Australian Institute of Energy Canberra Branch. Wind Energy 2013 Technology and Market Update. David Millar Technical Director, Renewable Energy AECOM

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1 Australian Institute of Canberra Branch David Millar Technical Director, Renewable AECOM 2013 and Update September 24, 2013

2 AECOM Overview AECOM provides a blend of global reach, local knowledge, innovation and technical excellence in delivering solutions that create, enhance and sustain the world's built, natural, and social environments. 45,000 employees around the world A Fortune 500 company Serves clients in more than 140 countries Geographies: Africa Americas Asia Australia New Zealand Europe Middle East Member of the Clean Council Presentation Title September 25, 2013 Page 2

3 AECOM Business Lines Water & Infrastructure Services Building Engineering Planning, Design & Development Environment Minerals & Industry Transportation Program, Cost Consultancy Cost management Project management Waste management Water management Building services Building structures Applied research & sustainability Planning & urban development Ecological engineering Site remediation Environmental management Environment Air quality Mining Acoustics Economics, fire & risk social & EHS The Future of 9/26/2013 Heavy Page 3 industry cultural Facades services Sustainability Light industry Sustainable development Ground engineering Transmission & distribution Hydropower Geothermal Thermal & Solar Advisory Highways & Bridges Rail Ports and Marine Aviation Strategic Planning & Advisory Building surveying Property & specifications consulting Infrastructure & certification services Urban planning & access consulting

4 My experience AECOM Australia Pty Ltd January 2011 Present Technical Director Renewable Owner s Engineer, Development Phase Collector Farm, NSW (150 MW) [Ratch Australia Corporation] Owner s Engineer, Construction phase Bald Hills Farm, VIC (104 MW) [Bald Hills Farm P/L] Owner s/contractor s Engineer, Construction phase Gullen Range Farm, NSW (160 MW) [Goldwind Australia] Technical Consultant for Due Diligence review on two operating wind farms (140 MW) in South Australia. Owner s Engineer for 20 MW Morton s Lane Farm, VIC [Goldwind Australia]. GL Garrad Hassan 2001 January 2011 Owner s Engineer for a 160 MW wind farm in Thailand Owner s Engineer (wind turbines and wind farm electrical) for 70 MW Hallett Hill Farm ( ) - [SKM]. Bank s Engineer for 110 MW Waterloo Farm, South Australia ( ) [Roaring 40 s & Banks group]. Owner s Engineer (wind turbines and wind farm electrical) for 94 MW Hallett Farm ( ) [SKM]. Bank s Engineer for 61 MW Yeong Yang Farm, South Korea ( ) [BNP Paribas]. Bank s Engineer for 205 MW Collgar Farm, Western Australia (2008 current) [Investec & Banks group]. Bank s Engineer for 160 MW Lake Bonney Stage 2 Farm, South Australia (2006 current) [Infigen & Banks group]. Bank s Engineer for 80 MW Lake Bonney Stage 1 Farm, South Australia ( ) [Infigen & Banks group]. Owner s Engineer for the 70 MW Mt. Millar Farm (2005 current). [Tarong ].

5 Presentation Overview Global wind energy market and wind turbine technology present and future Global - capacity growth - Active markets - drivers - Globalisation of the industry Development - Main components of a turbine - Key technology developments in recent years - Potential future developments

6 Global Capacity Growth Global energy industry began to grow significantly in the early 90s Annual installed capacity globally has increased 20-30% per annum consistently Global cumulative wind energy capacity in 2012 was recorded at almost 300 GW making wind energy a key energy generation source

7 Global Active s Global generation is active today in over 79 countries, with 24 countries having more than 1,000 MW installed (Australia ~ 2500 MW to end 2012). Europe, North America and Asia are the largest markets. Yearly installed capacity in Europe has increased consistently since 2005, whereas capacity in Asia has increased significantly between 2009 and 2012.

8 Global Active s Global

9 Global Cumulative Offshore Installed Capacity Global

10 Forecasted Global Trends in Installed Global Global installed wind energy capacity is forecasted to continue grow at approximately 20%/annum (almost doubling in size in the 5 years) Asia is forecast to be the largest market in the near future

11 Key Drivers Globally Global National and state renewable energy targets, clean energy initiatives, carbon pricing, feed in tariffs, production tax credits (US) security wind energy provides security in energy supply for countries that would otherwise rely on importing and transporting fuels Decreasing prices for turbines ($/MWh) and BoP means that wind energy is competitive with new conventional generation in some countries

12 Globalisation of the Industry Global International corporations now manufacturing turbines General Electric (US) Siemens (Germany) Mitsubishi (Japan) Alstom (France) AREVA (France) Many Chinese turbine manufacturers in Top 10 Goldwind, Sinovel, Guodian United Power, Ming Yang 3 large Spanish companies involved: Gamesa, Acciona, Ecotecnia Manufacturers HQs in: Denmark, Spain, Germany, US, Japan, India Subsidiaries now in most major markets including: Brazil, USA, UK, Canada, China, India

13 Global

14 Components Global Source: Source:

15 Global Trends size and capacity has increased significantly in last 20 years Typical wind turbine capacity factors and energy yield are increasing consistently With power electronics, turbines have improved power quality, anti-islanding protection and fault ride through resulting in improved grid connectivity Increased focus on wind speed measurement and predictions Significant developments for On-shore and off-shore turbines

16 Global (Current and future) Generators Historically Fixed speed generator technologies - directly connected (no power electronics) squirrel cage induction generator. All power fluctuations transferred to the grid. Two speed generator technologies - low speed generator (smaller unit for low wind speeds) and a high speed generator (e.g. 4pole and 6pole generators) Current Variable slip generator technologies - Controllable resistance provides control of slip for larger generators, allowing absorption of fluctuations. Doubly fed induction generators (DFIG) - power can feed directly from the generator to the grid, or via IGBT converters, IGBT converters are rated for around 30% of the power (cheaper than full conversion) Variable speed / full conversion technologies - Full converted power electronics allows for speed control and improved grid connectivity (anti-islanding protection and fault ride through); however it does introduce harmonics. Full rated IGBT converters are expensive. Gearless generator technologies Enercon, Goldwind, Siemens Future With power electronics decreasing in cost and more emphasis on grid suitability, fully converted generators are thought to be preferred in the coming years Use of synchronous generators with full conversion is increasing (lighter weight, more efficient, no reactive power required) Direct drive vs. geared machines debate continues.

17 Global (Current and future) Towers Current Rolled steel tubular towers still common. Height trade off between high wind speeds and more expense. Nacelle mounted on tower with yaw drive teeth and gears. Towers brought to site on trucks Future New materials and tower shapes leading to restricted base diameters that are just as strong as stiff steel towers currently used. Pouring concrete towers on site help minimise transport issues. Slender concrete steel tower also helps with transportation

18 Global (Current and future) Blades Current Mostly fibre glass, epoxy composites. Bending loads taken by internal spar. Aerofoil shape varies from root to tip to maximise aerodynamic effect. Rotational speed limited by aerodynamic noise. Carbon fibre-reinforced load-bearing spars can reduce weight and increase stiffness. Future Using carbon fibres in 60 metre turbine blades is estimated to reduce total blade mass by 38% and decrease cost by 14% compared to 100% fibreglass. Aluminium and wood epoxy materials reduce weight of blades by 40% Siemens 75m blade (6MW SWT-6-154, rotor diameter 154m)

19 turbines - Future Global Onshore Significant technology advances driving down cost of energy dominated by turbines of MW rating Rotor diameters up to 160 m diameter, nacelle height 120 m soon to be in serial production Offshore Further growth in size of offshore turbines probable Manufacturers are now considering turbines in the range of MW Vestas speculates that 20 years from now, giant floating 20 MW wind turbines with rotors 250 metres in diameter could be a common sight across the world s deep ocean waters.

20 Thank You

21 Technologies Description Examples Comments Fixed speed Directly connected (no power electronics) squirrel cage induction generator Classic Danish turbine Vestas V82 (1.65 MW) Mitsubishi MWT-1000 (1MW) All power fluctuations transferred to the grid Units need to be small (as the size increased and units became more efficient less turbine resistance and therefore less slip to absorb fluctuations) Two speed Contains a low speed generator (smaller unit for low wind speeds) and a high speed generator (e.g. 4pole and 6pole generators) Vestas V82 (0.9MW/1.65MW) Siemens 82 (0.4MW/2.3MW) Suzlon S.66 (0.25MW/1.25MW) With a low speed generator audible noise is reduced Squirrel cage rotor is economical, robust and generally considered reliable Variable slip Wound rotor Controllable resistance (through power electronics) Vestas V80 Optislip (1.8 MW) Suzlon S.88 Flexi-slip (2.1 MW) Controllable resistance provides control of slip for larger generators, allowing absorption of fluctuations. Transient torques and stresses are reduced. Variable speed -Full conversion Power electronics (all power goes through the converters). Induction or synchronous generators can be use. Siemens SWT (2.3MW) Siemens SWT (3.6MW) Synchronous, permanent magnet generators: GE (2.5MW) Vestas GridStreamer (2MW) Vestas V112 (3MW) Higher cost (full rated IGBT converters). Induction generators are preferred to directly connected models due to slip allowance, however if power is fully converted synchronous generators can be used (generally more efficient, no reactive power control needed). Use of power electronics does introduce harmonics. Full converted power electronics allows for anti-islanding protection and fault ride through. Gearless wind turbines Large diameter synchronous, full converted generator. Enercon Goldwind Siemens DFIG units Doubly fed wound rotor induction (or asynchronous) generator power can feed directly from the generator to the grid, or via IGBT converters Vestas V80 (2MW) Vestas V90 (3 MW) Vestas V120 (4.5MW) Gamesa G90 (2MW) GE 1.5s (1.5MW) REpower MD70 (1.5MW) IGBT converters are rated for around 30% of the power (cheaper than full conversion) Widely used today

22 Operating Farms in ACR Project Operating Companies Location Commenced Operation Capacity (MW) Capital Farm Crookwell Farm Cullerin Range Farm Suzlon S88 2.1MW turbines Hub height: 80m Rotor diameter: 88m Vestas V44-600kW Hub height:45m Rotor diameter: 44m REpower 8 MM82 2 MW 7 MM92 2 MW Gunning Farm Acciona AW 1500 Hub height: 76m Infigen Bungendore, NSW Eraring Origin Acciona 10 km south of Crookwell, NSW 12 km east of Gunning, NSW 15 km north-east of Gunning, NSW Woodlawn Farm Suzlon S88 2.1MW Infigen Bungendore, NSW Total Capacity of Operating Projects 269