Florida 1/1/2015 Workers Compensation Rate Filing

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1 Florida 1/1/2015 Workers Compensation Rate Filing Kirt Dooley, FCAS, MAAA October 14,

2 $ Billions Florida s Workers Compensation Premium Volume Direct Written Premium p Private Carriers Group Self Insureds Individual Self Insureds p Preliminary Source for Private Carriers: NAIC Annual Statement data, state page, line 16 Workers Compensation 2

3 Florida s Historical Rate Changes Percent Emma Murray-Related 5.0 No Filing Cumulative 10/2003 1/2015: -57.5% Calendar Year *Pending 3

4 Current Average Voluntary Pure Loss Costs Using Florida s Payroll Distribution Pure Loss Cost All Classes FL AL GA NC SC TN State Based on the latest NCCI approved rates and loss costs in the various states 4

5 Workers Compensation Premium Rate Ranking Premium Rate Index per $100 of Payroll FL Ranking 24th lowest (out of 51) ND IN AR MA VA NV UT DC WV OR CO KY KS MS AZ TX MD MI OH GA WY NE AL FL HI NC SD IA WI TN MONM RI MNWA SC PA ID ME NH MT LA DE VT IL OK AK NY NJ CT CA Source: 2014 Oregon Workers Compensation Premium Rate Ranking Summary Indexes based on rates in effect on January 1,

6 Florida January 1, 2015 Workers Compensation Filing Summary of Proposed Rate Change Component Impact Change in Loss Experience 2.9% Change in Trend 2.3% Change in Benefits 0.8% Change in Production & General Expenses +0.7% Change in Loss Adjustment Expense 0.7% Change in Profit & Contingencies +2.9% Change in Taxes and Assessments 0.1% Total Average Rate Change 3.3% 6

7 Florida January 1, 2015 Workers Compensation Filing Changes by Industry Group* Proposed Change 1/1/2015 Cumulative Change** 10/1/2003 1/1/2015 Manufacturing 4.0% 55.7% Contracting 3.7% 59.2% Office & Clerical 2.1% 59.1% Goods & Services 3.4% 55.9% Miscellaneous 3.2% 55.6% Overall Average 3.3% 57.5% *Changes by industry group are preliminary estimates **Cumulative changes assume full approval of 1/1/2015 filing 7

8 Florida January 1, 2015 Workers Compensation Filing Summary of Proposed Rate Change Component Impact Change in Loss Experience 2.9% Change in Trend 2.3% Change in Benefits 0.8% Change in Production & General Expenses +0.7% Change in Loss Adjustment Expense 0.7% Change in Profit & Contingencies +2.9% Change in Taxes and Assessments 0.1% Total Average Rate Change 3.3% 8

9 Experience Period Two policy years are again used as the experience base in this year s filing This is consistent with the last three filings Policy year data reflects a more accurate matching of losses and premium Use of two calendar-accident years would have resulted in a change of 3.4% 9

10 Loss Development Average of paid and paid + case loss development Consistent with previous Florida filings Neither method clearly superior to the other Makes use of all available information Three-year average development factors Consistent with last four Florida filings Loss development factors relatively stable No changes to methodology with a material impact on the overall rate level change 10

11 Florida January 1, 2015 Workers Compensation Filing Summary of Proposed Rate Change Component Impact Change in Loss Experience 2.9% Change in Trend 2.3% Change in Benefits 0.8% Change in Production & General Expenses +0.7% Change in Loss Adjustment Expense 0.7% Change in Profit & Contingencies +2.9% Change in Taxes and Assessments 0.1% Total Average Rate Change 3.3% 11

12 Trend Summary The selected trends are based, in part, on a review of observed loss ratios for policies effective after Exponential Trend Fits Indemnity Loss Ratio Medical Loss Ratio (1) 5 point (PY ) 1.8% +1.5% (2) 6 point (PY ) 1.0% +1.5% (3) 7 point (PY ) 0.3% +1.4% (4) 8 point (PY ) 1.3% 0.1% (5) 9 point (PY ) 2.5% 1.3% (4) Current approved trend 1.0% +0.5% (5) Selected annual trend 2.0% 0.0% 12

13 Exponential Trend Fits 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 2% 5 point 6 point 7 point 8 point 9 point Selected 3% Indemnity Loss Ratio Medical Loss Ratio 13

14 Florida s Indemnity Loss Ratio Standard Coverage 0.5 Average of Paid and Paid+Case 0.4 Loss Ratio Policy Year Based on NCCI s financial data developed to ultimate and adjusted to the current level. 14

15 Florida s Indemnity Loss Ratio Standard Coverage 0.30 Average of Paid and Paid+Case 0.25 Loss Ratio Projected Policy Year Based on NCCI s financial data developed to ultimate and adjusted to the current level. 15

16 Florida s Medical Loss Ratio Standard Coverage 0.7 Average of Paid and Paid+Case 0.6 Loss Ratio Policy Year Based on NCCI s financial data developed to ultimate and adjusted to the current level. 16

17 Florida s Medical Loss Ratio Standard Coverage 0.50 Average of Paid and Paid+Case Loss Ratio Projected Policy Year Based on NCCI s financial data developed to ultimate and adjusted to the current level. 17

18 Florida s Total Loss Ratio (Excl. LAE) Standard Coverage Average of Paid and Paid+Case Loss Ratio The proposed rates assume that future loss experience will improve 8-Point Exponential Fit Proposed Rates Policy Year Based on NCCI s financial data developed to ultimate and adjusted to the current level. 18

19 Florida January 1, 2015 Workers Compensation Filing Summary of Proposed Rate Change Component Impact Change in Loss Experience 2.9% Change in Trend 2.3% Change in Benefits 0.8% Change in Production & General Expenses +0.7% Change in Loss Adjustment Expense 0.7% Change in Profit & Contingencies +2.9% Change in Taxes and Assessments 0.1% Total Average Rate Change 3.3% 19

20 Benefit Change Revisions to the Florida Workers Compensation Reimbursement Manual for Hospitals Service categories affected: Hospital Inpatient Hospital Outpatient Surgical Implants Estimated impact on medical costs = 1.1% Estimated impact on overall costs = 0.8% 20

21 Florida January 1, 2015 Workers Compensation Filing Summary of Proposed Rate Change Component Impact Change in Loss Experience 2.9% Change in Trend 2.3% Change in Benefits 0.8% Change in Production & General Expenses +0.7% Change in Loss Adjustment Expense 0.7% Change in Profit & Contingencies +2.9% Change in Taxes and Assessments 0.1% Total Average Rate Change 3.3% 21

22 Florida January 1, 2015 Workers Compensation Filing Summary of Proposed Rate Change Component Impact Change in Loss Experience 2.9% Change in Trend 2.3% Change in Benefits 0.8% Change in Production & General Expenses +0.7% Change in Loss Adjustment Expense 0.7% Change in Profit & Contingencies +2.9% Change in Taxes and Assessments 0.1% Total Average Rate Change 3.3% 22

23 Florida January 1, 2015 Workers Compensation Filing Summary of Proposed Rate Change Component Impact Change in Loss Experience 2.9% Change in Trend 2.3% Change in Benefits 0.8% Change in Production & General Expenses +0.7% Change in Loss Adjustment Expense 0.7% Change in Profit & Contingencies +2.9% Change in Taxes and Assessments 0.1% Total Average Rate Change 3.3% 23

24 Profit & Contingencies Provision In order to generate a total rate of return commensurate with the industry s cost of capital, the indicated P&C provision is 6.6% Based on an economic internal rate of return analysis Excludes anticipated policyholder dividends Cost of capital is approximately 10.5% Targeted P&C provision increased from 2.5% to 4.5% in the proposed filing 24

25 Profit & Contingencies Provision In past filings, NCCI limited the targeted P&C provision to 2.5% Unprecedented economic conditions have caused interest rates to remain near historic lows for an extended period This is expected to negatively impact the insurance industry s investment income for the foreseeable future In light of these conditions, NCCI is no longer limiting the targeted P&C provision to 2.5% 25

26 Florida January 1, 2015 Workers Compensation Filing Summary of Proposed Rate Change Component Impact Change in Loss Experience 2.9% Change in Trend 2.3% Change in Benefits 0.8% Change in Production & General Expenses +0.7% Change in Loss Adjustment Expense 0.7% Change in Profit & Contingencies +2.9% Change in Taxes and Assessments 0.1% Total Average Rate Change 3.3% 26

27 Florida January 1, 2015 Workers Compensation Filing Summary Over the past several years, total loss experience has been relatively stable A stable system still requires minor periodic adjustments to the average rate level Full approval is important to help maintain stable rates going forward 27

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