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey, The income distribution of households in London, in comparison to Ontario, shows that the city holds a slightly higher percentage of households in lower income brackets. Figure 4 indicates that 24.3% of households in London have incomes below $29,999 and only 19.7% of households in Ontario have similarly low incomes. It is also important to note that Ontario has a larger proportion of households (29.5%) with incomes over $100,000. In comparison, London has 22.9% of households with incomes over $100,000. This disparity in income levels could be due to several factors such as education, nature of employment, labour force characteristics, or the potentially lower cost of living. The result of this income disparity is that there is a greater prevalence of low income individuals in London than the province. Overall, 16.7% of the population of London is considered low income based on after-tax low-income measures. 5 In comparison, 13.9% of Ontario s population is considered to be low income and only Windsor has a higher prevalence of low income households at 23.7% than London among comparator 4 Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Median Price for Absorbed Homeowner and Condominum Units, Statistics Canada, National Household Survey, Low income measures (LIMs), are relative measures of low income, set at 50% of adjusted median household income. These measures are categorized according to the number of persons present in the household, reflecting the economies of scale inherent in household size. 14 Millier Dickinson Blais: City of London, Economic Roadmap Technical Report

15 communities. All other comparably large cities in Ontario had a smaller percentage of their population in low income households. London also has the greatest percentage of the population aged 18 and younger that is living in low income, at 20.9% of lowincome population compared to 17.3% across Ontario. As a result, the city of London should consider how it might better assist all members of the community in order to better support the economic growth of the city and prosperity for all of its residents, including addressing issues of population segments that are not traditionally engaged in an economic development strategy (e.g. youth). 15 Millier Dickinson Blais: City of London, Economic Roadmap Technical Report

16 3 Labour Force and Employment 3.1 Labour Force Characteristics London s total labour force in 2011 was 216,293, which was an increase of 4.0% from 207,947 in This is generally comparable with the Provincial growth rate of 4.4% over the same time period. 6 Further, the unemployment rate for the London CMA in 2014 was 7.6%, only slightly higher than the provincial rate of 7.3%. However, labour force characteristics in London have differed considerably from those in comparator communities. London s unemployment rate was higher than many comparator areas with Hamilton having the lowest unemployment rate at 5.9% and Kingston and the Kitchener-Waterloo areas having relatively low rates of 6.8% and 6.6%, respectively. When comparing the unemployment rate of 15 to 24 year olds London had the third highest rate of youth unemployment at 15.7%. Only Kingston and Windsor had higher rates of youth unemployment at 16.0% and 16.5%, respectively. This could suggest a potential skills gap between the needs of employers versus what is available in the local labour force, as well as other potential barriers to engaging high priority demographic segments like youth in the labour force. 3.2 Labour Force by Industry Sector and Subsector An examination of the labour force by industry sector and subsector for London and Ontario provides a better understanding of how the local economy differs from the province. The three leading sectors of employment for both the city of London and the province of Ontario s labour force were the health care and social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing sectors, which employed 14.4%, 11.0%, and 9.7% of the city s work force, respectively. In comparison, 10.2% of the province s work force was employed in health care and social assistance, and 10.8% and 10.0% of the workforce were employed in the retail trade and manufacturing sectors, respectively. 6 EMSI Analyst, Total Labour Force, 2006 and Millier Dickinson Blais: City of London, Economic Roadmap Technical Report

17 FIGURE 5: CLASS OF WORKER BY SECTOR LONDON AND ONTARIO BY PERCENTAGE, 2011 Source: EMSI ANALYST, National Household Survey, These three sectors combined represented over one in three jobs in London, making them significant local economic drivers. The health care and social assistance and educational services sectors also employed a significantly higher portion of the labour force in London when compared to Ontario. The relative strength of these two sectors in London resulted in other sectors lagging behind provincial averages in terms labour force proportions. Despite London being a large urban centre in Southwestern Ontario there were some notable sectors where the city trailed behind Ontario, such as professional, scientific, and technical services (5.5%), public administration (4.5%), and agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting (0.3%). It should be noted that the educational services sector in London employed 20,036 people in This is to be expected with the city being home to three post-secondary institutions with Western University (which has three affiliated colleges), Fanshawe College, and College Boreal. 17 Millier Dickinson Blais: City of London, Economic Roadmap Technical Report

18 FIGURE 6: LOCAL LABOUR FORCE BY 2-DIGIT NAICS INDUSTRY, LONDON, 2006 AND 2011 Source: EMSI Analyst, Census and National Household Survey, 2006 and Between 2006 and 2011 there have been significant changes that have affected the labour force employed by industry. During this time period London has continued to move towards a more service and knowledge-based economy. This is supported by the growth of the accommodation and food services; and arts, entertainment, and recreation sectors by 20.0% and 39.1%, respectively. Knowledge workers are also in demand in health care and social assistance and educational services sectors, which also grew by 12.0% and 12.7%, respectively. The most notable decline has been in the manufacturing sector, which although remains a major sector of employment, experienced a decline of employment of 11.6% resulting in 2,743 job losses in the city, followed by other services 7, which declined by 11.5%, resulting in 1,145 local job losses. There have also been noticeable job losses in the retail and wholesale trade sectors as well with declines of 3.8% and 5.8%, respectively. 7 This sector comprises establishments primarily engaged in repairing, or performing general or routine maintenance, on motor vehicles, machinery, equipment and other products to ensure that they work efficiently; providing personal care services, funeral services, laundry services and other services to individuals, such as pet care services and photo finishing services; organizing and promoting religious activities; supporting various causes through grant-making, advocating (promoting) various social and political causes, and promoting and defending the interests of their members. 18 Millier Dickinson Blais: City of London, Economic Roadmap Technical Report

19 The figure below clearly demonstrates London has key strengths in both the health sector and educational services sector, as noted above. In 2011, 11,987 workers were employed in general medical and surgical hospitals, 8,628 and 7,414 workers were employed in universities and elementary and secondary schools, respectively. Despite this high employment in subsectors that are known for being high-skill and high-wage industries, the largest subsector by employment was full-service restaurants and limited-service eating places, which employed 13,022 workers. FIGURE 7: LOCAL LABOUR FORCE BY 4-DIGIT NAICS INDUSTRY, LONDON, 2011 Source: EMSI Analyst, National Household Survey, Job Demand by Industry The real-time Jobs Demand Report s intelligence gathering system developed by Vicinity Jobs Inc. allows for ongoing monitoring of online job postings within a specified geography. This technology allows for the extraction of important information about each online job posting. For example, job postings can be categorized by industry. This section reports on the job postings data collected by the system during The figure below shows the absolute number of job postings, per month, during this period. This data has not been adjusted for seasonality, but still sheds light on local hiring trends. 19 Millier Dickinson Blais: City of London, Economic Roadmap Technical Report

20 FIGURE 8: TOTAL JOB POSITINGS BY MONTH FOR LONDON, ,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 Source. Vicinity Jobs Regional hiring demand reporting London, On. Adapted by Millier Dickinson Blais Inc. During 2014 a total of 24,525 unique job postings were advertised for positions in London. Note the Jobs Demand Reporting System has been designed to remove duplicate postings for the purposes of reporting, hence the term unique when describing these postings. The figure below shows the proportion of these job postings by industry as defined by the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS). 20 Millier Dickinson Blais: City of London, Economic Roadmap Technical Report

21 FIGURE 9: PROPORTION OF JOB POSTINGS BY INDUSTRY FOR LONDON, Educational Services 44 - Retail Trade 62 - Health Care and Social Assistance 54 - Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 31 - Manufacturing 56 - Administrative and Support, Waste 91 - Public Administration 51 - Information and Cultural Industries 23 - Construction 52 - Finance and Insurance 41 - Wholesale Trade 53 - Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 48 - Transportation and Warehousing 72 - Accommodation and Food Services 81 - Other Services (except Public Administration) 71 - Arts, Entertainment and Recreation 22 - Utilities 49 - Transportation and Warehousing 11 - Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 55 - Management of Companies and Enterprises 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Source. Vicinity Jobs Regional hiring demand reporting London, On. Adapted by Millier Dickinson Blais Inc. The job postings data for 2014 reinforce the industry trends described in the previous section of the report. In 2014, the top four industries by job demand were all serviceproducing. As shown in Figure 9, these industries include: Educational services (13%) Retail trade (12.3%) Health care and social services (11.4%) Professional, scientific and technical services (11.3%) Despite this proportion of service based job demand, the manufacturing sector still accounted for a notable share of local job postings (10.5%). This finding is significant given the number of net job losses for this sector during the 2006 and 2011 census period. The 2014 job posting data may suggest London s manufacturing sector is still active in worker recruitment, despite broader challenges. In other words, employers in this sector are still actively hiring new workers to either replace retirees or staff new positions. 21 Millier Dickinson Blais: City of London, Economic Roadmap Technical Report

22 3.2.2 Forecasted Labour Force Growth by Industry Between 2015 and 2020 London is projected to see employment in the city increase by just over 12,300, but it is then expected to slow between 2020 and 2025 to 7,350. In comparison the city s population increased by about 12,450 between 2001 and 2006, but by only 1,100 jobs between 2006 and 2011 due largely to the recession. Over the four year time period from 2011 to 2015 it is estimated that approximately 9,100 workers will have been added to the local economy. 8 The largest gains by industry between 2015 and 2020 are expected to be in health care and social services adding approximately 2,400 jobs, followed by professional, scientific, and technical services (2,200), education (1,500), accommodation and food (1,350), and construction (1,200). These five industries are expected to continue as the major job producers between 2020 and 2025, though the order of importance is expected to change slightly and the pace of growth is expected to slow. Employment in manufacturing is expected to continue to decline into the future as well. Manufacturing production is expected to increase, but because productivity growth (output per worker) is expected to remain high and to grow even further in the future, jobs will continue decline as has been experienced in the recent past. This is a trend that is not only affecting the city of London, but provincially, and across the rest of Canada. Manufacturing is no longer the employment and population growth driver for communities it was through most of the post war period. Every industry within manufacturing is expected to employ fewer people in 2025 than are currently employed in 2015 with the exception of manufacturers of food products, beverage and tobacco products, and machinery, all of which are expected to maintain currently employment levels through to Strategic Projections Inc. (SPI) is the firm responsible for the development of all of the labour market projections presented in this report. SPI specializes in assessing historical trends and in modeling the economic and demographic future of countries, provinces, states, metropolitan areas and individual communities, and in carrying out customized investigations of local area trends and prospects. 22 Millier Dickinson Blais: City of London, Economic Roadmap Technical Report

23 FIGURE 10: FORECASTED JOB GROWTH BY INDUSTRY, 2011 AND 2025 Source: SPI, Labour Force Projections 2011 to 2025, based on the National Household Survey, Labour Force by Occupation Examining a community s labour force by its occupational category is far more instructive than by industrial category, when looking to identify concentrations of skill in a local economy. The city of London s largest occupational category, as measured by workers over the age of 15, was in sales and service occupations, which accounted for 24.2% of all jobs in 2006 and had increased to 26.5% of all occupations by This is a similar trend that occurred across Ontario with sales and service occupations representing 22.9% of all occupations in 2006 and increasing to 23.2% of all occupations in London s second largest occupational category was in business, finance, and administration, which had declined from 16.7% in 2006 to 15.9% of all occupations in Occupations in education, law and social, community, and government services also increased from 13.0% to 13.6% between 2006 and 2011 to become London s third largest occupational category. 23 Millier Dickinson Blais: City of London, Economic Roadmap Technical Report

24 FIGURE 11: EMPLOYED LABOUR FORCE BY OCCUPATION, LONDON AND ONTAIRO, 2006 AND 2011 Source: Statistics Canada National Household Survey Census Profile. Health occupations have remained a competitive advantage for the city of London when compared to the province representing a growing sector of employment from 7.2% of all occupations in 2006 to 7.7% in Ontario as a whole employs a smaller, but growing percentage of health occupations as well accounting for 5.3% in 2006 and increasing to 5.9% by 2011 of all occupations in the province. One area of concern, however, is the growing over representation of sales and service occupations in the local economy. Between 2006 and 2011 sales and service occupations increased by 11.1% adding 5,036 workers to the local economy. In comparison, sales and service occupations only grew by 4.4% across the province. Part of this growth can be attributed to the position of the city of London as a growing urban centre and the need to provide services to the resident population. As the chart above demonstrates, the occupational composition of London s labour force is similar to trends that occur at the provincial level. An analysis of the top occupations by employment at the four-digit level provides greater insight into the regional strengths, and weaknesses, of the city. 24 Millier Dickinson Blais: City of London, Economic Roadmap Technical Report

25 FIGURE 12: TOTAL OCCUPATION BY WORKER WITH EMPLOYMENT INCOME, 2011 Top Occupations by Percentage of Total Employment 23.4% 6421 Retail salespersons 17.1% 6711 Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related support occupations 12.7% 3012 Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses 12.2% 6611 Cashiers 11.3% 0621 Retail and wholesale trade managers 7.3% 6552 Other customer and information services representatives 5.8% 4032 Elementary school and kindergarten teachers 5.5% 1241 Administrative assistants 5.3% 6731 Light duty cleaners 5.2% 9522 Motor vehicle assemblers, inspectors and testers 5.0% 1411 General office support workers 4.8% 4012 Post-secondary teaching and research assistants Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey, X , The above occupations represented 25.1% of all occupations in London, with four of the top five occupational classifications being some type of sales and services type position. The inclusion of health, education, and manufacturing related occupations serves to highlight the importance of these industries to the local economy London Jobs Postings by Occupation As described in the jobs demand by industry section above, the real-time Jobs Demand Reporting System allows for ongoing monitoring of online job postings within a specified geography. In this case, the system is being used to determine the number of job postings within London according to the National Occupational Classification system (NOC). This section reports on the job postings data collected by the system during Figure 13 shows the proportion of job postings by one digit occupational groupings. The data highlights the number of job postings tied to sales and service occupations. These jobs account for 27% of all job postings in London in This finding is consistent with the proportion of employment as measured by the 2011 National Household Survey as described in the previous section of this report. 25 Millier Dickinson Blais: City of London, Economic Roadmap Technical Report

26 FIGURE 13: JOB POSTINGS BY OCCUPATION CATEGORY (1-DIGIT NOC), LONDON, Management occupations 1 - Business, finance and administration occupations 13% 14% 2 - Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 3 - Health occupations 4 - Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services 7% 8% 9% 5 - Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 3% 6 - Sales and service occupations 27% 7 - Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 14% 8 - Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations 1% 9 - Occupations in manufacturing and utilities 4% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Source. Vicinity Jobs Regional hiring demand reporting London, On. Adapted by Millier Dickinson Blais Inc. Beyond sales related positions, Figure 13 also shows the relatively strong hiring demand for management, business, finance and administration, and trades, transport and equipment occupations. Each of these occupational groupings separately accounted for at least 13% of the job postings. These proportions generally align with London s employed labour force as measured by the 2011 National Household Survey. One exception to this is the management occupational category. The job postings data show greater hiring activity in this occupational category than one might expect given the proportion of London s labour force employed in this area. Moving to a more granular level of occupational analysis, the figure below shows the top 10 occupations in London by their 2014 hiring demand, as measured by job postings. These occupations reflect London s large sales and service industries (e.g. retail trade). Six of the top ten occupations on this list directly fulfill a sales or service related function. The inclusion of health, education, and transportation serves to underscore the employment demand in those sectors of the local economy. 26 Millier Dickinson Blais: City of London, Economic Roadmap Technical Report

27 FIGURE 14: TOP 10 JOB POSTINGS BY OCCUPATION CATEGORY (4-DIGIT NOC), LONDON, 2014 Occupation by NOC # of job postings % of total Other customer and information services representatives % Retail and wholesale trade managers % Sales and account representatives - wholesale trade (non-technical) % Other sales related occupations % Retail salespersons % 4030 Teachers % Transport truck drivers % Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses % Financial sales representatives % Computer and information systems managers % Source. Vicinity Jobs Regional hiring demand reporting London, On. Adapted by Millier Dickinson Blais Inc Forecasted Labour Force Growth by Occupation The demand for workers by industry can be viewed as the growth in jobs that will occur due to changes in the industrial size and industrial mix of employment. The age distribution of current jobs varies across occupations. For example, the proportion of bus drivers aged 50 and over is quite high while the proportion of food and beverage servers over 50 is quite low. As workers retire they will need to be replaced by younger workers and as need for replacement workers varies across occupations those held by relatively older workers will face higher rates of replacement demand than those held by relatively younger workers. Therefore the total demand for workers by occupation over the next five to ten years reflects both the need for new workers stemming from a growing and shifting economy, and the need for new workers stemming from the need to replace retirees. The figure below lists the top 15 occupations (out of a total of 500) based on the total demand both economic and replacement projected for each over the span from 2015 to The estimates for 2015 and future projections for each year through to 2025 are based on the employment by industry projections described above and on the occupational mix of jobs in each industry as of 2011 according to the National Household Survey. 27 Millier Dickinson Blais: City of London, Economic Roadmap Technical Report