Regional Electricity Forecasting

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1 Regional Electricity Forecasting presented to Michigan Forum on Economic Regulatory Policy January 29, 2010 presented by Doug Gotham State Utility Forecasting Group

2 State Utility Forecasting Group Began developing its energy forecasting models 25 years ago Released its 12 th set of Indiana electricity projections in December Does not have a forecasting model for Michigan or the region

3 Energy information Administration (EIA) EIA uses its National Energy Modeling System to produce long-term forecasts on an annual basis Finest level of detail is the census region East North Central region IL, IN, MI, OH, WI

4 EIA 2010 Annual Outlook Electricity consumption forecast for the period (average compound growth rates) for East North Central region residential 0.49% commercial 1.20% industrial 0.44% all sectors 0.74%

5 Questions How much variation might we expect between individual states in the region? What factors are likely to cause those variations? How does this forecast compare to recent growth in electricity usage?

6 Typical Drivers of Electricity Residential Usage demographics, personal income, energy prices Commercial floor space, employment, demographics, energy prices Industrial manufacturing output, employment, energy prices

7 Data Sources Bureau of Economic Analysis (Commerce) personal income, gross domestic product Bureau of Labor Statistics (Labor) employment Bureau of the Census (Commerce) population Energy Information Administration (Energy) electricity prices, electricity sales

8 Data Presentation Historical trends are normalized to 2000 values to show how each state has changed over time Most recent year available varies depending on data source

9 Population Illinois.Indiana.Michigan.Ohio.Wisconsin

10 Total Real Personal Income Illinois Indiana Michigan Ohio Wisconsin

11 Commercial Employment Illinois Indiana Michigan Ohio Wisconsin

12 Manufacturing Employment Illinois Indiana Michigan Ohio Wisconsin

13 Real Gross Domestic Product Illinois Indiana Michigan Ohio Wisconsin

14 Real Electricity Prices Illinois Indiana Michigan Ohio Wisconsin

15 2008 All Sector Electricity Retail Price (cents/kwh) MI 8.94, rank # WV WY ID KY UT WA NE ND MO IA IN SD OR KS AR MT MN OK SC NC VA TN NM OH AL CO GA MI MS WI AZ IL PA LA US-TOTAL NV FL TX VT DE CA MD DC ME NJ NH AK RI MA NY CT HI

16 EIA Sales Data Caveats EIA reports historical sales but forecasts consumption self and co-generation will show up in consumption but not in sales EIA reclassified its other category in 2003, moving the energy into commercial, industrial, and transportation There are questionable data points

17 Residential Electricity Sales Illinois Indiana Michigan Ohio Wisconsin

18 2008 Residential Electricity Sales (million MWh) DC AK VT WY RI HI ND ME NH SD DE MT NM ID UT NE WV NV CT KS IA AR CO MS MA OR OK WI MN MD KY LA NJ SC AL AZ IN MI MO WA TN VA IL NY OH PA GA NC CA FL TX

19 Commercial Electricity Sales Illinois Indiana Michigan Ohio Wisconsin

20 2008 Commercial Electricity Sales (million MWh) VT AK HI RI ME SD DE WY ND NH MT ID WV NM DC NV NE UT AR IA MS CT KS OR OK KY CO SC AL MN LA WI IN MA TN WA MD AZ MO MI NJ NC GA VA OH PA IL NY FL TX CA

21 Industrial Electricity Sales Illinois Indiana Michigan Ohio Wisconsin

22 2008 Industrial Electricity Sales (million MWh) DC RI AK VT NH SD DE ME ND HI CT MD MT NM UT ID MA WY NE NJ KS AZ OR NV CO NY WV OK MS AR MO VA FL IA WA MN WI LA NC SC MI GA TN AL IL KY PA IN CA OH TX

23 All Sector Electricity Sales Illinois Indiana Michigan Ohio Wisconsin

24 2008 Total Electricity Sales (million MWh) VT AK RI HI SD NH ME DE DC ND MT WY NM ID UT NE CT WV NV KS IA AR MS OR CO MA OK MD MN WI AZ LA NJ SC MO WA AL KY TN MI IN VA NC GA NY IL PA OH FL CA TX

25 Electricity Sales RES COM IND TOTAL Illinois 1.93% 2.10% 1.33% 0.89% Indiana 2.16% 2.31% 0.10% 1.13% Michigan 1.39% 1.04% -1.69% 0.12% Ohio 1.75% 1.88% -2.87% -0.45% Wisconsin 1.23% 3.15% -0.73% 0.92% Region 1.74% 1.97% -0.95% 0.42% - Average compound growth rates - Reclassification of other sales inflates commercial & industrial growth rates somewhat but does not affect residential & total (Illinois is most significantly affected) - Development of new self and co-generation deflates industrial & total growth rates (Ohio?)

26 Comparison of History to Forecast for the Region Historical sales ( ) Forecast consumption ( ) residential 1.74% commercial 1.97% industrial -0.95% total 0.42% residential 0.49% commercial 1.20% industrial 0.44% total 0.74%

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