Industrial Power Control

Transcription

1 Industrial Power Control Investor and Analyst Call 24 March 2014 Dr. Helmut Gassel Division President Industrial Power Control (IPC)

2 Agenda IPC Segment Overview Growth Drivers and Market Opportunities `Product to System` Approach Improves Customers Systems Summary Disclaimer: This presentation contains forward-looking statements about the business, financial condition and earnings performance of the Group. These statements are based on assumptions and projections resting upon currently available information and present estimates. They are subject to a multitude of uncertainties and risks. Actual business development may therefore differ materially from what has been expected. Beyond disclosure requirements stipulated by law, does not undertake any obligation to update forward-looking statements. Page 2

3 Agenda IPC Segment Overview Growth Drivers and Market Opportunities `Product to System` Approach Improves Customers Systems Summary Page 3

4 Robust Business Modell; Margin Back to High-Teens Level Revenue and Segment Result development [EUR m] -9% -10% FY11 : 797 FY12 : 728 FY13 : Q1 FY11 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 FY12 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 FY IPC revenue IPC Segment Result SR margin Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 FY14 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% From Q4 FY11 to Q1 FY13 longest downturn for IGBT business ever; driven by overstocking of European customers and Chinese market cool-down. Page 4

5 Diverse Customer Base Across All Regions and Applications Major customers Revenue split by region 1) APAC (incl. Japan) 44% EMEA 44% Americas 12% 1) Based on revenues by fulfillment region for FY Distribution partners 2) 2) 34% of FY13 revenue was attributable to distributors. Page 5

6 IPC Portfolio Addresses Applications Across a Broad Spectrum of Power Levels Energy generation solar PV inverter onshore wind offshore wind Energy transmission VSC = voltage source converter HVDC = high-voltage direct current HVDC VSC home appliances Energy consumption variable speed drive heavy construction vehicle data center 100 W 1 kw 10 kw 100 kw 1 MW 10 MW 100 MW 1 GW 10 GW train Driver ICs + Discretes Driver boards + IGBT modules Stacks ~0.1 kw ~10 kw ~1 kw ~1.6 MW ~100 kw ~10 MW Power level of applications and products are approximate. Page 6

7 Is a Leading IGBT Player, Especially in the Fast Growing China Market 2012 total IGBT market (modules and discretes) Mitsubishi total market size: $4.05bn 24.4% IGBT modules total market size: $3.01bn Discrete IGBTs total market size: $1.04bn 20.1% Mitsubishi 28.3% 19.4% Fuji Electric 12.5% 20.3% Fuji Electric 14.4% Semikron 6.2% Fuji Electric 11.8% Mitsubishi 13.0% Semikron 8.4% Fairchild 10.5% Fairchild 5.7% Hitachi 5.0% Renesas 10.2% Source: IHS, Power Semiconductor Discretes and Modules World 2013, December Page 7

8 Drives (incl. Pumps, Fans, Compressors) by Far Biggest Application Segment 2012 IGBT market by application ($4.06bn) Industrial Drives 38% Renewables 12% Traction 9% Consumer 15% Others 19% Automotive 7% Source: IHS, Power Semiconductor Discretes and Modules World 2013, December Page 8

9 Holds Dominant Position in Most Dynamic Markets EMEA and China 2012 market by region ($4.06bn) Growth of the regions (CAGR ) Japan 32.6% Rest of Asia 9.5% EMEA 24.4% Americas 6.6% China 26.9% EMEA Americas China Rest of Asia Japan World 0% 10% 20% Discrete IGBTs IGBT Modules China discrete IGBT market ($295m) China IGBT module market ($795m) 21.8% 27.8% Mitsubishi 14.3% Mitsubishi 14.0% Fairchild 14.1% Fuji Electric 12.5% Renesas 12.1% Semikron 9.6% Int. Rect. 10.1% Fairchild 7.9% Source: IHS, Power Semiconductor Discretes and Modules World 2013, December All figures refer to calendar year Page 9

11 Factory Automation: Huge Savings Possible with Variable Speed Drives (VSD) Savings potential of VSD 100% 42% 28% 25% ~10% As a percentage of worldwide electricity consumption. 100% The savings potential equals that of 220 nuclear power plants or 3bn tons of CO 2 annually! About 300 million electric motors are in use worldwide. 42% Rising electric energy cost and ErP (Energy-related Products) directive force energy efficiency. 66% 90% 30-50% Rising labor cost in low labor cost countries drives automation level. Mechanic goes electric ; e.g. hydraulic is replaced by electric motors. total electricity demand thereof energy needs of industry Source: ABB, thereof energy needs of electric motors thereof energy needs of uncontrolled motors thereof savings potential Page 11

12 Power Semiconductor Market for Renewables Should Grow Mid-single Digits New installations of PV and wind [GW] 80 CAGR (13-17) = +2.1% CAGR (13-17) = +8.9% 83 Wind: Increase in 2014 and 2015; Production tax credits (PTC) in the US will come to an end. Wind: China fastest growing region with CAGR of 3.9%. participates via Goldwind. PV: In 2013, China became the world s biggest PV market. has several local partners, e.g. Sungrow PV inverters* CAGR (13-17) = 12.7% Wind converters** * Source: IHS, PV Inverter Market Tracker, December ** Source: IHS, The World Market for Wind Converters World , January Page 12

13 Intercity and Metro Remain Biggest Markets with Highest Growth Rates Development of traction market [EUR m] 42, CAGR (11-16) = +3.4% 4.6% 4.2% 50, Urbanization ongoing; many regions still lack sufficient urban passenger transport. Intercity, Light Rail Vehicles and Metro will grow most. Global trade (freight transport) drives the use of electric locomotives. has biggest and fastest growing players as customers, e.g. Alstom, Bombardier, CNR, CSR and Siemens. 2.1% % % High-Speed Train Light Rail Vehicle E-Loc Intercity Metro Source: SCI Verkehr GmbH, The Worldwide Market for Railway Technology 2012, September Page 13

14 Increasing Inverterization Drives Power Semiconductors in Home Appliances IGBTs modules in home appliances [US$ m] CAGR (13-17) = 11.9% 748 1, Biggest home appliances market for IGBT modules is room air conditioning. Efficiency programs led and still lead to higher variable speed drive (VSD) penetration rate. Energy efficiency labeling key differentiator vs competition. Penetration of VSD [units m] CAGR electric motor-based home appliances % VSD penetration ~20% ~40% total VSD appliances % Source: IHS, Major Home Appliances World 2013, October Page 14

15 New Applications for IGBTs on the Rise Grid connection Hybrid bus Charger Trends High-voltage modules (4.5kV, 6.5kV) partly replacing thyristors for HVDC links, e.g. offshore wind park connection Higher efforts on load management and grid stability CO 2 emission reduction Noise and pollution reduction in inner city traffic Suburbs city center traffic on the rise Asia and Europe are the major areas of growth Onboard charger in pure EVs and plug-in HEVs Buildup of charger infrastructure along highways and in cities Buildup of infrastructure for inductive charging Page 15

16 Drives, Home Applicances and Others Show Strongest Growth Rates Drives Renewables Traction Home Appliances Others ~10% p.a. > 5% p.a. ~5% p.a. > 10% p.a. > 10% p.a. IPC: ~10% p.a. Page 16

18 New Generation RC-H5 IGBT Optimized for Induction Cooking Applications Application specific RC-H5 Improvements on component-level Advantages on system-level better thermal performance reduced power dissipation less stress on passive components higher system reliability better soft-switching capabilities reduce EMI (electromagnetic interference) less filtering requirements lower system cost Page 18

19 New Thermal Interface Material (TIM) Improves Customers System Reliability EconoPACK + coated with TIM Improvements on component-level TIM significantly reduces contact resistance between IGBT module and heat sink thereby helps optimize heat dissipation from IGBT module TIM applied during backend process Advantages on system-level higher power density greater reliability longer service life simplifies customers mounting and assembly processes Page 19

20 First IGBT Product to Ramp in Dresden on 300 mm Manufacturing Line in 2H FY mm thin wafer RC-D discrete IGBT First IPC product to ramp on 300 mm thin wafer technology: 3 rd generation RC-D IGBT. Target applications: induction cooking stoves, rice cookers, microwave ovens, and solar inverters. CoolMOS, OptiMOS and RC-D IGBT products will further increase utilization rate of Dresden 300 mm fab throughout FY15. Page 20

22 Summary Growth of ~10% p.a. appears plausible given growth potential of main applications. Leading position in all relevant regional markets. Penetration of new markets (e.g. grid infrastructure, hybrid buses, chargers) secures further growth. Sales in excess of 180m per quarter drive Segment Result margin exceeding 15%. Innovative products ensure sustainable earnings power. Product-to-System: we create value for customers through products specifically optimized for the requirements of their systems. We are the clear technology leader. Page 22

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24 Appendix 1: s Market Positions in 2012 Discrete IGBT Market EMEA ($221m) Americas ($59m) Int. Rect. 12.7% 52.1% Int. Rect. ON Semi Fairchild 14.5% 14.1% 31.3% Fairchild 11.4% STMicro 8.0% STMicro ABB 4.1% 3.7% Microsemi IXYS 7.4% 5.8% 4.3% Rest of Asia ($98m) Japan ($372m) Fairchild 25.1% Fuji Electric 40.3% Renesas 14.0% Mitsubishi 22.1% Toshiba 13.1% Renesas 14.7% Mitsubishi 11.6% Toshiba 8.4% Int. Rect. 11.1% Matsushita 4.9% 11.0% 2.6% Source: IHS, Power Semiconductor Discretes and Modules World 2013, December Page 24

25 Appendix 2: s Market Positions in 2012 IGBT Module Market EMEA ($768m) Americas ($290m) 30.3% 36.3% Semikron 19.2% Mitsubishi 19.4% Mitsubishi 15.8% Hitachi 10.7% Danfoss 6.9% Semikron 9.3% Fuji Electric 5.7% Fuji Electric 7.3% Rest of Asia ($207m) Japan ($953m) Mitsubishi 28.2% Mitsubishi 52.1% Semikron Fairchild 6.0% 14.3% 17.3% Fuji Electric Hitachi Toshiba Fairchild 18.5% 9.7% 7.4% 3.1% Fuji Electric 5,8% 1.9% Source: IHS, Power Semiconductor Discretes and Modules World 2013, December Page 25