WINTER OUTLOOKS. ENTSO-E and ENTSOG

Transcription

1 WINTER OUTLOOKS ENTSO-E and ENTSOG 1 December 2016 Webinar Moderator: Claire Camus Presenters: Alban Joyeau, Daniel Huertas Hernando (ENTSO-E), Arturo De Onis, Louis Watine (ENTSOG)

2 PROGRAMME 1. Introduction 2. Electricity Winter Outlook 3. Gas Winter Outlook 4. Gas disruption sensitivity 5. Questions 6. Conclusion Page 2

3 SETTING THE SCENE The ENTSOs Winter and Summer Outlooks Analyse in a detailed & consistent way the main adequacy risks within a season EU legal obligation Subject to an ACER opinion Page 3

4 WHAT DO THE OUTLOOKS & REVIEWS TELL YOU? Role of interconnection Influence of external factors: weather, market conditions, consumer behaviour Sensitivity analysis: look for worst case scenario & see how network reacts Review: deeper understanding of the previous season Page 4

5 WHERE TO FIND THEM? Page 5

6 Introduction Electricity Winter Outlook Gas Winter Outlook Gas disruption sensitivity

7 DIFFERENT RISKS ADDRESSED AT DIFFERENT TIMES SOR / WOR UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MAF Short term Mid term 6 months 1 year 5 years 10 years Operational decisions Investment decisions Policy decisions Page 7

8 ENTSO-E SEASONAL OUTLOOKS STEPWISE APPROACH Collect inputs from TSOs Build pan-european worst-case scenarios At peak time (upward adequacy) => Wednesdays 7 pm At low demand time + high RES (downward adequacy) => Sundays 5 am & 11 am Focused analysis of regions potentially at risk Probabilistic approach using a lot of situations (temperature, wind...) Aim is to be able to say with how much probability an issue could occur The parameters driving the issues are identified Page 8

9 EVOLUTION OF THE GENERATION MIX Page 9

10 ENTSO-E WINTER OUTLOOK 2016/17 KEY FINDINGS The analysis shows that all considered, even if the situation in France will be tense, Europe has sufficient generation to meet normal and severe demand conditions in the winter of 2016/2017. France facing lowest nuclear power generation in 10 years Tense situation in France from early December to early February in case of a severe cold wave Possible repercussions on several neighbouring countries, but TSOs anticipating appropriate measures Page 10

11 Daily Average Temperature [ C ] ENTSO-E WINTER OUTLOOK SITUATION FOR FRANCE (WEEK 2) France - Week 2 No import needed No deficit after import Deficit after import: 0 to 2 GW Deficit after import: 2 to 4 GW Risk in case of severe cold wave (source: mid October 2016 data) Wind Capacity Factor Page 11

12 HOW TO KEEP SYSTEM SAFE FOR THE CONSUMERS? Knowledge sharing & cooperation at European level essential to maintain safe system Example of possible gradual measures to maintain the supply that operators can use Structural grid reinforcement internally & cross border Local optimisation of the grid Extra generation reserves Demand Response Voltage lowering Local power cuts EXCEPTIONAL MEASURES Page 12

13 Why Winter (Supply) Outlook? Electricity: approach and results Gas: approach and results Gas disruption sensitivity

14 ENTSOG Winter Outlook - Two visions 1. Whole winter Reference Winter TSOs inputs: Average year demand and National Production as foreseen 30% target for UGS inventory level on 1st April Cold Winter Demand deviation (+10% at EU level) and Peak National Production No target for UGS inventory level 2. High demand situations 1-day Design Case (31 January) and 2-week Cold Spell (15-28 February) Ukraine transit disruption assessed for these high demand situations Page 14

15 ENTSOG Winter Outlook - Assumptions and input data Main Assumptions UGS inventory level on 1st October from AGSI platform Supply assumptions based on last five winters Exports to Ukraine: 310 GWh/d average Other exports: Turkey and Russia (Saint Petersburg and Kaliningrad) Cooperative model under curtailments Page 15

16 ENTSOG Winter Outlook - Assumptions and input data UGS inventory level on 1st October Starting UGS inventory level: EU-average 91 % Page 16

17 ENTSOG Winter Outlook - Results for the whole winter Supply and Demand in Reference and Cold Winter For both Reference and Cold winters storages are the main contributors adapting to the demand Flexibility mostly ensured by UGSs Page 17

18 ENTSOG Winter Outlook - Results for the whole winter UGS Inventory Level Evolution For a Reference winter the supply flexibility should allow to achieve a 30 % target level on 1st April In case of a Cold Winter storage withdrawals could lead to a 16 % inventory level Current Aggregated UGS Level 01/12/2016: 83% Page 18

19 ENTSOG Winter Outlook - High demand situations No Demand curtailment and high remaining flexibility Low remaining flexibility in Finland and Sweden The lower remaining flexibility in France North during the Peak Day is explained by lower withdrawal capacity compared to the previous winter 1-day Design Case 2-week Cold Spell Page 19

20 Why Winter (Supply) Outlook? Electricity: approach and results Gas: approach and results Gas disruption sensitivity

21 ENTSOG Winter Outlook - Ukraine transit disruption Assessment of the Ukraine transit disruption Reminder: Cold Winter (increasing demand = reference winter +10% at EU level) Peak-Day (national design case for gas demand, taking place in 1 January) 2-week Cold Spell (14-day period demand, taking place February) Disrupted Demand: Share of gas demand that cannot be satisfied Households and social services are protected customers and shall be the last to be disrupted ( Reg. (EU) No 994/2010 ) In case of potential gas disruption, industrial consumers and power producers are expected to reduce their consumption and/or switch to alternative fuels driven by market incentives (high gas prices). Page 21

22 ENTSOG Winter Outlook - Ukraine transit disruption Low flexibility in South-Eastern Europe More countries share the demand curtailment as a result of the cooperative modelling but at a lower disruption rate Bulgaria, FYROM, Romania, Greece, Bosnia, Hungary, Serbia face demand curtailment under high demand situations 1-day Design Case 2-week Cold Spell FID projects will help mitigate the situation in the coming years Page 22

23 Ukraine transit disruption: impact on electricity South-Eastern Europe electricity system robust In the case of a Ukraine gas transit disruption, the electrical system adequacy and security can be maintained in spite of a high demand (design case) and potential disruption of gas for power generation. Page 23

24 Electricity and gas Winter Outlooks Questions/ Answers Page 24

25 KEY TAKEAWAYS Winter outlooks are not only a legal mandate They inform TSOs, markets, policy makers, public + contribute to right decisions being taken for security of supply! They are continuously improving They illustrate cooperation between gas & electricity Page 25

26 WHAT ABOUT THE FUTURE? Clean Energy For All Europeans package includes a revision of the EU directive on security of supply Electricity Regional Security Coordinators to take a greater role in security analysis ENTSO-E and ENTSOG Winter Outlook updates where needed Page 26

27 Thank you for your attention Page 27