2012 U.S. ELECTIONS. Sara Taylor Fagen October 10, 2011

Transcription

1 2012 U.S. ELECTIONS Sara Taylor Fagen October 10, 2011

2 Overview ate of the U.S. Political Environment the President going to be Re Elected? ho s going to win the GOP nomination? hat does the Future Hold for American Politics?

3 The Last 3 Cycles Have Resulted in 3 Change Elections in a Row US Senate * Senate Independents Caucus with Dems

4 3 in 4 Americans Believe U.S. is on the Wrong Track

5 Public Trust in Government

6 Confidence in Institutions

7 Will 2012 Be Another Change Election? Key Factors Influencing the 2012 Presidential Election: 1. U.S. Economy 2. President Obama / Democratic Base 3. The GOP Nominee 4. Money 5. Geo Political Environment

8 Economy By Far The Most Important Issue

9 Unemployment As of September 2011, Unemployment is at 9.1 %

10 Average Unemployment Among Winning and Losing Incumbent Presidents

11 Univ. Of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Incumbents September of Election Year Losers Winners Today

12 Misery Index During an Election Year

13 Optimism about the Prospects for the Next Generation s Future is Down 18 Points Since December 2010

14 President s Approval Rating Less than 50% * Gallup average as of Sept 29 Oct 1, 2011

15 Approval Rating Among Incumbents in October of an Election Year

16 12% Congressional Approval Rating at Record Low (September 16, 2011)

17 Both Congress and The President s Job Approval Rating Less than 50% RCP Average

18 Generic Ballot Republicans vs. Democrats

19 America Remains a Center Right Country polling data shows conservatives were a greater percentage of the electorate than ny time since at least 1976.

20 Can the President Turn Out His Base? it polling shows that during the 2010 Midterm elections, turnout was down ong the Democrats core voter groups young people ages 18 29, African ericans, & Latinos

21 There Has Been a Drop in the White Vote Share of Total Voters in Presidential Elections Since 1992

22 The GOP Candidate Narrowed Field 8 Candidates July September Now* Mitt Romney Herman Cain Rick Perry Ron Paul Newt Gingrich Michelle Bachmann Rick Santorum Jon Huntsman Other/No Opinion * October 2, 2011 Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll September 29 October 2, 2011

23 Will it Come Down to Romney vs. Perry? Recent Polling Data

24 But What About Herman Cain? 70% of those who saw the debates say the more they learn about Herman Cain, the more they like him. Among tea party supporters, Cain s support has surged from 5% to 30% in a month. Regardless of whom you might support, would you say that the more you hear about.

25 Support for Tea Party has Declined to 25% (September 2011)

26 eline May 13 th May 21 st Herman Ron Paul Cain announces announces GOP SC May 23 rd Pawlenty officially enters race June 2 nd Romney June 6 announces th Santorum announces Announcement Date Presidential Drop out Date June 20 th Huntsman announces Straw Poll Date August 11 th Fox News Ames Debate August 13 th Ames Straw Poll Primary Date August 13 th Perry announces August 14 th Pawlenty d out of race y 2011 May 11 th Gingrich announces ember 7 th an Library te June 13 th CNN NH Debate September 12 th CNN Tea Party Express Debate June 2011 July/ August 2011 June 27 th Bachmann announces October 11 th WAPO Bloomberg Debate November 9 th CNBC Debate December 10 th ABC News/Iowa GOP Debate End of Dec Caucus Prima ember 2011 October 2011 November/December 2011 ber 22 nd ws/google September 24 th Florida GOP Straw Poll ry 12 th Des Moines Register / PBS / be GOP Debate October 18 th CNN/Western Leadership Debate October 17 th Nevada GOP Straw Poll January 30 th FOX News / Iowa GOP Debate November 5 th Illinois GOP Straw Poll March 6 th Super Tuesday January 2012 February 2012 March th NV Caucus January 19 th CNN / Southern GOP Leadership Conference Debate January 21 st SC Primary January 31 st FL Primary March 5 th Reagan Library Debate

27 Obama Loses a Net of 6 Electoral Votes 08, Obama won with 365 electoral votes. After redistricting, these states will only esent 359 electoral votes. ma States ing or Losing toral Votes: AK 3 CA 55 WA 11 OR 7 NV 5 ID 4 AZ 10 UT 5 MT 3 WY 3 NM 5 CO 9 ND 3 SD 3 NE 5 CD2 TX 34 KS 6 OK 7 MN 10 IA 7 MO 11 AR 6 LA 9 WI 10 MI 17 IL 21 MS 6 IN 11 TN 11 AL 9 KY 8 OH 20 GA 15 WV 5 SC 8 PA 21 VA 13 NC 15 NY 31 VT 3 NH 4 NJ 15 DE 3 MD 10 DC 3 ME 4 CT 7 RI 4 FL 27 HI 4 Obama (2008: 365 electoral votes)

28 2012 Battleground States WA-9 OR-7 ID-4 MT-3 WY-3 ND-3 SD-3 MN-10 WI-10 MI- 16 NY-29 ME -4 VT-3 NH -4 MA-11 RI AK-3 CA-55 NV-6 UT-6 AZ-11 NM-5 CO-9 NE-5 KS-6 OK-7 IA-6 MO-10 AR-6 IL-20 WV- 5 VA-13 IN- 11 TN-11 KY-8 OH-18 PA-20 NC-15 SC-9 RI-4 NJ CT-7 NJ-14 DEMD-10 MDDE-3 DC-3 TX-38 LA-8 MS-6 AL-9 GA-16 FL Safe/Likely Dem 3 Lean Dem Source: Real Clear Politics / Sara Taylor Fagen Analysis HI Toss Up 4 Lean GOP Safe/Likely GOP

29 Conclusion Historically, very consequential period for the U.S. Facing unprecedented fourth change election in a row; politics remains tumultuous. Obama s in trouble today, but election still 13 months away. Watch for more twists and turns in the GOP race. Major Gov t reform coming means there will be big winners and b losers

30 Sara Fagen, Partner