Planning for Climate Change in the City of Tucson. Leslie Ethen City of Tucson Office of Conservation and Sustainable Development
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1 Planning for Climate Change in the City of Tucson Leslie Ethen City of Tucson Office of Conservation and Sustainable Development
2 City of Tucson Policy 2008 Framework for Advancing Sustainability 2009 Climate Change Committee *NEW* General/Sustainability Plan Goal: A community that is resilient and adaptive to climate change. Policies: Assess and prepare for the effects of climate change on City infrastructure, facilities, and operations. Assess and address the vulnerability of the community s health and safety, economy, and natural resources to climate change, and develop assurances that vulnerable and disadvantaged populations are not disproportionately impacted by climate change.
3 Along the Way 2010: formed Western Adaptation Alliance 2012 Climate Academy 2013 Climate Academy : Downscaled data, vulnerability assessment 2012: Power to Prepare Tucson 2013: working with Federal agencies Summer 2013: Climate Adaptation Report Fall 2013: Regional Summit
4 Hotter, Drier, So What? Temperature and precipitation changes are drivers Need to look at actual impacts (many are interrelated) Trends are important, but extremes equally/more so Annual trends can hide significant temporal variability Climate change exacerbates existing risks, problems Are we equipped to handle greater variability? Existing stress (heat, drought) + long-term trends + interrelated impacts + new extremes = We have problems!
5 What is Climate Vulnerability? Vulnerability = (Exposure * Sensitivity) - Adaptive Capacity Exposure = Science Sensitivity = We live in a desert Adaptive Capacity = We have a poor community
6 Assessing Climate Vulnerability Climate Change Drivers More Extreme Heat Events Exposure Secondary Impacts Stress on Health Increased ground level ozone Changing disease vectors Increased temperature in homes
7 Extremes and Temporal Variability Winter Precip % Diff from
8 Extremes and Temporal Variability more days per year 25 more days per year
9 Sensitivity to Climate Change Stress on Health Increased ground level ozone Changing disease vectors Increased temperatures in homes Sensitivity Very old, very young; People outdoors a lot People with respiratory disease; outdoors a lot People outdoors a lot; very old People with energy inefficient homes; only swamp coolers
10 Adaptation Strategies
11 Identifying Consequences Sensitivity Very old, very young; People outdoors a lot People with respiratory disease; outdoors a lot People outdoors a lot; very old People with energy inefficient homes; only swamp coolers Climate Vulnerability Increased illness and death; increased health care and insurance costs Result of limited adaptive capacity Increased AC use
12 Adaptation Strategies Increased illness and death; increased health care and insurance costs Increased AC use Adaptive Strategies/ Capacity More accessible healthcare; Better education about avoiding heat risks; Cooling centers; Higher building energy efficiency standards; Retrofitting homes to be more efficient; Stronger social networks; Heat warning systems; Plant more trees Increase wages to afford increased energy needs; Move away from Tucson;
13 Next Steps Watch for City Climate Adaptation Report Encourage elected officials, senior staff to attend Summit Regional dialogue? Evaluate your own plans for climate vulnerability: Emergency Management Land Use Codes, Building Codes Water Supply, Drought Plans Health Planning Stormwater Planning Capital Planning
14 Questions? More accessible healthcare; Better education about avoiding heat risks; Cooling centers; Higher building energy efficiency standards; Retrofitting homes to be more efficient; Stronger social networks; Heat warning systems; Plant more trees Leslie Ethen
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