German Association of the Automotive Industry

Transcription

1 German Association of the Automotive Industry

2 European CO2 approach and possible transfer to South Korea Dr. Martin Koers Head of Economic Policy and Climate Protection German Association of the Automotive Industry

3 Agenda 1. Development of overall European CO2-reduction target 2. CO2 emissions Korean versus European traffic sector 3. Transfer of European regulation to South Korean Market 4. Conclusion

4 Basic Principle of European CO2 Reduction Market average in 2006: ~160 g CO2/km CO2-reduction by Engine and Powertrain Technology (measured in NEDC) ~19% affordable reduction potential in Europe based on Impact Assessment 130 g CO2/km

5 EU market 2006 g CO 2 /km curb weight in kg European Fleet in 2006

6 EU market 2006: Market Line g CO 2 /km EU market : 160 g CO 2 /km : 1372 kg 50 curb weight in kg Average emissions per km in the EU 2006: 160 g CO 2 /km

7 EU reduction target 2015: 130 g CO2/km g CO 2 /km EU market % 2006: 160 g CO 2 /km EU Target 2015: 130 g CO 2 /km 2006: 1372 kg 50 curb weight in kg EU Target of 130 g CO 2 /km implies an overall reduction of 19 %

8 EU reduction target 2015: 130 g CO2/km g CO 2 /km EU market % EU 100% slope % -19% 2006: 160 g CO 2 /km EU Target 2015: 130 g CO 2 /km 2006: 1372 kg 50 curb weight in kg EU Target of 130 g CO 2 /km implies an overall reduction of 19 %

9 EU target 2015 and the 60 % slope g CO 2 /km EU market EU 100% slope 200 EU 60 % slope : 160 g CO 2 /km EU Target 2015: 130 g CO 2 /km : 1372 kg 50 curb weight in kg The final curve of the EU legislation was set with a 60 % slope. Therefore, heavier vehicles have to improve more in relation to lighter vehicles

10 Key Element of European CO2-Strategy: Not each manufacturer has to reach 130 g CO2/km 300 Porsche Derogation: Reduction of 25% of Average specific Emissions (2007) -25% Target approx. 220 g/km 200 BMW Group Daimler CO 2 fleet value in 2006 [g/km] Fiat -16% GM EU Fleetaverage g/km Ford Renault PSA -17% - 19% -14% -12% EU Goal 130 g/km Hyundai -21% -19% equal burden sharing VW Group -20% -25% -24% EU 60 % slope Size equals market share Curb weight [kg/vehicle]

11 Basic Principle of European CO2 Reduction Market average in 2006: ~160 g CO2/km CO2-reduction by Engine and Powertrain Technology (measured in NEDC) ~19% affordable reduction potential based on Impact Assessment 130 g CO2/km Complementary Measures Reaching Political Target 120g CO2/km Gear Shift Indicator Low Rolling Resistance Tyres Efficient Mobile Air Conditioner Tyre Pressure Monitoring System Light Commercial Vehicles Biofuels

12 Summary CO2 target finding Weight based approach is recommended. The target formula should use curb weight as parameter. In Europe, not each car has to reach 130 g CO2/km. This is the fleet average of the overall European market. Each car gets an individual target based on the calculated target function. The addition of the CO2 values of all cars sums up to 130 g CO2/km. European reduction target was based on an Impact Assessment. Based on this assessment, a reasonable reduction target of 19% via in-cycle technology was derived. To meet political target, further mandatory complementary measures will be introduced.

13 Agenda 1. Development of overall European CO2-reduction target 2. CO2 emissions Korean versus European traffic sector 3. Transfer of European regulation to South Korean Market 4. Conclusion

14 Comparison between Korean an European distance to target approach (2006 to 2015): Korea wants more than double the reduction of EU market CO2 g/km 190 g/km (2008) 160 g/km -19% 130 g/km g/km -32% (ACEA -37%) 140 g/km Korean and EU targets are not directly comparable, because of different fleet characteristics. Targets have to incorporate country- specific conditions.

15 Korean versus European traffic sector Key element of the EU s CO2 reduction is the sucess of Diesel (I) PC gasoline/ diesel share 2008 EU market PC gasoline/ diesel share 2008 Korean market 20% 55% 45% Gasoline Diesel Gasoline Diesel 80% High diesel share is indispensably needed to reach stringent EU targets in Numbers of EV are too small to sufficiently contribute to the target in 2012 to 2015.

16 Korean versus European traffic sector 2WD vs 4WD Korean and European market 2WD- 4WD EU market 2WD- 4WD Korean market 8% 30% 2WD 4WD 2WD 4WD 70% 92%

17 Korean versus European traffic sector Domestic Sales by Type in Europe and South Korea (2008) Small; 38,8 Executive; 12,3 Upper-Medium; 17 Small; 2,8 Mini; 11,6 Large; 18,2 Sales 2008: approx. 13 Mio Lower-Medium; 31,7 Sales 2008: approx. 1,3 Mio Medium; 50,4 Source: 2009 Annual Report Korean Automobile Industry, KAMA

18 Korean versus European traffic sector Product portfolio in EU and Korea (e.g.bmw) 7er 1% 5er 3% Xx 17% MINI 20% 7er 10% Xx 14% MINI 11% 1er 3% 1er 23% 3er 27% 3er 36% 5er 35% EU market (2008) market share of BMW small cars (MINI and 1 series) 43 % Korean market (2008) market share of BMW small cars (MINI and 1 series) 14 %

19 Summary market comparison of European and Korean market Harmonization is required with respect to country-specific conditions The fleet characteristic of the European and the South Korean market is totally different. The South Korean market shows significantly higher gasoline share significantly more 4WD cars significantly more large cars Due to the different fleet characteristic the starting point of finding a feasable reduction target is different Europe starts with an actual value of 160 g CO2/km in 2006 South Korea starts with an actual value of 205 g CO2/km The different market structure has to be taken into account when calculating the target to avoid market distortions

20 Agenda 1. Development of overall European CO2-reduction target 2. CO2 emissions Korean versus European traffic sector 3. Transfer of European regulation to South Korean Market 4. Conclusion

21 EU market 2006 g CO 2 /km EU market EU 2006: 160 g CO 2 /km 100 EU 2006: 1372 kg 50 curb weight in kg

22 Korea market 2006 compared to 2006 EU market g CO 2 /km EU market EU 2006: 160 g CO 2 /km 100 EU 2006: 1372 kg 50 curb weight in kg

23 Korea market 2006 compared to 2006 EU market g CO 2 /km Korea market 2006 EU Korea 2006: 205 g CO 2 /km 150 EU 2006: 160 g CO 2 /km 100 EU 2006: 1372 kg Korea 2006: 1400 kg 50 curb weight in kg Average emissions per km in Korea 2006: 205 g CO 2 /km

24 Conclusion: Transfer of European regulation to South Korean Market Market average in 2006: 205 g CO2/km CO2-reduction by Engine and Powertrain Technology ~19% reduction 166 g CO2/km

25 Summary Transfer of European regulation to South Korean Market Transfer of reasonable European 19% reduction target leads to 166 g CO2/km in South Korea! But: there are possibilities of further CO2 improvements which help to define a reasonable political target

26 Further Improvement of Co2 value Complementary Measure Market average in 2006: 205 g CO2/km CO2-reduction by Engine and Powertrain Technology 166 g CO2/km Complementary Measures Gear Shift Indicator Low Rolling Resistance Tyres Efficient Mobile Air Conditioner Tyre Pressure Monitoring System Light Commercial Vehicles Biofuels

27 What are Advanced Technologies? Advanced Technologies technologies for reducing CO2 not fully considered in the test cycle not part of the mandatory complementary measures In Europe so called Eco-Innovations

28 Example for Advanced Technologies LED & Solar Cells Light always means extra consumption. That is why efficient technologies have a great leverage here. Lights with light-emitting diodes (LED) are up to 20 times more efficient than using conventional lights. The regulations to date do not provide any incentives for bringing this technology onto the market quickly. LEDs (Light-Emitting Diodes) Solar Roof Integrated solar cells in glass roofs can supply electrical loads in the vehicle with power even when the ignition is switched off. Modern, thin-layer solar cells make it possible to use the increasing glass surface areas on vehicles with a high degree of efficiency. The draft Regulation does not so far envisage promotion of such technologies, however.

29 Further Improvement of Co2 value Advanced Technology Market average in 2006: 205 g CO2/km CO2-reduction by CO2 reduction within test methodology Engine and Powertrain Technology 166 g CO2/km Complementary Measures Gear Shift Indicator Low Rolling Resistance Tyres Efficient Mobile Air Conditioner Tyre Pressure Monitoring System Light Commercial Vehicles Biofuels Advanced Technologies Reasonable Political Target

30 Agenda 1. Development of overall European CO2-reduction target 2. CO2 emissions Korean versus European traffic sector 3. Transfer of European regulation to South Korean Market 4. Conclusion

31 Conclusion The ability to achieve the future Korean standards is depending on different factors: overall reduction target based on specific fleet characteristics testing methodology acceptance of all CO2 reduction technologies Achievable and competition neutral targets are preferred over derogations.

32 CO2 regulation of passenger cars in South Korea We kindly ask the South Korean Government for Korea Market Average in 2006: 205 g CO2/km CO2-reduction by 1. having in mind the difference of the European and South Korean market when introducing a CO2- regulation Change of test-cycle - X g CO2/km 2. setting of a reasonable CO2 target based on impact assessment specific for Korean market 3. definition of appropriate test-methodology In-Cycle Engine and Powertrain Technology - Y g CO2/km 4. alignment with EU Approach - Complementary Measures - Advanced Technologies (Eco-Innovations) - Implementing derogations for small volume manufacturers - Sufficient Lead Time Complementary Measures Advanced Technologies - Z g CO2/km - W g CO2/km Reasonable Target

33 Better results in Europe with Integrated Approach Combining efforts of all involved + including all cars on the road = Achieving environmental goals at lowest cost to society

34 Thank you for your attention!