National Indicator 188 Planning to adapt to climate change

Transcription

1 National Indicator 188 Planning to adapt to climate change Level 2: Climate change risk assessment of the Sustainable Community Strategy aims for Northamptonshire Sophie Lawrence and Jonathan Newton March 2010

2 Contents 1. Introduction 2. Climate change projections 3. Conclusion Appendix 1. Principal climate change related risks posed to the Sustainable Community Strategy objectives Appendix 2. Detail of Sustainable Community Strategy objectives used to identify potential climate change risks

3 1. Introduction National Indicator 188 (NI188) Planning to Adapt to Climate Change is a Local Area Agreement target indicator for Northamptonshire. The aim of NI188 is to embed the management of climate risks and opportunities across the local authority and partners services and to take appropriate adaptive actions where required. There are five levels of NI 188, summarised below. Level 0 Getting started Level 1 Public commitment and completed Local Climate Impacts Profile Level 2 Comprehensive risk assessment of climate change on council services and encourage the Local Strategic Partnership (LSP) to identify major weather and climate vulnerabilities and opportunities that affect the delivery of the LSP s objectives Level 3 Comprehensive adaptation action plan Level 4 Implementation, monitoring and continuous review of action plan. The NI 188 target for the Northamptonshire LAA is to achieve: Level ONE in (achieved) Level TWO in (achieved) Level THREE in Level FOUR in Building on the success of last years regional project which enabled the Northamptonshire Partnership to achieve its NI 188 Level ONE target, the Climate East Midlands regional partnership has again taken a collaborate approach towards reaching Level TWO. The work has been undertaken by two Northamptonshire Climate Adaptation Project Officers (CAPOs) mainly funded by East Midlands Improvement and Efficiency Partnership with a contribution from the County Council As part of achieving Level TWO, the following report highlights the key risks associated with climate change and how they may affect the delivery of the Northamptonshire Sustainable Community Strategy objectives.

4 2. Climate change projections Every objective within the Sustainable Community Strategy (SCS) will be directly or indirectly affected by climate change in the future. In order to identify the key risks for the SCS objectives, UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) have been used which project the following key impacts in the East Midlands. The broad findings of UKCP09 projections are detailed below: 1. Warmer, drier summers - increased heat waves and drought 2. Milder, wetter winters increased flooding 3. Increasing extreme weather events and indirect impacts of climate change. There are more detailed projections for the East Midlands in 2020, 2050 and 2080, available from the UKCP09 website: The tables in Appendix 1 identify the key risks of climate change to each objective of the Sustainable Community Strategy for Northamptonshire that may affect the delivery of the objectives in the future. 3. Conclusion The findings of this report detail the potential impacts of climate change on the Sustainable Community Strategy and have enabled the priority risks for Northamptonshire to be identified. There are a number of generic impacts that affect every objective within the strategy such as damage to health and infrastructure in higher summer temperatures and disruption due to flooding. Adaptation to risks such as these is therefore of critical importance in order to ensure business continuity in the future. This report provides a greater understanding of specific risks which are likely to affect the aims of the strategy financially and logistically. Decisions made in the Sustainable Community Strategy must be sustainable, taking into account challenges such as: - Living within environmental limits - Achieving an economy that grows steadily - Promoting good governance - Creating a strong, healthy and fair society In order to continue working towards the SCS objectives effectively, climate change projections must be taken into consideration. It must be noted that the risks provided in this report are not exhaustive and merely highlight the key risks to each objective of the strategy. The NI188 Level 3 project will help identify best practice of climate change adaptation measures on a national basis, which will help inform the development of adaptation plans for Northamptonshire.

5 Appendix 1: Principal climate change related risks posed to the Sustainable Community Strategy objectives Sustainable Community Strategy aims Principal climate risks 1. To be successful through sustainable growth and regeneration Residents live in housing that is sustainable, affordable and of good quality. We have the right infrastructure such as roads and health service provision to deal with new growth. Increased flooding and contamination - need for effective drainage and flood protection. Overheating of building sites/ residences need to provide shaded areas / courtyards in new developments New materials / technology if buildings are over insulated may suffer in summer temperatures Waste management affected by flood events / high winds / pests in summer temperatures New infrastructure may be at risk of flooding must account for the risks of climate change Water management problems in drought conditions Building subsidence in higher summer temperatures Energy bills reduced in milder winters Opportunity to develop eco-housing and install renewable technologies Damage to transport infrastructure eg. melting/ flooding roads / buckling railways. New infrastructure must take into account increased population, congestion and climate risks. Dehydration in heat waves / increased legionella / water and vector-borne diseases pressure on health care. Heat stress of workers / public. Need to provide shaded areas along cycle paths/ bus stops. Risk of flooding. Use permeable surfaces and sustainable urban drainage systems to reduce risk. Urban heat island effect warmer in town centres need to plant more trees in town centres for shade / carbon sink. Heritage at risk of flooding in winter and subsidence in drought conditions. Need to increase maintenance and inspections. Working conditions may be unfavourable / hazardous as temperatures within buildings and in the outdoor working environment become increasingly high reduced productivity Damage to highways and transport infrastructure by prolonged high temperatures (melting surfaces and bridge expansion) Need to provide home and care for large numbers of

6 We can improve and preserve buildings and the countryside for future generations potential climate change refugees from counties at risk of sea level rise and overseas areas suffering prolonged drought. Health risks from water stress / contamination. Residents unable to access drinking water in their own homes Opportunity to provide rainwater harvesting systems and save money on water bills Decreased biodiversity due to invasive species / pests Building subsidence in higher summer temperatures Waste management affected by flood events / high winds / pests in summer temperatures Sustainable building must take into account flood plains / subsidence issues and incorporate shaded areas Public at risk of overheating on public transport. Need to install air conditioning. Increase in length of growing season, plants flowering earlier and changing migration patterns Increased pressure to air condition buildings / transport may make carbon reduction targets more difficult Green spaces affected by drought need to plant drought tolerant species Opportunity to provide rainwater harvesting systems and save money on water bills Increased visitors to outdoor venues- increasing revenues which can be used for improvement of the countryside Sustainable Community Strategy aims Principal climate risks 2. To develop through having a growing economy with more skilled jobs We encourage and support employers to create the right number, quality and distribution of jobs. Restaurants / hotels may be affected by increased food poisoning in higher temperatures Landscapes are affected by drought need to plant drought tolerant species Poorer river water quality due to toxins produced by the algal bloom affecting aquatic life and human health if in contact with the contaminated water/algae Pressure on existing green/open space Increased fire risk to landscapes due to heat waves and increasing social disorder Cultural landscape of Northamptonshire at risk if species invasions take place and native species are lost in

7 warmer temperatures. Workers have the right skills to respond to the employment needs of a dynamic economy. Residents have the opportunity to learn throughout their lives. Increased number of green jobs due to boom in low carbon industries Increased outdoor lifestyle creating a cafe culture with associated job opportunities Increased potential for diversification of agriculture into new crops eg. vineyards / olive trees Indirect risks such as inability to access facilities due to flooded buildings / staff and students unable to get to training centres due to melting / flooding roads Flooded / subsided buildings leading to closures of education centres Ageing population may find it harder to work in higher summer temperatures Sustainable Community Strategy aims Principal climate risks 3. To have safe and strong communities Residents have a shared identity and are involved in developing their communities. Landscapes change due to pests / invasive species leading to reduced cultural value of landscape Outdoor recreation areas at risk of flooding / drought conditions in summer Increased amount of visitors and subsequent income for country parks Increased fire risk to landscapes due to heatwaves and increasing social disorder Increased severity/spread of viruses and disease Increase / vector and water borne diseases / food poisoning Increased potential for community activities eg. home growing food / sports events in higher temperatures Improved health due to more opportunities for outdoor recreation We will work to reduce crime in all our neighbourhoods Increased summer temperatures leading to more youths outdoors / increased alcohol/drug consumption and crime Increased road accidents in intense rainfall eg. aquaplaning / strandings in floods Increase in crime rates as warmer weather results in windows and doors being left open

8 Increase in arson attacks Increase in urban temperatures linked to episodes of civil disturbance We will provide services that people need Roads become impassable due to flooding difficulty in supplies / staff Buildings may overheat leading to staff absences/ poor service delivery Demand for adult social care services as vulnerable people struggle to cope with heat stress (increased admittance into care homes / increased use of home care services) Damaged to infrastructure e.g. highways and transport infrastructure by prolonged high temperatures (melting surfaces and bridge expansion) Lower summer rainfall leading to water shortages Disruption on the highways network as fallen trees block roads and airborne debris make driving conditions hazardous Loss of power and communication, disruption to the transport network and risk of injury or death from falling infrastructure, electrocution or loss of power in cold weather Sustainable Community Strategy aims Principal climate risks 4. To have healthy people who enjoy a good quality of life. Supports vulnerable people to help them lead fulfilling lives Help young people to have the best possible preparation to become adults Heatstroke / dehydration severely affect vulnerable people health risks Flooding affects access to vulnerable people in their own homes Risks to medical and care facilities electrical equipment during extreme weather Increase in skin cancers/ melanomas, sun burn and eye damage (cataracts) with higher summer temperatures Health risks from water stress / contamination. Residents unable to access drinking water in their own homes Improved wellbeing due to increased outdoor lifestyle in warmer temperatures Schools may have to be closed due to flooding, intense heat, lack of water and power loss Health and safety risks of children outside in very high summer temperatures. Predicted increase in skin cancers/ melanomas, sun burn and eye damage (cataracts)

9 Residents will have more choice to improve their health and wellbeing Health and safety risks of residents outside in very high summer temperatures. Predicted increase in skin cancers/ melanomas, sun burn and eye damage (cataracts) Sports events postponed / cancelled due to high winds / flooding. Increasing need to provide water / shading at outdoor events during higher temperatures. Risk of subsidence / flooding of infrastructure Change in cultural landscape of Northamptonshire due to the survival of exotic species. Native species eg. Those that require frosts to reproduce become extinct in milder conditions affects local heritage / culture. Reduction in air quality due to prolonged higher summer temperatures Reduced health risks eg. obesity due to increased opportunity for outdoor activities Increased risk of skin cancer in hotter summer temperatures Flooded / subsided buildings leading to closures of education / sports centres Reduction in air quality due to stagnant air conditions in higher temperatures affecting human health Increased opportunity for outdoor activities / exercise in milder winters and warmer summers

10 Appendix 2: Detail of Sustainable Community Strategy objectives used to identify potential climate change risks 1. To be successful through sustainable growth and regeneration by ensuring that: 1. 1 Residents live in housing that is sustainable, affordable and of good quality. o New materials and technology using sustainable construction methods o Manage water, waste and energy sustainably o Protect communities from flooding o A mix of homes - some affordable for first-time buyers 1.2 We have the right infrastructure such as roads and health service provision to deal with new growth o New infrastructure must accommodate large increase in population o Must provide public transport facilities and cycle/footpaths to reduce number of cars on roads eg. smartcards project o Improve links to London and other cities o Develop Northamptonshire s town centres and main rural locations making use of community facilities and protecting heritage. 1.3 We can improve and preserve buildings and the countryside for future generations o Reduce carbon emissions through buildings regulations and fuel efficiency targets o Sustainable building o Transport o Accessibility o Waste management increase amount of waste recycled o Improve public/green spaces and facilities 2. To develop through having a growing economy with more skilled jobs where: 2. 1 We encourage and support employers to create the right number, quality and distribution of jobs o We are already supporting employers with a need to focus and creative enterprises o Bring more intelligent and creative people to live and work here o Encourage investment in the main towns in Northamptonshire o Create a nationally important office centre o Increase the number of quality attractions in Northamptonshire e.g. hotels, restaurants and conferences o Preserve our traditional attractions such as the landscape and heritage

11 2.2 Workers have the right skills to respond to the employment needs of a dynamic economy o Encourage graduates from the University of Northampton to stay in the area o Encourage school leavers to stay in education o Improving and increasing the range of opportunities and options available 2.3 Residents have the opportunity to learn throughout their lives. o Start preparing people from a young age o Train young people to be good workers o Need high performance and well managed schools o In future there will be more old people will encourage them to work longer o Will develop the university of Northampton s role creating small campuses around the county to allow more people to access higher level learning 3. To have safe and strong communities where: 3.1 Residents will have a shared identity and will be involved in developing their communities o Planned growth that leads to lively and safe places, promotes better health, uses resources well and has a small effect on the environment o Get people actively involved in developing and running their communities o Need more people of all ages to take part in community activities o Want voluntary and community organisations to provide public services o Will encourage more people to volunteer 3.2 We will work to reduce crime in all our neighbourhoods o Work to reduce crime with safer community teams and crime and disorder reduction partnerships o Two main issues in Northamptonshire are preventing crime and protecting the public o Preventing crime will focus on youth crime, antisocial behaviour, business crime, and drug and alcohol related crime o Protecting the public will focus on domestic abuse, hate crime reducing road accidents and preventing violent extremism 3.3 We will provide services that people need o Want children to be involved in providing services o Will research the different communities in Northamptonshire to find out their needs

12 4. To have safe and strong communities where: 4.1 Vulnerable people will be supported when necessary to help them lead a fulfilling life o Help people and their families maintain their health and wellbeing o The following agencies are responsible for keeping families healthy-local authorities, Housing, Education, Employment, Health care, Voluntary and Community organisations o Will help people live independently at home using local services to provide medical support 4.2 We will help young people to prepare for adulthood o Will develop children s centres and provide better services through schools o To concentrate on those with mental health difficulties or disabilities or from disadvantaged backgrounds 4.3 Residents will have more choice to improve their health and wellbeing o Will teach people to live healthily e.g. making people do more exercise, encourage health eating etc o Help families keep their children healthy by encouraging cycling and walking by providing walking and cycling routes, good quality leisure, sport and cultural facilities o Will advertise our heritage, arts, sports and recreational activities locally regionally and nationally and develop cultural centres o Over the next 10 to 20 years we will develop infrastructure so more people can take part in culture and sport

13 Sophie Lawrence and Jonathan Newton East Midlands - Climate Adaptation Project Officers March 2010 For more information on NI188 Adapting to Climate Change please contact: Alison Parry Head of Environmental Policy Northamptonshire County Council Tel aparry@northamptonshire.gov.uk